Post by John Chanin on Oct 11, 2023 19:10:47 GMT
Hinckley is surprisingly anonymous for a town of 50,000 people. The Boundary Commission have contributed to this anonymity by previously excluding it from the constituency name, despite the fact that the seat is based on the Hinckley & Bosworth District Council. This has been corrected in the latest boundary review. The town sits just to the east of Watling Street (the modern A5) - the great Roman road that separates the East Midlands from the West Midlands, and its western suburbs virtually run into the eastern suburbs of Nuneaton. The town is generally middle-class, but not of particularly high status, with a relatively low proportion of people with degrees, and is almost entirely white. It is also very uniform, with the only variety coming in the section south of the main Birmingham-Leicester railway line known as Burbage, where south Burbage is of slightly higher status, with the limited council housing concentrated on the north side of Burbage. There is a great deal of post-war and modern housing in extensive terraces throughout, with an older and rather undistinguished centre. Historically Hinckley was a centre of the hosiery trade, of which there is still some left, alongside other industry. But it is not an industrial town, and its prosperity comes from its location in the centre of the country close to motorways, which makes it a major distribution centre. Hinckley accounts for just over half of the constituency, and at local level is a Liberal Democrat stronghold, with them holding all 6 district wards.
The other urban area in the seat is Barwell/Earl Shilton (a continuous urban area with two names) to the north-east of Hinckley on the way to Leicester, which has a population of just under 20,000, and accounts for about a fifth of the seat. Earl Shilton was the main historical settlement in west Leicestershire, but today the town is a little down-market of Hinckley, with higher routine and lower managerial occupations, only a fifth of the population with degrees, and a little more council housing. Unlike Hinckley it is however Conservative at local level, with the Liberal Democrats competitive in the eastern Earl Shilton ward, and Labour having their only significant vote in the constituency in the western Barwell ward.
Most of the rest of the seat is Bosworth, accounting for just under a quarter of the voters but most of the land. This is flat agricultural land with the Ashby canal winding its way north from Coventry through the west side of the seat, full of sleepy villages, including the splendidly named Sheepy Magna. The two largest villages are Desford and Newbold Verdon in the east, with tiny and rather twee Market Bosworth in the centre, connected by a toy train to the famous battlefield site, alongside the Ashby canal, where there is a visitor centre. Managerial occupations are high throughout, and it is competitive between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives at local level. The Barlestone ward in the north is noticeably down-market, adjoining the now defunct Leicestershire coalfield to the north. There was actually a deep pit at Desford, although there is no sign of it now in a pleasant rural village.
The old Bosworth seat was oversized. In the boundary changes two wards in the north-east of the District have been removed to the much altered and renamed Mid Leicestershire seat. These are Ratby - a commuter village for Leicester alongside the M1, and Markfield, halfway between Leicester and Coalville, with a mining history and some Labour votes. These 10,000 voters have been replaced by 4000 voters from the rural south-west of North West Leicestershire District around the villages of Appleby and Donisthorpe. The latter is an old mining village, and consequently a little down market, but both normally vote Conservative .
Although the Liberal Democrats control the local council, being dominant in Hinckley, and competitive in much of the rural territory, at parliamentary level this is a very safe Conservative seat, with among their top 30 majorities in 2019. However the Liberal Democrats have carried across more of their local support than in many other areas, coming fairly close to winning the seat in 2010, and retaining much more of their support than usual in the post-coalition election of 2015 when they remained second. However their vote has continued to fall, and Labour is now showing in second place, although it is far from clear where their vote comes from. The boundary changes probably slightly strengthen the Conservatives. The new MP here, elected in 2019, is Luke Evans, a former GP.
Census data: Owner-occupied 74% (69/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (438th), social rented 11% (496th).
: White 95%(187th), Black 1%(417th), South Asian 2%(341st), Mixed 2%(380th), Other 1%(436th)
: Managerial & professional 38% (294th), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (267th)
: Degree level 29%(361st), Minimal qualifications 29%(230th)
: Students 5% (479th), Over 65- 22% (170th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 94% from Bosworth, and 6% from NW Leicestershire.
87% of the old seat is in the new one, with 13% going to Mid Leicestershire
The other urban area in the seat is Barwell/Earl Shilton (a continuous urban area with two names) to the north-east of Hinckley on the way to Leicester, which has a population of just under 20,000, and accounts for about a fifth of the seat. Earl Shilton was the main historical settlement in west Leicestershire, but today the town is a little down-market of Hinckley, with higher routine and lower managerial occupations, only a fifth of the population with degrees, and a little more council housing. Unlike Hinckley it is however Conservative at local level, with the Liberal Democrats competitive in the eastern Earl Shilton ward, and Labour having their only significant vote in the constituency in the western Barwell ward.
Most of the rest of the seat is Bosworth, accounting for just under a quarter of the voters but most of the land. This is flat agricultural land with the Ashby canal winding its way north from Coventry through the west side of the seat, full of sleepy villages, including the splendidly named Sheepy Magna. The two largest villages are Desford and Newbold Verdon in the east, with tiny and rather twee Market Bosworth in the centre, connected by a toy train to the famous battlefield site, alongside the Ashby canal, where there is a visitor centre. Managerial occupations are high throughout, and it is competitive between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives at local level. The Barlestone ward in the north is noticeably down-market, adjoining the now defunct Leicestershire coalfield to the north. There was actually a deep pit at Desford, although there is no sign of it now in a pleasant rural village.
The old Bosworth seat was oversized. In the boundary changes two wards in the north-east of the District have been removed to the much altered and renamed Mid Leicestershire seat. These are Ratby - a commuter village for Leicester alongside the M1, and Markfield, halfway between Leicester and Coalville, with a mining history and some Labour votes. These 10,000 voters have been replaced by 4000 voters from the rural south-west of North West Leicestershire District around the villages of Appleby and Donisthorpe. The latter is an old mining village, and consequently a little down market, but both normally vote Conservative .
Although the Liberal Democrats control the local council, being dominant in Hinckley, and competitive in much of the rural territory, at parliamentary level this is a very safe Conservative seat, with among their top 30 majorities in 2019. However the Liberal Democrats have carried across more of their local support than in many other areas, coming fairly close to winning the seat in 2010, and retaining much more of their support than usual in the post-coalition election of 2015 when they remained second. However their vote has continued to fall, and Labour is now showing in second place, although it is far from clear where their vote comes from. The boundary changes probably slightly strengthen the Conservatives. The new MP here, elected in 2019, is Luke Evans, a former GP.
Census data: Owner-occupied 74% (69/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (438th), social rented 11% (496th).
: White 95%(187th), Black 1%(417th), South Asian 2%(341st), Mixed 2%(380th), Other 1%(436th)
: Managerial & professional 38% (294th), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (267th)
: Degree level 29%(361st), Minimal qualifications 29%(230th)
: Students 5% (479th), Over 65- 22% (170th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 94% from Bosworth, and 6% from NW Leicestershire.
87% of the old seat is in the new one, with 13% going to Mid Leicestershire
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 31,864 | 56.7 | 36,056 | 63.9 | 31,800 | 64.6 |
Labour | 13,513 | 24.1 | 9,778 | 17.3 | 6,997 | 14.2 |
Liberal Democrat | 9,744 | 17.3 | 9,096 | 16.1 | 8,949 | 18.2 |
Green | 1,047 | 1.9 | 1,502 | 2.7 | 1,446 | 2.9 |
| Majority | 18,351 | 32.7 | 26,278 | 46.6 | 22,851 | 46.5 |