Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2023 18:13:09 GMT
Devon was granted a 12th Constituency in the boundary review that came into place before the 2010 election, and there is little doubt that this was the new constituency. It is a bit of a rag bag and is geographically in the middle of the county to the West and South West of Exeter. It was formed from territory from 5 existing constituencies, 4 District council areas and has three distinct areas within it. Links between the towns are not fantastic as the 2 main trunk roads through this constituency- the A30 and the A38 - run East/ West and North/ South respectively and join at Exeter and the links across Dartmoor in the centre of the constituency are not as good. Most of the small towns are in the corners of the seat- the biggest town is Crediton which has a population of 8000. If anything unites the towns it is a small market town economy and being within the cultural and business orbit of Exeter.
Satisfied with their work, or perhaps more realistically adopting the principal of minimum change, despite Devon gaining an extra half a constituency in total this time, there are only minor boundary changes to this seat in the middle of the County with some minor alignment to match to local government ward boundaries and the transfer of about 1500 voters in the Exe Valley to the north of Exeter to Exeter East and Exmouth.
This all leaves us with a constituency which is 94.6% white British and with an older age profile than average with 49% of people being over 50 and the constituency ranking 51st nationally for the percentage of people aged over 65. The percentage of people between 16-25 here is relatively low. 44% of people here own their homes outright, which puts it into the top 50 constituencies for that measure. The lack of large industry means that it is the constituency with the 7th highest percentage of people who are self employed or work for small businesses. This is a seat of little industry or large business.
The first of the three main areas of population is south of Exeter along the A38. This territory was originally taken from the oversized Teignbridge and South Hams seats and includes the small towns of Ashburton, Buckfastleigh and Bovey Tracey. Ashburton has a population of 4000 and was the first place to elect a Monster Raving Loony representative when Alan Hope was elected to the town council. Buckfastleigh has a population of 3000 and Bovey Tracey about 5000. These small towns are about half way between Exeter and Plymouth and are commuter bases to Exeter, Plymouth and Torquay.
The second distinct area is along the A30 to the north of Dartmoor. This section came from Devon West and Torridge and includes the town of Okehampton. Okehampton is a small market town on the edge of Dartmoor, which was founded on the wool trade and has a population of 6000.
The third and final section is to the North and North West of Exeter. This area originally came from the Tiverton and Honiton seat and includes the town of Crediton. Crediton is the largest town in this constituency and was also founded on the wool trade, and is one of the better sections of the seat for the Liberal Democrats.
This constituency spans four local authority areas and the cumulative number of councillors elected in this constituency in the 2023 local elections was 20 Liberal Democrats, 13 Conservative, 6 Green and 4 Independent.
When this seat was first formed it had a notional Conservative majority from the year 2005 of 2,338 over the Liberal Democrats. It seems likely that this seat would have been close between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 1997 and 2001 had it existed then. Conservative MP Mel Stride has so far never been in much difficulty here though. He won the inaugural contest in 2010 by 9000 and has won more comfortably since then. In 2019 he achieved a majority of 17,721.
One curiosity here for psephological forums ( do we know any of those?) is that Labour have achieved second place in 2017 and 2019. In 2017, they achieved 27% of the vote- not bad for Rural Devon- and this only slipped to 25% in 2019. The question is where does this Labour vote come from? Local elections don’t give us much of a clue- as noted Labour didn’t win any district council seats here in 2023 and haven’t for a long time. In the Devon County council elections in 2021, in the five divisions wholly in this constituency they got 13%, 12%, 11%, 9% and 8%.
Our clues include that there are a lot of public sector workers working in Exeter at Councils, Hospitals and Colleges many of whom live outside of the city boundary in villages in this seat. Labour must also have been competitive in the towns, with their highest vote share likely to have been in Okehampton and Crediton, where they did manage a 2nd place in one of the district wards in 2023.
The Conservative majority here is about 30% and one of the more unlikely results when 2019-24 opinion polls have been extrapolated to give constituency forecasts is Labour gain Central Devon. On paper it is a target of similar size for Labour as more traditional marginals like Nuneaton, Plymouth Moor View and Sherwood. It does feel a lot less likely that Labour could win here than in those places, but if they did we really will be asking ‘ where does the Labour vote come from’
Satisfied with their work, or perhaps more realistically adopting the principal of minimum change, despite Devon gaining an extra half a constituency in total this time, there are only minor boundary changes to this seat in the middle of the County with some minor alignment to match to local government ward boundaries and the transfer of about 1500 voters in the Exe Valley to the north of Exeter to Exeter East and Exmouth.
This all leaves us with a constituency which is 94.6% white British and with an older age profile than average with 49% of people being over 50 and the constituency ranking 51st nationally for the percentage of people aged over 65. The percentage of people between 16-25 here is relatively low. 44% of people here own their homes outright, which puts it into the top 50 constituencies for that measure. The lack of large industry means that it is the constituency with the 7th highest percentage of people who are self employed or work for small businesses. This is a seat of little industry or large business.
The first of the three main areas of population is south of Exeter along the A38. This territory was originally taken from the oversized Teignbridge and South Hams seats and includes the small towns of Ashburton, Buckfastleigh and Bovey Tracey. Ashburton has a population of 4000 and was the first place to elect a Monster Raving Loony representative when Alan Hope was elected to the town council. Buckfastleigh has a population of 3000 and Bovey Tracey about 5000. These small towns are about half way between Exeter and Plymouth and are commuter bases to Exeter, Plymouth and Torquay.
The second distinct area is along the A30 to the north of Dartmoor. This section came from Devon West and Torridge and includes the town of Okehampton. Okehampton is a small market town on the edge of Dartmoor, which was founded on the wool trade and has a population of 6000.
The third and final section is to the North and North West of Exeter. This area originally came from the Tiverton and Honiton seat and includes the town of Crediton. Crediton is the largest town in this constituency and was also founded on the wool trade, and is one of the better sections of the seat for the Liberal Democrats.
This constituency spans four local authority areas and the cumulative number of councillors elected in this constituency in the 2023 local elections was 20 Liberal Democrats, 13 Conservative, 6 Green and 4 Independent.
When this seat was first formed it had a notional Conservative majority from the year 2005 of 2,338 over the Liberal Democrats. It seems likely that this seat would have been close between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 1997 and 2001 had it existed then. Conservative MP Mel Stride has so far never been in much difficulty here though. He won the inaugural contest in 2010 by 9000 and has won more comfortably since then. In 2019 he achieved a majority of 17,721.
One curiosity here for psephological forums ( do we know any of those?) is that Labour have achieved second place in 2017 and 2019. In 2017, they achieved 27% of the vote- not bad for Rural Devon- and this only slipped to 25% in 2019. The question is where does this Labour vote come from? Local elections don’t give us much of a clue- as noted Labour didn’t win any district council seats here in 2023 and haven’t for a long time. In the Devon County council elections in 2021, in the five divisions wholly in this constituency they got 13%, 12%, 11%, 9% and 8%.
Our clues include that there are a lot of public sector workers working in Exeter at Councils, Hospitals and Colleges many of whom live outside of the city boundary in villages in this seat. Labour must also have been competitive in the towns, with their highest vote share likely to have been in Okehampton and Crediton, where they did manage a 2nd place in one of the district wards in 2023.
The Conservative majority here is about 30% and one of the more unlikely results when 2019-24 opinion polls have been extrapolated to give constituency forecasts is Labour gain Central Devon. On paper it is a target of similar size for Labour as more traditional marginals like Nuneaton, Plymouth Moor View and Sherwood. It does feel a lot less likely that Labour could win here than in those places, but if they did we really will be asking ‘ where does the Labour vote come from’
