Post by bungle on Oct 12, 2023 14:44:08 GMT
Burton and Uttoxeter
As a constituency, Burton has a long pedigree (or should that be Pedigree?). It was created in 1885 and the name has remained extant for nearly 140 years, surviving recent bureaucratic tidying-up impulses to re-name the constituency after its local authority district of East Staffordshire. However, for the 2023 review there was a campaign led by the local MP to incorporate the name of its second town Uttoxeter into the title. Burton survived as a single name in both the initial and revised proposals but the Commission finally gave way in the final proposals. As noted elsewhere, this need to add places to constituency names seems to be their current addicition. I guess they wanted to have something to talk about in the final report as - other than the name – there is no other change to this constituency.
For most people, especially thirsty psephologists, Burton is far better known and is synonymous with one product – beer. It is arguable that these days it should be two with Marmite production creating a noticeable aroma in the town. Burton’s politics in the 19th and early 20th century were dominated by the so-called ‘beerage’. Michael Bass was the first MP for Burton in 1885 and fittingly enough he soon became Lord Burton. The full name of the two big brewers were Bass, Ratcliff & Gretton and Marston, Thompson & Evershed. Bass handed over to the Liberal Sydney Evershed in 1886. In 1900 the baton was passed to the Liberal Unionist Col Robert Ratcliff. In 1918 Ratcliff handed over to Unionist John Gretton (despite the latter already having a seat in Rutland) who could then combine his chairmanship of BRG with representing the town’s interests in parliament. Just to place the cherry on this cake of cliquishness, in 1943 Gretton was raised to the peerage and his son, also John, then took over as Member of Parliament.
In 1945 the beerage were washed away on a red flood that brought the election of a Labour MP called Arthur Lyne, an official of the National Union of Boot and Shoe Operatives. His victory by 760 votes meant he did not survive the pro-Conservative swing in 1950. Burton then remained reasonably marginal in an era of two party contests (the Liberals did not contest the seat at all between 1929 and Oct 1974); even in 1959 the Tory margin of victory was only 12%. Labour fell agonisingly short in 1966 (by 277 votes) and again there was much expectation in 1974 when the Labour candidate for both elections was David Hill, later to become Alistair Campbell’s successor as Tony Blair’s Director of Communications.
So what are the basic drivers of Burton’s psephology? Historically the town itself has always formed around 45-50% of constituency electorate but over time this has changed; currently about 65% of the constituency is now within the Burton urban conurbation. The town itself is situated on the very south eastern edge of what is an L-shaped constituency. Whilst Robert Waller was correct 25 years ago to state “the constituency is substantially more working class than average” the newer voters within Burton owe little loyalty to such class-based identity and have employment that is a notch or two above their forebears. They are the type for whom both New Labour and more recently the Conservatives proved an attractive proposition.
Burton town itself still appears working class in origin, especially those communities within the wards of Anglesey (mainly ethnic minorities of Pakistani origin), Shobnall and Burton & Eton Park (largely artisan terraced housing). These are Labour’s most reliable areas in a county that has seen a notable rightwards shift in the last two decades; In 2021 when Labour’s national and local performance was poor, it was the Burton Town and Burton Trent divisions which gave Labour 2 of its paltry 4 seats on the County Council.
Across the Trent in Stapenhill there are large estates of inter-war and post-war council housing which are usually Labour, but less so this past decade. Winshill is a much more mixed housing type with elements of all Burton’s main types – terraced, mid war and post war council housing, 1970s owner occupiers and mixed new build. What had been a Labour leaning area returned a split ticket of Labour and Conservatives in every district election from 2007 until finally Labour pulled comfortably ahead in the more propitious climate of 2023.
Where most change has been felt to the Burton conurbation in the past 40 years is in the area immediately beyond those inner wards. Burton’s location as a well-connected location (A38/A50 to M1/M6) has seen vast distribution parks emerge alongside skilled engineering and service businesses. With a degree of stable prosperity and employment compared to similar areas in other locations, what were once small villages have now seen significant development to provide the type of private, family-sized housing estates that naturally cultivate Conservative voters – Stretton, Branston and, most recently, an entirely new suburb in the Brizlincote Valley. In the 2023 local elections the fact Labour managed to gain 1 seat in Stretton and 2 in Branston (both 3 seat wards) is a good indication of how well they did overall. Those who won may not have expected to do so!
Heading north and west away from the Burton urban area we reach the commuter villages of Tutbury and Rolleston which have a natural Tory lean. Beyond them are a collection of rural villages with vast swathes of land owned by HM the King in his guise as Duke of Lancaster. In this area west of Burton the FA have recently opened a large football centre "St Georges Park" at Rangemore, which is on the site of one of the Bass family country estates. The appropriately named Crown ward which covers this area is consistently solid Conservative territory.
The constituency eventually reaches Uttoxeter – a small town whose main economic output is biscuits and the location of a middling racecourse which is home to the Midlands National steeplechase. The racecourse itself was owned for many years by the ‘godfather’ of Burton Conservatives, local self-made property magnate Sir Stanley Clarke. Uttoxeter urban area is marginal territory. Historically Labour have been most competitive in its Heath ward, which contains the more working class of the town. They struggled here in the 2010s but in 2023 won all 3 seats by around 15-20% in a straight fight. The Town ward is more reliably Conservative but even here Labour snatched a seat in 2023 topping the poll in the process.
Continuing our journey north and west we encounter more rural villages adjacent to the A50 and the small town of Rocester, home to the JCB factory. Its owners the Bamford family are staunch Tory supporters, so it has been a venue for many hi-viz cosplay ministerial visits, including most memorably in 2019 when Boris Johnson crashed through a wall with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’. The constituency finally ends up in the rural beauty of the Weaver Hills and hits its most northern point at the foot of Dovedale. Since the opening of the A50 Stoke-Derby dual carriageway this northern end of the constituency has seen stronger housing growth which, combined with the growth around Burton itself, has meant the Burton constituency has previously shed extraneous parts of East Staffordshire borough.
In 1997 the defending Conservative, Sir Ivan Lawrence, was the first to feel the impact of this. The strong Conservative areas of Yoxall and Bagots were removed to the new Lichfield CC. This helped Labour’s Janet Dean finally repeat the 1945 victory with a convincing win, although she would have won by at least 7,000 on the old boundaries. By 2005 the Labour lead in Burton was down to barely over 1,000 and it was a clear target for the Conservatives. Enter stage left the Boundary Commission who proposed the removal of further strong Tory territory around Barton-under-Needwood. Despite this further net 2,000 vote pull to Labour, in 2010 they were firmly defeated by 6,000 votes on a swing of 9%. The victorious Tory Andrew Griffiths continued to entrench the Tory position, achieving results in 2015 and 2017 that even outperformed Lawrence in 1983 & 87. Sadly for Griffiths his personal position became somewhat precarious after allegations of sexual misconduct led to a lengthy suspension from the Conservative parliamentary party. In 2019 his own future as candidate saw a tumultuous internal battle come to a head with a tied vote of all association members (117-117) in a motion of no confidence just a few days before nominations closed. He was eventually manoeuvred out and replaced by his estranged wife who went on to record an impressive 60% of the vote. She now goes by her maiden name of Kate Kniveton.
Like its neighbour South Derbyshire and other parts of Staffordshire such as Cannock Chase, the working class and labouring vote has diminished here and where it remains it has a fragile relationship with voting for the Labour Party other than in the very urban core. Also Burton is unlikely to be a place for noticeable numbers of ‘artsy’ folk, academics or public sector professionals. This means Burton and Uttoxeter will remain hard for Labour to crack except in very good years. The 2023 local election results point the way but they need a 15% swing with limited third party squeeze options – this is tough. Kate Kniveton defends again for the Conservatives; Labour have yet to pick their candidate.
2019 Result
Con 29,560 60.7 +2.7
Lab 15,064 30.9 -6.9
LD 2,681 5.5 +3.0
Green 1,433 2.9 +1.3
As a constituency, Burton has a long pedigree (or should that be Pedigree?). It was created in 1885 and the name has remained extant for nearly 140 years, surviving recent bureaucratic tidying-up impulses to re-name the constituency after its local authority district of East Staffordshire. However, for the 2023 review there was a campaign led by the local MP to incorporate the name of its second town Uttoxeter into the title. Burton survived as a single name in both the initial and revised proposals but the Commission finally gave way in the final proposals. As noted elsewhere, this need to add places to constituency names seems to be their current addicition. I guess they wanted to have something to talk about in the final report as - other than the name – there is no other change to this constituency.
For most people, especially thirsty psephologists, Burton is far better known and is synonymous with one product – beer. It is arguable that these days it should be two with Marmite production creating a noticeable aroma in the town. Burton’s politics in the 19th and early 20th century were dominated by the so-called ‘beerage’. Michael Bass was the first MP for Burton in 1885 and fittingly enough he soon became Lord Burton. The full name of the two big brewers were Bass, Ratcliff & Gretton and Marston, Thompson & Evershed. Bass handed over to the Liberal Sydney Evershed in 1886. In 1900 the baton was passed to the Liberal Unionist Col Robert Ratcliff. In 1918 Ratcliff handed over to Unionist John Gretton (despite the latter already having a seat in Rutland) who could then combine his chairmanship of BRG with representing the town’s interests in parliament. Just to place the cherry on this cake of cliquishness, in 1943 Gretton was raised to the peerage and his son, also John, then took over as Member of Parliament.
In 1945 the beerage were washed away on a red flood that brought the election of a Labour MP called Arthur Lyne, an official of the National Union of Boot and Shoe Operatives. His victory by 760 votes meant he did not survive the pro-Conservative swing in 1950. Burton then remained reasonably marginal in an era of two party contests (the Liberals did not contest the seat at all between 1929 and Oct 1974); even in 1959 the Tory margin of victory was only 12%. Labour fell agonisingly short in 1966 (by 277 votes) and again there was much expectation in 1974 when the Labour candidate for both elections was David Hill, later to become Alistair Campbell’s successor as Tony Blair’s Director of Communications.
So what are the basic drivers of Burton’s psephology? Historically the town itself has always formed around 45-50% of constituency electorate but over time this has changed; currently about 65% of the constituency is now within the Burton urban conurbation. The town itself is situated on the very south eastern edge of what is an L-shaped constituency. Whilst Robert Waller was correct 25 years ago to state “the constituency is substantially more working class than average” the newer voters within Burton owe little loyalty to such class-based identity and have employment that is a notch or two above their forebears. They are the type for whom both New Labour and more recently the Conservatives proved an attractive proposition.
Burton town itself still appears working class in origin, especially those communities within the wards of Anglesey (mainly ethnic minorities of Pakistani origin), Shobnall and Burton & Eton Park (largely artisan terraced housing). These are Labour’s most reliable areas in a county that has seen a notable rightwards shift in the last two decades; In 2021 when Labour’s national and local performance was poor, it was the Burton Town and Burton Trent divisions which gave Labour 2 of its paltry 4 seats on the County Council.
Across the Trent in Stapenhill there are large estates of inter-war and post-war council housing which are usually Labour, but less so this past decade. Winshill is a much more mixed housing type with elements of all Burton’s main types – terraced, mid war and post war council housing, 1970s owner occupiers and mixed new build. What had been a Labour leaning area returned a split ticket of Labour and Conservatives in every district election from 2007 until finally Labour pulled comfortably ahead in the more propitious climate of 2023.
Where most change has been felt to the Burton conurbation in the past 40 years is in the area immediately beyond those inner wards. Burton’s location as a well-connected location (A38/A50 to M1/M6) has seen vast distribution parks emerge alongside skilled engineering and service businesses. With a degree of stable prosperity and employment compared to similar areas in other locations, what were once small villages have now seen significant development to provide the type of private, family-sized housing estates that naturally cultivate Conservative voters – Stretton, Branston and, most recently, an entirely new suburb in the Brizlincote Valley. In the 2023 local elections the fact Labour managed to gain 1 seat in Stretton and 2 in Branston (both 3 seat wards) is a good indication of how well they did overall. Those who won may not have expected to do so!
Heading north and west away from the Burton urban area we reach the commuter villages of Tutbury and Rolleston which have a natural Tory lean. Beyond them are a collection of rural villages with vast swathes of land owned by HM the King in his guise as Duke of Lancaster. In this area west of Burton the FA have recently opened a large football centre "St Georges Park" at Rangemore, which is on the site of one of the Bass family country estates. The appropriately named Crown ward which covers this area is consistently solid Conservative territory.
The constituency eventually reaches Uttoxeter – a small town whose main economic output is biscuits and the location of a middling racecourse which is home to the Midlands National steeplechase. The racecourse itself was owned for many years by the ‘godfather’ of Burton Conservatives, local self-made property magnate Sir Stanley Clarke. Uttoxeter urban area is marginal territory. Historically Labour have been most competitive in its Heath ward, which contains the more working class of the town. They struggled here in the 2010s but in 2023 won all 3 seats by around 15-20% in a straight fight. The Town ward is more reliably Conservative but even here Labour snatched a seat in 2023 topping the poll in the process.
Continuing our journey north and west we encounter more rural villages adjacent to the A50 and the small town of Rocester, home to the JCB factory. Its owners the Bamford family are staunch Tory supporters, so it has been a venue for many hi-viz cosplay ministerial visits, including most memorably in 2019 when Boris Johnson crashed through a wall with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’. The constituency finally ends up in the rural beauty of the Weaver Hills and hits its most northern point at the foot of Dovedale. Since the opening of the A50 Stoke-Derby dual carriageway this northern end of the constituency has seen stronger housing growth which, combined with the growth around Burton itself, has meant the Burton constituency has previously shed extraneous parts of East Staffordshire borough.
In 1997 the defending Conservative, Sir Ivan Lawrence, was the first to feel the impact of this. The strong Conservative areas of Yoxall and Bagots were removed to the new Lichfield CC. This helped Labour’s Janet Dean finally repeat the 1945 victory with a convincing win, although she would have won by at least 7,000 on the old boundaries. By 2005 the Labour lead in Burton was down to barely over 1,000 and it was a clear target for the Conservatives. Enter stage left the Boundary Commission who proposed the removal of further strong Tory territory around Barton-under-Needwood. Despite this further net 2,000 vote pull to Labour, in 2010 they were firmly defeated by 6,000 votes on a swing of 9%. The victorious Tory Andrew Griffiths continued to entrench the Tory position, achieving results in 2015 and 2017 that even outperformed Lawrence in 1983 & 87. Sadly for Griffiths his personal position became somewhat precarious after allegations of sexual misconduct led to a lengthy suspension from the Conservative parliamentary party. In 2019 his own future as candidate saw a tumultuous internal battle come to a head with a tied vote of all association members (117-117) in a motion of no confidence just a few days before nominations closed. He was eventually manoeuvred out and replaced by his estranged wife who went on to record an impressive 60% of the vote. She now goes by her maiden name of Kate Kniveton.
Like its neighbour South Derbyshire and other parts of Staffordshire such as Cannock Chase, the working class and labouring vote has diminished here and where it remains it has a fragile relationship with voting for the Labour Party other than in the very urban core. Also Burton is unlikely to be a place for noticeable numbers of ‘artsy’ folk, academics or public sector professionals. This means Burton and Uttoxeter will remain hard for Labour to crack except in very good years. The 2023 local election results point the way but they need a 15% swing with limited third party squeeze options – this is tough. Kate Kniveton defends again for the Conservatives; Labour have yet to pick their candidate.
2019 Result
Con 29,560 60.7 +2.7
Lab 15,064 30.9 -6.9
LD 2,681 5.5 +3.0
Green 1,433 2.9 +1.3
