Post by John Chanin on Oct 21, 2023 9:51:25 GMT
Buckinghamshire is entitled to an extra seat in the boundary review recently completed, primarily due to the continued growth not just of Milton Keynes but also Aylesbury, and this it. Most seats with ‘mid’ in their name represent parts of the country with no large towns, and usually containing territory from more than one district council, and this new seat is no exception. Buckinghamshire is now a unitary council, but the seat is constructed from parts of three former district councils, and three former constituencies. It also, most unusually for urbanised England, has no settlement whatever with a population of over 10,000. There are three small towns with populations of between 7000 and 8000, and a fourth with a population of just under 5000. The rest is villages and rural countryside, of which there is a lot. The seat is one of the most extensive by area in south-east England, as it stretches in a right-angled shape, from the edge of Buckingham down the border with Oxfordshire, and then along the Chiltern ridge across the whole width of the county to the gap in the Chilterns near Berkhampsted.
The seat can be divided into 2 parts. The larger part, amounting to about 60%, is in the vale of Aylesbury (which used to be the name of the District Council here). The vale is underlain by the Jurassic Kimmeridge clay, which provides fertile agricultural soil. In the north in a salient that extends north of the main A41 road there is pleasant flattish agricultural country, populated by up market country villages, like the splendidly named Marsh Gibbon. This conjures up pleasing visions of a troup of monkeys swinging in the trees above a boggy wasteland, but is in fact one of the most attractive of the villages, with fine stone houses. Nearby is Grendon Prison, infamous for its sex offenders, with a separate open prison alongside. South of the A41 the landscape is hillier and more wooded. The main settlement here is the curious large village of Haddenham, a tributary of Thame with a parkway station on the Chiltern line that connects London with Birmingham. The good transport connections may explain the many new housing developments here. In the far south-west corner, just north of Thame is the historic and pretty village of Long Crendon on the edge of Bernwood Forest which stretches into Oxfordshire. Straddling the A41 is Waddesdon, home to the Rothschild’s enormous chateau, and on the edge of Aylesbury is the brand new Berryfields development.
Nestling under the Chiltern ridge is the largest town in the seat, Princes Risborough. This is a rich and rather twee market town with some fine old buildings, and a population of 8000. Just to the north under the ridge is the prime minister’s country mansion of Chequers. Proceeding up the vale alongside the ridge you come to Stoke Mandeville, famous for its hospital specialising in spinal injuries, which supposedly was involved in the creation of the Paralympics. This is really a slightly detached part of Aylesbury, and was indeed in Aylesbury constituency prior to the boundary changes. South of here is the second of the small towns - Wendover, on the north side of the Tring gap which takes the West Coast mainline, the Grand Union Canal, and the main A41 road through the Chilterns. Wendover has a population of 7500, and was a historically important junction of the roads up the vale, and through the hills, but is something of a backwater these days, albeit an up market and pretty one. The whole of the Aylesbury vale section is very middle-class - almost wholly white (except for the Aylesbury suburbs), well educated with 50% managerial workers, mostly owner-occupied, and very Conservative. The Conservatives hold all the council seats in this area with the exception of a lone Green in Bernwood ward (Haddenham and surrounds).
The smaller half of the seat is the Chiltern Hills themselves, above the scarp slope. The chalk hills are not exactly the Alps, but rolling countryside, much less agricultural and full of small and very plush villages. At the western end is Stokenchurch on the M40 with its famous radio tower perched on the escarpment edge, visible for miles around. Above Princes Risborough is Lacey Green, and further east Great Hampden, in a sparsely populated area. The Hughenden valley in the far south looks to Wycombe. Coming in from the Chesham & Amersham seat is the Great Missenden area. The village itself is an old settlement on the main road and railway line , although there is no station there today, and has the usual modern additions on its outskirts. But the main settlement here is Prestwood, a couple of miles to the west, which is the third small town with a population of 7500. This is almost entirely new, with just a little inter-war development, and little trace of the small village which once was here, and has the feel of an overgrown commuter village, with few facilities, although it is quite a long way from Wycombe, and further from London. The ridge continues north eastwards, skirting the town of Chesham - indeed the ward is actually called Chiltern Ridges - with more small villages, to the county boundary overlooking the Hertfordshire salient containing Berkhampsted and Tring. The whole ridge is extremely prosperous and up market, even more so than the vale, and is monolithically Conservative.
Buckingham was a very safe Conservative seat, hidden somewhat recently as it was the seat of the Speaker John Bercow from 2010 to 2019. Bercow was first elected in 1997, and even then he was only a fraction short of 50% of the vote. The new MP is Greg Smith who was a London councillor with an amorphous job working in “marketing and design”. He has opted for this seat which takes a minority of his old constituency. Chesham & Amersham was also a very safe seat prior to the recent by-election won by the Liberal Democrats. And the rural part of Aylesbury seat kept it safely Conservative. There may be a few Labour votes in the Aylesbury suburbs, and Liberal Democrats in the countryside, but as expected this was one of the safest Conservative seats in the country when fought for the first time at the 2024 General Election.
Census data: Owner-occupied 77% (35/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (538th), social rented 11% (495th).
: White 91%(285th), Black 2%(273rd), South Asian 3%(285th), Mixed 3%(222nd), Other 2%(311th)
: Managerial & professional 51% (55th), Routine & Semi-routine 16% (551st)
: Degree level 43%(79th), Minimal qualifications 20%(527th)
: Students 5% (417th), Over 65- 21% (197th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 44% from Buckingham, 38% from Aylesbury, and 17% from Chesham & Amersham
It contains 39% of the Buckingham seat, 32% of the Aylesbury seat, and 17% of Chesham & Amersham
The seat can be divided into 2 parts. The larger part, amounting to about 60%, is in the vale of Aylesbury (which used to be the name of the District Council here). The vale is underlain by the Jurassic Kimmeridge clay, which provides fertile agricultural soil. In the north in a salient that extends north of the main A41 road there is pleasant flattish agricultural country, populated by up market country villages, like the splendidly named Marsh Gibbon. This conjures up pleasing visions of a troup of monkeys swinging in the trees above a boggy wasteland, but is in fact one of the most attractive of the villages, with fine stone houses. Nearby is Grendon Prison, infamous for its sex offenders, with a separate open prison alongside. South of the A41 the landscape is hillier and more wooded. The main settlement here is the curious large village of Haddenham, a tributary of Thame with a parkway station on the Chiltern line that connects London with Birmingham. The good transport connections may explain the many new housing developments here. In the far south-west corner, just north of Thame is the historic and pretty village of Long Crendon on the edge of Bernwood Forest which stretches into Oxfordshire. Straddling the A41 is Waddesdon, home to the Rothschild’s enormous chateau, and on the edge of Aylesbury is the brand new Berryfields development.
Nestling under the Chiltern ridge is the largest town in the seat, Princes Risborough. This is a rich and rather twee market town with some fine old buildings, and a population of 8000. Just to the north under the ridge is the prime minister’s country mansion of Chequers. Proceeding up the vale alongside the ridge you come to Stoke Mandeville, famous for its hospital specialising in spinal injuries, which supposedly was involved in the creation of the Paralympics. This is really a slightly detached part of Aylesbury, and was indeed in Aylesbury constituency prior to the boundary changes. South of here is the second of the small towns - Wendover, on the north side of the Tring gap which takes the West Coast mainline, the Grand Union Canal, and the main A41 road through the Chilterns. Wendover has a population of 7500, and was a historically important junction of the roads up the vale, and through the hills, but is something of a backwater these days, albeit an up market and pretty one. The whole of the Aylesbury vale section is very middle-class - almost wholly white (except for the Aylesbury suburbs), well educated with 50% managerial workers, mostly owner-occupied, and very Conservative. The Conservatives hold all the council seats in this area with the exception of a lone Green in Bernwood ward (Haddenham and surrounds).
The smaller half of the seat is the Chiltern Hills themselves, above the scarp slope. The chalk hills are not exactly the Alps, but rolling countryside, much less agricultural and full of small and very plush villages. At the western end is Stokenchurch on the M40 with its famous radio tower perched on the escarpment edge, visible for miles around. Above Princes Risborough is Lacey Green, and further east Great Hampden, in a sparsely populated area. The Hughenden valley in the far south looks to Wycombe. Coming in from the Chesham & Amersham seat is the Great Missenden area. The village itself is an old settlement on the main road and railway line , although there is no station there today, and has the usual modern additions on its outskirts. But the main settlement here is Prestwood, a couple of miles to the west, which is the third small town with a population of 7500. This is almost entirely new, with just a little inter-war development, and little trace of the small village which once was here, and has the feel of an overgrown commuter village, with few facilities, although it is quite a long way from Wycombe, and further from London. The ridge continues north eastwards, skirting the town of Chesham - indeed the ward is actually called Chiltern Ridges - with more small villages, to the county boundary overlooking the Hertfordshire salient containing Berkhampsted and Tring. The whole ridge is extremely prosperous and up market, even more so than the vale, and is monolithically Conservative.
Buckingham was a very safe Conservative seat, hidden somewhat recently as it was the seat of the Speaker John Bercow from 2010 to 2019. Bercow was first elected in 1997, and even then he was only a fraction short of 50% of the vote. The new MP is Greg Smith who was a London councillor with an amorphous job working in “marketing and design”. He has opted for this seat which takes a minority of his old constituency. Chesham & Amersham was also a very safe seat prior to the recent by-election won by the Liberal Democrats. And the rural part of Aylesbury seat kept it safely Conservative. There may be a few Labour votes in the Aylesbury suburbs, and Liberal Democrats in the countryside, but as expected this was one of the safest Conservative seats in the country when fought for the first time at the 2024 General Election.
Census data: Owner-occupied 77% (35/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (538th), social rented 11% (495th).
: White 91%(285th), Black 2%(273rd), South Asian 3%(285th), Mixed 3%(222nd), Other 2%(311th)
: Managerial & professional 51% (55th), Routine & Semi-routine 16% (551st)
: Degree level 43%(79th), Minimal qualifications 20%(527th)
: Students 5% (417th), Over 65- 21% (197th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 44% from Buckingham, 38% from Aylesbury, and 17% from Chesham & Amersham
It contains 39% of the Buckingham seat, 32% of the Aylesbury seat, and 17% of Chesham & Amersham
| Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Conservative | 33,321 | 61.5 | 20,150 | 37.3 |
| Liberal Democrat | 10,673 | 19.7 | 14,278 | 26.5 |
| Labour | 8,283 | 15.3 | 9,171 | 17.0 |
| Brexit/Reform | 469 | 0.9 | 6,926 | 12.8 |
| Green | 1,477 | 2.7 | 2,942 | 5.5 |
| Other | 484 | 0.9 | ||
| Majority | 22,648 | 41.8 | 5,872 | 10.9 |
