Post by bungle on Oct 12, 2023 17:29:44 GMT
Scarborough and Whitby
Scarborough and Whitby are both places suggestive of seaside family holidays and summer days out for several generations across the North. The sea is an important feature in this seat (it includes pretty much all of the current North Yorkshire coastline) but it doesn’t dominate; this is also a seat which includes a large helping of rural moorland. North Yorkshire specialises in vast constituencies by area; it therefore seems appropriate that since 2023 the unitary council of the same name covers a ridiculously large amount of territory for something described as ‘local’ government. Whilst the constituency looks large, the overwhelming majority of the population is largely concentrated in its eponymous two towns and suburbs.
Scarborough and Whitby was first established as a constituency in 1918 when the growing imbalance between the number of electors in the urban Scarborough constituency (6,000) compared to the surrounding county seats could no longer be ignored. In fact Scarborough had form as a bit of a rotten borough, having returned two MPs up to 1885 with pitifully few electors. In 1885 the borough of Whitby also lost its seat and Whitby gave its name to what was in effect the ‘North Riding East’ county constituency. This seat completely surrounded Scarborough in its enclave form so naturally when it came to redistribution in 1918 Scarborough was simply absorbed with only minor changes elsewhere.
Originally the proposed name of the new county division was ‘Scarborough’ but the Whitby element was added on amendment during the passage of the relevant legislation. All was fine until 1974 when there was a major disruption - Whitby was removed and paired to parts of the newly established Cleveland county. This made sense on one level as Whitby has many links to the west along the A171 to Middlesbrough and beyond (if you visit on a BH weekend the predominant accent isn’t Yorkshire). In so doing it created a marginal seat which was only just won by the Conservative candidate Leon Brittan in both 1974 elections. By 1983 it was status quo ante. Whitby was reunited with Scarborough (this time minus the Pickering area) but its previous infidelity meant it was punished by being left out from the name. In 1997 this calumny was excised when even though no boundary changes were proposed the name Scarborough and Whitby was restored. This was probably the vanguard of what by 2023 is now the mainstream for the Boundary Commission.
The 2023 review has confirmed for a third time that the constituency will remain unchanged, thus preserving the boundaries as set in 1983. In the 2018 Review a minor change was agreed to bring in the small ward of Thornton Dale from Ryedale to boost a slightly declining electorate, but this hasn’t been renewed subsequently as the electorate figures have recovered sufficiently to nearly 74,000. Scarborough town and its urban fringe areas (which includes the highly contrasting Scalby village and Eastfield estate/Seamer) has an electorate of about 45,000 which represents some 60-65% of the constituency.
Scarborough has been synonymous with seaside holidays for nearly two centuries (‘Scarbados’) and unlike many other resorts on the East Coast it has managed to maintain some degree of respectability, coherence and loyalty in its tourist offer. Both the North and South Bays with the castle in between offer many opportunities for both holidaymakers and retirees and this trend does not seem to have abated. Traditionally Scarborough could be viewed through the ‘seaside gentility’ lens of petit bourgeois boarding house owners and small shopkeepers who would naturally plump for the Conservatives. Whilst some semblance of this remains and there are some very comfortable and respectable residencies in the northern end of the town, most of the inner town itself is anything but. Castle division is one of the most deprived within North Yorkshire and there are deeply engrained issues that reflect this poverty: poor health, average wages and house prices compared to the rest of North Yorkshire. The Eastfield estate, built in waves from the 1950s, continues this theme and even parts of what were once genteel residences off the Ramshill Road are now typical seaside HMOs.
As a result, central Scarborough is the motor for the Labour vote, especially at a parliamentary level. At a local level the picture across Scarborough town has been complicated by a series of local Independents who can come from very diverse points of view. In the 2022 unitary elections Labour pressed home their advantage of coming out on top in multi-party/independent contests within Scarborough town. They won 6 out of 7 divisions but only twice getting above 50%. The Lib Dems have largely disappeared within Scarborough despite some successes in the 2000s whilst the Greens had previously managed to win two seats in the Falsgrave ward but were soundly beaten in the larger Falsgrave & Stepney division in 2022.
What drives Scarborough’s economy besides tourism? Chips play a large part in the Scarborough economy beyond the multitude of fish and chip shops on the Foreshore. McCains continue to invest and expand their chip factory between Eastfield and Cayton and Plaxton Coaches are another who continue to survive. Scarborough isn’t natural territory for businesses seeking nationwide coverage as the A64 remains a long running sore with its single carriageway for much of the journey from York. Progress is glacial despite the local MP Robert Goodwill serving three years as Minister for Transport (hasn’t he heard of porkbarrelling?). A new departure for Scarborough is the arrival of the University of Coventry has recently invested significantly into a new campus CU Scarborough which will bring some further changes to the demographics of Scarborough town.
Once outside the Scarborough environs the constituency follows the Derwent Valley to the west with its string of pleasant villages which are all reliably Conservative. To the north the landscape changes rapidly to rugged moorland. The civil parish of Fylingdales covers a vast area of moorland as well as the charming seaside village of Robin Hood’s Bay. All reliably Conservative but relatively tiny electorates. One disruption to this rural scene was the establishment in 2015 of the Woodsmith Mine just south of Whitby as part of a major extraction of potash which promises thousands of jobs and a 23 mile long tunnel.
Whitby itself is some 20 miles from Scarborough but has much in common: a coastal destination for day trippers and holiday makers; ancient buildings clinging to a promontory and relatively poor transport links. Whitby has plenty of literary connections and makes much of its Gothic heritage for those who visit. The relative remote location of Whitby means its residential population is quite varied and not prosperous as a whole. This means its politics isn’t fixed. There are some small but comfortable housing estates out west near to Sneaton Castle which continue to expand and make for Conservative leaning territory. The old West Cliff ward elected one Labour and one Conservative in 2019 while Streonshalh ward covering eastern Whitby (more working class and corporation housing but still mixed) elected two Labour councillors. In 2022 Whitby Streonshalh went Labour but with only 33% of the vote; Whitby West went Conservative with 41%. Both seats saw significant local independent challenge.
Beyond Whitby the constituency then proceeds out west into very rural and Conservative territory taking in moorland villages such as Goathland (‘Aidensfield’ from TV’s Heartbeat) Egton, Castleton and Danby. This is the territory of large shooting estates at the heart of the North York Moors National Park. One of these estates at the western end of the seat around Westerdale is now owned by Carphone Warehouse magnate and perennial Tory donor David Ross. Local elections results here have shown – unsurprisingly - a strong preference for the Conservatives throughout any national ups and downs. The Danby & Mulgrave and Esk Valley & Coast divisions were easily held by them in 2022.
As a whole it is easy to understand why the seat leans Conservative but not remorselessly so, even though they have only lost it twice. There have been demographic changes, especially in Scarborough town, where respectable seaside holiday accommodation makes easy conversion into low grade flats and HMOs. This is a seat which wasn’t even close in 1966 (Labour were in third place) yet in 1997 Labour’s Lawrie Quinn pulled off a surprise in toppling one term Conservative MP John Sykes on a swing of nearly 15%. In 2017 Labour got back to within 4,000 of the Tories and the seat certainly forms part of their pathway to power. The swing required to win is just over 10%. Current MP since 2005 Robert Goodwill, a farmer from Terrington near Malton, has completed his shift and will step down at the next general election.
The Conservatives have selected as his replacement Roberto Weeden-Sanz, an ex-Barnet and current Kensington & Chelsea councillor who works as a banker. He stood in Doncaster Central in 2019 and states that he has connections to Yorkshire but which are unspecified. His Labour opponent is Alison Hume, a television writer who has connections with Whitby and York. Alison stood as Labour candidate for North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner in May 2021.
2019 Result
Con 27,593 55.5 +7.1
Lab 17,323 34.8 -6.8
LD 3,038 6.1 +3.4
Yorks 1,770 3.6 +2.9
