Post by andrewp on Oct 19, 2023 19:47:25 GMT
The second city of Wales, Swansea, has been divided into East and West parliamentary constituencies since 1918 and despite regular minor boundary changes since then, the two constituencies have existed in recognisable form for just over a century.
Now, however, that is about to change. Both Swansea constituencies are on the small side ( in 2019 West had an electorate of 57000 and East 58000) so with the neighbouring constituencies of Gower and Neath also being similarly undersized, major change was necessary in the 2023 boundary review.
The boundary commission sometimes, however, works in mysterious ways and a cursory glance at the new constituency names in the area- Swansea East & Neath and Swansea West -may lead the observer/lazy journalist to pronounce that Swansea East and Neath constituencies have been merged whilst Swansea West remains intact. That is clearly not the case. The new Swansea West contains the majority of electors from both the current Swansea East ( 62.3%) and Swansea West (70.9%). This really can more accurately described as a merger of Swansea East and Swansea West and perhaps really should have been named Swansea Central.
In the past there have been examples where the political leaning of constituencies have changed, despite the constituency name remaining the same, one thinks of Bristol West in 2010 for example, but despite the significant changes to the boundaries, that is not really the case here. The current Swansea West was safe for the Labour Party in 2019 and despite a very different complexion this new seat will be safe for Labour too, probably a bit safer than the current West.
Swansea, like many UK cities has a more affluent western End and a more working class Eastern side. The 2 constituencies previously assigned to Swansea were very different politically- West , whilst nearly always being held by Labour was sometimes marginal where as East was a rock solid Labour seat. West was actually won by the Conservatives in 1959 and Labour beat the Conservatives narrowly in both 1979 and 1983 and then had a close shave with a different foe, the Liberal Democrat’s, at that party’s pre coalition peak in 2010, holding them off by 504 votes. The realignment in social and political trends, however have led to the results in the 2 constituencies converging and, for the first time ever, producing almost identical results in 2019 with Labour beating the Conservatives by approximately 52%-29% in both seats. The partial political realignment of that year being reflected by the fact the East is estimated to have voted 62% to leave the European Union and West 57% to remain in it.
As you would expect for a seat which is City Central in practice if not in name, all of the major landmarks and the City Centre area are in this constituency. Here is the main shopping district, the waterfront area, the castle and the University. The City Centre, situated beside one of the ports for the Welsh Mining industry, became the target for a Blitz in 1941 and was largely destroyed and then rebuilt in the 1950s and 1960s. This constituency also includes the University, built post war on a beautifully located campus on the sea front. Near the University, and also on the sea front is St Helens sports ground, the traditional home of Swansea Rugby Club and second home of Glamorgan county cricket club.
The new constituency exhibits much of the demographic profile of a city centre seat. There are 14600 students living in this constituency, or 16.8% of the electorate, giving this seat the 32nd highest percentage of students, and putting the seat in the top 50 nationally for the percentage of people aged between 16-24. The student profile and city centre nature also mean that 26.1% of people live in socially rented accommodation, the 54th highest nationwide and owner occupancy is low at 50.5% It is more ethnically diverse than the Welsh average, with the biggest non white group being 7.1% of the population who are Asian.
The old traditional West End of the city is still in this constituency in Uplands and Sketty wards. Sketty is, along with the Mumbles, the most desirable residential area in Swansea and a former Conservative stronghold that drifted towards the Liberal Democrat’s, at local election level at least, over the last 25 years. Sketty is one of only two 5 member council wards in the whole of the UK ( the other is Morriston at the other end of this new constituency) and in 2022 elected a full slate of Liberal Democrat councillors, but is probably competitive between all 3 main parties at General Elections. It also contains Swansea University's Singleton Campus.
Uplands was the childhood home of the famous Welsh poet Dylan Thomas and as an area near the University has become more bohemian as the home to many of the students. In the local elections of 2022. Uplands elected councillors from an ex Lib Dem splinter group. The core of the modern metropolitan Labour vote is here but some of this overspills into neighbouring Castle which ward is a very mixed ward with some significant areas of deprivation around Dyfatty and North Hill.
Cwmbwrla, Landore, Mynydd-bach and Morriston are the core of old industrial Swansea, with lots of terraced housing, some council estates, and a traditional Labour vote. Cwmbwria is a Lib Dem bastion at local level, with the same councillors having represented the ward since the 1980s. The Swansea.com stadium, up the valley from the City Centre and home to Swansea City FC and the Ospreys Rugby side is a few metres outside the constitutency, in Bon-y-maen ward (Neath & Swansea East). The seat then follows the Valley northwards to Morriston ward, which includes Morriston hospital and the DVLA offices, respectively the two largest employers locally, and reaches as far as the community of Ynystawe, north of the M4 and at the bottom of the Upper Swansea Valley.
Townhill and Penderry both contain almost entirely large council estates and have significant deprivation. They are solidly Labour but also areas of low turnout and Brexit/UKIP support
In the 2022 local elections, there was precious little sign of any Conservative momentum from the 2019 General election being maintained here. The highest percentage that they achieved in any of the 10 wards within this constituency was 21%. Labour racked up over 75% in Penderry and Landore wards and over 60% in Morriston, Mynyddbach and Townhill. The Liberal Democrats won three wards, Sketty, the new Waterfront ward which covers the maritime quarter and is split between this constituency and Neath & Swansea East, and Cwmbwria where the party have a run of success going back to 1984. The Lib Dems managed to finish second in West in the parliamentary contests of 2005 and 2010 but have finished in 5th place in each of the last three general elections.
The inclusion of the wards from East probably ensures that even in a time of future unpopular Labour government, that no party will be able to challenge the Labour grip here in the way that they could in the ‘old’ Swansea West.
Now, however, that is about to change. Both Swansea constituencies are on the small side ( in 2019 West had an electorate of 57000 and East 58000) so with the neighbouring constituencies of Gower and Neath also being similarly undersized, major change was necessary in the 2023 boundary review.
The boundary commission sometimes, however, works in mysterious ways and a cursory glance at the new constituency names in the area- Swansea East & Neath and Swansea West -may lead the observer/lazy journalist to pronounce that Swansea East and Neath constituencies have been merged whilst Swansea West remains intact. That is clearly not the case. The new Swansea West contains the majority of electors from both the current Swansea East ( 62.3%) and Swansea West (70.9%). This really can more accurately described as a merger of Swansea East and Swansea West and perhaps really should have been named Swansea Central.
In the past there have been examples where the political leaning of constituencies have changed, despite the constituency name remaining the same, one thinks of Bristol West in 2010 for example, but despite the significant changes to the boundaries, that is not really the case here. The current Swansea West was safe for the Labour Party in 2019 and despite a very different complexion this new seat will be safe for Labour too, probably a bit safer than the current West.
Swansea, like many UK cities has a more affluent western End and a more working class Eastern side. The 2 constituencies previously assigned to Swansea were very different politically- West , whilst nearly always being held by Labour was sometimes marginal where as East was a rock solid Labour seat. West was actually won by the Conservatives in 1959 and Labour beat the Conservatives narrowly in both 1979 and 1983 and then had a close shave with a different foe, the Liberal Democrat’s, at that party’s pre coalition peak in 2010, holding them off by 504 votes. The realignment in social and political trends, however have led to the results in the 2 constituencies converging and, for the first time ever, producing almost identical results in 2019 with Labour beating the Conservatives by approximately 52%-29% in both seats. The partial political realignment of that year being reflected by the fact the East is estimated to have voted 62% to leave the European Union and West 57% to remain in it.
As you would expect for a seat which is City Central in practice if not in name, all of the major landmarks and the City Centre area are in this constituency. Here is the main shopping district, the waterfront area, the castle and the University. The City Centre, situated beside one of the ports for the Welsh Mining industry, became the target for a Blitz in 1941 and was largely destroyed and then rebuilt in the 1950s and 1960s. This constituency also includes the University, built post war on a beautifully located campus on the sea front. Near the University, and also on the sea front is St Helens sports ground, the traditional home of Swansea Rugby Club and second home of Glamorgan county cricket club.
The new constituency exhibits much of the demographic profile of a city centre seat. There are 14600 students living in this constituency, or 16.8% of the electorate, giving this seat the 32nd highest percentage of students, and putting the seat in the top 50 nationally for the percentage of people aged between 16-24. The student profile and city centre nature also mean that 26.1% of people live in socially rented accommodation, the 54th highest nationwide and owner occupancy is low at 50.5% It is more ethnically diverse than the Welsh average, with the biggest non white group being 7.1% of the population who are Asian.
The old traditional West End of the city is still in this constituency in Uplands and Sketty wards. Sketty is, along with the Mumbles, the most desirable residential area in Swansea and a former Conservative stronghold that drifted towards the Liberal Democrat’s, at local election level at least, over the last 25 years. Sketty is one of only two 5 member council wards in the whole of the UK ( the other is Morriston at the other end of this new constituency) and in 2022 elected a full slate of Liberal Democrat councillors, but is probably competitive between all 3 main parties at General Elections. It also contains Swansea University's Singleton Campus.
Uplands was the childhood home of the famous Welsh poet Dylan Thomas and as an area near the University has become more bohemian as the home to many of the students. In the local elections of 2022. Uplands elected councillors from an ex Lib Dem splinter group. The core of the modern metropolitan Labour vote is here but some of this overspills into neighbouring Castle which ward is a very mixed ward with some significant areas of deprivation around Dyfatty and North Hill.
Cwmbwrla, Landore, Mynydd-bach and Morriston are the core of old industrial Swansea, with lots of terraced housing, some council estates, and a traditional Labour vote. Cwmbwria is a Lib Dem bastion at local level, with the same councillors having represented the ward since the 1980s. The Swansea.com stadium, up the valley from the City Centre and home to Swansea City FC and the Ospreys Rugby side is a few metres outside the constitutency, in Bon-y-maen ward (Neath & Swansea East). The seat then follows the Valley northwards to Morriston ward, which includes Morriston hospital and the DVLA offices, respectively the two largest employers locally, and reaches as far as the community of Ynystawe, north of the M4 and at the bottom of the Upper Swansea Valley.
Townhill and Penderry both contain almost entirely large council estates and have significant deprivation. They are solidly Labour but also areas of low turnout and Brexit/UKIP support
In the 2022 local elections, there was precious little sign of any Conservative momentum from the 2019 General election being maintained here. The highest percentage that they achieved in any of the 10 wards within this constituency was 21%. Labour racked up over 75% in Penderry and Landore wards and over 60% in Morriston, Mynyddbach and Townhill. The Liberal Democrats won three wards, Sketty, the new Waterfront ward which covers the maritime quarter and is split between this constituency and Neath & Swansea East, and Cwmbwria where the party have a run of success going back to 1984. The Lib Dems managed to finish second in West in the parliamentary contests of 2005 and 2010 but have finished in 5th place in each of the last three general elections.
The inclusion of the wards from East probably ensures that even in a time of future unpopular Labour government, that no party will be able to challenge the Labour grip here in the way that they could in the ‘old’ Swansea West.
