Post by Robert Waller on Oct 11, 2023 12:52:57 GMT
In terms of politics and of parliamentary constituencies Airdrie has been strongly associated with Coatbridge. There was a Westminster seat of Coatbridge & Airdrie between 1950 and 1983. Both are gritty industrial towns in Scotland’s central belt, located pretty much due east of Glasgow, now on the other side of the M73 motorway and just north of the M8. However, the relationship between these ‘twins’ has not always been smooth. Even after their umbilical link in terms of constituency lines was broken when Coatbridge went into Monklands West in 1983, and Airdrie formed the core of Monklands East, they were still in the same local authority. For some years towards the end of the 20th century, the local Labour Party has been riven by internal dissension over the question of whether councillors from Coatbridge (who all happened to be Catholics) denied influence in the local council to representatives from Airdrie, which, by (exaggerated) tradition is a Protestant town. Monklands was in turn superseded by North Lanarkshire in 1996, and the constituency name changes followed in 1997, when Airdrie and Shotts was created. It underwent substantial boundary changes in 2005 and is scheduled for more minor ones before the next general election. It will still not be reunited with Coatbridge.
Airdrie would probably claim to have had some more distinguished (or at least better known) recent MPs than its neighbour to the west. For a start it is quite likely that John Smith would have become a Labour Prime Minister but for his tragic death at the age of 55 early in 1994. He was member for Monklands East, but he would have assumed the Premiership (presuming Labour would still have won the 1997 election) while representing the seat to be known as Airdrie and Shotts. Helen Liddell, who became John Smith’s successor here after initial tough fight against the SNP in the 1994 by-election, became Secretary of State for Scotland in Tony Blair’s second government, serving from 2001 to 2003 before eventually leaving to be British High Commissioner to Australia. In 2005 she was succeeded as Airdrie & Shotts MP by a man migrating from the neighbouring Hamilton North & Bellshill, eviscerated in the boundary changes that took effect in 2005, even though that seat only contributed 13.7% of the electors in this one. John Reid seemed determined to break some kind of record by amassing a total of seven different Cabinet positions, before finally resigning (as Home Secretary) in June 2007 and leaving the Commons in 2010. Throughout this period Coatbridge had only one member, the unassuming Tom Clarke.
Both the Airdrie based and Coatbridge based seats fell to the SNP in their 2015 sweep and Airdrie, unlike its neighbour, did not return to Labour between 2017 and 2019. Even when the Nationalist MP Neil Gray resigned to switch to the Scottish Parliament in 2021, causing a byelection criticized by some for costing £175,000 (estimate by North Lanarkshire council), Anum Qaisar held Airdrie & Shotts with only a small swing to Labour.
Apart from Airdrie itself, which has a population of around 36,000, this constituency consists of countryside studded with small, mainly industrial, communities. North of the M8 are Calderbank, Glenmavis, Plains and Caldercruix. South of it we find the former ironmaking town of Newmains, Holytown, Newarthill, Bonkle and Shotts, which is only just the second largest population centre, housing a mere 9,000 souls. Airdrie itself displays many familiar characteristics of Scottish industrial history: initial growth through weaving, coal and iron; partial replacement of these staples by interim employers such as Boots pharmaceuticals and Pye electrics; and then in turn the departure of these and the foundation of commercial and light industrial estates, in this case Newhouse, Chapelhall, and Brownsburn, all arrayed in a kind of southern spoke along the A73 connected the town to the M8. Airdrie’s central Scottish location is clearly key to its modern employment prospects.
The same applies to the residential stock. All the communities in the seat have plenty of inter war and 1950s semi detached former council estates. In Airdrie, for example, these can be found at Gartlea in its south eastern quadrant, Coatdyke at its western extremity, Thrashbush (north), Rochsoles (further north) and Whinhall ( north-west). But there are also estates of new private housing, such as those near Drumgelloch to the east, Rawyards (north-east) and Cairnhill to the south. There are also some solid classical older up-market streets (to be found even in Coatbridge too), such as Victoria Place and the eastern part of Forrest Street. Again, the transport links mean that good value can be had in the housing market, and the percentage social rented has declined, even though the seat as a whole still ranks in the top 40 in the UK on that measure.
Although there may have been a faint shadow of sectarianism in the near deposit-saving 1,439 votes polled by the only ‘Scottish Unionist’ candidate contesting a seat in the 2001 General Election, actually pipping the Scottish Socialist in the battle for fifth and sixth place, the modern political battle in Airdrie & Shotts is clearly between the SNP and Labour. Indeed the most recent census suggests that, despite that reputation, in Airdrie Central and South wards a plurality of respondents said that were Roman Catholics, though with Protestants and ‘no religion’ not far behind. The two party battle applies to North Lanarkshire elections as well as those for Westminster and Holyrood. In May 2022 the Nationalists led on first preferences in Airdrie North and Airdrie South, and Mossend & Holytown. It should be noted that the two Airdrie wards mentioned here both include extensive territory outside that town itself, and only part of Mossend & Holytown is currently in this constituency. Labour narrowly led in Airdrie Central, which is a compact urban ward, and more convincingly in Fortissat, which covers Shotts and a large surrounding rural area. The Scottish Conservatives’ best showing was 17% in Airdrie South., and the Liberal Democrats were nowhere to be seen anywhere in North Lanarkshire.
In the boundary review, there were some changes of plan. In the revised recommendations of 2022, for example, over 10,000 voters would have been transferred into this seat from Motherwell & Wishaw, mainly in Motherwell North ward, while a smaller section including around 4,000 electors would have moved in the other direction, essentially Newmains. A few streets in Coatdyke will also switch to the Coatbridge seat, but that is unlikely to restart any culture wars. For some reason, although the division will still include Shotts, it was suggested its name should be just plain Airdrie.
Then in the final report published in June 2023, some of these changes were reversed. Fewer voters were now to be brought in from Motherwell North, and the boundary in the New Stevenston and Holytown station area is now to be the Glasgow-Edinburgh railway line, so Carfin for example remains in the Motherwell based seat. Meanwhile, fewer in Murdostoun ward move in the other direction, in particular, Newmains is no longer to be switched. Overall there is less change. The Airdrie and Shotts name is restored.
There is no detectable political impact of the boundary changes. The SNP should start the next Westminster contest with a notional majority over Labour of between 5,000 and 6,000 votes. As we are in North Lanarkshire, one of only four authorities that actually voted for independence in 2014, it is likely still to be a battle for Labour to win the new Airdrie, though there must be a chance of squeezing the residual Conservative vote of over 17% in 2019 along ‘unionist’ lines, already prefigured to some extent in the 2021 byelection; and it should be recalled that they lost by only 195 votes in the 2017 general election. With the apparent precipitate decline of the SNP in 2023 although care should be taken in extrapolating the massive October swing to Labour in the byelection in Rutherglen & Hamilton West around 10 miles away, Labour will consider themselves favourites here unless something else dramatic happens. In any case, like Coatbridge & Bellshill, Airdrie and Shotts will be a key target marginal for Labour in their forthcoming bid to form a UK government for the first time in nearly twenty years.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.9% 464/650
Owner-occupied 60.2% 474/650
Private rented 7.0% 644/650
Social rented 32.1% 39/650
White 98.4% 62/650
Black 0.2% 567/650
Asian 1.2% 477 /650
Christian 70.1% 4/59
Managerial & professional 21.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 35.8%
Degree level 15.5% 622 /650
No qualifications 36.0% 14/650
Students 6.3% 428/650
2022 Census
Age 65+ 17.4%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Airdrie and Shotts
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Neil Gray 17,929 45.0 +7.4
Labour Helen McFarlane 12,728 31.9 −5.2
Conservative Lorraine Nolan 7,011 17.6 −5.6
Liberal Democrats William Crossman 1,419 3.6 +1.5
Green Rosemary McGowan 685 1.7 New
SNP Majority 5,201 13.1 +12.6
2019 electorate 64,008
Turnout 39,772 62.3 +3.1
SNP hold
Swing 6.3 Lab to SNP
By-election 13 May 2021: Airdrie and Shotts
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Anum Qaisar 10,129 46.4 +1.4
Labour Kenneth Stevenson 8,372 38.4 +6.5
Conservative Ben Callaghan 2,812 12.9 –4.7
Liberal Democrats Stephen Arrundale 220 1.0 –2.6
SDP Neil Manson 151 0.7 New
Scottish Unionist Jonathan Stanley 59 0.3 New
Reform UK Martyn Greene 45 0.2 New
UKIP Donald Mackay 39 0.2 New
SNP Majority 1,757 8.0 –5.1
Turnout 21,827 34.3 –28.0
SNP hold
Swing 2.5 SNP to Lab
Boundary Changes
Airdrie and Shotts will consist of
98.8% of Airdrie & Shotts
9.6% of Motherwell & Wishaw
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Airdrie_and_Shotts_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
I think it is also worth adding this contribution from @ntyuk1707on the 'present seat' thread:
There is often a simple analogy deployed to compare Airdrie as a Protestant Unionist town and Coatbridge as a Catholic Nationalist town in the attempt of dissecting voting behaviour in North Lanarkshire.
The truth is however that all major towns in North Lanarkshire voted in favour of independence to varying degrees in 2014: Cumbernauld, Coatbridge, Airdrie and Motherwell, and Airdrie today has a near equal number of Roman Catholics and Protestants.
Labour have traditionally enjoyed a strong undercurrent of support throughout North Lanarkshire, which formed a core part of the "Red Clydeside" movement - culminating in an upwelling of Labour support in Glasgow and Clyde at the 1922 general election. It is perhaps worth noting however that there were cracks in Labour's dominance of North Lanarkshire dating back to the election of the first SNP MP in the 1945 Motherwell by-election and the election of an SNP MP in Cumbernauld in 1974, which then came to fore across the Central Belt with the SNP landslide in 2015.
Going back to the Protestant-Catholic analogy: No-voting Roman Catholic areas like Kilsyth, Bellshill and the Northern Corridor clearly underline the limitations of this analogy in North Lanarkshire, however it is worth noting that there are pockets of disproportionately high rates of unionism in Scotland in areas which were traditionally Protestant, including Shotts and its surrounding communities within the Airdrie & Shotts constituency, which has remain a bastion of Labour support in the ebb and flow of SNP support here. From Shotts and up along the Breich Valley towards Livingston you can indeed find many Union Jacks flying on lamp posts and lining the streets, in marked contrast to other parts of North Lanarkshire, West Lothian and most of the rest of Scotland.
This was residual Unionist vote was enough to nudge Airdrie and Shotts constituency into the No-voting bracket in the 2014 referendum, albeit by a margin of just 51% No, 49% Yes.
This constituency, like neighbouring Motherwell & Wishaw and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, is an urban area on the periphery of Glasgow with many areas of high deprivation. It is a traditional Labour heartland, fallen to the SNP, and a key target seat for the Labour party looking on to the next general election.
If polling and reports of internal polls that put Labour up to 12 seats in Scotland are to be believed, this area is clearly back in contention for Scottish Labour, along with many of their former strongholds in Greater Glasgow.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West is almost the perfect mirror of this seat politically, so if a by-election takes place there in which Labour win by a good margin, expect them to be heavily targeting this constituency ahead of the next general election.
Airdrie would probably claim to have had some more distinguished (or at least better known) recent MPs than its neighbour to the west. For a start it is quite likely that John Smith would have become a Labour Prime Minister but for his tragic death at the age of 55 early in 1994. He was member for Monklands East, but he would have assumed the Premiership (presuming Labour would still have won the 1997 election) while representing the seat to be known as Airdrie and Shotts. Helen Liddell, who became John Smith’s successor here after initial tough fight against the SNP in the 1994 by-election, became Secretary of State for Scotland in Tony Blair’s second government, serving from 2001 to 2003 before eventually leaving to be British High Commissioner to Australia. In 2005 she was succeeded as Airdrie & Shotts MP by a man migrating from the neighbouring Hamilton North & Bellshill, eviscerated in the boundary changes that took effect in 2005, even though that seat only contributed 13.7% of the electors in this one. John Reid seemed determined to break some kind of record by amassing a total of seven different Cabinet positions, before finally resigning (as Home Secretary) in June 2007 and leaving the Commons in 2010. Throughout this period Coatbridge had only one member, the unassuming Tom Clarke.
Both the Airdrie based and Coatbridge based seats fell to the SNP in their 2015 sweep and Airdrie, unlike its neighbour, did not return to Labour between 2017 and 2019. Even when the Nationalist MP Neil Gray resigned to switch to the Scottish Parliament in 2021, causing a byelection criticized by some for costing £175,000 (estimate by North Lanarkshire council), Anum Qaisar held Airdrie & Shotts with only a small swing to Labour.
Apart from Airdrie itself, which has a population of around 36,000, this constituency consists of countryside studded with small, mainly industrial, communities. North of the M8 are Calderbank, Glenmavis, Plains and Caldercruix. South of it we find the former ironmaking town of Newmains, Holytown, Newarthill, Bonkle and Shotts, which is only just the second largest population centre, housing a mere 9,000 souls. Airdrie itself displays many familiar characteristics of Scottish industrial history: initial growth through weaving, coal and iron; partial replacement of these staples by interim employers such as Boots pharmaceuticals and Pye electrics; and then in turn the departure of these and the foundation of commercial and light industrial estates, in this case Newhouse, Chapelhall, and Brownsburn, all arrayed in a kind of southern spoke along the A73 connected the town to the M8. Airdrie’s central Scottish location is clearly key to its modern employment prospects.
The same applies to the residential stock. All the communities in the seat have plenty of inter war and 1950s semi detached former council estates. In Airdrie, for example, these can be found at Gartlea in its south eastern quadrant, Coatdyke at its western extremity, Thrashbush (north), Rochsoles (further north) and Whinhall ( north-west). But there are also estates of new private housing, such as those near Drumgelloch to the east, Rawyards (north-east) and Cairnhill to the south. There are also some solid classical older up-market streets (to be found even in Coatbridge too), such as Victoria Place and the eastern part of Forrest Street. Again, the transport links mean that good value can be had in the housing market, and the percentage social rented has declined, even though the seat as a whole still ranks in the top 40 in the UK on that measure.
Although there may have been a faint shadow of sectarianism in the near deposit-saving 1,439 votes polled by the only ‘Scottish Unionist’ candidate contesting a seat in the 2001 General Election, actually pipping the Scottish Socialist in the battle for fifth and sixth place, the modern political battle in Airdrie & Shotts is clearly between the SNP and Labour. Indeed the most recent census suggests that, despite that reputation, in Airdrie Central and South wards a plurality of respondents said that were Roman Catholics, though with Protestants and ‘no religion’ not far behind. The two party battle applies to North Lanarkshire elections as well as those for Westminster and Holyrood. In May 2022 the Nationalists led on first preferences in Airdrie North and Airdrie South, and Mossend & Holytown. It should be noted that the two Airdrie wards mentioned here both include extensive territory outside that town itself, and only part of Mossend & Holytown is currently in this constituency. Labour narrowly led in Airdrie Central, which is a compact urban ward, and more convincingly in Fortissat, which covers Shotts and a large surrounding rural area. The Scottish Conservatives’ best showing was 17% in Airdrie South., and the Liberal Democrats were nowhere to be seen anywhere in North Lanarkshire.
In the boundary review, there were some changes of plan. In the revised recommendations of 2022, for example, over 10,000 voters would have been transferred into this seat from Motherwell & Wishaw, mainly in Motherwell North ward, while a smaller section including around 4,000 electors would have moved in the other direction, essentially Newmains. A few streets in Coatdyke will also switch to the Coatbridge seat, but that is unlikely to restart any culture wars. For some reason, although the division will still include Shotts, it was suggested its name should be just plain Airdrie.
Then in the final report published in June 2023, some of these changes were reversed. Fewer voters were now to be brought in from Motherwell North, and the boundary in the New Stevenston and Holytown station area is now to be the Glasgow-Edinburgh railway line, so Carfin for example remains in the Motherwell based seat. Meanwhile, fewer in Murdostoun ward move in the other direction, in particular, Newmains is no longer to be switched. Overall there is less change. The Airdrie and Shotts name is restored.
There is no detectable political impact of the boundary changes. The SNP should start the next Westminster contest with a notional majority over Labour of between 5,000 and 6,000 votes. As we are in North Lanarkshire, one of only four authorities that actually voted for independence in 2014, it is likely still to be a battle for Labour to win the new Airdrie, though there must be a chance of squeezing the residual Conservative vote of over 17% in 2019 along ‘unionist’ lines, already prefigured to some extent in the 2021 byelection; and it should be recalled that they lost by only 195 votes in the 2017 general election. With the apparent precipitate decline of the SNP in 2023 although care should be taken in extrapolating the massive October swing to Labour in the byelection in Rutherglen & Hamilton West around 10 miles away, Labour will consider themselves favourites here unless something else dramatic happens. In any case, like Coatbridge & Bellshill, Airdrie and Shotts will be a key target marginal for Labour in their forthcoming bid to form a UK government for the first time in nearly twenty years.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.9% 464/650
Owner-occupied 60.2% 474/650
Private rented 7.0% 644/650
Social rented 32.1% 39/650
White 98.4% 62/650
Black 0.2% 567/650
Asian 1.2% 477 /650
Christian 70.1% 4/59
Managerial & professional 21.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 35.8%
Degree level 15.5% 622 /650
No qualifications 36.0% 14/650
Students 6.3% 428/650
2022 Census
Age 65+ 17.4%
Other details not yet available
General Election 2019: Airdrie and Shotts
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Neil Gray 17,929 45.0 +7.4
Labour Helen McFarlane 12,728 31.9 −5.2
Conservative Lorraine Nolan 7,011 17.6 −5.6
Liberal Democrats William Crossman 1,419 3.6 +1.5
Green Rosemary McGowan 685 1.7 New
SNP Majority 5,201 13.1 +12.6
2019 electorate 64,008
Turnout 39,772 62.3 +3.1
SNP hold
Swing 6.3 Lab to SNP
By-election 13 May 2021: Airdrie and Shotts
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Anum Qaisar 10,129 46.4 +1.4
Labour Kenneth Stevenson 8,372 38.4 +6.5
Conservative Ben Callaghan 2,812 12.9 –4.7
Liberal Democrats Stephen Arrundale 220 1.0 –2.6
SDP Neil Manson 151 0.7 New
Scottish Unionist Jonathan Stanley 59 0.3 New
Reform UK Martyn Greene 45 0.2 New
UKIP Donald Mackay 39 0.2 New
SNP Majority 1,757 8.0 –5.1
Turnout 21,827 34.3 –28.0
SNP hold
Swing 2.5 SNP to Lab
Boundary Changes
Airdrie and Shotts will consist of
98.8% of Airdrie & Shotts
9.6% of Motherwell & Wishaw
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Airdrie_and_Shotts_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 20667 | 44.6% |
| Lab | 15343 | 33.1% |
| Con | 8000 | 17.3% |
| LD | 1652 | 3.6% |
| Green | 676 | 1.5% |
| | ||
| Majority | 5324 | 11.5% |
I think it is also worth adding this contribution from @ntyuk1707on the 'present seat' thread:
The truth is however that all major towns in North Lanarkshire voted in favour of independence to varying degrees in 2014: Cumbernauld, Coatbridge, Airdrie and Motherwell, and Airdrie today has a near equal number of Roman Catholics and Protestants.
Labour have traditionally enjoyed a strong undercurrent of support throughout North Lanarkshire, which formed a core part of the "Red Clydeside" movement - culminating in an upwelling of Labour support in Glasgow and Clyde at the 1922 general election. It is perhaps worth noting however that there were cracks in Labour's dominance of North Lanarkshire dating back to the election of the first SNP MP in the 1945 Motherwell by-election and the election of an SNP MP in Cumbernauld in 1974, which then came to fore across the Central Belt with the SNP landslide in 2015.
Going back to the Protestant-Catholic analogy: No-voting Roman Catholic areas like Kilsyth, Bellshill and the Northern Corridor clearly underline the limitations of this analogy in North Lanarkshire, however it is worth noting that there are pockets of disproportionately high rates of unionism in Scotland in areas which were traditionally Protestant, including Shotts and its surrounding communities within the Airdrie & Shotts constituency, which has remain a bastion of Labour support in the ebb and flow of SNP support here. From Shotts and up along the Breich Valley towards Livingston you can indeed find many Union Jacks flying on lamp posts and lining the streets, in marked contrast to other parts of North Lanarkshire, West Lothian and most of the rest of Scotland.
This was residual Unionist vote was enough to nudge Airdrie and Shotts constituency into the No-voting bracket in the 2014 referendum, albeit by a margin of just 51% No, 49% Yes.
This constituency, like neighbouring Motherwell & Wishaw and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, is an urban area on the periphery of Glasgow with many areas of high deprivation. It is a traditional Labour heartland, fallen to the SNP, and a key target seat for the Labour party looking on to the next general election.
If polling and reports of internal polls that put Labour up to 12 seats in Scotland are to be believed, this area is clearly back in contention for Scottish Labour, along with many of their former strongholds in Greater Glasgow.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West is almost the perfect mirror of this seat politically, so if a by-election takes place there in which Labour win by a good margin, expect them to be heavily targeting this constituency ahead of the next general election.