Post by Robert Waller on Oct 9, 2023 18:56:35 GMT
Although the South East of England’s electorate has expanded so much that net it gains seven seats in the 2023 boundary changes, there is still one constituency that counts as ‘disappearing’, in that it is broken up into various parts none of which is the largest single element in any new seat. The bearer of this perhaps unfortunate distinction is Meon Valley in Hampshire, which has existed only since the most recent previous redistribution in 2010. 24.6% of Meon Valley will now be in the Winchester division 23.6% goes into East Hampshire, and 6% into a new ‘valley’ constituency, Hamble Valley. The largest single bloc, though, 45.7%, forms nearly half of Fareham & Waterlooville. But that is still not the base of this seat, because all the rest came from Fareham – which also happens to provide the single largest element in Hamble Valley. So Meon Valley’s extinction is mirrored by Fareham’s almost imperial expansionism.
Fareham & Waterlooville, though, is the seat which contains the town of Fareham itself. All five of Fareham’s own wards, with a total of 28,000 electors, are joined by the two wards of Portchester (over 14,000 voters) from the former Fareham constituency. The section taken from the Meon Valley seat, though, is not typical of its whole. There are some beautiful and desirable residential areas in the Meon Valley seat whose life span will run from 2010 to the general election expected in 2024. For example, take a drive along the A32 north from Wickham, with its large and elegant square, along the valley of the river Meon itself, watercress beds and all, through Droxford, Corhampton and West & East Meon themselves. If interested in cricket, deviate to Hambledon, with its Broadhalfpenny Down site of the club founded in 1750 and sometimes known as the ‘cradle of cricket’, to the private ground of the Hampshire Hogs near Warnford, and to East Meon, where Thomas Lord, known for the most famed ground in the world, is buried (so, incidentally, is Guy Burgess). But none of this area along the valley north of Wickham will be included in Fareham & Waterlooville.
Those parts lie not along the Meon but elsewhere; the communities tucked into the corner of this seat nearest to Portsmouth: Waterloo, Cowplain and Hart Plain, are all wards in the Havant borough. One thing that has to be admitted is that neither Fareham nor this Waterlooville section are among the physically most attractive parts of Hampshire. No sumptuous rolling hills or watercress laden river valleys here. The housing is functional, the architecture of the town centres undistinguished, to say the least. That is not, however, to say that this is not a thoroughly Conservative area. There is some feeing that this constituency is cobbled together from disparate parts. What is not disparate is its political preference.
In the most recent borough council elections in Fareham in May 2022, for example, the Conservatives won all the town’s wards except for East, very narrowly held by the Liberal Democrats. There were a variety of challengers taking second place, from the Lib Dems in North West to the Fareham Independents in North and Labour, who came closest, in South; which is actually the south west corner of Fareham, and includes one of the few blocs of social rented housing in the whole seat, between Longfield Avenue and Fairfield Avenue, some medium high rise. But Labour has not won South – or any ward in Fareham - since 1999. In bungaloid Fareham West, the Tories were still beating the LDs by over three to one in 2022. Since 2010 no party other that the Conservatives have won any local contest in Fareham ward except North. In the Hampshire county council election of May 2021, the Tories won the huge two member Fareham Town electoral division by over three to one, with their top candidate polling over 4,000 votes – and this on a 37% turnout. Yet no MSOA in Fareham in the 2021 census has over about 40% in professional and managerial occupations – and none had over 36.4% with educational degrees (Fareham Common), and most much less.
The picture is the same in Portchester. There is a fine medieval castle within a Roman fort on the shore of Portsmouth Harbour, but nothing else much remarkable about the community of nearly 18,000. The Liberal Democrats did narrowly win the combined Portchester ward in the county council contests in 2021, but in May 2022 the Tories won Portchester West in the borough council elections. The Lib Dems took both seats in Portchester East that May, but the Conservatives actually then managed a rare council byelection gain in that ward on 20 October 2022.
The ex-Meon valley constituency Havant borough section, along the A3 north of Portsmouth, is solidly Conservative, despite the presence of social housing in the Cowplain West and Waterlooville Central MSOAs. The terminal educational age is even lower than in Fareham. All three wards – Hart Plain, Cowplain and Waterloo – were very comfortably held even in the May council elections in the Tories’ annus horribilis of 2023.
Why are all these far from beautiful neighbourhoods that make up the new coupling of Fareham & Waterlooville, that appear so much part of middle Britain and are not wealthy, nor notably upscale in occupational class, nor education, so solidly Conservative? So much so, that Suella Braverman, Home Secretary and likely future leadership candidate for her party following its expected defeat in 2024, has opted to put herself forward here and been selected, and will almost certainly in due course be elected in its inaugural general election campaign?
The demographics directly tell us some of the story. According to the 2021 census Fareham & Waterlooville is one of the 50 most owner occupied constituencies in England and Wales, at over 75%. It is even further down the list for the private rented sector, burgeoning and often a mark of insecurity elsewhere. It is even more extreme as far as a lack of full time students is concerned. It is nearly 96% white, a very high figure for the South East region – there are tiny pockets of Asian residents only in central Fareham and in parts of its East ward (which is actually due south of the town centre).
But another clue lies somewhat hidden, in the middling educational achievement and lack of professional occupations. Farnham council voted over 55% to leave the EU, on a 79.6% turnout in 2016. In Havant the anti-European was even higher, at 62%. UKIP had finished second to the Conservatives in more than half the Fareham wards in 2014. It is probably no coincidence that Suella Braverman, with her tendency to nationalist rhetoric, was selected to succeed Mark Hoban and become the Conservative candidate in the 2015 general election. With Tory majorities of over 40% in December 2019 in both Fareham and Meon Valley, and probably the more favourable part of the latter included in this new seat, it is hard to see Fareham & Waterlooville, at least, standing in the way of her future career path.
There is one attractive area that was in the Meon Valley seat that has found itself in Fareham & Waterlooville. This is the Southwick & Wickham ward. As might be guessed from the fact that it is in the Winchester City council local authority, it is a rare (within the new seat as a whole) Liberal Democrat stronghold, which has favoured them continuously since 2016 and not elected a Tory since 2008, some Independents having being interspersed. Much of the detailed last minute planning for D Day took place at Southwick (this Hampshire one, not the larger town on the Sussex coast), lying as it does just over the downs from Portsmouth, as Southwick House (still in the hands of the Armed Forces) was Eisenhower’s SHAEF headquarters. Despite the local results in Southwick itself, any party other than the Conservatives planning a campaign to liberate the Fareham & Waterlooville seat might well need a similar massive effort – and with less chance of success.
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2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 24.8% 84/575
Owner occupied 75.4% 50/575
Private rented 13.2% 524/575
Social rented 11.4% 457/575
White 95.8% 150/575
Black 0.6% 426/575
Asian 1.9% 406/575
Managerial & professional 36.9% 179/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.4% 324/575
Degree level 29.6% 357/573
No qualifications 12.2% 353/573
Students 4.1% 549/575
General Election 2019: Fareham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Suella Braverman 36,459 63.7 +0.7
Labour Matthew Randall 10,373 18.1 -7.1
Liberal Democrats Matthew Winnington 8,006 14.0 +7.2
Green Nick Lyle 2,412 4.2 +1.9
C Majority 26,086 45.6 +7.8
2019 electorate 78,337
Turnout 57,250 73.1 +0.8
Conservative hold
Swing 3.9 Lab to C
General Election 2019: Meon Valley
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Flick Drummond 35,271 64.3 -1.4
Liberal Democrats Lewis North 11,716 21.4 +10.5
Labour Matthew Bunday 5,644 10.3 -8.0
Green Malcolm Wallace 2,198 4.0 +1.6
C Majority 23,555 43.0 -4.4
2019 electorate 75,737
Turnout 54,829 64.3 -0.6
Conservative hold
Swing 5.9 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Fareham and Waterlooville consists of
53.9% of Fareham
45.7% of Meon Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_317_Fareham%20and%20Waterlooville_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Fareham & Waterlooville, though, is the seat which contains the town of Fareham itself. All five of Fareham’s own wards, with a total of 28,000 electors, are joined by the two wards of Portchester (over 14,000 voters) from the former Fareham constituency. The section taken from the Meon Valley seat, though, is not typical of its whole. There are some beautiful and desirable residential areas in the Meon Valley seat whose life span will run from 2010 to the general election expected in 2024. For example, take a drive along the A32 north from Wickham, with its large and elegant square, along the valley of the river Meon itself, watercress beds and all, through Droxford, Corhampton and West & East Meon themselves. If interested in cricket, deviate to Hambledon, with its Broadhalfpenny Down site of the club founded in 1750 and sometimes known as the ‘cradle of cricket’, to the private ground of the Hampshire Hogs near Warnford, and to East Meon, where Thomas Lord, known for the most famed ground in the world, is buried (so, incidentally, is Guy Burgess). But none of this area along the valley north of Wickham will be included in Fareham & Waterlooville.
Those parts lie not along the Meon but elsewhere; the communities tucked into the corner of this seat nearest to Portsmouth: Waterloo, Cowplain and Hart Plain, are all wards in the Havant borough. One thing that has to be admitted is that neither Fareham nor this Waterlooville section are among the physically most attractive parts of Hampshire. No sumptuous rolling hills or watercress laden river valleys here. The housing is functional, the architecture of the town centres undistinguished, to say the least. That is not, however, to say that this is not a thoroughly Conservative area. There is some feeing that this constituency is cobbled together from disparate parts. What is not disparate is its political preference.
In the most recent borough council elections in Fareham in May 2022, for example, the Conservatives won all the town’s wards except for East, very narrowly held by the Liberal Democrats. There were a variety of challengers taking second place, from the Lib Dems in North West to the Fareham Independents in North and Labour, who came closest, in South; which is actually the south west corner of Fareham, and includes one of the few blocs of social rented housing in the whole seat, between Longfield Avenue and Fairfield Avenue, some medium high rise. But Labour has not won South – or any ward in Fareham - since 1999. In bungaloid Fareham West, the Tories were still beating the LDs by over three to one in 2022. Since 2010 no party other that the Conservatives have won any local contest in Fareham ward except North. In the Hampshire county council election of May 2021, the Tories won the huge two member Fareham Town electoral division by over three to one, with their top candidate polling over 4,000 votes – and this on a 37% turnout. Yet no MSOA in Fareham in the 2021 census has over about 40% in professional and managerial occupations – and none had over 36.4% with educational degrees (Fareham Common), and most much less.
The picture is the same in Portchester. There is a fine medieval castle within a Roman fort on the shore of Portsmouth Harbour, but nothing else much remarkable about the community of nearly 18,000. The Liberal Democrats did narrowly win the combined Portchester ward in the county council contests in 2021, but in May 2022 the Tories won Portchester West in the borough council elections. The Lib Dems took both seats in Portchester East that May, but the Conservatives actually then managed a rare council byelection gain in that ward on 20 October 2022.
The ex-Meon valley constituency Havant borough section, along the A3 north of Portsmouth, is solidly Conservative, despite the presence of social housing in the Cowplain West and Waterlooville Central MSOAs. The terminal educational age is even lower than in Fareham. All three wards – Hart Plain, Cowplain and Waterloo – were very comfortably held even in the May council elections in the Tories’ annus horribilis of 2023.
Why are all these far from beautiful neighbourhoods that make up the new coupling of Fareham & Waterlooville, that appear so much part of middle Britain and are not wealthy, nor notably upscale in occupational class, nor education, so solidly Conservative? So much so, that Suella Braverman, Home Secretary and likely future leadership candidate for her party following its expected defeat in 2024, has opted to put herself forward here and been selected, and will almost certainly in due course be elected in its inaugural general election campaign?
The demographics directly tell us some of the story. According to the 2021 census Fareham & Waterlooville is one of the 50 most owner occupied constituencies in England and Wales, at over 75%. It is even further down the list for the private rented sector, burgeoning and often a mark of insecurity elsewhere. It is even more extreme as far as a lack of full time students is concerned. It is nearly 96% white, a very high figure for the South East region – there are tiny pockets of Asian residents only in central Fareham and in parts of its East ward (which is actually due south of the town centre).
But another clue lies somewhat hidden, in the middling educational achievement and lack of professional occupations. Farnham council voted over 55% to leave the EU, on a 79.6% turnout in 2016. In Havant the anti-European was even higher, at 62%. UKIP had finished second to the Conservatives in more than half the Fareham wards in 2014. It is probably no coincidence that Suella Braverman, with her tendency to nationalist rhetoric, was selected to succeed Mark Hoban and become the Conservative candidate in the 2015 general election. With Tory majorities of over 40% in December 2019 in both Fareham and Meon Valley, and probably the more favourable part of the latter included in this new seat, it is hard to see Fareham & Waterlooville, at least, standing in the way of her future career path.
There is one attractive area that was in the Meon Valley seat that has found itself in Fareham & Waterlooville. This is the Southwick & Wickham ward. As might be guessed from the fact that it is in the Winchester City council local authority, it is a rare (within the new seat as a whole) Liberal Democrat stronghold, which has favoured them continuously since 2016 and not elected a Tory since 2008, some Independents having being interspersed. Much of the detailed last minute planning for D Day took place at Southwick (this Hampshire one, not the larger town on the Sussex coast), lying as it does just over the downs from Portsmouth, as Southwick House (still in the hands of the Armed Forces) was Eisenhower’s SHAEF headquarters. Despite the local results in Southwick itself, any party other than the Conservatives planning a campaign to liberate the Fareham & Waterlooville seat might well need a similar massive effort – and with less chance of success.
[
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 24.8% 84/575
Owner occupied 75.4% 50/575
Private rented 13.2% 524/575
Social rented 11.4% 457/575
White 95.8% 150/575
Black 0.6% 426/575
Asian 1.9% 406/575
Managerial & professional 36.9% 179/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.4% 324/575
Degree level 29.6% 357/573
No qualifications 12.2% 353/573
Students 4.1% 549/575
General Election 2019: Fareham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Suella Braverman 36,459 63.7 +0.7
Labour Matthew Randall 10,373 18.1 -7.1
Liberal Democrats Matthew Winnington 8,006 14.0 +7.2
Green Nick Lyle 2,412 4.2 +1.9
C Majority 26,086 45.6 +7.8
2019 electorate 78,337
Turnout 57,250 73.1 +0.8
Conservative hold
Swing 3.9 Lab to C
General Election 2019: Meon Valley
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Flick Drummond 35,271 64.3 -1.4
Liberal Democrats Lewis North 11,716 21.4 +10.5
Labour Matthew Bunday 5,644 10.3 -8.0
Green Malcolm Wallace 2,198 4.0 +1.6
C Majority 23,555 43.0 -4.4
2019 electorate 75,737
Turnout 54,829 64.3 -0.6
Conservative hold
Swing 5.9 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Fareham and Waterlooville consists of
53.9% of Fareham
45.7% of Meon Valley
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_317_Fareham%20and%20Waterlooville_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 30819 | 61.2% |
| LD | 9543 | 18.9% |
| Lab | 7951 | 15.8% |
| Green | 2065 | 4.1% |
| | ||
| Majority | 21276 | 42.2% |