Post by John Chanin on Oct 13, 2023 11:16:37 GMT
Blaby District, like Harborough District, is the right size for a seat of its own, but as usual the Boundary Commission has given priority to minimum change. Having said which, there are still considerable changes to this seat, renamed South Leicestershire at the last boundary review. It has now lost the whole of the north of the District - basically Leicester suburbs, with 11,000 voters in Braunston and Thorpe Astley now joining Glenfield and Leicester Forest in the Mid Leicestershire seat.
The rest of Blaby District can be divided into two parts. There are still some outer Leicester suburbs in the seat at Glen Parva and Fosse Park - middle-class, owner-occupied, and with many less asians than other parts of the city. This section accounts for less than 7000 voters. To the south, separated from the city by the river Sence, and east of the M1, is an sizeable urban settlement which is best considered as an exurb, and which looks to Leicester. Blaby is the central town, but runs together with Whetstone and Countesthorpe. Most development is post war, and the area is thoroughly middle-class and white throughout, and mostly owner-occupied, although there are a few council tenants on the south side of Blaby. There are some 18,000 electors here. West of the M1 is another similar exurb with Enderby, Narborough and Littlethorpe running together with around 10,000 voters. In total these urban areas account for half the seat, and are normally Conservative at local level but not overwhelmingly so. At the local elections in 2023 the Liberal Democrats picked up 7 councillors in this section, dead heating with the Conservatives, with their main strength adjoining their stronghold in Wigston to the east. There is no Labour presence at local level, although they undoubtedly have a sizable vote at General elections.
The southern part of Blaby District is more rural, and much of it looks to Hinckley rather than Leicester. This is agricultural country on the Leicestershire plain, and it accounts for another 11,000 voters, and is as usual monolithically Conservative with high managerial occupations, but like most rural areas, and indeed the rest of the seat, not a high level of qualifications.
The Blaby seat was created in 1974 from a Harborough seat whose electorate had swelled to over 100,000, as a result of the expansion of the Leicester suburbs, exurbs, and commuter villages. However to bring it up to size it still required a substantial element of what became Harborough District. This area, based on the small town of Lutterworth on the Warwickshire and Northamptonshire borders, and the overgrown village of Broughton-Astley, with surrounding countryside, accounts for 22,000 voters. Lutterworth has a population of 10,000 and is an old market town, sitting between the M69 and the A5 where there is a huge distribution centre providing many jobs. It is demographically similar to the exurbs to the north, but has a little more council housing, and is politically competitive, with Labour and Liberal Democrat councillors as well as, or since 2023 instead of, Conservatives. Broughton-Astley to the north, between Hinckley and Blaby, is a little smaller, a post-war sprawl, and a little down market on the north side, where Liberal Democrats are competitive, but thoroughly middle-class on the south side. The two towns are surrounded by sparsely populated agricultural country, similar to that on the Blaby side, which contains the highest proportion of managerial workers and degree holders in the seat, and is safely Conservative. To compensate for the loss of Braunston the seat has gained more sparsely populated rural territory between Lutterworth and Harborough, the village of Fleckney accounting for more than half of the 6000 voters transferred.
Major changes were originally proposed for this part of the county. Harborough was to be severed from Oadby & Wigston, and to form a seat coterminous with the District Council, gaining Lutterworth from South Leicestershire. Meanwhile the Blaby/Whetstone/ Countesthorpe exurb was to be linked with Oadby & Wigston, which would have made a lot of sense as uniting a semi-urban sprawl looking to Leicester, very similar to Mid Leicestershire on the other side of the city. Unfortunately this sensible plan was abandoned following consultation in favour of much more limited change.
Overall this adds up to a safe Conservative seat, but not an overwhelmingly safe one. The substantial majorities in 2005 and 2010 were due to split opposition, with the Conservatives getting less than 50% of the vote, and Labour were only around 12% behind in 1997 and 2001. However the boundary changes will make it much safer with Braunston transferred out. The most famous MP here was Nigel Lawson, who represented the seat from its creation in 1974 until 1992. The present MP here since 2015 is Alberto Costa, a Scottish solicitor of Italian descent.
Census data: Owner-occupied 79% (14/573 in England & Wales), private rented 12% (557th), social rented 10% (532nd).
: White 94%(216th), Black 1%(375th), South Asian 2%(314th), Mixed 2%(309th), Other 1%(479th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (190th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (411th)
: Degree level 32%(301st), Minimal qualifications 25%(372nd)
: Students 5% (403rd), Over 65- 21% (210th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 92% from Sth Leicestershire, and 8% from Harborough
86% of the old seat is in the new one, with 14% going to Mid Leicestershire
The rest of Blaby District can be divided into two parts. There are still some outer Leicester suburbs in the seat at Glen Parva and Fosse Park - middle-class, owner-occupied, and with many less asians than other parts of the city. This section accounts for less than 7000 voters. To the south, separated from the city by the river Sence, and east of the M1, is an sizeable urban settlement which is best considered as an exurb, and which looks to Leicester. Blaby is the central town, but runs together with Whetstone and Countesthorpe. Most development is post war, and the area is thoroughly middle-class and white throughout, and mostly owner-occupied, although there are a few council tenants on the south side of Blaby. There are some 18,000 electors here. West of the M1 is another similar exurb with Enderby, Narborough and Littlethorpe running together with around 10,000 voters. In total these urban areas account for half the seat, and are normally Conservative at local level but not overwhelmingly so. At the local elections in 2023 the Liberal Democrats picked up 7 councillors in this section, dead heating with the Conservatives, with their main strength adjoining their stronghold in Wigston to the east. There is no Labour presence at local level, although they undoubtedly have a sizable vote at General elections.
The southern part of Blaby District is more rural, and much of it looks to Hinckley rather than Leicester. This is agricultural country on the Leicestershire plain, and it accounts for another 11,000 voters, and is as usual monolithically Conservative with high managerial occupations, but like most rural areas, and indeed the rest of the seat, not a high level of qualifications.
The Blaby seat was created in 1974 from a Harborough seat whose electorate had swelled to over 100,000, as a result of the expansion of the Leicester suburbs, exurbs, and commuter villages. However to bring it up to size it still required a substantial element of what became Harborough District. This area, based on the small town of Lutterworth on the Warwickshire and Northamptonshire borders, and the overgrown village of Broughton-Astley, with surrounding countryside, accounts for 22,000 voters. Lutterworth has a population of 10,000 and is an old market town, sitting between the M69 and the A5 where there is a huge distribution centre providing many jobs. It is demographically similar to the exurbs to the north, but has a little more council housing, and is politically competitive, with Labour and Liberal Democrat councillors as well as, or since 2023 instead of, Conservatives. Broughton-Astley to the north, between Hinckley and Blaby, is a little smaller, a post-war sprawl, and a little down market on the north side, where Liberal Democrats are competitive, but thoroughly middle-class on the south side. The two towns are surrounded by sparsely populated agricultural country, similar to that on the Blaby side, which contains the highest proportion of managerial workers and degree holders in the seat, and is safely Conservative. To compensate for the loss of Braunston the seat has gained more sparsely populated rural territory between Lutterworth and Harborough, the village of Fleckney accounting for more than half of the 6000 voters transferred.
Major changes were originally proposed for this part of the county. Harborough was to be severed from Oadby & Wigston, and to form a seat coterminous with the District Council, gaining Lutterworth from South Leicestershire. Meanwhile the Blaby/Whetstone/ Countesthorpe exurb was to be linked with Oadby & Wigston, which would have made a lot of sense as uniting a semi-urban sprawl looking to Leicester, very similar to Mid Leicestershire on the other side of the city. Unfortunately this sensible plan was abandoned following consultation in favour of much more limited change.
Overall this adds up to a safe Conservative seat, but not an overwhelmingly safe one. The substantial majorities in 2005 and 2010 were due to split opposition, with the Conservatives getting less than 50% of the vote, and Labour were only around 12% behind in 1997 and 2001. However the boundary changes will make it much safer with Braunston transferred out. The most famous MP here was Nigel Lawson, who represented the seat from its creation in 1974 until 1992. The present MP here since 2015 is Alberto Costa, a Scottish solicitor of Italian descent.
Census data: Owner-occupied 79% (14/573 in England & Wales), private rented 12% (557th), social rented 10% (532nd).
: White 94%(216th), Black 1%(375th), South Asian 2%(314th), Mixed 2%(309th), Other 1%(479th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (190th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (411th)
: Degree level 32%(301st), Minimal qualifications 25%(372nd)
: Students 5% (403rd), Over 65- 21% (210th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 92% from Sth Leicestershire, and 8% from Harborough
86% of the old seat is in the new one, with 14% going to Mid Leicestershire
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 34,795 | 61.4 | 36,791 | 64.0 | 36,452 | 66.5 |
Labour | 16,164 | 28.5 | 12,787 | 22.3 | 10,918 | 19.9 |
Liberal Democrat | 2,403 | 4.2 | 5,452 | 9.5 | 5,243 | 9.6 |
UKIP | 2,235 | 3.9 | ||||
Green | 1,092 | 1.9 | 2,439 | 4.2 | 2,173 | 4.0 |
| Majority | 18,631 | 32.9 | 24,004 | 41.8 | 25,534 | 46.6 |