Post by John Chanin on Oct 20, 2023 10:38:25 GMT
There are four distinct parts to this very varied seat. The largest is the town of Kings Lynn, with a population of over 40,000, which accounts for 40% of the seat. The port at the mouth of the wide Great Ouse was a very important mediaeval town, and has some splendid old buildings to prove it. But modern Lynn is something of a backwater, with a rundown town centre, and is very much a working class town, with a majority of Labour councillors. The sizable amount of council housing is concentrated on the west of the town alongside the river, plus the Fairstead estate on the eastern edge, with routine workers substantially exceeding managerial throughout. In North Lynn just 15% have degrees, and 15% managerial jobs - exceptionally low figures even for a council estate ward. Gaywood to the north-east is predominantly owner-occupied, but not much better off, and the Liberal Democrats recently elected their first councillors in the seat for many a year here. The middle-class population is concentrated in the Springwood area to the east, where there is a small asian population, and in suburban Woottons to the north of the town, mostly new housing and owner-occupied.
The second largest component is a complete contrast. This is the holiday coast of north Norfolk, with around 15,000 voters, centred on the resort of Hunstanton, where there is a beach. Most of the settlements are a little inland, separated from the North Sea by marshes, protecting the low-lying land. These are attractive villages with typical Norfolk cobbled stone houses, like Brancaster and Burnham Market. The retired population is around 40% throughout this area, similar to the coast to the east, reaching a peak of 44% in Hunstanton itself. As would be expected from this, educational qualifications are not high, and there is quite a lot of private renting, as well as owner-occupation, but voting is solidly Conservative, and generally the only competition comes from independents. Just inland, and not far from Lynn, is the small town of Dersingham, with a population of 4500, adjacent to the heavily wooded king’s estate of Sandringham.
Another 13,000 voters come from inland and agricultural Norfolk, scattered among many small villages, mostly fairly workaday. At local level this is also Conservative voting, with many independents, but like other rural areas will be heavily Conservative at General Elections. The retired population is lower here, and managerial workers generally exceed routine, though educational qualifications remain low as is common in rural areas. Lastly there is a small section of fens, to the west of the Great Ouse, with a decidedly working-class, although predominantly owner-occupied, population. This has been expanded in the latest boundary changes, taking it right into the edge of Wisbech at Walsoken. This section has 12,000 voters, and is represented by Conservatives and conservative independents like the rest of the seat outside Lynn.
Overall as the statistics below show, the seat is distinctive for both its working-class nature and low educational qualifications, and its high numbers of retired people. In normal circumstances the retirement coast and the rural countryside outvote the town of Lynn, but this has not always been the case. Labour won the parliamentary seat in 1945, held it narrowly in 1950 by less than 300 votes, and then lost it in 1951, although the seat was more tightly drawn around the town in those days. After extension in 1974 which made it safe for the Conservatives, it was reduced again in 1983 to roughly its present boundaries. In 1997 however Labour made a surprise gain on a swing of over 10%, only for this to be one of the 5 seats lost back to the Conservatives in 2001. Subsequently the Labour vote collapsed, with the 13.3% in 2010 being the lowest Labour vote in the country for a seat won in 1997. They have recovered a bit since, with the usual decline in the Liberal Democrat vote, but there is no realistic prospect of a Labour win in the future. Despite the national landslide Labour didn’t even come close here in 2024. The result was unusual for a substantial increase in the Liberal Democrat vote in an untargeted seat, although they were still overtaken for third place by Reform, with their usual good performance on the east coast. Current MP, first elected in 2019, is James Wild, a former SPAD from Norwich originally.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (296/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (255th), social rented 15% (275th).
: White 95%(185th), Black 1%(425th), South Asian 1%(358th), Mixed 1%(463rd), Other 2%(347th)
: Managerial & professional 31% (491st), Routine & Semi-routine 35% (116th)
: Degree level 23%(523rd), Minimal qualifications 36%(58th)
: Students 4% (571st), Over 65- 26% (54th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 95% from NW Norfolk, and 5% from SW Norfolk
99% of the old seat is in the new one, with 1% going to South-west Norfolk
The second largest component is a complete contrast. This is the holiday coast of north Norfolk, with around 15,000 voters, centred on the resort of Hunstanton, where there is a beach. Most of the settlements are a little inland, separated from the North Sea by marshes, protecting the low-lying land. These are attractive villages with typical Norfolk cobbled stone houses, like Brancaster and Burnham Market. The retired population is around 40% throughout this area, similar to the coast to the east, reaching a peak of 44% in Hunstanton itself. As would be expected from this, educational qualifications are not high, and there is quite a lot of private renting, as well as owner-occupation, but voting is solidly Conservative, and generally the only competition comes from independents. Just inland, and not far from Lynn, is the small town of Dersingham, with a population of 4500, adjacent to the heavily wooded king’s estate of Sandringham.
Another 13,000 voters come from inland and agricultural Norfolk, scattered among many small villages, mostly fairly workaday. At local level this is also Conservative voting, with many independents, but like other rural areas will be heavily Conservative at General Elections. The retired population is lower here, and managerial workers generally exceed routine, though educational qualifications remain low as is common in rural areas. Lastly there is a small section of fens, to the west of the Great Ouse, with a decidedly working-class, although predominantly owner-occupied, population. This has been expanded in the latest boundary changes, taking it right into the edge of Wisbech at Walsoken. This section has 12,000 voters, and is represented by Conservatives and conservative independents like the rest of the seat outside Lynn.
Overall as the statistics below show, the seat is distinctive for both its working-class nature and low educational qualifications, and its high numbers of retired people. In normal circumstances the retirement coast and the rural countryside outvote the town of Lynn, but this has not always been the case. Labour won the parliamentary seat in 1945, held it narrowly in 1950 by less than 300 votes, and then lost it in 1951, although the seat was more tightly drawn around the town in those days. After extension in 1974 which made it safe for the Conservatives, it was reduced again in 1983 to roughly its present boundaries. In 1997 however Labour made a surprise gain on a swing of over 10%, only for this to be one of the 5 seats lost back to the Conservatives in 2001. Subsequently the Labour vote collapsed, with the 13.3% in 2010 being the lowest Labour vote in the country for a seat won in 1997. They have recovered a bit since, with the usual decline in the Liberal Democrat vote, but there is no realistic prospect of a Labour win in the future. Despite the national landslide Labour didn’t even come close here in 2024. The result was unusual for a substantial increase in the Liberal Democrat vote in an untargeted seat, although they were still overtaken for third place by Reform, with their usual good performance on the east coast. Current MP, first elected in 2019, is James Wild, a former SPAD from Norwich originally.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (296/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (255th), social rented 15% (275th).
: White 95%(185th), Black 1%(425th), South Asian 1%(358th), Mixed 1%(463rd), Other 2%(347th)
: Managerial & professional 31% (491st), Routine & Semi-routine 35% (116th)
: Degree level 23%(523rd), Minimal qualifications 36%(58th)
: Students 4% (571st), Over 65- 26% (54th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 95% from NW Norfolk, and 5% from SW Norfolk
99% of the old seat is in the new one, with 1% going to South-west Norfolk
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Conservative | 29,408 | 60.2 | 30,627 | 65.7 | 32,075 | 66.0 | 16,097 | 36.1 |
| Labour | 15,620 | 32.0 | 10,705 | 23.0 | 10,998 | 22.6 | 11,143 | 25.0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,393 | 2.9 | 3,625 | 7.8 | 3,779 | 7.8 | 6,492 | 14.6 |
| UKIP/Reform | 1,539 | 3.2 | 8,697 | 19.5 | ||||
| Green | 851 | 1.7 | 1,645 | 3.5 | 1,717 | 3.5 | 2,137 | 4.8 |
| Majority | 13,788 | 28.2 | 19,922 | 42.7 | 21,077 | 43.4 | 4,954 | 11.1 |