Post by John Chanin on Oct 20, 2023 8:48:01 GMT
The decline of the British seaside resort is something of a cliche, but in fact there have been three different results. Large towns, like Brighton and Bournemouth, which always had more to their economy than tourism, have successfully reinvented themselves and are prosperous and thriving. Small towns whose economy was based on tourism are on the other hand some of the most depressed areas in the country. But there is a third type of coastal area, typified by north Norfolk, which is comprised of villages full of retirees who are ever richer, and which are thriving, so long as there aren’t too many second home owners.
North Norfolk is an unusual seat, with an unusual political history. There are two parts to it. Firstly the long coast of north Norfolk, extending from Wells-next-the-sea in the west all the way round to Happisburgh and Waxham, just to the north of Yarmouth. The coast in the west is part of the marshy lowlands adjoining the Wash, full of bird sanctuaries, half of which is in north-west Norfolk. At Sheringham the marshes disappear, and there is a more conventional coast with beaches stretching to the east. Cromer (headquarters of the District Council) and Sheringham are seaside resorts, both with populations of just over 7000, and with the relatively high levels of private renting typical of such resorts. Both have escaped the worst decline of domestic tourism, although Cromer is far from its Victorian glory. All the rest are retirement villages. The whole area has over a third retired population, reaching a peak of over 40% in the villages both sides of Sheringham. Here almost half of voters are over 65. For those not retired, managerial jobs exceed routine, except in Cromer, but not by much. The elderly population means that educational qualifications are not high. Both age and qualifications have become more important factors in voting than class in recent years, and seats like this have become increasingly conservative - but not necessarily Conservative, as this seat shows. Local politics along the coast is a contest between Conservative and Liberal Democrat, historically indeed won by the Conservatives, but they suffered a complete wipe out in 2019, and made little recovery in 2023, winning seats just at the far ends of the coast, including Happisburgh and Bacton where dissatisfaction with coastal erosion may have played a part. Indeed coastal erosion of the soft clay sediments is an issue for the whole coast east of Cromer, where there is no protection from marshes, and strong coastal currents. Cromer has an interglacial named after it, where the ice sheet stopped half a million years ago, dumping the sediments. This area accounts for just under half the electorate.
Norfolk is the agricultural heartland of Britain, and much of it falls in the inland half of this seat, littered with stately homes and country houses, like Holkham Hall (home to the Earl of Leicester), built on the agricultural wealth, originally of wool, and then of wheat. These are not prairies however - there is plenty of woodland alongside the wheatfields. The largest settlement in the seat is North Walsham, with a population of just 12,500, and a history built on wool. There is only one other settlement that might be called a town in the inland portion - Holt, a pleasant market town with a population of 3,500. The rest is agricultural villages. There is quite a bit of rural council housing here (much as usual now sold off), and while managerial occupations exceed routine, they don’t do so by much, in what is working countryside, with low educational qualifications. The retired population is still over 25% everywhere, although not as high as on the coast, partly one suspects because the young people migrate to the towns in the absence of local employment opportunities. In local politics the Liberal Democrats are traditionally stronger in this section, particularly North Walsham which is a little down market of the rest of the seat, with more routine than managerial workers and quite a lot of social housing.
Overall this is one of the 10 whitest seats in the UK, and has the second highest retired population after Christchurch. Related to this it has the lowest percentage of students in the whole country (these figures are for those over 16, so include schoolchildren). This however wasn’t always the case. Historically this area was the base for the National Union of Agricultural Workers, which sent Labour MPs Edwin Gooch and Bert Hazell to parliament from 1945 to 1970. Concern over the plight of poor agricultural labourers in tied cottages led to legislation to improve their condition in the Labour government of the 1960s. By 1979 however as machines replaced humans, and the population on the coast expanded, the seat had become safely Conservative, with the Alliance taking over second place. In 1997 the Liberal Democrat candidate Norman Lamb reduced the Conservative majority to just over 1000, winning narrowly in 2001, expanding his majority to safety in 2005 and 2010, helping him to hold on against the tide in 2015 and 2017 (when he defeated the present MP for NW Norfolk, James Wild). Despite the local political dominance of the Liberal Democrats, who inherited what was left of the rural agricultural Labour vote, the Conservatives won the seat very easily in 2019 on the retirement of Norman Lamb. Don’t let anyone tell you the elderly are set in their ways. Following the huge swing to the Conservatives in 2019, the folk of North Norfolk produced an equally large swing the other way in 2024, with the Liberal Democrats easily gaining the seat with a 2500 majority, aided no doubt by the sizeable Reform vote. The seat was unaltered except for a minor adjustment to new ward boundaries. The new MP is Steffan Aquarone, a media entrepreneur, replacing one term Duncan Baker, former leader of the District Council.
Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (177/575 in England & Wales), private rented 17% (321st), social rented 13% (399th)
: White 98%(9th), Black 0%(559th), South Asian 0%(573rd), Mixed 1%(533rd), Other 1%(567th)
: Managerial & professional 33% (423rd), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (244th)
: Degree level 27%(443rd), Minimal qualifications 32%(146th)
: Students 3% (575th), Over 65- 34% (2nd)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 98% from North Norfolk, and 2% from Broadland
100% of the old seat is in the new one
North Norfolk is an unusual seat, with an unusual political history. There are two parts to it. Firstly the long coast of north Norfolk, extending from Wells-next-the-sea in the west all the way round to Happisburgh and Waxham, just to the north of Yarmouth. The coast in the west is part of the marshy lowlands adjoining the Wash, full of bird sanctuaries, half of which is in north-west Norfolk. At Sheringham the marshes disappear, and there is a more conventional coast with beaches stretching to the east. Cromer (headquarters of the District Council) and Sheringham are seaside resorts, both with populations of just over 7000, and with the relatively high levels of private renting typical of such resorts. Both have escaped the worst decline of domestic tourism, although Cromer is far from its Victorian glory. All the rest are retirement villages. The whole area has over a third retired population, reaching a peak of over 40% in the villages both sides of Sheringham. Here almost half of voters are over 65. For those not retired, managerial jobs exceed routine, except in Cromer, but not by much. The elderly population means that educational qualifications are not high. Both age and qualifications have become more important factors in voting than class in recent years, and seats like this have become increasingly conservative - but not necessarily Conservative, as this seat shows. Local politics along the coast is a contest between Conservative and Liberal Democrat, historically indeed won by the Conservatives, but they suffered a complete wipe out in 2019, and made little recovery in 2023, winning seats just at the far ends of the coast, including Happisburgh and Bacton where dissatisfaction with coastal erosion may have played a part. Indeed coastal erosion of the soft clay sediments is an issue for the whole coast east of Cromer, where there is no protection from marshes, and strong coastal currents. Cromer has an interglacial named after it, where the ice sheet stopped half a million years ago, dumping the sediments. This area accounts for just under half the electorate.
Norfolk is the agricultural heartland of Britain, and much of it falls in the inland half of this seat, littered with stately homes and country houses, like Holkham Hall (home to the Earl of Leicester), built on the agricultural wealth, originally of wool, and then of wheat. These are not prairies however - there is plenty of woodland alongside the wheatfields. The largest settlement in the seat is North Walsham, with a population of just 12,500, and a history built on wool. There is only one other settlement that might be called a town in the inland portion - Holt, a pleasant market town with a population of 3,500. The rest is agricultural villages. There is quite a bit of rural council housing here (much as usual now sold off), and while managerial occupations exceed routine, they don’t do so by much, in what is working countryside, with low educational qualifications. The retired population is still over 25% everywhere, although not as high as on the coast, partly one suspects because the young people migrate to the towns in the absence of local employment opportunities. In local politics the Liberal Democrats are traditionally stronger in this section, particularly North Walsham which is a little down market of the rest of the seat, with more routine than managerial workers and quite a lot of social housing.
Overall this is one of the 10 whitest seats in the UK, and has the second highest retired population after Christchurch. Related to this it has the lowest percentage of students in the whole country (these figures are for those over 16, so include schoolchildren). This however wasn’t always the case. Historically this area was the base for the National Union of Agricultural Workers, which sent Labour MPs Edwin Gooch and Bert Hazell to parliament from 1945 to 1970. Concern over the plight of poor agricultural labourers in tied cottages led to legislation to improve their condition in the Labour government of the 1960s. By 1979 however as machines replaced humans, and the population on the coast expanded, the seat had become safely Conservative, with the Alliance taking over second place. In 1997 the Liberal Democrat candidate Norman Lamb reduced the Conservative majority to just over 1000, winning narrowly in 2001, expanding his majority to safety in 2005 and 2010, helping him to hold on against the tide in 2015 and 2017 (when he defeated the present MP for NW Norfolk, James Wild). Despite the local political dominance of the Liberal Democrats, who inherited what was left of the rural agricultural Labour vote, the Conservatives won the seat very easily in 2019 on the retirement of Norman Lamb. Don’t let anyone tell you the elderly are set in their ways. Following the huge swing to the Conservatives in 2019, the folk of North Norfolk produced an equally large swing the other way in 2024, with the Liberal Democrats easily gaining the seat with a 2500 majority, aided no doubt by the sizeable Reform vote. The seat was unaltered except for a minor adjustment to new ward boundaries. The new MP is Steffan Aquarone, a media entrepreneur, replacing one term Duncan Baker, former leader of the District Council.
Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (177/575 in England & Wales), private rented 17% (321st), social rented 13% (399th)
: White 98%(9th), Black 0%(559th), South Asian 0%(573rd), Mixed 1%(533rd), Other 1%(567th)
: Managerial & professional 33% (423rd), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (244th)
: Degree level 27%(443rd), Minimal qualifications 32%(146th)
: Students 3% (575th), Over 65- 34% (2nd)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 98% from North Norfolk, and 2% from Broadland
100% of the old seat is in the new one
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Liberal Democrat | 25,260 | 48.4 | 15,397 | 30.3 | 15,653 | 30.4 | 19,488 | 41.4 |
| Conservative | 21,748 | 41.7 | 29,792 | 58.6 | 30,145 | 58.5 | 16,903 | 35.9 |
| Labour | 5,180 | 9.9 | 3,895 | 7.7 | 3,980 | 7.7 | 2,878 | 6.1 |
| Brexit/Reform | 1,739 | 3.4 | 1,739 | 3.4 | 6,368 | 13.5 | ||
| Green | 45 | 0.1 | 1,406 | 3.0 | ||||
| Majority | 3,512 | 61.7 | -14,395 | -28.3 | -14,492 | -28.1 | 2,585 | 5.5 |