Post by Robert Waller on Oct 16, 2023 23:50:58 GMT
The constituency of South West Surrey – held since 2005 by the current Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt – has been split in two. More than half of it (59%) is included in a cross border seat with parts of Hampshire in the new Farnham & Bordon seat. The other 41% forms the largest element in what counts as a freshly created constituency, because it includes the majority of no previous division - Godalming and Ash. This is the section which Jeremy Hunt has chosen to stick with and contest at the next general election. This is not without risk, as will be seen below.
Godalming was already in the Chancellor’s SW Surrey. Whether it is the largest town in this new seat as well as taking the lead in the name depends on whether one includes the contiguous Farncombe which is also in its civil parish; in fact there are fewer residents of Godalming proper (just over 10,000) than the neighbourhoods to the north which include not only Farncombe but also include Binscombe and Catteshall (13,000). However the Boundary Commission was probably influenced by the fact that the Waverley district wards covering all these areas firmly preface their names with ‘Godalming’. Perhaps the best known feature here is the major private school, Charterhouse. Jeremy Hunt is an Old Carthusian, and the list is of extraordinary length and range, from the members of the rock band Genesis (who perhaps should come first!) through David and Jonathan Dimbleby to commentators such as Henry Longhurst, Peter O’Sullevan and even Kent Walton on professional wrestling.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Old_Carthusians
In the interests of equity it should be mentioned that Godalming Sixth Form College has a high reputation and 2,100 students, far more than could possibly come from Godalming, travelling from quite far afield.
What is politically interesting though is that Godalming is far from a Tory stronghold. In the most recent Waverley council elections in May 2023 there were a number of split wards, but overall the Liberal Democrats had six councillors, Labour two, the Greens one and the Conservatives one (elected top of the poll in the southern Holloway ward, though in a close contest). There was clearly an element of an anti-Tory candidature pattern, with Greens, LD and Labour not effectively opposing each other in any of the Godalming wards.
These are Labour’s only successes within the whole Godalming & Ash seat, and accounted for by the fact that the north, ‘Farncombe’ side of the urban unit contains one of its only two significant concentrations of working class residents (routine and semi-routine occupations) and of social housing – to be found within the Farncombe MSOA in Binscombe and in the part of Farncombe north east of Kings Road. Labour’s 2023 successes were in the Farncombe & Catteshall and Binscombe & Charterhouse wards – though in each case they took the last available council seat in the ward and trailed their Lib Dem and Green ‘running mates’.
Overall the Godalming & Ash division contains the eastern half of SW Surrey, and is in the main a regular shape covering the west-central section of the southern half of the county, with the exception of a salient in its north-western corner that takes in the Ash wards. Also in the ‘rectangle’, which has contributions from SW Surrey (about 32,000 electors, Guildford (19,000) and Mole Valley (4,000), are a large number of ‘standard Surrey’ affluent communities. The largest of these is Cranleigh, which also has a well known independent school, which has 10,000 electors in three wards, which cover a wider area than the small town (or very large ‘village’ – it is home to over 11,000 people). Cranleigh was in SW Surrey, as were the wards of Bramley, Busbridge & Hascombe on the way from Guildford to Cranleigh, Milford just off the A3, and, west of that road, Elstead & Thursley – heathland and hills respectively. The ward boundaries and names had changed between the Commission’s allocations and 2023, but the Liberal Democrats were clearly ahead in this area too, taking all five councillors in Cranleigh plus the one in Elstead, while an Independent topped the poll in Milford with the LD second. The Tories were clearly ahead only in Bramley & Wonersh and in ‘Western Commons’ which covers Thursley and Tilford, with its much filmed village cricket ground.
Within the Guildford borough section, east of Guildford Godalming & Ash includes the Tillingbourne ward - along the A25 and including Shere, Albury, Holmbury St Mary and Abinger Hammer. This is the only part taken from the condemned Mole Valley constituency. After a notable byelection triumph in October 2022, the Liberal Democrats also topped the poll in Tillingbourne in May 2023, although a Tory won the other seat. The LDs did take both in Shalford, though, south of Guildford. The connection between the heart of Godalming & Ash and the Ash area lies in the Pilgrims ward, a large rural area that in effect covers the Hog’s Back, the North Downs ridge capped by the A31 trunk road between Guildford and Farnham. Pilgrims recorded a rare Conservative victory, anywhere in Surrey really, in May 2023.
The final section is the rather odd Ash salient. This is atypical not only geographically but because, although also in Guildford borough, it has been taken from the Surrey Heath constituency; it does indeed tend to look north to Frimley and Camberley up the Blackwater Valley, and even west to Aldershot and Farnborough in Hampshire – North Camp station is actually in Ash Vale. Ash is a relatively substantial population centre, with three wards (Ash South & Tongham, Ash Vale and Ash Wharf when the Commission made its recommendations; Ash South instead of the first named now) with a combined electorate of over 15,000. It also has the other small area in the constituency of working class occupations and social rented housing, centred on Church View in Ash Wharf ward (there is also a small council estate in Tongham in Ash South). However for all that Ash is one of the less wealthy and highly educated parts of the whole seat – which ranks overall in the top 5% for professional and managerial employment and the bottom decile for those with no educational qualifications - the political flavour is familiar. In the May 2023 council elections, the Liberal Democrats won both Ash Vale (by two to one over the Tories) and Ash Wharf (where Labour stood and finished third with about 17%), while Ash South was taken by Residents.
Across all wards within Godalming & Ash in May 2023, the Liberal Democrats took 37% of the vote to 30% for the Conservatives. The Greens were in third place with less than 12%. Of course this cannot be regarded as a prediction of a putative 2024 general election result, and the notional calculations for December 2019 suggest a Tory majority of over 11,000, requiring a swing of about 11% for the Liberal Democrats to take it. Nevertheless, the municipal figures do suggest that a Conservative loss is at the least a possibility, which would count as one of the greatest scalps for any opposition party. Jeremy Hunt will only be the incumbent for 41% of the electors, so that is one factor in the defence which will be diminished. Nor is there likely to be a seriously split opposition vote; indeed there already seems to be evidence of tactical organisation, for example in those 2023 contests in Godalming. Here, as in several other constituencies, the image of Surrey as a solidly Conservative, and conservative, county is outmoded and unreliable. In fact it would be surprising if there were not multiple changes of hand in Surrey at the forthcoming general election.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 21.8% 176/575
Owner occupied 73.4% 91/575
Private rented 14.1% 474/575
Social rented 12.4% 410/575
White 93.8% 222/575
Black 0.7% 373/575
Asian 2.6% 353/575
Managerial & professional 45.5% 37/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.2% 523/575
Degree level 44.2% 73/575
No qualifications 12.5% 528/575
Students 5.7% 270/575
Boundary Changes
Godalming and Ash consists of
41.0% of South West Surrey
24.6% of Guildford
18.7% of Surrey Heath
6.0% of Mole Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_322_Godalming%20and%20Ash_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Godalming was already in the Chancellor’s SW Surrey. Whether it is the largest town in this new seat as well as taking the lead in the name depends on whether one includes the contiguous Farncombe which is also in its civil parish; in fact there are fewer residents of Godalming proper (just over 10,000) than the neighbourhoods to the north which include not only Farncombe but also include Binscombe and Catteshall (13,000). However the Boundary Commission was probably influenced by the fact that the Waverley district wards covering all these areas firmly preface their names with ‘Godalming’. Perhaps the best known feature here is the major private school, Charterhouse. Jeremy Hunt is an Old Carthusian, and the list is of extraordinary length and range, from the members of the rock band Genesis (who perhaps should come first!) through David and Jonathan Dimbleby to commentators such as Henry Longhurst, Peter O’Sullevan and even Kent Walton on professional wrestling.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Old_Carthusians
In the interests of equity it should be mentioned that Godalming Sixth Form College has a high reputation and 2,100 students, far more than could possibly come from Godalming, travelling from quite far afield.
What is politically interesting though is that Godalming is far from a Tory stronghold. In the most recent Waverley council elections in May 2023 there were a number of split wards, but overall the Liberal Democrats had six councillors, Labour two, the Greens one and the Conservatives one (elected top of the poll in the southern Holloway ward, though in a close contest). There was clearly an element of an anti-Tory candidature pattern, with Greens, LD and Labour not effectively opposing each other in any of the Godalming wards.
These are Labour’s only successes within the whole Godalming & Ash seat, and accounted for by the fact that the north, ‘Farncombe’ side of the urban unit contains one of its only two significant concentrations of working class residents (routine and semi-routine occupations) and of social housing – to be found within the Farncombe MSOA in Binscombe and in the part of Farncombe north east of Kings Road. Labour’s 2023 successes were in the Farncombe & Catteshall and Binscombe & Charterhouse wards – though in each case they took the last available council seat in the ward and trailed their Lib Dem and Green ‘running mates’.
Overall the Godalming & Ash division contains the eastern half of SW Surrey, and is in the main a regular shape covering the west-central section of the southern half of the county, with the exception of a salient in its north-western corner that takes in the Ash wards. Also in the ‘rectangle’, which has contributions from SW Surrey (about 32,000 electors, Guildford (19,000) and Mole Valley (4,000), are a large number of ‘standard Surrey’ affluent communities. The largest of these is Cranleigh, which also has a well known independent school, which has 10,000 electors in three wards, which cover a wider area than the small town (or very large ‘village’ – it is home to over 11,000 people). Cranleigh was in SW Surrey, as were the wards of Bramley, Busbridge & Hascombe on the way from Guildford to Cranleigh, Milford just off the A3, and, west of that road, Elstead & Thursley – heathland and hills respectively. The ward boundaries and names had changed between the Commission’s allocations and 2023, but the Liberal Democrats were clearly ahead in this area too, taking all five councillors in Cranleigh plus the one in Elstead, while an Independent topped the poll in Milford with the LD second. The Tories were clearly ahead only in Bramley & Wonersh and in ‘Western Commons’ which covers Thursley and Tilford, with its much filmed village cricket ground.
Within the Guildford borough section, east of Guildford Godalming & Ash includes the Tillingbourne ward - along the A25 and including Shere, Albury, Holmbury St Mary and Abinger Hammer. This is the only part taken from the condemned Mole Valley constituency. After a notable byelection triumph in October 2022, the Liberal Democrats also topped the poll in Tillingbourne in May 2023, although a Tory won the other seat. The LDs did take both in Shalford, though, south of Guildford. The connection between the heart of Godalming & Ash and the Ash area lies in the Pilgrims ward, a large rural area that in effect covers the Hog’s Back, the North Downs ridge capped by the A31 trunk road between Guildford and Farnham. Pilgrims recorded a rare Conservative victory, anywhere in Surrey really, in May 2023.
The final section is the rather odd Ash salient. This is atypical not only geographically but because, although also in Guildford borough, it has been taken from the Surrey Heath constituency; it does indeed tend to look north to Frimley and Camberley up the Blackwater Valley, and even west to Aldershot and Farnborough in Hampshire – North Camp station is actually in Ash Vale. Ash is a relatively substantial population centre, with three wards (Ash South & Tongham, Ash Vale and Ash Wharf when the Commission made its recommendations; Ash South instead of the first named now) with a combined electorate of over 15,000. It also has the other small area in the constituency of working class occupations and social rented housing, centred on Church View in Ash Wharf ward (there is also a small council estate in Tongham in Ash South). However for all that Ash is one of the less wealthy and highly educated parts of the whole seat – which ranks overall in the top 5% for professional and managerial employment and the bottom decile for those with no educational qualifications - the political flavour is familiar. In the May 2023 council elections, the Liberal Democrats won both Ash Vale (by two to one over the Tories) and Ash Wharf (where Labour stood and finished third with about 17%), while Ash South was taken by Residents.
Across all wards within Godalming & Ash in May 2023, the Liberal Democrats took 37% of the vote to 30% for the Conservatives. The Greens were in third place with less than 12%. Of course this cannot be regarded as a prediction of a putative 2024 general election result, and the notional calculations for December 2019 suggest a Tory majority of over 11,000, requiring a swing of about 11% for the Liberal Democrats to take it. Nevertheless, the municipal figures do suggest that a Conservative loss is at the least a possibility, which would count as one of the greatest scalps for any opposition party. Jeremy Hunt will only be the incumbent for 41% of the electors, so that is one factor in the defence which will be diminished. Nor is there likely to be a seriously split opposition vote; indeed there already seems to be evidence of tactical organisation, for example in those 2023 contests in Godalming. Here, as in several other constituencies, the image of Surrey as a solidly Conservative, and conservative, county is outmoded and unreliable. In fact it would be surprising if there were not multiple changes of hand in Surrey at the forthcoming general election.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 21.8% 176/575
Owner occupied 73.4% 91/575
Private rented 14.1% 474/575
Social rented 12.4% 410/575
White 93.8% 222/575
Black 0.7% 373/575
Asian 2.6% 353/575
Managerial & professional 45.5% 37/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.2% 523/575
Degree level 44.2% 73/575
No qualifications 12.5% 528/575
Students 5.7% 270/575
Boundary Changes
Godalming and Ash consists of
41.0% of South West Surrey
24.6% of Guildford
18.7% of Surrey Heath
6.0% of Mole Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_322_Godalming%20and%20Ash_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 29728 | 53.4% |
| LD | 19008 | 34.1% |
| Lab | 4964 | 8.9% |
| Ind | 1071 | 1.9% |
| Green | 903 | 1.6% |
| Majority | 10720 | 19.3% |
