Post by John Chanin on Oct 12, 2023 11:26:20 GMT
Almost all the Leicestershire seats were oversized, and the county has therefore gained half a seat in the boundary changes. Rutland has been removed from its connection with Melton, and linked with Stamford in Lincolnshire instead. Melton has now been linked with the eastern side of the former Charnwood seat, with wards being shuffled anti-clockwise around Leicester to bring all the other seats down below the maximum size. This in effect recreates the pre-1983 Melton seat, although the new seat is smaller, stretching not as far into Charnwood District.
Melton is the second smallest district in England, with a population of just 50,000. Half of this lives in the town of Melton Mowbray, by far the largest in the constituency, famous for its pork pies and stilton cheese. The pocket district is based on the valley of the Wreake (a tributary of the Soar), on which Melton Mowbray sits, plus the Vale of Belvoir to the north, which forms a salient into Nottinghamshire. The largest settlement here is the village of Bottesford, but the main feature is Belvoir Castle which overlooks the vale - a chateau built in the early 1800s rather than a proper castle, home to the Dukes of Rutland - a bit incongruous for a dukedom, as a barony or at best an earldom would seem more appropriate, but there’s no accounting for mediaeval aristocracy, or the fact that they rarely live where their titles suggest. The hill country to the east is very sparsely populated, with some pleasant villages, but there are more residents in the Wreake valley with the larger villages of Asfordby, and the delightfully named Frisby-on-the-Wreake. Historically there was something of a Labour vote in Melton town, which has an industrial history, a significant amount of council housing, and more routine than managerial workers. However Labour disappeared entirely from Melton Council in 2015, not even managing to raise candidates in most of the town in 2019, before a small revival in 2023 when they won the most working class Egerton ward, and surprisingly also picked up a councillor in Bottesford. There aren’t any Liberal Democrats in the district either, with a lone Green providing variety to the various Conservatives and conservative independents.
Melton District accounts for 55% of the new seat. The remaining 45% comes from Charnwood District east of the Soar. The lower Wreake valley is a continuation of the rural Melton section, and is as middle-class and Conservative, with the exception of the curious small entirely private new town of East Goscote, built on an old Ministry of Defence site, which is rather isolated and lacks facilities. The small town voted Green before its incorporation into the larger Wreake Valley ward for the 2023 election, and has clearly extended its influence as the Greens won all 3 seats in the new ward. Also here is the large commuter village of Queniborough, and the smaller villages of Barkby and Beeby, amidst flat agricultural country along the border with Harborough District. These only amount to some 3,500 middle-class voters.
At the junction of the Wreake and the Soar sits the town of Syston, which has a population of 13,000, and whose name stands as proxy for the Charnwood section of the new seat. Syston has more managerial than routine workers, but not particularly high educational qualifications, and a surprising amount of private renting. Although normally Conservative, it also voted Green at the last council elections. Syston is best seen as an exurb of Leicester, as it is connected by ribbon development to the Leicester suburb of Thurmaston to the south, and has some spill over of the asian population. Thurmaston itself is an extension of east Leicester with an asian population, predominantly Hindu, of over 30%. It has an old village centre, swallowed up by the city, with more modern estates east of the main road north, alongside a large mall. It is the most working class part of the seat with the lowest educational qualifications, but still solidly Conservative.
Lastly there is another commuter village alongside the Soar to the north, Sileby, transferred from the Loughborough seat rather than the Charnwood seat. Sileby is not as middle-class as the other commuter villages in the area, with demographics more similar to Syston, reflecting its industrial origin, before it developed into a commuter village with a marina on the river and much modern development, which has raised its population to 8,000. Like its neighbours it voted Green at the last local elections, although like them its history is as Conservative as you would expect.
This heterogeneous constituency should be a very safe Conservative seat, despite its not particularly high status, as there is little Labour activity outside Melton town, and no Liberal Democrat presence. The Green advances at local elections are unlikely to transfer to the national level. The MP for Rutland & Melton, Alicia Kearns has opted for the new Rutland & Stamford seat, and Edward Argar, MP for Charnwood, has opted for this seat in preference to Mid Leicestershire, which contains the majority of his current seat. He is a junior minister and former management consultant.
Census data: Owner-occupied 74% (80/575 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (385th), social rented 10% (514th).
: White 89%(303rd), Black 1%(418th), South Asian 7%(152nd), Mixed 2%(377th), Other 1%(406th)
: Managerial & professional 37% (320th), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (258th)
: Degree level 30%(336th), Minimal qualifications 28%(274th)
: Students 5% (420th), Over 65- 22% (159th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 55% from Rutland & Melton, 37% from Charnwood, and 9% from Loughborough
It contains 49% of Rutland & Melton, 33% of Charnwood, and 8% of Loughborough
Melton is the second smallest district in England, with a population of just 50,000. Half of this lives in the town of Melton Mowbray, by far the largest in the constituency, famous for its pork pies and stilton cheese. The pocket district is based on the valley of the Wreake (a tributary of the Soar), on which Melton Mowbray sits, plus the Vale of Belvoir to the north, which forms a salient into Nottinghamshire. The largest settlement here is the village of Bottesford, but the main feature is Belvoir Castle which overlooks the vale - a chateau built in the early 1800s rather than a proper castle, home to the Dukes of Rutland - a bit incongruous for a dukedom, as a barony or at best an earldom would seem more appropriate, but there’s no accounting for mediaeval aristocracy, or the fact that they rarely live where their titles suggest. The hill country to the east is very sparsely populated, with some pleasant villages, but there are more residents in the Wreake valley with the larger villages of Asfordby, and the delightfully named Frisby-on-the-Wreake. Historically there was something of a Labour vote in Melton town, which has an industrial history, a significant amount of council housing, and more routine than managerial workers. However Labour disappeared entirely from Melton Council in 2015, not even managing to raise candidates in most of the town in 2019, before a small revival in 2023 when they won the most working class Egerton ward, and surprisingly also picked up a councillor in Bottesford. There aren’t any Liberal Democrats in the district either, with a lone Green providing variety to the various Conservatives and conservative independents.
Melton District accounts for 55% of the new seat. The remaining 45% comes from Charnwood District east of the Soar. The lower Wreake valley is a continuation of the rural Melton section, and is as middle-class and Conservative, with the exception of the curious small entirely private new town of East Goscote, built on an old Ministry of Defence site, which is rather isolated and lacks facilities. The small town voted Green before its incorporation into the larger Wreake Valley ward for the 2023 election, and has clearly extended its influence as the Greens won all 3 seats in the new ward. Also here is the large commuter village of Queniborough, and the smaller villages of Barkby and Beeby, amidst flat agricultural country along the border with Harborough District. These only amount to some 3,500 middle-class voters.
At the junction of the Wreake and the Soar sits the town of Syston, which has a population of 13,000, and whose name stands as proxy for the Charnwood section of the new seat. Syston has more managerial than routine workers, but not particularly high educational qualifications, and a surprising amount of private renting. Although normally Conservative, it also voted Green at the last council elections. Syston is best seen as an exurb of Leicester, as it is connected by ribbon development to the Leicester suburb of Thurmaston to the south, and has some spill over of the asian population. Thurmaston itself is an extension of east Leicester with an asian population, predominantly Hindu, of over 30%. It has an old village centre, swallowed up by the city, with more modern estates east of the main road north, alongside a large mall. It is the most working class part of the seat with the lowest educational qualifications, but still solidly Conservative.
Lastly there is another commuter village alongside the Soar to the north, Sileby, transferred from the Loughborough seat rather than the Charnwood seat. Sileby is not as middle-class as the other commuter villages in the area, with demographics more similar to Syston, reflecting its industrial origin, before it developed into a commuter village with a marina on the river and much modern development, which has raised its population to 8,000. Like its neighbours it voted Green at the last local elections, although like them its history is as Conservative as you would expect.
This heterogeneous constituency should be a very safe Conservative seat, despite its not particularly high status, as there is little Labour activity outside Melton town, and no Liberal Democrat presence. The Green advances at local elections are unlikely to transfer to the national level. The MP for Rutland & Melton, Alicia Kearns has opted for the new Rutland & Stamford seat, and Edward Argar, MP for Charnwood, has opted for this seat in preference to Mid Leicestershire, which contains the majority of his current seat. He is a junior minister and former management consultant.
Census data: Owner-occupied 74% (80/575 in England & Wales), private rented 16% (385th), social rented 10% (514th).
: White 89%(303rd), Black 1%(418th), South Asian 7%(152nd), Mixed 2%(377th), Other 1%(406th)
: Managerial & professional 37% (320th), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (258th)
: Degree level 30%(336th), Minimal qualifications 28%(274th)
: Students 5% (420th), Over 65- 22% (159th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 55% from Rutland & Melton, 37% from Charnwood, and 9% from Loughborough
It contains 49% of Rutland & Melton, 33% of Charnwood, and 8% of Loughborough
Notional | % | |
Conservative | 30,232 | 63.3 |
Labour | 11,228 | 23.5 |
Liberal Democrat | 3,685 | 7.7 |
Green | 2,647 | 5.5 |
| Majority | 19,004 | 39.8 |
