Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 20, 2023 5:25:48 GMT
City of Chester: Lab HOLD (Con -14%)
Stretford and Urmston: Lab HOLD (Con -12%)
West Lancashire: Lab HOLD (Con -11%)
Selby and Ainsty: Lab GAIN (Con -26%)
Somerton and Frome: Lib Dem GAIN (Con -30%)
Uxbridge and South Rusilip: Con HOLD (Con -7%)
Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Lab GAIN (Con -11%)
Mid Bedfordshire: Lab GAIN (Con -29%)
Tamworth: Lab GAIN (Con -25%)
Conservative defences: Con -11%
Non Conservative defences: Con -13%
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bigfatron
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,960
Member is Online
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 20, 2023 5:34:41 GMT
The average Tory vote share drop in Tory defences is 23.5%, not 11% - their best result is -7% and they have a -30%, -29% and -26% in there!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2023 9:42:20 GMT
I may work out Con/Lab swings in all byelections this parliament later - Hartlepool will certainly stick out a bit.
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bigfatron
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,960
Member is Online
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 20, 2023 10:37:24 GMT
Some wag has applied the Mid Beds vote share changes to Electoral Calculus and ended up with a 'prediction' with the Tories as the fourth largest party, having fewer seats than the Lib Dems and the SNP.
I haven't bothered to check if they are right and it's utter nonsense anyway of course, but while Tory ministers try to spin this as 'not that bad' it provides an amusing counterpoint none the less...
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 20, 2023 11:05:05 GMT
Some wag has applied the Mid Beds vote share changes to Electoral Calculus and ended up with a 'prediction' with the Tories as the fourth largest party, having fewer seats than the Lib Dems and the SNP. I haven't bothered to check if they are right and it's utter nonsense anyway of course, but while Tory ministers try to spin this as 'not that bad' it provides an amusing counterpoint none the less... And if anyone states that "The Conservatives will go down because Lab and Lib Dem will conspire against them as we saw in Mid Beds" then I would say "That would mean that Labour would be on 42% in the polls, the Conservatives on 25% and the Lib Dems on 22% which is clearly not the case!" |
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