Glastonbury and Somerton
Oct 15, 2023 8:22:07 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 3 more like this
Post by andrewp on Oct 15, 2023 8:22:07 GMT
With credit to November_Rain for information about Glastonbury and Street from his Wells constituency profile from round 1 of the constituency profiles
At the time that the Boundary commission undertook its review of parliamentary boundaries in the 2019-24 parliament all 5 of the constituencies in the administrative county of Somerset were over quota, some by quite some distance and the county was ‘entitled’ to 5.8 parliamentary constituencies. Had the county been treated alone it would have been allocated a 6th constituency which would probably have emerged in the middle of the county and quite possibly would have included Somerton, the town that gave its name to the county and which was the county town in the 14th century. Unfortunately, however, both of Somerset’s neighbouring areas- Devon and the area that used to make up Avon -had a mathematical entitlement that was awkwardly close to including .5 of a parliamentary constituency and the Boundary Commission therefore decided to treat Devon, Somerset and the former Avon as a group within which to build constituencies. Somerset therefore goes from having 5 constituencies wholly within its current borders to having 4 whole constituencies and parts of 3 others.
Almost inevitably one of the constituencies that is most changed is the one in the centre of the county - Somerton and Frome, which dates in its current form from 1983. Somerton and Frome attracted perhaps its greatest political prominence in 2023 when, following the resignation of Conservative MP David Warburton after a string of financial and sexual allegations, the Liberal Democrats overturned a 19,000 Conservative majority to win a by election by 11000 votes.
Somerton and Frome will essentially be split in half in 2024. About 37,000 voters ( 44% of the current electorate) around Frome move into the new Frome and East Somerset seat. This is essentially the northern part of Somerton and Frome, that part taken from the former Mendip District council area. The slightly larger half- 47000 voters (56%), made up of those electors in the former South Somerset District Council area move into this Glastonbury and Somerton constituency, which is then topped up with 17000 voters from the Wells constituency- essentially the towns of Glastonbury and Street- and 6000 from the Yeovil constituency from villages close to Yeovil itself in Ilchester and the Hamdons.
There is an arguable silver lining in that Somerton and Frome was a dog leg seat stretching quite a long way across the middle of the county and this seat actually feels like a more compact and, on the whole, logical unit, stretching from the edge of the Somerset levels at Langport and Street across to the Dorset and Wiltshire borders. If it had been given a compass point name it would probably have been called Mid Somerset or South East Somerset. This is probably the most rural of the newly configured constituencies in Somerset. The largest town is actually Street ( population 9000) followed by Glastonbury (7000) and then Wincanton (4000), Somerton (3000), Langport (3000) Castle Cary (2500) and Bruton (2000)
This is an older and small town seat. It ranks 28th nationally for the percentage of people employed in small businesses and is just outside the top 50 in terms of having an older age profile with 48.9% of people being aged over 50.
The largest town of Street is perhaps best known for being where the Clarks family made their mark by manufacturing shoes. The Clark family were Liberals and were known for being benevolent employers. Such was the local dominance of the business that it really was the only business in town, with the town growing hugely in the 19th and early 20th century with grey stone houses being built for factory workers. Although the factory has been closed, it’s headquarters are still based in the town and the redundant factory buildings are now Clarks Village, a retail centre famous for it’s Christmas shopping events
Neignbouring Glastonbury needs no introduction. An attraction due to the myths and legends related to Glastonbury Tor, this is a popular destination for those with new-age beliefs.
Wincanton, a hilly market town on the A303 in the South East of the county, famous for its racecourse. The other towns are Castle Cary, Langport, Bruton and Somerton itself. These are picturesque Somerset market towns. Most of the towns would have been carried by the Lib Dem’s at General elections between 1997 and 2010, and by the Conservatives since 2015. Bruton in particular, given its proximity to the A303 and being 2 hours from London on a good day, is now becoming a weekend second home spot for wealthy Londoners and has been considered one of the most fashionable places in the UK, with Cameron Mackintosh, Kevin McCloud, Stella McCartney and Nicholas Cage having homes there. It has acquired the nickname of Notting Brue.
Most of these towns are politically competitive between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrat’s at local elections. In the Liberal Democrat’s successful Somerset county council election in 2022, most of the divisions here were marginal. Overall the Lib Dem’s were probably about 2000 votes ahead in the constituency, The only division where the margin of victory was comfortable was Street for the Liberal Democrat’s. The Lib Dem’s narrowly won Curry Rivel and Langport, Somerton, Martock and Blackmore Vale. The Conservatives won Wincanton and Bruton, and Glastonbury and Castle Cary were split between the Lib Dem’s and Conservatives.
Somerton and Frome had a history of marginality between the Conseravtives and Lib Dem’s between 1992 and 2010. In 1997 Frome optician and former Somerset County council leader David Heath gained the seat but by only by 130 votes- actually not one of the Lib Dem’s stronger gains that year. David Heath then embarked on an 18 year Harry Houdini act winning by 668 in 2001, 812 in 2005, and finally by a whopping 1817 in 2010.
On these new boundaries, Glastonbury and Somerton would likely have also been a Lib Dem held marginal constituency from 1997-2015 when it would have fallen to the Conservatives.
This seat probably has a notional Conservative majority of between 25 and 30% and had the Somerton and Frome by election not happened, this seat would likely have ranked behind Taunton & Wellington and Wells & Mendip Hills as Liberal Democrat targets in Somerset. However they now have a sitting MP for more than half of this seat, and I suspect that Sarah Dyke will choose to fight this constituency so that will increase the prominence given to it by the Liberal Democrat’s. The Conservatives have selected losing Somerton and Frome by election candidate Faye Purbrick here, so it will be likely be a second contest between Sarah Dyke and Faye Purbrick in 2024. I suspect it will be a competitive contest with Purbrick having some chance in round 2.
At the time that the Boundary commission undertook its review of parliamentary boundaries in the 2019-24 parliament all 5 of the constituencies in the administrative county of Somerset were over quota, some by quite some distance and the county was ‘entitled’ to 5.8 parliamentary constituencies. Had the county been treated alone it would have been allocated a 6th constituency which would probably have emerged in the middle of the county and quite possibly would have included Somerton, the town that gave its name to the county and which was the county town in the 14th century. Unfortunately, however, both of Somerset’s neighbouring areas- Devon and the area that used to make up Avon -had a mathematical entitlement that was awkwardly close to including .5 of a parliamentary constituency and the Boundary Commission therefore decided to treat Devon, Somerset and the former Avon as a group within which to build constituencies. Somerset therefore goes from having 5 constituencies wholly within its current borders to having 4 whole constituencies and parts of 3 others.
Almost inevitably one of the constituencies that is most changed is the one in the centre of the county - Somerton and Frome, which dates in its current form from 1983. Somerton and Frome attracted perhaps its greatest political prominence in 2023 when, following the resignation of Conservative MP David Warburton after a string of financial and sexual allegations, the Liberal Democrats overturned a 19,000 Conservative majority to win a by election by 11000 votes.
Somerton and Frome will essentially be split in half in 2024. About 37,000 voters ( 44% of the current electorate) around Frome move into the new Frome and East Somerset seat. This is essentially the northern part of Somerton and Frome, that part taken from the former Mendip District council area. The slightly larger half- 47000 voters (56%), made up of those electors in the former South Somerset District Council area move into this Glastonbury and Somerton constituency, which is then topped up with 17000 voters from the Wells constituency- essentially the towns of Glastonbury and Street- and 6000 from the Yeovil constituency from villages close to Yeovil itself in Ilchester and the Hamdons.
There is an arguable silver lining in that Somerton and Frome was a dog leg seat stretching quite a long way across the middle of the county and this seat actually feels like a more compact and, on the whole, logical unit, stretching from the edge of the Somerset levels at Langport and Street across to the Dorset and Wiltshire borders. If it had been given a compass point name it would probably have been called Mid Somerset or South East Somerset. This is probably the most rural of the newly configured constituencies in Somerset. The largest town is actually Street ( population 9000) followed by Glastonbury (7000) and then Wincanton (4000), Somerton (3000), Langport (3000) Castle Cary (2500) and Bruton (2000)
This is an older and small town seat. It ranks 28th nationally for the percentage of people employed in small businesses and is just outside the top 50 in terms of having an older age profile with 48.9% of people being aged over 50.
The largest town of Street is perhaps best known for being where the Clarks family made their mark by manufacturing shoes. The Clark family were Liberals and were known for being benevolent employers. Such was the local dominance of the business that it really was the only business in town, with the town growing hugely in the 19th and early 20th century with grey stone houses being built for factory workers. Although the factory has been closed, it’s headquarters are still based in the town and the redundant factory buildings are now Clarks Village, a retail centre famous for it’s Christmas shopping events
Neignbouring Glastonbury needs no introduction. An attraction due to the myths and legends related to Glastonbury Tor, this is a popular destination for those with new-age beliefs.
Wincanton, a hilly market town on the A303 in the South East of the county, famous for its racecourse. The other towns are Castle Cary, Langport, Bruton and Somerton itself. These are picturesque Somerset market towns. Most of the towns would have been carried by the Lib Dem’s at General elections between 1997 and 2010, and by the Conservatives since 2015. Bruton in particular, given its proximity to the A303 and being 2 hours from London on a good day, is now becoming a weekend second home spot for wealthy Londoners and has been considered one of the most fashionable places in the UK, with Cameron Mackintosh, Kevin McCloud, Stella McCartney and Nicholas Cage having homes there. It has acquired the nickname of Notting Brue.
Most of these towns are politically competitive between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrat’s at local elections. In the Liberal Democrat’s successful Somerset county council election in 2022, most of the divisions here were marginal. Overall the Lib Dem’s were probably about 2000 votes ahead in the constituency, The only division where the margin of victory was comfortable was Street for the Liberal Democrat’s. The Lib Dem’s narrowly won Curry Rivel and Langport, Somerton, Martock and Blackmore Vale. The Conservatives won Wincanton and Bruton, and Glastonbury and Castle Cary were split between the Lib Dem’s and Conservatives.
Somerton and Frome had a history of marginality between the Conseravtives and Lib Dem’s between 1992 and 2010. In 1997 Frome optician and former Somerset County council leader David Heath gained the seat but by only by 130 votes- actually not one of the Lib Dem’s stronger gains that year. David Heath then embarked on an 18 year Harry Houdini act winning by 668 in 2001, 812 in 2005, and finally by a whopping 1817 in 2010.
On these new boundaries, Glastonbury and Somerton would likely have also been a Lib Dem held marginal constituency from 1997-2015 when it would have fallen to the Conservatives.
This seat probably has a notional Conservative majority of between 25 and 30% and had the Somerton and Frome by election not happened, this seat would likely have ranked behind Taunton & Wellington and Wells & Mendip Hills as Liberal Democrat targets in Somerset. However they now have a sitting MP for more than half of this seat, and I suspect that Sarah Dyke will choose to fight this constituency so that will increase the prominence given to it by the Liberal Democrat’s. The Conservatives have selected losing Somerton and Frome by election candidate Faye Purbrick here, so it will be likely be a second contest between Sarah Dyke and Faye Purbrick in 2024. I suspect it will be a competitive contest with Purbrick having some chance in round 2.
