Post by John Chanin on Oct 13, 2023 7:27:02 GMT
A new name, but not really a new seat. Charnwood Forest sticks up out of the flat Leicestershire countryside, heavily wooded as its name suggests, with its ancient precambrian rocks, which include fossils of some of the earliest complex life. It gave its name both to the local district council, and the constituency that is the predecessor of this one. However in the boundary changes it loses the part of Charnwood District to the east of the river Soar, and the Charnwood component of the seat is now only 40%. Nearly as much - just under 40% - comes from the northern end of Blaby District, and just over 20% comes from the north-east corner of Hinckley & Bosworth. The Boundary Commission normally makes strenuous efforts to avoid constituencies containing parts of more than two local authorities, but this seat does make considerable sense. Leicester, like Nottingham extends a long way outside its administrative boundaries. The new name better reflects its character, which consists almost entirely of suburbs, exurbs, and commuter villages looking to Leicester, as it curves in a crescent round the west side of the city. Typically for outer urban areas, owner-occupation is very high - among the top ten seats in the country. It is however less exceptional in occupational terms and like many midlands seats not with particularly high educational qualifications.
Just over a third of the seat consists of actual suburbs of Leicester, which fall outside the administrative area of the city. To the north of the city, alongside the wide flood plain of the Soar is Birstall. This has leafy suburbs with a swathe of modern estates further out, and an asian population of 25%. It is Conservative but not overwhelmingly so. To the west of the city is Glenfield, curiously the headquarters of Leicestershire County Council, a fairly nondescript middle-class suburb with an asian population of 10%. Here there is a Liberal Democrat presence challenging the Conservatives. And to the south of the city are Braunstone and Thorpe Astley, added to the seat from South Leicestershire. The former is a classic inter war suburb with its semis, and a 20% asian population. Despite the owner-occupation it is quite working class with more routine workers than managerial, and provides the only significant reservoir of Labour votes in the seat. Thorpe Astley, walled off by the Leicester ring road, is more modern, the south part being quite new, with a smaller asian population of 12%, and is politically marginal. Another sixth is also decidedly urban. Leicester Forest East sits astride the M1 and is more or less continuous with the Leicester suburbs of Braunstone and Thorpe Astley, and has a similar asian population, although it is middle-class and Conservative. Mountsorrel, sitting alongside the river Soar by the eastern foothills of the Forest, and halfway to Loughborough, has a population of just under 10,000, and is an overgrown commuter village. It is a little down market of the seat average, and there are a significant minority of Labour votes to be found here
A third consists of commuter villages and their hinterland, to the west of the city and outside the ring road. Kirby Muxloe is a pleasant village with a ruined Tudor castle, and like Glenfield and Leicester Forest East is part of Blaby District. Groby on the southern edge of the Forest, and Ratby by the M1 are more modern, and part of Hinckley & Bosworth District. Anstey and Rothley are conventional commuter villages, with modern development around an older core, and part of Charnwood District. Like most commuter villages they are very middle-class with 80% owner-occupation, but being in the orbit of Leicester they do have more ethnic minority residents than most commuter villages elsewhere, albeit much less than in the suburbs. However as usual they are mostly Conservative, with Liberal Democrat strength in Groby.
The remainder of the seat is largely rural. There are few voters in the pretty villages of the Forest. Rather more come from the area newly added to the seat to reduce the size of Hinckley & Bosworth. The large village of Markfield, halfway to Coalville, and at the western foot of the Forest, also has some of the characteristics of a commuter village, but an industrial history, not of coal mining, but of quarrying of a hard rock called diorite, a microcrystalline form of granite. Labour actually have a councillor here in a split ward, which also contains the small village of Stanton and surrounding countryside. Further out are the small villages of Bagworth on the old Leicestershire coalfield, and Thornton on a ridge overlooking the decommissioned Thornton Reservoir, now a park.
At parliamentary level Charnwood was a very safe Conservative seat ever since its creation in 1997 as an extra seat for Leicestershire, carving bits off all 4 of the surrounding seats. The much altered new seat is likely to be a little less so, with the strengthening of the suburban and asian element by the addition of Braunstone. But the commuter villages should keep it safely in the Conservative column. The MP for Charnwood since 2015 is Edward Argar, a junior minister and former SPAD and management consultant, originally from Kent, and with no connection with the area prior to selection. He has chosen to stand for the new Melton & Syston seat, which takes a third of his old constituency, and will be even safer. Mid Leicestershire will therefore provide a home for a new MP.
Census data: Owner-occupied 80% (9/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (529th), social rented 7% (567th).
: White 82%(390th), Black 2%(269th), South Asian 11%(90th), Mixed 3%(238th), Other 3%(268th)
: Managerial & professional 41% (218th), Routine & Semi-routine 25% (353rd)
: Degree level 33%(264th), Minimal qualifications 27%(319th)
: Students 5% (336th), Over 65- 21% (206th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 71% from Charnwood, 15% from South Leicestershire, and 14% from Bosworth
67% of the old Charnwood seat is in this one, with 33% going to Melton & Syston
Just over a third of the seat consists of actual suburbs of Leicester, which fall outside the administrative area of the city. To the north of the city, alongside the wide flood plain of the Soar is Birstall. This has leafy suburbs with a swathe of modern estates further out, and an asian population of 25%. It is Conservative but not overwhelmingly so. To the west of the city is Glenfield, curiously the headquarters of Leicestershire County Council, a fairly nondescript middle-class suburb with an asian population of 10%. Here there is a Liberal Democrat presence challenging the Conservatives. And to the south of the city are Braunstone and Thorpe Astley, added to the seat from South Leicestershire. The former is a classic inter war suburb with its semis, and a 20% asian population. Despite the owner-occupation it is quite working class with more routine workers than managerial, and provides the only significant reservoir of Labour votes in the seat. Thorpe Astley, walled off by the Leicester ring road, is more modern, the south part being quite new, with a smaller asian population of 12%, and is politically marginal. Another sixth is also decidedly urban. Leicester Forest East sits astride the M1 and is more or less continuous with the Leicester suburbs of Braunstone and Thorpe Astley, and has a similar asian population, although it is middle-class and Conservative. Mountsorrel, sitting alongside the river Soar by the eastern foothills of the Forest, and halfway to Loughborough, has a population of just under 10,000, and is an overgrown commuter village. It is a little down market of the seat average, and there are a significant minority of Labour votes to be found here
A third consists of commuter villages and their hinterland, to the west of the city and outside the ring road. Kirby Muxloe is a pleasant village with a ruined Tudor castle, and like Glenfield and Leicester Forest East is part of Blaby District. Groby on the southern edge of the Forest, and Ratby by the M1 are more modern, and part of Hinckley & Bosworth District. Anstey and Rothley are conventional commuter villages, with modern development around an older core, and part of Charnwood District. Like most commuter villages they are very middle-class with 80% owner-occupation, but being in the orbit of Leicester they do have more ethnic minority residents than most commuter villages elsewhere, albeit much less than in the suburbs. However as usual they are mostly Conservative, with Liberal Democrat strength in Groby.
The remainder of the seat is largely rural. There are few voters in the pretty villages of the Forest. Rather more come from the area newly added to the seat to reduce the size of Hinckley & Bosworth. The large village of Markfield, halfway to Coalville, and at the western foot of the Forest, also has some of the characteristics of a commuter village, but an industrial history, not of coal mining, but of quarrying of a hard rock called diorite, a microcrystalline form of granite. Labour actually have a councillor here in a split ward, which also contains the small village of Stanton and surrounding countryside. Further out are the small villages of Bagworth on the old Leicestershire coalfield, and Thornton on a ridge overlooking the decommissioned Thornton Reservoir, now a park.
At parliamentary level Charnwood was a very safe Conservative seat ever since its creation in 1997 as an extra seat for Leicestershire, carving bits off all 4 of the surrounding seats. The much altered new seat is likely to be a little less so, with the strengthening of the suburban and asian element by the addition of Braunstone. But the commuter villages should keep it safely in the Conservative column. The MP for Charnwood since 2015 is Edward Argar, a junior minister and former SPAD and management consultant, originally from Kent, and with no connection with the area prior to selection. He has chosen to stand for the new Melton & Syston seat, which takes a third of his old constituency, and will be even safer. Mid Leicestershire will therefore provide a home for a new MP.
Census data: Owner-occupied 80% (9/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (529th), social rented 7% (567th).
: White 82%(390th), Black 2%(269th), South Asian 11%(90th), Mixed 3%(238th), Other 3%(268th)
: Managerial & professional 41% (218th), Routine & Semi-routine 25% (353rd)
: Degree level 33%(264th), Minimal qualifications 27%(319th)
: Students 5% (336th), Over 65- 21% (206th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 71% from Charnwood, 15% from South Leicestershire, and 14% from Bosworth
67% of the old Charnwood seat is in this one, with 33% going to Melton & Syston
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 33,318 | 60.4 | 35,121 | 63.4 | 34,343 | 62.2 |
Labour | 16,977 | 30.8 | 12,724 | 23.0 | 14,155 | 25.7 |
Liberal Democrat | 2,052 | 3.7 | 4,856 | 8.8 | 4,417 | 8.0 |
UKIP | 1,471 | 2.7 | ||||
Green | 1,036 | 1.9 | 2,664 | 4.8 | 2,278 | 4.1 |
Other | 322 | 0.6 | ||||
| Majority | 16,341 | 29.6 | 22,397 | 40.5 | 20,188 | 36.6 |