Post by Robert Waller on Oct 12, 2023 10:03:38 GMT
In the most recent review there are significant boundary changes in Cheshire. Two seat names disappear entirely: Halton and Weaver Vale. Substantial parts of both of these are included in the new Runcorn & Helsby constituency.
Two thirds of Halton, the parts north of the river Mersey, historically of course in Lancashire, form the core of another new seat, Widnes & Halewood. The rest of Halton, essentially five of the wards in the town of Runcorn at the other end of the Silver Jubilee Bridge, will supply nearly 20,000 of the electors of Runcorn & Helsby. These would be joined by Runcorn’s eastern wards, and also Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor, all currently in Weaver Vale. The united Runcorn has a population of well over 60,000 and will dominate this new constituency., which also extends west into Cheshire West & Chester unitary through Frodsham and Helsby (also taken from Weaver Vale). All in all just over half of Weaver Vale will be included, most of the rest going into another newly named division, Mid Cheshire. Finally it almost reaches Ellesmere Port, taking in Elton and the vast Stanlow oil refinery, this last section previously being located in Ellesmere Port & Neston.
For some reason the new seat is named Runcorn and Helsby, despite Frodsham being a larger community than the latter small town: 9,000 compared with 5,000 … one is somewhat surprised that this nomenclature survived the inquiry process to be confirmed in the final report of June 2023.
On the break-up of the Halton constituency, Widnes & Halewood will certainly be overwhelmingly Labour. However any hopes among Conservatives that they may have a good chance in a Runcorn seat are likely to be disappointed. Yes, three of the four Cheshire West wards included were strongly Conservative in 2019 – Frodsham, Gowy Rural and Sandstone, the fourth, Helsby, being won easily by the Greens. Then in May 2023 Labour gained Frodsham, while the other three wards remained under the same party control as 2019. But the main problem for the Tories is that the eastern Runcorn wards now taken from Weaver Vale are as massively Labour as the rest of the town, for example Halton Lea (76% share in a four way contest in May 2023) and Norton South / Preston Brook (69%, ditto). With this section, Runcorn town makes up close to 70% of the proposed ‘Runcorn and Helsby’.
Yes, the old Runcorn was Conservative throughout the period 1950-83 (its MPs were two ministers: Dennis Vosper, then Mark Carlisle who rose to become Thatcher’s first Education Secretary, before she pruned the wet elements in the Cabinet). However, that seat included the Conservative Lymm, Grappenhall and Stockton Heath now in Warrington South, as well as Frodsham and Helsby; and Runcorn was neither as large nor as strongly Labour – and strongly ‘Merseyside’ - as it has become. Runcorn was part of the second wave of New Towns: not the initial Reith Committee-inspired creations of the 1940s like Stevenage and Basildon, but designated in 1964, with the intention of expanding the population from 28.500 to 70,000 by the 1980s (nearly achieved) and 100,000 later (not achieved). One consequence is that the New Town housing is decidedly 1970s style, not the substantial semis of the earlier planned communities but a mixture of terraces, low-cost construction and hypermodern ideas that led Architect magazine to publish a feature on ‘What Went Wrong at Runcorn”.
www.architectmagazine.com/design/urbanism-planning/what-went-wrong-at-runcorn_o
The demographics of the ‘new town’ section of Runcorn are strikingly down-market. As far as housing tenure goes, in the 2021 census 58% in Castlefield MSOA were still social rented, 44% in Grange and 43% in Halton Lea. These areas all had nearly 40% in routine and semi-routine occupations, and between 25% and 30% with no educational qualifications. Runcorn is visually striking – not only for its range of odd housing styles but for its industry, with the dramatic view of the Ineos (ex ICI) works from the Weston Point expressway as it sweeps round the ‘crook of the elbow’ of the Mersey as it turns west, then south. Runcorn is a product of the canal age as well as a river port, including from 1894 the Manchester Ship Canal.
This is all a stark contrast to the minority ‘Helsby’ part of the seat, where 12 to 14% have no qualifications. &8% in Frodsham MSOA own their own housing, and 84% in Helsby do. Over 43% of workers in Frodsham are in professional and managerial occupations, and even more in neighbourhoods like Netherton and Overton. The figure is even higher, over 45% in Helsby – over 55% around Swireford Road. This is an attractive semi-rural part of Cheshire. Both towns are known for their bulky sandstone hills soaring above the plain, to an altitude of over 500 feet – quite dramatic when they are set so near to the coast and hence sea level. By contrast with Runcorn’s industrial and New Town background, Frodsham was an important medieval port in the demesne of the Earls of Chester, and its history goes even further back; there is an Iron Age fort on Frodsham Hill. The same is true of Helsby, then as the name implies (-by) it was a Viking settlement in the 19th century. In much more recent developments, both towns are well situated as commuting bases as the M56 passes less than a mile from their centres.
So, this is very much a constituency of two parts, with one (Runcorn) much the larger and therefore electorally dominant. But of all the differences between ‘Runcorn’ and ‘Helsby’ the most important is that of accent. Runcorn, especially with its history of ‘overspill’, is definitely part of Merseyside. In other parts of the country, indeed in other parts of not only of the North but of the North West, its demographic characteristics might have offered succour to the Conservatives at the last general election, which might or might not still have some effect next time too. However the sub-regional effect means that the new Runcorn-based constituency had a December 2019 ‘notional’ majority of around 6,000 – and that this is almost certain to increase considerably in 2024.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 20.8% 212/575
Owner occupied 65.0% 312/575
Private rented 13.3% 514/575
Social rented 21.7% 117/575
White 96.5% 104/575
Black 0.4% 461/575
Asian 1.1% 508/575
Managerial & professional 31.2% 322/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 178/575
Degree level 28.8% 377/575
No qualifications 19.1% 218/575
Students 5.2% 346/575
General Election 2019: Weaver Vale
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mike Amesbury 22,772 44.9 −6.6
Conservative Adam Wordsworth 22,210 43.8 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Daniela Parker 3,300 6.5 +3.3
Brexit Party Nicholas Goulding 1,380 2.7 New
Green Paul Bowers 1,051 2.1 +0.5
Lab Majority 562 1.1 −6.7
2019 electorate 70,551
Turnout 50,713 71.9 −1.4
Labour hold
Swing 3.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Runcorn & Helsby consists of
52.6% of Weaver Vale
33.7% of Halton
7.6% of Ellesmere Port & Neston
3.3% of Eddisbury
1.7% of City of Chester
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_262_Runcorn%20and%20Helsby_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Two thirds of Halton, the parts north of the river Mersey, historically of course in Lancashire, form the core of another new seat, Widnes & Halewood. The rest of Halton, essentially five of the wards in the town of Runcorn at the other end of the Silver Jubilee Bridge, will supply nearly 20,000 of the electors of Runcorn & Helsby. These would be joined by Runcorn’s eastern wards, and also Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor, all currently in Weaver Vale. The united Runcorn has a population of well over 60,000 and will dominate this new constituency., which also extends west into Cheshire West & Chester unitary through Frodsham and Helsby (also taken from Weaver Vale). All in all just over half of Weaver Vale will be included, most of the rest going into another newly named division, Mid Cheshire. Finally it almost reaches Ellesmere Port, taking in Elton and the vast Stanlow oil refinery, this last section previously being located in Ellesmere Port & Neston.
For some reason the new seat is named Runcorn and Helsby, despite Frodsham being a larger community than the latter small town: 9,000 compared with 5,000 … one is somewhat surprised that this nomenclature survived the inquiry process to be confirmed in the final report of June 2023.
On the break-up of the Halton constituency, Widnes & Halewood will certainly be overwhelmingly Labour. However any hopes among Conservatives that they may have a good chance in a Runcorn seat are likely to be disappointed. Yes, three of the four Cheshire West wards included were strongly Conservative in 2019 – Frodsham, Gowy Rural and Sandstone, the fourth, Helsby, being won easily by the Greens. Then in May 2023 Labour gained Frodsham, while the other three wards remained under the same party control as 2019. But the main problem for the Tories is that the eastern Runcorn wards now taken from Weaver Vale are as massively Labour as the rest of the town, for example Halton Lea (76% share in a four way contest in May 2023) and Norton South / Preston Brook (69%, ditto). With this section, Runcorn town makes up close to 70% of the proposed ‘Runcorn and Helsby’.
Yes, the old Runcorn was Conservative throughout the period 1950-83 (its MPs were two ministers: Dennis Vosper, then Mark Carlisle who rose to become Thatcher’s first Education Secretary, before she pruned the wet elements in the Cabinet). However, that seat included the Conservative Lymm, Grappenhall and Stockton Heath now in Warrington South, as well as Frodsham and Helsby; and Runcorn was neither as large nor as strongly Labour – and strongly ‘Merseyside’ - as it has become. Runcorn was part of the second wave of New Towns: not the initial Reith Committee-inspired creations of the 1940s like Stevenage and Basildon, but designated in 1964, with the intention of expanding the population from 28.500 to 70,000 by the 1980s (nearly achieved) and 100,000 later (not achieved). One consequence is that the New Town housing is decidedly 1970s style, not the substantial semis of the earlier planned communities but a mixture of terraces, low-cost construction and hypermodern ideas that led Architect magazine to publish a feature on ‘What Went Wrong at Runcorn”.
www.architectmagazine.com/design/urbanism-planning/what-went-wrong-at-runcorn_o
The demographics of the ‘new town’ section of Runcorn are strikingly down-market. As far as housing tenure goes, in the 2021 census 58% in Castlefield MSOA were still social rented, 44% in Grange and 43% in Halton Lea. These areas all had nearly 40% in routine and semi-routine occupations, and between 25% and 30% with no educational qualifications. Runcorn is visually striking – not only for its range of odd housing styles but for its industry, with the dramatic view of the Ineos (ex ICI) works from the Weston Point expressway as it sweeps round the ‘crook of the elbow’ of the Mersey as it turns west, then south. Runcorn is a product of the canal age as well as a river port, including from 1894 the Manchester Ship Canal.
This is all a stark contrast to the minority ‘Helsby’ part of the seat, where 12 to 14% have no qualifications. &8% in Frodsham MSOA own their own housing, and 84% in Helsby do. Over 43% of workers in Frodsham are in professional and managerial occupations, and even more in neighbourhoods like Netherton and Overton. The figure is even higher, over 45% in Helsby – over 55% around Swireford Road. This is an attractive semi-rural part of Cheshire. Both towns are known for their bulky sandstone hills soaring above the plain, to an altitude of over 500 feet – quite dramatic when they are set so near to the coast and hence sea level. By contrast with Runcorn’s industrial and New Town background, Frodsham was an important medieval port in the demesne of the Earls of Chester, and its history goes even further back; there is an Iron Age fort on Frodsham Hill. The same is true of Helsby, then as the name implies (-by) it was a Viking settlement in the 19th century. In much more recent developments, both towns are well situated as commuting bases as the M56 passes less than a mile from their centres.
So, this is very much a constituency of two parts, with one (Runcorn) much the larger and therefore electorally dominant. But of all the differences between ‘Runcorn’ and ‘Helsby’ the most important is that of accent. Runcorn, especially with its history of ‘overspill’, is definitely part of Merseyside. In other parts of the country, indeed in other parts of not only of the North but of the North West, its demographic characteristics might have offered succour to the Conservatives at the last general election, which might or might not still have some effect next time too. However the sub-regional effect means that the new Runcorn-based constituency had a December 2019 ‘notional’ majority of around 6,000 – and that this is almost certain to increase considerably in 2024.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 20.8% 212/575
Owner occupied 65.0% 312/575
Private rented 13.3% 514/575
Social rented 21.7% 117/575
White 96.5% 104/575
Black 0.4% 461/575
Asian 1.1% 508/575
Managerial & professional 31.2% 322/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 178/575
Degree level 28.8% 377/575
No qualifications 19.1% 218/575
Students 5.2% 346/575
General Election 2019: Weaver Vale
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mike Amesbury 22,772 44.9 −6.6
Conservative Adam Wordsworth 22,210 43.8 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Daniela Parker 3,300 6.5 +3.3
Brexit Party Nicholas Goulding 1,380 2.7 New
Green Paul Bowers 1,051 2.1 +0.5
Lab Majority 562 1.1 −6.7
2019 electorate 70,551
Turnout 50,713 71.9 −1.4
Labour hold
Swing 3.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Runcorn & Helsby consists of
52.6% of Weaver Vale
33.7% of Halton
7.6% of Ellesmere Port & Neston
3.3% of Eddisbury
1.7% of City of Chester
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_262_Runcorn%20and%20Helsby_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 23617 | 48.8% |
| Con | 17838 | 36.8% |
| LD | 3247 | 6.7% |
| Brexit | 2302 | 4.8% |
| Green | 1414 | 2.9% |
| | ||
| Lab Majority | 5779 | 11.9% |