Post by Robert Waller on Oct 15, 2023 10:09:57 GMT
Credit to Pete Whitehead for the second paragraph, on boundary changes.
In the extensive boundary changes in the southern half of Hampshire one constituency disappears entirely: Meon Valley. However, the quota of ‘Valley’ names is maintained by the creation of a new seat with a title never before used by a Boundary Commission. This is Hamble Valley. Yet although it sounds romantic, named after a famed waterway that has ‘starred’ in a much loved television series, this is unlike Meon Valley in some significant ways. It is not, in fact, a large stretch of beautiful rural countryside, but rather a fairly compact and rather built up area consisting largely of 20th century suburbia, with a fair amount even more modern than that, surprisingly densely packed together and populated, with few fields, woods, and hills to separate the communities.
The western half of Fareham (36,000 voters in Titchfield, Warsash, Sarisbury etc) is merged with almost as many voters in the Southern half of Eastleigh (Botley, Burlesdon, Hamble, Hedge End). Fareham provides a plurality of voters in the new seat of Hamble Valley but not a majority as the balance is made up of another 4,500 voters in Whiteley & Shedfield from Meon Valley.
The River Hamble rises near Bishop’s Waltham, which is indeed in pleasant rural Hampshire. But the constituency does not include this most inland section, which was in Meon Valley and has been switched to Winchester, even though the whole river is little more than 6 miles in length, before it flows into Southampton Water. Rather the first place included is the ward of Botley, where the river becomes tidal about half way along its length. Then it passes by Bursledon and Sarisbury to Hamble-le-Rice and Warsash. Yes, this is indeed the setting of Howard’s Way (1985-90), which was filmed in all those and Swanwick too, so there are elements of the picturesque, such as the river front at Bursledon around the Jolly Sailor pub and the real life Elephant Boatyard.
However, more of the electorate is included in two blocs not actually on the river itself. One is the Southampton exurb of Hedge End, which has two wards totalling over 16,000 voters and a population of 23,000 in 2021, which makes it the largest community in the new constituency. This had only been around 1,000 in the 1950s. The development was stimulated by the building of the M27 motorway round the north eastern edge of Southampton, and recognised by the opening of a new railway station on 9 May 1990. In 1992 the village acquired town status. Indeed in the initial proposals of the Boundary Commission published in 2021, this constituency was to be named Hedge End. However the rise of Hedge End proved resistible, and due to a large number of submissions during the consultation suggesting the name was not representative of the whole seat, its name was changed to Hamble Valley in the provisional and final reports.
The other centre of population though perhaps of even less widely known names than Hedge End, is clearly visible from the map below. This is the Park Gate – Locks Heath – Titchfield Common grouping, which counted together has nearly 19,000 electors. One wonders how well known these names are outside the immediate area.
So, a new constituency without a clear focus or core, but it does have a general character. mostly a set of residential small towns and large villages, with a bit of agriculture (strawberries, probably, given the prominence of this area in the listed ‘pick your own’ farms within Hampshire), and of course some boating based at Hamble and elsewhere on the lower reaches of the river. So, employment is heavily private sector, there is no major educational institution, comfortably off, but not wealthy, fully employed, not particularly highly educated, 95% white in 2021. While some parts (Botley, old town Netley, Sarisbury Green and Titchfield) have older housing. hence probably older populations too, the newer housing is primarily occupied by younger families (it is mostly housing rather than flats). Whiteley has a new retail park, Whiteley Village right off the M27. Judging by house building visible between the east side of Southampton and the junctions (8 and 9) of the M27, there is more growth to come in those areas (so the constituency will probably need paring down again next time). Overall these indicators suggest a favourable seat for the Conservatives as they have become – comfortably off, but not wealthy, private sector jobs, fully employed, not particularly educated.
These assumptions have some support in recent election results. Six of the wards are transferred from Fareham constituency and borough. In the most recent municipal elections there five of them were won easily by the Conservative candidates – with leads of 27% in Locks Heath, 29% in Park Gate, 35% in Titchfield, 38% in Sarisbury, and 45% in Warsash. The only missed was Titchfield Common – where an Independent won, but the Tories were a long way ahead of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Fareham constituency was held by Suella Braverman in December 2019 with a majority of over 26,000.
Five of the wards, though, are from Eastleigh borough, which has been a Liberal Democrat stronghold, in their continuous control since 1995, and a constituency they have won on six occasions. Yes, in May 2023 the Lib Dems did win all five Eastleigh wards within Hamble Valley, with percentages ranging from 30% in Hedge End South to 54% in Bursledon & Hound North. The only one of these wards that has actually elected a Conservative in the 21st century is Hedge End South, and that only on two isolated occasions (2002 and 2015).There is also one ward that is transferred from Meon Valley, Whiteley & Shedfield, which was also won by the Lib Dems in 2023. However it should be remembered that in December 2019 the Conservatives won Eastleigh in the general election with a majority of 15,607. The Tories will, therefore, start the first parliamentary contest in Hamble Valley with a notional lead of over 22,000.
Therefore in the end there is likely to be one key similarity between the disappearing Meon Valley and newly created Hamble Valley constituencies. Despite those long standing and consistent local election results in the Eastleigh borough section in favour of the Liberal Democrats, and its parliamentary history of competitiveness, overall Hamble Valley also looks very like a safe Conservative seat. If so, elections here will have none of the drama of Howard’s Way.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 19.6% 275/575
Owner occupied 76.2% 38 /575
Private rented 14.1% 477/575
Social rented 9.7% 526/575
White 94.9% 191/575
Black 0.7% 382/575
Asian 2.2% 370/575
Managerial & professional 42.8% 70/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.6% 453/575
Degree level 35.5% 192/575
No qualifications 12.1% 537/575
Students 4.9% 419/575
Boundary Changes
Hamble Valley consists of
46.1% of Fareham
42.5% of Eastleigh
6.1% of Meon Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_326_Hamble%20Valley_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results (Rallings and Thrasher)
In the extensive boundary changes in the southern half of Hampshire one constituency disappears entirely: Meon Valley. However, the quota of ‘Valley’ names is maintained by the creation of a new seat with a title never before used by a Boundary Commission. This is Hamble Valley. Yet although it sounds romantic, named after a famed waterway that has ‘starred’ in a much loved television series, this is unlike Meon Valley in some significant ways. It is not, in fact, a large stretch of beautiful rural countryside, but rather a fairly compact and rather built up area consisting largely of 20th century suburbia, with a fair amount even more modern than that, surprisingly densely packed together and populated, with few fields, woods, and hills to separate the communities.
The western half of Fareham (36,000 voters in Titchfield, Warsash, Sarisbury etc) is merged with almost as many voters in the Southern half of Eastleigh (Botley, Burlesdon, Hamble, Hedge End). Fareham provides a plurality of voters in the new seat of Hamble Valley but not a majority as the balance is made up of another 4,500 voters in Whiteley & Shedfield from Meon Valley.
The River Hamble rises near Bishop’s Waltham, which is indeed in pleasant rural Hampshire. But the constituency does not include this most inland section, which was in Meon Valley and has been switched to Winchester, even though the whole river is little more than 6 miles in length, before it flows into Southampton Water. Rather the first place included is the ward of Botley, where the river becomes tidal about half way along its length. Then it passes by Bursledon and Sarisbury to Hamble-le-Rice and Warsash. Yes, this is indeed the setting of Howard’s Way (1985-90), which was filmed in all those and Swanwick too, so there are elements of the picturesque, such as the river front at Bursledon around the Jolly Sailor pub and the real life Elephant Boatyard.
However, more of the electorate is included in two blocs not actually on the river itself. One is the Southampton exurb of Hedge End, which has two wards totalling over 16,000 voters and a population of 23,000 in 2021, which makes it the largest community in the new constituency. This had only been around 1,000 in the 1950s. The development was stimulated by the building of the M27 motorway round the north eastern edge of Southampton, and recognised by the opening of a new railway station on 9 May 1990. In 1992 the village acquired town status. Indeed in the initial proposals of the Boundary Commission published in 2021, this constituency was to be named Hedge End. However the rise of Hedge End proved resistible, and due to a large number of submissions during the consultation suggesting the name was not representative of the whole seat, its name was changed to Hamble Valley in the provisional and final reports.
The other centre of population though perhaps of even less widely known names than Hedge End, is clearly visible from the map below. This is the Park Gate – Locks Heath – Titchfield Common grouping, which counted together has nearly 19,000 electors. One wonders how well known these names are outside the immediate area.
So, a new constituency without a clear focus or core, but it does have a general character. mostly a set of residential small towns and large villages, with a bit of agriculture (strawberries, probably, given the prominence of this area in the listed ‘pick your own’ farms within Hampshire), and of course some boating based at Hamble and elsewhere on the lower reaches of the river. So, employment is heavily private sector, there is no major educational institution, comfortably off, but not wealthy, fully employed, not particularly highly educated, 95% white in 2021. While some parts (Botley, old town Netley, Sarisbury Green and Titchfield) have older housing. hence probably older populations too, the newer housing is primarily occupied by younger families (it is mostly housing rather than flats). Whiteley has a new retail park, Whiteley Village right off the M27. Judging by house building visible between the east side of Southampton and the junctions (8 and 9) of the M27, there is more growth to come in those areas (so the constituency will probably need paring down again next time). Overall these indicators suggest a favourable seat for the Conservatives as they have become – comfortably off, but not wealthy, private sector jobs, fully employed, not particularly educated.
These assumptions have some support in recent election results. Six of the wards are transferred from Fareham constituency and borough. In the most recent municipal elections there five of them were won easily by the Conservative candidates – with leads of 27% in Locks Heath, 29% in Park Gate, 35% in Titchfield, 38% in Sarisbury, and 45% in Warsash. The only missed was Titchfield Common – where an Independent won, but the Tories were a long way ahead of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Fareham constituency was held by Suella Braverman in December 2019 with a majority of over 26,000.
Five of the wards, though, are from Eastleigh borough, which has been a Liberal Democrat stronghold, in their continuous control since 1995, and a constituency they have won on six occasions. Yes, in May 2023 the Lib Dems did win all five Eastleigh wards within Hamble Valley, with percentages ranging from 30% in Hedge End South to 54% in Bursledon & Hound North. The only one of these wards that has actually elected a Conservative in the 21st century is Hedge End South, and that only on two isolated occasions (2002 and 2015).There is also one ward that is transferred from Meon Valley, Whiteley & Shedfield, which was also won by the Lib Dems in 2023. However it should be remembered that in December 2019 the Conservatives won Eastleigh in the general election with a majority of 15,607. The Tories will, therefore, start the first parliamentary contest in Hamble Valley with a notional lead of over 22,000.
Therefore in the end there is likely to be one key similarity between the disappearing Meon Valley and newly created Hamble Valley constituencies. Despite those long standing and consistent local election results in the Eastleigh borough section in favour of the Liberal Democrats, and its parliamentary history of competitiveness, overall Hamble Valley also looks very like a safe Conservative seat. If so, elections here will have none of the drama of Howard’s Way.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 19.6% 275/575
Owner occupied 76.2% 38 /575
Private rented 14.1% 477/575
Social rented 9.7% 526/575
White 94.9% 191/575
Black 0.7% 382/575
Asian 2.2% 370/575
Managerial & professional 42.8% 70/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.6% 453/575
Degree level 35.5% 192/575
No qualifications 12.1% 537/575
Students 4.9% 419/575
Boundary Changes
Hamble Valley consists of
46.1% of Fareham
42.5% of Eastleigh
6.1% of Meon Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_326_Hamble%20Valley_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 35497 | 62.2% |
| LD | 12009 | 21.1% |
| Lab | 7739 | 13.6% |
| Grn | 1796 | 3.2% |
| Majority | 23488 | 41.2% |
I’m sure that would go down really well.