Post by bungle on Oct 15, 2023 21:49:43 GMT
Derby North
Derby North was first created for the 1950 General Election when the old two-seat Derby constituency was abolished. Although it has endured as a name for 70 years this seat has seen shifts in its boundaries throughout that time which has altered its space on the electoral spectrum from broadly Labour-leaning to genuine marginal and then back again to a degree. In 1979 it was featured on the BBC Election Night as ‘the seat to watch’ and it provided a cliff-hanger with Philip Whitehead holding on for Labour by 214 votes. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 the seat changed hands between Labour and the Conservatives – and it is likely that come 2024 this will happen again. The seat remains unchanged in the 2023 Review, despite previous proposals to radically change the constituency configurations across Derby.
Derby North is largely a suburban seat based around the planned expansion of Derby over the decades from the 1920s. The seat does not contain any of the city centre nor does it contain any of the large industry for which Derby is well known – BREL/Bombardier Rail or Rolls Royce. The majority of the seat comprises previous villages which have been expanded beyond all previous scale – Mickleover, Littleover, Chaddesden. There is also a large 1950s council estate at Mackworth which remains detached from the village of the same name. There are some more typical Victorian urban elements within the constituency: tight-knit terraces such as at St Lukes (Abbey Ward) and the Rowditch/Slack Lane area, but these do not dominate. To the north of the Ashbourne Road is the sprawling Darley ward which comprises a mix of housing styles and demographics – students and rental properties close to the city centre while further out at Darley Abbey is affluent housing stock with a distinctly village feel. Much of the housing within the Chaddesden wards is inter-war ex-corporation with a splash of modest-sized private housing whereas Mickleover has provided the focus for a relentless expansion of private family-sized housing since the 1960s.
The current boundaries were significantly altered in 2010 which created a strong advantage and opportunity for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Derby electorate can support around 2.4 seats so some city wards have often spilled over into surrounding county constituencies. From 1983 – 2010 South Derbyshire was the recipient of these but in 2010 the focus shifted to the north of the city. The strongest Conservative ward in the city – Allestree - was removed from Derby North and placed into the new creation of Mid Derbyshire. Two other Derby North wards were also removed to Mid Derbyshire – Oakwood and Spondon; these are also reliably Conservative in inclination, as confirmed in the 2023 local elections. The removal of these three wards saw compensation in the form of Mickleover and Littleover arriving from Derby South. Historically both Littleover and Mickleover were Conservative citadels but from the early 1990s this was eroded at the local level mainly through the increasing activism of the Liberal Democrats (although it was Labour who managed to win Mickleover in their apogee of 1995/1996).
This change becomes important in explaining the 3-way split which emerged in the 2010 election which was most uncharacteristic in the history of the constituency. With the Lib Dem vote largely consolidated in one seat and the national tide running with Clegg-mania the Lib Dems managed to obtain an impressive 28% of the vote, whereas Labour managed to win – just - with 33% and the Conservatives on 32%. If the 2010 election had been fought on the previous boundaries the Conservatives would have won by around 5,000, returning Derby North to its position when held by Greg Knight from 1983-1997. Since 2015 the Lib Dem challenge has faded significantly, such that they can only rely on support in Littleover (which they have won in all local elections since 1993) and Derby North is no longer any form of realistic target for them.
The rest of the seat indicates some of the recent wider electoral trends. The Mackworth ward was reliably Labour and formed a bedrock of its support at a national level alongside Abbey and the ex-Derwent ward. But Mackworth contains a higher % of the type of voter who flirted with UKIP and ‘lent’ votes to the Tories nationally. Labour did manage to regain 2 out of 3 seats here in the 2023 all out local elections but only by a small margin, indicating some unease. The new Chaddesden wards also had a default setting of ‘normally Labour’ but this has been broken over the past few years with the Conservatives polling exceptionally well in 2018 & 19 in the old Chaddesden Ward (around 60% of the vote) and winning Derwent. Labour did manage to take 3 out of 4 seats in the new Chaddesden North and West wards (mainly based on the ex-Derwent ward) in the 2023 elections but the Conservatives secured a solid if unspectacular win in Chaddesden East.
As a countertrend, Darley ward used to be the second most reliable Conservative ward after Allestree. However this has changed completely as both students, renters and also more public sector professionals and culturally left voters have found the Kedleston and Duffield Road areas a congenial birth. Labour now regularly secures Darley ward at a municipal level, although they lost one seat in 2021 by 1 vote. This type of growth in Labour support is also now detectable in Littleover although it has yet to topple the aforementioned Lib Dem stranglehold in local elections.
The sitting Conservative MP is Amanda Solloway, currently a junior minister. She was previously the MP from 2015 – 2017 and she plans to stand again. Her Labour opponent in 2015 and 2017 was Chris Williamson, a former Leader of Derby City Council. He was a strong supporter of the Corbyn leadership but became engulfed in allegations around antisemitism and was suspended twice in 2019. He eventually resigned from the party and fought Derby North as an independent in the 2019 election. He received 635 votes, lost his deposit and came bottom of the poll. Labour have selected Catherine Atkinson, a barrister, as their candidate for the next election. She had previously stood in the adjacent Erewash CC in 2015, 2017 and 2019. The Conservative victory by 2,500 in 2019 was solid but unexceptional given the wider circumstances so Labour will fancy their chances to re-take this seat next time
Derby North was first created for the 1950 General Election when the old two-seat Derby constituency was abolished. Although it has endured as a name for 70 years this seat has seen shifts in its boundaries throughout that time which has altered its space on the electoral spectrum from broadly Labour-leaning to genuine marginal and then back again to a degree. In 1979 it was featured on the BBC Election Night as ‘the seat to watch’ and it provided a cliff-hanger with Philip Whitehead holding on for Labour by 214 votes. In 2015, 2017 and 2019 the seat changed hands between Labour and the Conservatives – and it is likely that come 2024 this will happen again. The seat remains unchanged in the 2023 Review, despite previous proposals to radically change the constituency configurations across Derby.
Derby North is largely a suburban seat based around the planned expansion of Derby over the decades from the 1920s. The seat does not contain any of the city centre nor does it contain any of the large industry for which Derby is well known – BREL/Bombardier Rail or Rolls Royce. The majority of the seat comprises previous villages which have been expanded beyond all previous scale – Mickleover, Littleover, Chaddesden. There is also a large 1950s council estate at Mackworth which remains detached from the village of the same name. There are some more typical Victorian urban elements within the constituency: tight-knit terraces such as at St Lukes (Abbey Ward) and the Rowditch/Slack Lane area, but these do not dominate. To the north of the Ashbourne Road is the sprawling Darley ward which comprises a mix of housing styles and demographics – students and rental properties close to the city centre while further out at Darley Abbey is affluent housing stock with a distinctly village feel. Much of the housing within the Chaddesden wards is inter-war ex-corporation with a splash of modest-sized private housing whereas Mickleover has provided the focus for a relentless expansion of private family-sized housing since the 1960s.
The current boundaries were significantly altered in 2010 which created a strong advantage and opportunity for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Derby electorate can support around 2.4 seats so some city wards have often spilled over into surrounding county constituencies. From 1983 – 2010 South Derbyshire was the recipient of these but in 2010 the focus shifted to the north of the city. The strongest Conservative ward in the city – Allestree - was removed from Derby North and placed into the new creation of Mid Derbyshire. Two other Derby North wards were also removed to Mid Derbyshire – Oakwood and Spondon; these are also reliably Conservative in inclination, as confirmed in the 2023 local elections. The removal of these three wards saw compensation in the form of Mickleover and Littleover arriving from Derby South. Historically both Littleover and Mickleover were Conservative citadels but from the early 1990s this was eroded at the local level mainly through the increasing activism of the Liberal Democrats (although it was Labour who managed to win Mickleover in their apogee of 1995/1996).
This change becomes important in explaining the 3-way split which emerged in the 2010 election which was most uncharacteristic in the history of the constituency. With the Lib Dem vote largely consolidated in one seat and the national tide running with Clegg-mania the Lib Dems managed to obtain an impressive 28% of the vote, whereas Labour managed to win – just - with 33% and the Conservatives on 32%. If the 2010 election had been fought on the previous boundaries the Conservatives would have won by around 5,000, returning Derby North to its position when held by Greg Knight from 1983-1997. Since 2015 the Lib Dem challenge has faded significantly, such that they can only rely on support in Littleover (which they have won in all local elections since 1993) and Derby North is no longer any form of realistic target for them.
The rest of the seat indicates some of the recent wider electoral trends. The Mackworth ward was reliably Labour and formed a bedrock of its support at a national level alongside Abbey and the ex-Derwent ward. But Mackworth contains a higher % of the type of voter who flirted with UKIP and ‘lent’ votes to the Tories nationally. Labour did manage to regain 2 out of 3 seats here in the 2023 all out local elections but only by a small margin, indicating some unease. The new Chaddesden wards also had a default setting of ‘normally Labour’ but this has been broken over the past few years with the Conservatives polling exceptionally well in 2018 & 19 in the old Chaddesden Ward (around 60% of the vote) and winning Derwent. Labour did manage to take 3 out of 4 seats in the new Chaddesden North and West wards (mainly based on the ex-Derwent ward) in the 2023 elections but the Conservatives secured a solid if unspectacular win in Chaddesden East.
As a countertrend, Darley ward used to be the second most reliable Conservative ward after Allestree. However this has changed completely as both students, renters and also more public sector professionals and culturally left voters have found the Kedleston and Duffield Road areas a congenial birth. Labour now regularly secures Darley ward at a municipal level, although they lost one seat in 2021 by 1 vote. This type of growth in Labour support is also now detectable in Littleover although it has yet to topple the aforementioned Lib Dem stranglehold in local elections.
The sitting Conservative MP is Amanda Solloway, currently a junior minister. She was previously the MP from 2015 – 2017 and she plans to stand again. Her Labour opponent in 2015 and 2017 was Chris Williamson, a former Leader of Derby City Council. He was a strong supporter of the Corbyn leadership but became engulfed in allegations around antisemitism and was suspended twice in 2019. He eventually resigned from the party and fought Derby North as an independent in the 2019 election. He received 635 votes, lost his deposit and came bottom of the poll. Labour have selected Catherine Atkinson, a barrister, as their candidate for the next election. She had previously stood in the adjacent Erewash CC in 2015, 2017 and 2019. The Conservative victory by 2,500 in 2019 was solid but unexceptional given the wider circumstances so Labour will fancy their chances to re-take this seat next time
