Post by bungle on Oct 16, 2023 17:58:37 GMT
Mid Derbyshire
This constituency was created in 2010 – the 11th Derbyshire seat - and survives pretty much intact in the 2023 Review. In the 2000s the level of population and housing growth across Derby and Derbyshire had finally tipped the scales in favour of creating an 11th constituency. The housing growth in and around the Derby suburbs has meant since 1983 the City of Derby has been too large to accommodate just two constituencies, so it needs to release two or three of its wards for inclusion in a wider county constituency. From 1983 – 2010 the beneficiary was South Derbyshire which picked up Derby City wards located to the south and southwest of the city; in 2010 the Boundary Commissioners had to unpick the map to insert the 11th seat and this time it was the northern wards of Derby that held the key which ultimately led to the creation of Mid Derbyshire.
Mid Derbyshire covers three local government areas – Derby City; Amber Valley and Erewash. The Derby element is the most substantial comprising about 45% of the electorate. The Amber Valley wards add up to 35% with the Erewash wards comprising 20%. The three Derby wards included in Mid Derbyshire are Allestree, Oakwood and Spondon which were previously in Derby North BC – a key marginal seat. All three wards also shared another characteristic – over the past 20 years they have been the most reliable Conservative wards across Derby city. Their removal from Derby North made all the difference for Labour in 2010 so it is unsurprising to note that Labour were enthusiastic proponents of this Mid Derbyshire configuration back in 2007/8. Allestree Ward(11,000 electors) has a huge Tory pedigree; in the 1970s/80s it regularly voted 70-80% Conservative in local elections and in the 1996 all-outs it was the only ward in Derby to elect a full complement of Conservative councillors. Named after Allestree Park (one of a few local stately homes with parkland that got incorporated into the city) it is now a large suburban estate of 1960s/70s private family sized homes situated between the Kedleston Road and A6 Duffield Road on the west side of the A38. Its heritage means its age profile is a bit older than the rest of Derby – many families have now been here 40 – 50 years – and they are very reliable Conservative voters.
Oakwood and Spondon (both around 10,000 electors) are not geographically connected to Allestree and are located on the north-eastern side of Derby. Oakwood used to form part of the Breadsall ward, but that grew from some 9,000 elections in the 1970s to 16,000 in the late 1990s so needed to be revised. The growth here was also of large privately owned, family-sized housing which creates a certain homogeneity to this ward. Those with good wages seeking family homes during that 1980s/90s period were likely to arrive somewhere like Oakwood or Mickleover and with them came attitudes broadly sympathetic but not completely loyal to the Conservative Party. Oakwood Ward was created in 2002 and other than a brief flirtation with the Lib Dems in 2008 (poor candidate choice by the Tories) it has proved a very safe ward. Even in a challenging year such as 2023 the Conservatives were winning here by 40% - their best performance in the city. Spondon is different again to both Allestree and Oakwood; it looks east down the A52 and so has good links to the M1 and Nottingham but despite that it still maintains a village identity and somewhat parochial mentality despite its size. Labour were very competitive here in the 1980s/90s with some strong local campaigning candidates but since then the Conservatives have been comfortable victors at local level.
Looking at the Amber Valley elements of the seat, the A6 and the River Derwent provide the backbone for the journey north of Derby. Mid Derbyshire contains the (then) Amber Valley wards of Duffield and Belper North, Central, East and South (ward boundaries were changed for 2023). This was all previously located in the former West Derbyshire CC. Duffield is a very comfortable commuter village which was historically natural Tory territory, even during the nadir of the mid 1990s. That said, the Greens have worked the ward hard and finally got rewarded with a gain here in 2019. They have built well on this local activism and in 2023 took both seats in the new Duffield & Quarndon Ward by a margin of nearly 40%. However, this is unlikely to make more than a ripple at parliamentary level.
In the 2023 Review there is a minor boundary change with just over 3,000 electors from the old Amber Valley ward of South West Parishes being transferred from Derbyshire Dales CC to Mid Derbyshire. This is a collection of prosperous villages to the west of Duffield and northwest of Allestree. The most prominent landmark here is the elegant Robert Adam mansion Kedleston Hall. South West Parishes has always been reliably Conservative in local elections and its addition here will add around 1,000 votes to the notional Conservative majority.
Belper is a town based around the River Derwent which brought its early prosperity through the establishment of several textile mills. The railway which bisects the middle of the town through a deep cutting also brought stronger communications for industry and business but subsequently its proximity to Derby means it is a commuter town for Derby and beyond. The local economy has adjusted to its post-industrial existence mainly through retail, services and local SMEs. There is a good mixture of housing types here - some tight knit terraced housing in the centre and some small/cheaper build private housing in areas like Far Laund. Belper is famous for giving its name to a constituency in existence until 1983 (which from 1945-1970 had George Brown as its MP). However, this nomenclature is somewhat misleading as Belper town was the northern outpost of that seat which was from 1950 focused on the area south of Derby.
Belper is usually pretty sensitive to political trends and can be seen as classic marginal territory. Its results often deliver a cliff-hanger. At a county level the division has been won by Labour by 41 votes in 1993, 29 votes in 1997 and 28 votes in 2005. In 2013 Labour were ahead by 180; in 2017 the Conservatives by 124. In recent years (post 2015) there has been a subtle but distinct trend of a better than expected performance by Labour in local elections in Belper compared to the prevailing local and national trends. Is Belper changing demographics? Yes there is a bit of a shift as the cheaper housing draws others into the town. That said, Labour struggled here in 2023 because of the emergence of a Labour splinter group – the Belper Independents – which have established themselves winning several seats, plus in Belper South the Green activism has made its way up the A6 from Duffield. What is most notable is that despite this split in the left leaning vote, the Tories could not win a single seat.
The remaining territory that makes up Mid Derbyshire is on the north east and eastern side of Derby which originally came from Erewash CC. The Erewash district wards of West Hallam & Dale Abbey, Ockbrook & Borrowash and Little Eaton & Stanley are all comfortable and reasonably affluent commuter bases for either Derby or Nottingham. These are largely overgrown villages with private housing estates but some of this territory is also still distinctly rural. Unsurprisingly these are some of the most reliable Conservative wards at the local level with only a sole Independent managing to break through in 2023 in the 8 seats available. Removing these wards from Erewash CC in 2010 gave Labour a good few thousand votes boost in a marginal seat whilst merely adding to the majority here.
Mid Derbyshire is a logical creation given the challenge of the oversized Derby despite its odd shape. However, it does feel somewhat unloved. No sooner had Mid Derbyshire been born then the Boundary Commission were happy to see it dismembered. The ‘600 seat’ review in 2013 saw revised proposals that largely took Derbyshire back to a pre-2010 configuration. In the 2018 Review the seat was going to be split four ways: Belper to Derbyshire Dales/West Derbyshire whence it had come; Oakwood and Spondon to a new Derby East; Ockbrook & Borrowash back to Erewash CC and the remainder to be part of a substantially redrawn Amber Valley CC. For Mid Derbyshire to survive intact in 2023 with only minor changes feels like a miracle intervention by the boundary gods.
From its creation this was always going to be reasonably reliable Conservative seat with a notional majority of around 5,000 based on the 2005 GE. Subsequent elections have confirmed this is a solid Conservative seat with majorities of over 11,000 recorded in all four contests to date. From 2010 Mid Derbyshire has been represented by Pauline Latham. She is a long-standing resident in the constituency (living in the Erewash village of Little Eaton) but for her party political activity she has always focused on the city of Derby (where her husband was a prominent architect). She was first elected to Derbyshire County Council in a by-election in 1987 for Breadsall division and subsequently to Derby City Council. Having contested and lost the marginal Broxtowe CC in 2001 and then being placed third on the 2004 East Midlands Euro list (just missing out on election) it was little surprise to see her chosen to contest her home constituency. In 2024 she will be 76 and so is one of the less surprising MPs to announce their retirement at the next election. There was plenty of chatter that erstwhile Derbeian Lord David Frost would use this seat to make his transition to the Commons, but nothing came of that. Instead, the Conservatives have chosen Luke Gardiner, a Special Adviser in the No 10 Policy Unit who was previously Head of Delivery and Policy to the Mayor of the West Midlands. Labour have yet to select a candidate. The Lib Dems have selected Matlock-born Barry Holliday, who is currently working in the automotive and insurance sector.
Overall this is a pretty safe Conservative seat – Labour require a 17% swing to win – and there is a sense from the demographics that the electorate here beyond the narrow A6 corridor conurbations is more entrenched in their voting behaviour – hence the relatively low swings here compared to other Derbyshire seats. For Labour to come close will require 1997 landslide conditions and a good tactical vote. But Labour won’t mind missing out here as this seat is a vote sink which enable both Derby North and Erewash to be ripe for recapture.
This constituency was created in 2010 – the 11th Derbyshire seat - and survives pretty much intact in the 2023 Review. In the 2000s the level of population and housing growth across Derby and Derbyshire had finally tipped the scales in favour of creating an 11th constituency. The housing growth in and around the Derby suburbs has meant since 1983 the City of Derby has been too large to accommodate just two constituencies, so it needs to release two or three of its wards for inclusion in a wider county constituency. From 1983 – 2010 the beneficiary was South Derbyshire which picked up Derby City wards located to the south and southwest of the city; in 2010 the Boundary Commissioners had to unpick the map to insert the 11th seat and this time it was the northern wards of Derby that held the key which ultimately led to the creation of Mid Derbyshire.
Mid Derbyshire covers three local government areas – Derby City; Amber Valley and Erewash. The Derby element is the most substantial comprising about 45% of the electorate. The Amber Valley wards add up to 35% with the Erewash wards comprising 20%. The three Derby wards included in Mid Derbyshire are Allestree, Oakwood and Spondon which were previously in Derby North BC – a key marginal seat. All three wards also shared another characteristic – over the past 20 years they have been the most reliable Conservative wards across Derby city. Their removal from Derby North made all the difference for Labour in 2010 so it is unsurprising to note that Labour were enthusiastic proponents of this Mid Derbyshire configuration back in 2007/8. Allestree Ward(11,000 electors) has a huge Tory pedigree; in the 1970s/80s it regularly voted 70-80% Conservative in local elections and in the 1996 all-outs it was the only ward in Derby to elect a full complement of Conservative councillors. Named after Allestree Park (one of a few local stately homes with parkland that got incorporated into the city) it is now a large suburban estate of 1960s/70s private family sized homes situated between the Kedleston Road and A6 Duffield Road on the west side of the A38. Its heritage means its age profile is a bit older than the rest of Derby – many families have now been here 40 – 50 years – and they are very reliable Conservative voters.
Oakwood and Spondon (both around 10,000 electors) are not geographically connected to Allestree and are located on the north-eastern side of Derby. Oakwood used to form part of the Breadsall ward, but that grew from some 9,000 elections in the 1970s to 16,000 in the late 1990s so needed to be revised. The growth here was also of large privately owned, family-sized housing which creates a certain homogeneity to this ward. Those with good wages seeking family homes during that 1980s/90s period were likely to arrive somewhere like Oakwood or Mickleover and with them came attitudes broadly sympathetic but not completely loyal to the Conservative Party. Oakwood Ward was created in 2002 and other than a brief flirtation with the Lib Dems in 2008 (poor candidate choice by the Tories) it has proved a very safe ward. Even in a challenging year such as 2023 the Conservatives were winning here by 40% - their best performance in the city. Spondon is different again to both Allestree and Oakwood; it looks east down the A52 and so has good links to the M1 and Nottingham but despite that it still maintains a village identity and somewhat parochial mentality despite its size. Labour were very competitive here in the 1980s/90s with some strong local campaigning candidates but since then the Conservatives have been comfortable victors at local level.
Looking at the Amber Valley elements of the seat, the A6 and the River Derwent provide the backbone for the journey north of Derby. Mid Derbyshire contains the (then) Amber Valley wards of Duffield and Belper North, Central, East and South (ward boundaries were changed for 2023). This was all previously located in the former West Derbyshire CC. Duffield is a very comfortable commuter village which was historically natural Tory territory, even during the nadir of the mid 1990s. That said, the Greens have worked the ward hard and finally got rewarded with a gain here in 2019. They have built well on this local activism and in 2023 took both seats in the new Duffield & Quarndon Ward by a margin of nearly 40%. However, this is unlikely to make more than a ripple at parliamentary level.
In the 2023 Review there is a minor boundary change with just over 3,000 electors from the old Amber Valley ward of South West Parishes being transferred from Derbyshire Dales CC to Mid Derbyshire. This is a collection of prosperous villages to the west of Duffield and northwest of Allestree. The most prominent landmark here is the elegant Robert Adam mansion Kedleston Hall. South West Parishes has always been reliably Conservative in local elections and its addition here will add around 1,000 votes to the notional Conservative majority.
Belper is a town based around the River Derwent which brought its early prosperity through the establishment of several textile mills. The railway which bisects the middle of the town through a deep cutting also brought stronger communications for industry and business but subsequently its proximity to Derby means it is a commuter town for Derby and beyond. The local economy has adjusted to its post-industrial existence mainly through retail, services and local SMEs. There is a good mixture of housing types here - some tight knit terraced housing in the centre and some small/cheaper build private housing in areas like Far Laund. Belper is famous for giving its name to a constituency in existence until 1983 (which from 1945-1970 had George Brown as its MP). However, this nomenclature is somewhat misleading as Belper town was the northern outpost of that seat which was from 1950 focused on the area south of Derby.
Belper is usually pretty sensitive to political trends and can be seen as classic marginal territory. Its results often deliver a cliff-hanger. At a county level the division has been won by Labour by 41 votes in 1993, 29 votes in 1997 and 28 votes in 2005. In 2013 Labour were ahead by 180; in 2017 the Conservatives by 124. In recent years (post 2015) there has been a subtle but distinct trend of a better than expected performance by Labour in local elections in Belper compared to the prevailing local and national trends. Is Belper changing demographics? Yes there is a bit of a shift as the cheaper housing draws others into the town. That said, Labour struggled here in 2023 because of the emergence of a Labour splinter group – the Belper Independents – which have established themselves winning several seats, plus in Belper South the Green activism has made its way up the A6 from Duffield. What is most notable is that despite this split in the left leaning vote, the Tories could not win a single seat.
The remaining territory that makes up Mid Derbyshire is on the north east and eastern side of Derby which originally came from Erewash CC. The Erewash district wards of West Hallam & Dale Abbey, Ockbrook & Borrowash and Little Eaton & Stanley are all comfortable and reasonably affluent commuter bases for either Derby or Nottingham. These are largely overgrown villages with private housing estates but some of this territory is also still distinctly rural. Unsurprisingly these are some of the most reliable Conservative wards at the local level with only a sole Independent managing to break through in 2023 in the 8 seats available. Removing these wards from Erewash CC in 2010 gave Labour a good few thousand votes boost in a marginal seat whilst merely adding to the majority here.
Mid Derbyshire is a logical creation given the challenge of the oversized Derby despite its odd shape. However, it does feel somewhat unloved. No sooner had Mid Derbyshire been born then the Boundary Commission were happy to see it dismembered. The ‘600 seat’ review in 2013 saw revised proposals that largely took Derbyshire back to a pre-2010 configuration. In the 2018 Review the seat was going to be split four ways: Belper to Derbyshire Dales/West Derbyshire whence it had come; Oakwood and Spondon to a new Derby East; Ockbrook & Borrowash back to Erewash CC and the remainder to be part of a substantially redrawn Amber Valley CC. For Mid Derbyshire to survive intact in 2023 with only minor changes feels like a miracle intervention by the boundary gods.
From its creation this was always going to be reasonably reliable Conservative seat with a notional majority of around 5,000 based on the 2005 GE. Subsequent elections have confirmed this is a solid Conservative seat with majorities of over 11,000 recorded in all four contests to date. From 2010 Mid Derbyshire has been represented by Pauline Latham. She is a long-standing resident in the constituency (living in the Erewash village of Little Eaton) but for her party political activity she has always focused on the city of Derby (where her husband was a prominent architect). She was first elected to Derbyshire County Council in a by-election in 1987 for Breadsall division and subsequently to Derby City Council. Having contested and lost the marginal Broxtowe CC in 2001 and then being placed third on the 2004 East Midlands Euro list (just missing out on election) it was little surprise to see her chosen to contest her home constituency. In 2024 she will be 76 and so is one of the less surprising MPs to announce their retirement at the next election. There was plenty of chatter that erstwhile Derbeian Lord David Frost would use this seat to make his transition to the Commons, but nothing came of that. Instead, the Conservatives have chosen Luke Gardiner, a Special Adviser in the No 10 Policy Unit who was previously Head of Delivery and Policy to the Mayor of the West Midlands. Labour have yet to select a candidate. The Lib Dems have selected Matlock-born Barry Holliday, who is currently working in the automotive and insurance sector.
Overall this is a pretty safe Conservative seat – Labour require a 17% swing to win – and there is a sense from the demographics that the electorate here beyond the narrow A6 corridor conurbations is more entrenched in their voting behaviour – hence the relatively low swings here compared to other Derbyshire seats. For Labour to come close will require 1997 landslide conditions and a good tactical vote. But Labour won’t mind missing out here as this seat is a vote sink which enable both Derby North and Erewash to be ripe for recapture.
