Post by John Chanin on Oct 11, 2023 13:25:31 GMT
This seat covers the Northamptonshire hills at the Midlands watershed, with a thriving population of wind turbines. The headwaters of the rivers Leam and Avon flow west to the Bristol Channel, the Nene and Welland east to the Wash, the Cherwell south to the Thames, and just over the border in Leicestershire, the Anker and Soar to the Trent and Humber.
Northamptonshire posed a problem for the Boundary Commission. The replacement of the county and districts by two unitaries meant that both used the large county wards at their first elections. Worse, the county was close to the maximum size for 7 seats, so there was little room for manoeuvre. So ward splits were required, alongside the usual attempt to seek minimum change. For Daventry this has meant the loss of the Bugbrooke area west of Northampton town, and its replacement by the whole of the new Earls Barton ward, across the unitary boundary in North Northamptonshire. Still short of enough voters the Commission has added a sliver of Silverstone ward, previously in South Northamptonshire, to the west of the A361, consisting of the villages of Upper and Lower Boddington. Essentially the areas lost and gained are all rural and Conservative, but since more has been lost than gained, the Conservative majority is likely to drop a little.
The seat is still based on the former Daventry District. Daventry was a small market town until after the second world war, with a prominent hill fort to its east, when it became one of a number of Midlands towns to be expanded, primarily from Birmingham, who built most of the new estates. As a result there is a lot of renting in the town, with only 60% owner-occupation, and only 30% in managerial jobs, with nearly 40% in routine and semi-routine jobs, and only 25% with degrees. The town’s central location close to motorways has kept the economy in good order, although the town never grew in the same way as other Birmingham overspill. It has 28,000 inhabitants and amounts to about a quarter of the seat. Daventry unsurprisingly forms the only real Labour strength in the constituency, although the Conservatives took 5 of the 6 seats at the first elections for the new authority in 2021.
The rest of the former Daventry district consists of sparsely populated rolling countryside, full of small sleepy villages. The north is in the hinterland of Market Harborough, and contains the famous civil war Naseby battle site. Barby and Kilsby in the north-west are effectively suburbs of Rugby, Moulton in the east has been absorbed by the Northampton suburbs. There are two small towns with a population just over 5000 - Brixworth, with its anglo-saxon church close to the giant Pitsford Water reservoir, a nature reserve, and Long Buckby. The Northamptonshire highlands are bisected by a deep valley through which runs the M1, the west coast main line, the Grand Union canal, and in ancient times Watling Street, which formed the boundary with the Danelaw in anglo-saxon times. In the middle of this valley (often known as the Watford Gap after the village at its northern end) sits Long Buckby, with the only railway station in the constituency. The whole area is uniformly middle-class, with over 40% in managerial jobs, and minimal social housing. It is solidly Conservative, although there is some Liberal Democrat activity adjoining their stronghold in south-east Rugby, and in Brixworth.
The other component of the seat is the small town of Earls Barton between Northampton and Wellingborough, which is a little anomalous in this seat. This is a fine old market town, with little modern development and an anglo-saxon history, and actually the second largest settlement in the constituency, despite having little over 5000 population. Earls Barton is a little down market from the countryside, and does have a few Labour votes, although not enough to win the ward, certainly since the addition of a large and sparsely populated rural area to the north with an extra 4000 voters, which is very similar to the rural areas already in the seat.
When first created in its present form in 2010 this was the 15th safest Conservative seat in the country. It has slid down the list a little, more through developments elsewhere than any change here, where the Conservative majority remains a comfortable 40% or so. The MP here since 2010 is Chris Heaton-Harris, a former London businessman, MEP, and leading member of the European Research Group, and currently with the thankless task of being the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
Census data: Owner-occupied 73% (90/575 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (492nd), social rented 13% (394th).
: White 94%(210th), Black 1%(292nd), South Asian 1%(355th), Mixed 2%(327th), Other 1%(457th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (184th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (382nd)
: Degree level 34%(238th), Minimal qualifications 26%(358th)
: Students 5% (452nd), Over 65: 21% (212th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 92% from Daventry, 6% from Wellingborough, and 2% from South Northamptonshire.
90% of the old seat is in the new one, with 10% going to South Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire posed a problem for the Boundary Commission. The replacement of the county and districts by two unitaries meant that both used the large county wards at their first elections. Worse, the county was close to the maximum size for 7 seats, so there was little room for manoeuvre. So ward splits were required, alongside the usual attempt to seek minimum change. For Daventry this has meant the loss of the Bugbrooke area west of Northampton town, and its replacement by the whole of the new Earls Barton ward, across the unitary boundary in North Northamptonshire. Still short of enough voters the Commission has added a sliver of Silverstone ward, previously in South Northamptonshire, to the west of the A361, consisting of the villages of Upper and Lower Boddington. Essentially the areas lost and gained are all rural and Conservative, but since more has been lost than gained, the Conservative majority is likely to drop a little.
The seat is still based on the former Daventry District. Daventry was a small market town until after the second world war, with a prominent hill fort to its east, when it became one of a number of Midlands towns to be expanded, primarily from Birmingham, who built most of the new estates. As a result there is a lot of renting in the town, with only 60% owner-occupation, and only 30% in managerial jobs, with nearly 40% in routine and semi-routine jobs, and only 25% with degrees. The town’s central location close to motorways has kept the economy in good order, although the town never grew in the same way as other Birmingham overspill. It has 28,000 inhabitants and amounts to about a quarter of the seat. Daventry unsurprisingly forms the only real Labour strength in the constituency, although the Conservatives took 5 of the 6 seats at the first elections for the new authority in 2021.
The rest of the former Daventry district consists of sparsely populated rolling countryside, full of small sleepy villages. The north is in the hinterland of Market Harborough, and contains the famous civil war Naseby battle site. Barby and Kilsby in the north-west are effectively suburbs of Rugby, Moulton in the east has been absorbed by the Northampton suburbs. There are two small towns with a population just over 5000 - Brixworth, with its anglo-saxon church close to the giant Pitsford Water reservoir, a nature reserve, and Long Buckby. The Northamptonshire highlands are bisected by a deep valley through which runs the M1, the west coast main line, the Grand Union canal, and in ancient times Watling Street, which formed the boundary with the Danelaw in anglo-saxon times. In the middle of this valley (often known as the Watford Gap after the village at its northern end) sits Long Buckby, with the only railway station in the constituency. The whole area is uniformly middle-class, with over 40% in managerial jobs, and minimal social housing. It is solidly Conservative, although there is some Liberal Democrat activity adjoining their stronghold in south-east Rugby, and in Brixworth.
The other component of the seat is the small town of Earls Barton between Northampton and Wellingborough, which is a little anomalous in this seat. This is a fine old market town, with little modern development and an anglo-saxon history, and actually the second largest settlement in the constituency, despite having little over 5000 population. Earls Barton is a little down market from the countryside, and does have a few Labour votes, although not enough to win the ward, certainly since the addition of a large and sparsely populated rural area to the north with an extra 4000 voters, which is very similar to the rural areas already in the seat.
When first created in its present form in 2010 this was the 15th safest Conservative seat in the country. It has slid down the list a little, more through developments elsewhere than any change here, where the Conservative majority remains a comfortable 40% or so. The MP here since 2010 is Chris Heaton-Harris, a former London businessman, MEP, and leading member of the European Research Group, and currently with the thankless task of being the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
Census data: Owner-occupied 73% (90/575 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (492nd), social rented 13% (394th).
: White 94%(210th), Black 1%(292nd), South Asian 1%(355th), Mixed 2%(327th), Other 1%(457th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (184th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (382nd)
: Degree level 34%(238th), Minimal qualifications 26%(358th)
: Students 5% (452nd), Over 65: 21% (212th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 92% from Daventry, 6% from Wellingborough, and 2% from South Northamptonshire.
90% of the old seat is in the new one, with 10% going to South Northamptonshire
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 35,464 | 63.7 | 37,055 | 64.6 | 36,735 | 64.5 |
Labour | 13,730 | 24.7 | 10,975 | 19.1 | 10,123 | 17.8 |
Liberal Democrat | 4,015 | 7.2 | 7,032 | 12.3 | 7,474 | 13.1 |
UKIP | 1,497 | 2.7 | ||||
Green | 957 | 1.7 | 2,341 | 4.1 | 2,624 | 4.6 |
| Majority | 21,734 | 39.0 | 26,080 | 45.4 | 26,612 | 46.7 |