Post by matureleft on Oct 12, 2023 14:23:10 GMT
One of the oldest constituencies, having been established in 1295. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, with one lapse in 1923 when a Liberal was returned, it has provided a safe berth for a succession of Conservative MPs of varying stature. Among those who have represented the seat are Chris Chataway, an athlete who ran with Roger Bannister to break the 4 minute mile and was a Heath minister, Anthony Nelson, a banker and Thatcher minister (but not a true believer, so much so that he joined Labour in 2001), and more recently Andrew Tyrie, cerebral and politely rebellious with an awkward streak (apparently nicknamed Andrew Tiresome by some Tories, but his cleverness may have been a problem...), He had an interest in issues that seldom troubled most Conservatives, extraordinary rendition being the most obvious. Slightly surprisingly, bearing in mind its utterly safe history, the seat has seemingly not had a Conservative drafted in with parliamentary career development in mind (although Chataway probably looked like that when selected for the 1969 by-election). The MP since 2017 has been Gillian Keegan, originally from Huyton but prior to being elected reasonably locally-rooted as a Chichester District councillor. She has risen through the parliamentary ranks, becoming Education Secretary in Rishi Sunak’s cabinet.
Chichester being a very small city (the electorate of the 5 city wards was just under 21000 in 2019) the seat has in modern times encompassed a much wider area. At times this stretched along the coast to Bognor Regis but from 1974 it has spread northward instead reflecting local government structures. In 1983 it comprised all the wards of Chichester District Council including the major communities of Midhurst, Petworth and Selsey, the city itself and a large rural area at the western end of West Sussex. The most notable growth community is Tangmere, the former RAF base, but Chichester is sprawling too, except to its north, where the various interests of the Duke of Richmond and his Goodwood estate (horse racing, an airfield and motor racing) act as a barrier to some extent. The population of the district grew by 9 per cent between 2011 and 2021.
The boundaries from 2010 comprised the district excluding Petworth and rural wards to its north and south. It was substantially oversized, with an electorate of over 85,000 at the 2019 election. The most obvious future change would be to exclude a further section of the northern end of the seat. However the Boundary Commission’s initial proposals instead excluded the wards immediately south of the city, leaving Chichester itself lodged in the far south-eastern corner of the eponymous constituency. Some objections to this but more importantly the consequences of other amendments in West Sussex drew further proposals. These do exclude the northern, rural end of the seat even to the extent of splitting Goodwood ward that abuts the city. To compensate 2 wards from Arun District Council, Bersted and Pagham on the edge of Bognor Regis, are added to the constituency. The effect is to produce a much smaller-in-area, less rural constituency with the little city near its centre.
Does this make much difference in electoral terms?
Well the city itself is not a Conservative stronghold and its representation has been dominated by Liberal Democrats in most local elections since the 1980s. The City (meaning Town) Council has no Conservatives at all with the 2023 elections giving all but one seat to the Liberal Democrats, with a solitary Labour councillor. The district council elections in 2019 gave the Conservatives exactly half of the seats across the district with the Liberal Democrats a strong second. The 2023 district elections were disastrous for the Conservatives with an overwhelming Liberal Democrat victory, winning 25 out of 36 seats across the whole district. The Greens retained 2 seats. The pruning of the northern end of the seat would exclude some normally strongly Conservative wards (although most of these fell in 2023).
The second-largest community, the geographically-isolated Selsey, returned Local [Selsey] Alliance candidates.
Do the 2 Arun wards offer some reassurance to the Conservatives? Bersted comfortably elected Liberal Democrat councillors in 2023 but one Conservative was also elected when the Liberal Democrats failed to nominate for all the vacancies. Bersted has some Labour history and a continuing vote. Pagham elected locally-focused Independents but has normally been Conservative.
The Chichester district narrowly voted Leave but one would suspect that the new Parliamentary seat voted narrowly Remain.
Nevertheless with the 2019 General Election delivering a Conservative vote share of just under 58 per cent (but a fall of over 2 per cent from 2017) there's a long way for any opponent to go. The Liberal Democrats retook second place then after Labour had surged to 22 per cent in 2017. The Labour vote has been historically quite resilient while the party has never been a realistic contender In the seat.
The city's cathedral dominates the landscape to the south and is at the heart of a complex of church properties. The church has influenced other aspects of the city – the fine Pallant House gallery was established through a collection of 20th Century British art assembled by a former Dean. Nowadays a strong Church presence is seldom reassuring for Conservative candidates. The Chichester Festival Theatre has a regional reputation. The Fishbourne Roman palace lies to the west of Chichester and reflects the importance of the area in those times. Around the south of the constituency from Chichester to the coast and Selsey there are landmarks reflecting the draconian but often vain attempts to control smuggling in the area in the 18th Century. Goodwood to the north of the city is base to Rolls-Royce cars (now German owned) as well as the various Goodwood businesses. The South Downs National Park stretches across the north of the seat (but much less so with the new boundaries) and the areas around Chichester harbour are an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. A former teacher training college evolved in stages gaining University status in 2005. While a relatively small university with 5,500 students the presence of a university seldom bodes well for the modern Conservative Party. The city is base to the County Council, its District Council and there's a hospital as well, so a significant public sector workforce will also influence its voting behaviour.
Like many an affluent South-East constituency Chichester has had its share of planning pressures with the council having difficulty accommodating the housing numbers required by the government and making slow progress with its local plan. That led to a period where the council was unable to resist developer applications effectively through their failure to comply. This prompted some defections to independent from the Conservative district council group and some fairly strong localist campaigns. What this amounts to in terms of votes in a General Election is hard to predict but the issue is bound to be used by opponents. Sewage disposal in the sea and watercourses, particularly with the housing growth occurring, also prompts local activism.
Other south-eastern coastal areas have drifted away from Conservatism to varying degrees – Hastings, Eastbourne, Brighton and Hove, and Worthing. Chichester remains more rural than these even after the boundary changes.
This is the kind of constituency that the Conservatives would struggle to hold in a by election in unpopular times. The strong representations from Keegan concerning the new boundaries suggest some anxiety about the smaller, less rural seat in even a general election. Local election results are seldom an accurate indicator of prospects but currently loyal Conservative wards are scarce within the new boundaries and local pressures offer vulnerabilities. The Liberal Democrats have selected a local councillor as their candidate (but not one resident within the new boundaries) and have clearly targeted the seat.
