Post by Robert Waller on Oct 18, 2023 17:38:08 GMT
There are 24 seats that are ‘disappearing’ in the most recent review of parliamentary boundaries in the United kingdom, in the sense that they are being broken up into pieces which will form the smaller part of new seats. There are also 24 that are new in the sense that they don't contain the larger part of any existing seat. But there is another smaller category. This is of constituencies that contain more than half of two previous seats. There are five of these, all in Wales: Mid & South Pembrokeshire, Newport West & Islwyn, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare – and Clwyd North. The reason is the heavy over-representation of Wales, with its many small constituencies, being corrected as its electorate quota has been equalised with the other three home nations. Clwyd North contains just under 70% of the former Clwyd West and just over 64% of Vale of Clwyd.
This is a fairly logically shaped seat. In the map (below), it looks a little like a handgun pointing to the left, or west.
www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/63965257179763988/
Compare (scrolling down a little)
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Clwyd%20North
The barrel of the gun is a long stretch of North Wales coastline, from Colwyn Bay in the west through Abergele, Towyn and Kinmel Bay to end at Rhyl, which is about where a pistol’s hammer would be. The south-eastern, inland, extension, where the grip would be, proceeds through Rhuddlan and St Asaph to Denbigh.
The coast from Colwyn Bay as far as Kinmel Bay were in Clwyd West, which has lost its large but thinly populated inland section such as Ruthin, to Bangor Aberconwy (14.2% of its electorate) and Clwyd East (16.1%). Rhyl and Denbigh were in Vale of Clywd, but it has lost over a third (36%) of its voters to Clwyd East, chiefly those in the environs of Prestatyn.
Clwyd West, which had existed since 1997, could be regarded as a Conservative seat in an even year. Labour won it only in the two Blair landslides of 1997 and 2001, on both occasions by less than 2,000 votes, and it was gained by David Jones in 2005, when Labour still won the general election. In his four subsequent victories Jones’s majority was very similar on three occasions: between 6,419 (2010) and 6,747 (2109). In 2017 it was reduced to about half of that number. Vale of Clwyd on the other hand was probably slightly in the Labour side of average, for they won it on five occasions compared with two for the Tories – and it changed and in every election between 2015 and 2019, alternating between Labour’s Chris Ruane and James Davies for the Conservatives. In the most recent national contest Davies regained it by a margin of just 1,827.
The new seat is divided between the local authorities of Denbighshire (its eastern half) and Conwy (to the west). The Denbighshire local elections results in the ex Vale of Clwyd section are made harder to interpret by the success of Independents, who form the second largest bloc in the council after the most recent municipal contests in 2022. However, the Greens gained St Asaph East, and Plaid Cymru took seats in a couple of the inland electoral divisions with a higher proportion of Welsh speakers, Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan and Denbigh Lower. The Conservatives did win a handful of seats within that authority – in Rhuddlan, rural Trefnant, St Asaph West and one seat in the divided Rhyl East. On the other hand, Labour won all the other council seats in Rhyl, returning 11 councillors in all in the town, but the only other division they won was Bodelwyddan, which only has 1,612 electors. This emphasises how exceptional Rhyl is, but the election results are as nothing compared with some of the demographic statistics in the seaside town (one hesitates to say resort).
Rhyl, quite simply, has some of the most deprived neighbourhoods anywhere in Britain. In the town as a whole around 30% of residents have no educational qualifications. 17% in Rhyl North MSOA declared themselves to be in ‘never worked and long term unemployed; category, and 15% in Rhyl SW, and in addition to this 40% are in routine and semi-routine work. Furthermore, in the 2019 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation report, the most deprived small area in Wales in WIMD 2019 was Rhyl West 2 (the area around Rhyl High Street). The neighbouring area of Rhyl West 1 was now ranked second most deprived. In Rhyl South West, around 70% of households were affected by deprivation according to the map in the report. In March 2023 Rhyl was rated as the “worst seaside resort in Britain” in a report in the Daily Telegraph. Trotting out old put-downs like “Costa del Dole”, the paper summed up the town as, “no past, no arts or entertainment, no fun”. It awarded Rhyl a score of just five out of 100 and placed the town at the bottom of its list, a full 93 points below its favourite resort, St Ives in Cornwall. Although some regeneration projects have been underway, a majority of local readers of the North Wales online news-site agreed.
Within the Conwy section, all of which was in Clwyd West, there is also a lot of Independent strength in local elections, but some conclusions can still be drawn from the results. In the mist recent contests in May 2022, the largest centre of population, the Colwyn bay area, showed a balance of party strength. The Tories did win seats in each of the divisions of Llandrillo-yn-Rhos at the western end of the bay (relatively upmarket Rhos on Sea), just short of the border with Bangor Aberconwy at Penrhyn; in Eirias in east-central Colwyn Bay; and in Colwyn which covers Old Colwyn. However in all cases they had to share representation in these divisions with another party. Labour took the other two seats in the four member Llandrillo-yn-Rhos, and the other one in Colwyn, while sharing Bryn (west-central Colwyn) with Plaid Cymru, and winning Mochdre, which is mainly a social rented housing estate, easily. The rest of the minority of such housing is to be found in pockets of Bryn ward, in (Old) Colwyn, and in the north western corner of Llysfaen division (which is mainly rural, but this explains Labour’s second place behind an Independent). Finally, the Liberal Democrats secured a solid win in just one ward, Rhiw, which lies between Colwyn Bay centre, including its railway station and Rhos on Sea. The second town in this section is Abergele (11,000 population), but Independents swept the board here, as they did in Towyn and Kinmel Bay.
33% of the population of Abergele MSAO were over 65 at the time of the 2021 census, a figure exceeded in the Clwyd North seat only by the 37% in Rhos on Sea. Overall the Clwyd North seat’s electorate is indeed older that average, ranking at no.80 in the 575 in England and Wales with 25% aged 65+. Partly as a result the educational qualifications are lower than average, this variable being heavily age dependent because of the rapid expansion of university attendance. It is also unusual in that there are still more people in semi routine and routine occupations than professional and managerial – and this is not just the ‘Rhyl effect’.
Nor should the inland parts of the constituency be forgotten, the handle or magazine of that handgun. There are some distinct and historical communities here: Rhuddlan is south of Rhyl on the river Clwyd, once the capital of the Welsh kingdom of Gwynedd and subsequently pacified by the construction of one of Edward I’s massive castles. St Asaph, also with a population of under 4,000, nevertheless holds distinction as one of the smallest cities in the UK, its status confirmed in 2012, though it has had a cathedral since medieval times and is a diocese of the disestablished Church of Wales. Denbigh (9,000) is a former county town and has a markedly different, and rather Welsh, tone, feeling far from the Anglicised coastal belt. The map here shows the increase of the Welsh language as one progresses southwards:
www.denbighshire.gov.uk/en/documents/your-council/access-to-information/social-services-annual-report/appendix-g-welsh-language-community-profile.pdf
It is, therefore, far too simplistic to characterise Clwyd North as a contrast between an affluent and healthy community of Colwyn Bay in the west and the problems of Rhyl in the east. Even focusing on the coast where the majority of electors are to be found, both are too large to justify such generalisation. Colwyn Bay’s population in the 2021 census was over 29,000, and Rhyl’s nearly 27,000. There are areas of deprivation in the former, such as the peripheral estate of Mochdre and parts of central Colwyn Bay behind the promenade. There are perfectly comfortable parts of Rhyl, particularly in its eastern and southern quadrants. It might be remembered that over half of all housing in Rhyl is owner occupied, as that figure is 73% in Rhyl East MSOA.
Overall, Clwyd North is likely to prove to be a marginal constituency in parliamentary terms, usually won by whichever major party forms a government after a general election. In 2024 it looks as if that will be Labour, but they will not be able to take it for granted. It is to be hoped that Rhyl recovers from its doldrums, but it should be remembered that it is untypical of Clwyd North as well as of Wales as a whole. In fact one of the consequences of the increase in average size in the Welsh constituencies in the most recent review is to increase their complexity, in every sense.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.2% 80/575
Owner occupied 65.0% 310/575
Private rented 21.0% 181/575
Social rented 14.0% 340/575
White 95.9% 139/575
Black 0.3% 508/575
Asian 2.1% 378/575
Managerial & professional 28.1% 413/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.2% 125/575
Degree level 29.0% 373/575
No qualifications 21.0% 148/575
Students 5.4% 315/575
General Election 2019: Clwyd West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Jones 20,403 50.7 +2.6
Labour Joanne Thomas 13,656 34.0 -5.6
Plaid Cymru Elfed Williams 3,907 9.7 +0.1
Liberal Democrats David Wilkins 2,237 5.6 +2.9
C Majority 6,747 16.7 +8.2
Turnout 40,203 69.7 -0.1
Registered electors 57,714
Conservative hold
Swing 4.2 Lab to C
General Election 2019: Vale of Clwyd
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Davies 17,270 46.4 +2.3
Labour Chris Ruane 15,443 41.5 –8.7
Plaid Cymru Glenn Swingler 1,552 4.2 +0.2
Brexit Party Peter Dain 1,477 4.0
Liberal Democrats Gavin Scott 1,471 4.0 +2.3
Rejected ballots 84
C Majority 1,827 4.9
Turnout 37,213 65.7 –2.3
Registered electors 56,649
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 5.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Clwyd North consists of
69.8% of Clwyd West
64.1% of Vale of Clwyd
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
This is a fairly logically shaped seat. In the map (below), it looks a little like a handgun pointing to the left, or west.
www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/63965257179763988/
Compare (scrolling down a little)
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Clwyd%20North
The barrel of the gun is a long stretch of North Wales coastline, from Colwyn Bay in the west through Abergele, Towyn and Kinmel Bay to end at Rhyl, which is about where a pistol’s hammer would be. The south-eastern, inland, extension, where the grip would be, proceeds through Rhuddlan and St Asaph to Denbigh.
The coast from Colwyn Bay as far as Kinmel Bay were in Clwyd West, which has lost its large but thinly populated inland section such as Ruthin, to Bangor Aberconwy (14.2% of its electorate) and Clwyd East (16.1%). Rhyl and Denbigh were in Vale of Clywd, but it has lost over a third (36%) of its voters to Clwyd East, chiefly those in the environs of Prestatyn.
Clwyd West, which had existed since 1997, could be regarded as a Conservative seat in an even year. Labour won it only in the two Blair landslides of 1997 and 2001, on both occasions by less than 2,000 votes, and it was gained by David Jones in 2005, when Labour still won the general election. In his four subsequent victories Jones’s majority was very similar on three occasions: between 6,419 (2010) and 6,747 (2109). In 2017 it was reduced to about half of that number. Vale of Clwyd on the other hand was probably slightly in the Labour side of average, for they won it on five occasions compared with two for the Tories – and it changed and in every election between 2015 and 2019, alternating between Labour’s Chris Ruane and James Davies for the Conservatives. In the most recent national contest Davies regained it by a margin of just 1,827.
The new seat is divided between the local authorities of Denbighshire (its eastern half) and Conwy (to the west). The Denbighshire local elections results in the ex Vale of Clwyd section are made harder to interpret by the success of Independents, who form the second largest bloc in the council after the most recent municipal contests in 2022. However, the Greens gained St Asaph East, and Plaid Cymru took seats in a couple of the inland electoral divisions with a higher proportion of Welsh speakers, Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan and Denbigh Lower. The Conservatives did win a handful of seats within that authority – in Rhuddlan, rural Trefnant, St Asaph West and one seat in the divided Rhyl East. On the other hand, Labour won all the other council seats in Rhyl, returning 11 councillors in all in the town, but the only other division they won was Bodelwyddan, which only has 1,612 electors. This emphasises how exceptional Rhyl is, but the election results are as nothing compared with some of the demographic statistics in the seaside town (one hesitates to say resort).
Rhyl, quite simply, has some of the most deprived neighbourhoods anywhere in Britain. In the town as a whole around 30% of residents have no educational qualifications. 17% in Rhyl North MSOA declared themselves to be in ‘never worked and long term unemployed; category, and 15% in Rhyl SW, and in addition to this 40% are in routine and semi-routine work. Furthermore, in the 2019 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation report, the most deprived small area in Wales in WIMD 2019 was Rhyl West 2 (the area around Rhyl High Street). The neighbouring area of Rhyl West 1 was now ranked second most deprived. In Rhyl South West, around 70% of households were affected by deprivation according to the map in the report. In March 2023 Rhyl was rated as the “worst seaside resort in Britain” in a report in the Daily Telegraph. Trotting out old put-downs like “Costa del Dole”, the paper summed up the town as, “no past, no arts or entertainment, no fun”. It awarded Rhyl a score of just five out of 100 and placed the town at the bottom of its list, a full 93 points below its favourite resort, St Ives in Cornwall. Although some regeneration projects have been underway, a majority of local readers of the North Wales online news-site agreed.
Within the Conwy section, all of which was in Clwyd West, there is also a lot of Independent strength in local elections, but some conclusions can still be drawn from the results. In the mist recent contests in May 2022, the largest centre of population, the Colwyn bay area, showed a balance of party strength. The Tories did win seats in each of the divisions of Llandrillo-yn-Rhos at the western end of the bay (relatively upmarket Rhos on Sea), just short of the border with Bangor Aberconwy at Penrhyn; in Eirias in east-central Colwyn Bay; and in Colwyn which covers Old Colwyn. However in all cases they had to share representation in these divisions with another party. Labour took the other two seats in the four member Llandrillo-yn-Rhos, and the other one in Colwyn, while sharing Bryn (west-central Colwyn) with Plaid Cymru, and winning Mochdre, which is mainly a social rented housing estate, easily. The rest of the minority of such housing is to be found in pockets of Bryn ward, in (Old) Colwyn, and in the north western corner of Llysfaen division (which is mainly rural, but this explains Labour’s second place behind an Independent). Finally, the Liberal Democrats secured a solid win in just one ward, Rhiw, which lies between Colwyn Bay centre, including its railway station and Rhos on Sea. The second town in this section is Abergele (11,000 population), but Independents swept the board here, as they did in Towyn and Kinmel Bay.
33% of the population of Abergele MSAO were over 65 at the time of the 2021 census, a figure exceeded in the Clwyd North seat only by the 37% in Rhos on Sea. Overall the Clwyd North seat’s electorate is indeed older that average, ranking at no.80 in the 575 in England and Wales with 25% aged 65+. Partly as a result the educational qualifications are lower than average, this variable being heavily age dependent because of the rapid expansion of university attendance. It is also unusual in that there are still more people in semi routine and routine occupations than professional and managerial – and this is not just the ‘Rhyl effect’.
Nor should the inland parts of the constituency be forgotten, the handle or magazine of that handgun. There are some distinct and historical communities here: Rhuddlan is south of Rhyl on the river Clwyd, once the capital of the Welsh kingdom of Gwynedd and subsequently pacified by the construction of one of Edward I’s massive castles. St Asaph, also with a population of under 4,000, nevertheless holds distinction as one of the smallest cities in the UK, its status confirmed in 2012, though it has had a cathedral since medieval times and is a diocese of the disestablished Church of Wales. Denbigh (9,000) is a former county town and has a markedly different, and rather Welsh, tone, feeling far from the Anglicised coastal belt. The map here shows the increase of the Welsh language as one progresses southwards:
www.denbighshire.gov.uk/en/documents/your-council/access-to-information/social-services-annual-report/appendix-g-welsh-language-community-profile.pdf
It is, therefore, far too simplistic to characterise Clwyd North as a contrast between an affluent and healthy community of Colwyn Bay in the west and the problems of Rhyl in the east. Even focusing on the coast where the majority of electors are to be found, both are too large to justify such generalisation. Colwyn Bay’s population in the 2021 census was over 29,000, and Rhyl’s nearly 27,000. There are areas of deprivation in the former, such as the peripheral estate of Mochdre and parts of central Colwyn Bay behind the promenade. There are perfectly comfortable parts of Rhyl, particularly in its eastern and southern quadrants. It might be remembered that over half of all housing in Rhyl is owner occupied, as that figure is 73% in Rhyl East MSOA.
Overall, Clwyd North is likely to prove to be a marginal constituency in parliamentary terms, usually won by whichever major party forms a government after a general election. In 2024 it looks as if that will be Labour, but they will not be able to take it for granted. It is to be hoped that Rhyl recovers from its doldrums, but it should be remembered that it is untypical of Clwyd North as well as of Wales as a whole. In fact one of the consequences of the increase in average size in the Welsh constituencies in the most recent review is to increase their complexity, in every sense.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.2% 80/575
Owner occupied 65.0% 310/575
Private rented 21.0% 181/575
Social rented 14.0% 340/575
White 95.9% 139/575
Black 0.3% 508/575
Asian 2.1% 378/575
Managerial & professional 28.1% 413/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.2% 125/575
Degree level 29.0% 373/575
No qualifications 21.0% 148/575
Students 5.4% 315/575
General Election 2019: Clwyd West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Jones 20,403 50.7 +2.6
Labour Joanne Thomas 13,656 34.0 -5.6
Plaid Cymru Elfed Williams 3,907 9.7 +0.1
Liberal Democrats David Wilkins 2,237 5.6 +2.9
C Majority 6,747 16.7 +8.2
Turnout 40,203 69.7 -0.1
Registered electors 57,714
Conservative hold
Swing 4.2 Lab to C
General Election 2019: Vale of Clwyd
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Davies 17,270 46.4 +2.3
Labour Chris Ruane 15,443 41.5 –8.7
Plaid Cymru Glenn Swingler 1,552 4.2 +0.2
Brexit Party Peter Dain 1,477 4.0
Liberal Democrats Gavin Scott 1,471 4.0 +2.3
Rejected ballots 84
C Majority 1,827 4.9
Turnout 37,213 65.7 –2.3
Registered electors 56,649
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 5.5 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Clwyd North consists of
69.8% of Clwyd West
64.1% of Vale of Clwyd
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 24379 | 45.8% |
| Lab | 20645 | 40.3% |
| Plaid Cymru | 3713 | 7.2% |
| LD | 2501 | 4.9% |
| Brexit | 951 | 2.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 820 | 1.9% |
| Majority | 2834 | 5.5% |