Post by matureleft on Oct 15, 2023 14:17:25 GMT
Derby has been divided between constituencies called North and South since 1950 (before then the city was a two member constituency). The precise boundaries have varied substantially, including which city wards lie in a constituency centred outside the city and, at times, the relationship of the description North and South to the actual boundaries has been arguable. The boundaries that applied between 2010 and 2019 elections covered the southern side of the city, its centre and its south-east. The previous version contained much of the west!
With whatever boundaries it has returned a Labour MP. However that hasn't always been straightforward. Margaret Beckett has served continuously since 1983 after losing her Lincoln seat in 1979. Her first election saw her hold the seat with a margin of only 421. She has always claimed that that and her Lincoln experience made her fight the seat as a marginal. In 2017, in the initial cautious Labour strategy, resources were directed to defending the seat even though she had had a 22% lead in 2015, such was the alarm at national poll data. In 2019, seemingly largely from a fall in turnout from 2017, her majority fell to 14%.
The seat contains Arboretum and Normanton Wards, inner city, often terraced, private and rented housing with majorities of the population coming from minority communities. That includes a substantial East European presence. These areas have often been the initial destination for migrants to our country who then move on to better quality housing elsewhere in the city as they prosper. Sinfin Ward, which contains the largest of the Rolls-Royce operations in the city, has a more mixed population and more public sector housing. All these wards generally return Labour councillors with large majorities, the exceptions being when selection and other issues within and between communities produce normally short-term disturbance to the trend. Blagreaves ward, also in the south, is more affluent and has tended recently to return Liberal Democrats, with occasional Labour success.
Stretching south eastwards are the wards of Alvaston, Boulton and Chellaston. Alvaston has been, until fairly recently, a reasonably easy Labour win. However a former Labour councillor joined UKIP and has applied his undoubted energy to the ward and, latterly, to its neighbour, Boulton (which has had a history of some localist challenge to Labour). He has since joined Reform UK but the well-organised and quite localist emphasis has remained the same. At local elections this has delivered a series of victories in wards that have a relatively small minority presence, a fairly high proportion of current or former public housing (more in Boulton) with the balance being relatively economical private housing. Alvaston has more terraced housing than Boulton in its northern end and is the base for the formerly Bombardier railway engineering works , now owned by Alstom, and other railway associated businesses (British Rail Engineering had one of its main operations here). Evidence of the 2019 General Election suggests that most of the UKIP local support divided between the main parties and that probably Labour carried both wards fairly comfortably.
Completing the constituency is Chellaston ward, stretching to the southern edge of the city. This ward is historically generally Conservative with Labour successes in exceptional years and through the 2000s. Defections of key figures to the Conservatives have undermined Labour progress but there is a sense of gentle long-term Labour drift. The local comprehensive is extremely successful, drawing pupils from around Chellaston and the adjacent areas of South Derbyshire. From 1983 until 2010 both Chellaston and Boulton wards formed part of South Derbyshire constituency.
Only Blagreaves ward has been a centre of Liberal Democrat activism and the party only narrowly saved its deposit in the 2019 General election.
The reference earlier to the inner city wards being the initial point of entry for migrants and their families begs the question of where aspirational and increasingly wealthy families of migrant origin move. There are many successful businesses and professional activities in Derby based on their enterprise and homes near to those are natural. Thus many of the more affluent suburbs are becoming more ethnically mixed, particularly those with successful secondary schools. In this constituency that would include Chellaston School. The local Conservatives have not been entirely unsuccessful in drawing votes from migrant communities (here mostly of Sikh or Muslim faiths) but generally, regardless of affluence, they favour Labour in this seat.
The economic base of the city is changing. Historically Derby was a major engineering centre for railways, aircraft engines and other power systems with large skilled and fairly well-paid workforces. These industries mostly remain but employing far fewer people than formerly (and with a balance shifting toward service and support rather than manufacture).
The recent local politics of the city has been difficult for Labour. The party had generally been the dominant force in local government since reorganisation in the 1970s. But since the turn of the century the City Council has not been controlled by any party in most years, and that remains the position after the latest elections in 2023. There is a Labour minority council. These elections were “all out” based on new boundaries (actually pretty modestly revised, but with some name changes) and Labour might have hoped for control in these circumstances, with the national picture.
Within the constituency Labour maintained its grip on the inner city wards – Arboretum and Normanton - without serious challenge. They took all 3 seats in Blagreaves ward fairly narrowly from the Liberal Democrats, probably benefiting from a modest transfer of voters from Normanton. They comfortably held Sinfin. Chellaston and Shelton Lock (as that ward is now called) was won by 3 Independents. One Independent, and his wife, topped the poll. He was originally a Labour councillor (but essentially a localist) who joined the Conservatives in the late 2000s and was deselected by them some years later. Their running mate ran well behind but still fairly narrowly defeated the Conservatives and Labour.
Alvaston North and South (the latter essentially the former Boulton with a small addition from Chellaston) were won by Reform UK over Labour. The Conservatives have often assisted UKIP and then Reform candidates by either not running at all or running weak candidates (both Alvaston and Boulton have been held by the Conservatives on local issues from time to time so their support is not trivial). This time they ran one weak candidate for the 3 seats available in each ward.
The Boundary Commission decided to leave the boundaries of Derby South unchanged at this review. That has meant adhering to the former ward boundaries and names. The changes made within Derby South were small, transferring modest numbers of electors between wards to balance populations but this will be an inconvenience for those organising campaigns.
Margaret Beckett announced her intended retirement in March 2022. The local party has selected Baggy Shanker, locally born in Normanton and having worked at Celanese in Derby (now closed) and Rolls-Royce as their candidate here for the next election. He is also the leader of Derby City Council. This can be a problematic combination.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 13.3% 539/650
Owner-occupied 54.4% 550/650
Private rented 18.6% 153/650
Social rented 24.9% 113/650
White 69.0% 579/650
Black 4.5% 114/650
Asian 20.6% 43/650
Managerial & professional 21.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.9%
Degree level 19.3% 542/650
No qualifications 28.7% 130/650
Students 8.6% 190/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 52.8% 480/573
Private rented 24.3% 125/573
Social rented 22.9% 98/573
White 61.5%
Black 5.5%
Asian 24.1%
Managerial & professional 21.8% 534/573
Routine & Semi-routine 31.5% 54/573
Degree level 25.4% 471/573
No qualifications 25.0% 52/573
General Election 2019: Derby South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Margaret Beckett 21,690 51.1 -7.2
Conservative Ed Barker 15,671 36.9 +3.4
Liberal Democrats Joe Naitta 2,621 6.2 +3.5
Brexit Party Timothy Prosser 2,480 5.8 N
Lab Majority 6,019 14.2 -10.6
Turnout 42,462 58.1 -6.7
Labour hold
Swing 5.3 Lab to C
