Post by andrewp on Oct 6, 2023 13:55:33 GMT
In a previous edition of a profile for the constituency at the most southerly point of Devon, we have noted that the ancient market Town of Totnes on the River Dart, after which a parliamentary constituency has been named for most of the past 700 years, is far from the largest town in the constituency that has taken its name. The largest town, with a population of nearly twice that of Totnes, is the fishing port and seaside town of Brixham, the southernmost of the 3 towns surrounding Torbay.
And now, for the second time in the last 700 years the title of this constituency is changed away from Totnes. Previously from 1983 until 1997 it was named South Hams, after the district council area before reverting back to Totnes in 1997. It could be named Brixham and Totnes, but this time the boundary commission have gone with South Devon. There have, in the recent past, been compass point constituency names in Devon of East, North, South West, West, and West and Torridge, but not South since 1885, and that version of South included Torrington and Tavistock and was closer to the current West. Make no mistake however, that this is the successor constituency to Totnes. The name may have changed but the boundaries are very similar, merely losing about 3500 voters in the west of the constituency in Modbury and Bigbury on Sea to South West Devon.
Bigbury on Sea lies onshore from the tidal Burgh Island, home to the art deco Burgh Island Hotel, the setting for 2 Agatha Christie novels Then There were none and Evil under the Sun.
This is a predominantly older and white constituency, usual indicators for a preference for the Conservative party. It is ranked 11th nationally on the percentage of people aged over 65 with over 30% of people being in that age bracket. It is 97.3% white. It is also in the top 10 constituencies nationwide for the percentage of self-employed people, due to the lack of any largescale industry or public sector.
The majority of this seat is the eastern half of the picturesque South Hams district containing Totnes, the yachting creek towns of Dartmouth and Salcombe, and the inland town of Kingsbridge.
Around about 27000 voters or 38% of the electorate here come from the Torbay unitary authority This is partly some comfortable suburban territory from the inland west side of Paignton in Kings Ash and Collation St Mary wards and partly the town of Brixham. Brixham is slightly different to the rest of the constituency. It has a population of 17000 and is a hilly town set above a working fishing harbour. It is more gritty and more Eurosceptic than the rest of the constituency. In the local elections of 2023, the Conservatives won all of the council seats in Brixham, gaining all of them from Independents, which was the decisive factor in that party gaining overall control of Torbay council, a rare bright spot on a fairly grim night for the party. In general elections Brixham will vote Conservative and will be a trickier place for the Liberal Democrats and would probably have been a decisive factor in the close Conservative/Liberal Democrat contests here between 1997 and 2005. The constituency as a whole is estimated to have voted 54% leave, which given that Totnes in particular is likely to have favoured remain, suggests that Brixham would have voted heavily Leave.
Totnes is the second largest town (population 8000). It’s an ancient market town at the head of the Dart Estuary, with a quaint high street. It has virtually no national chain stores, its own Totnes pound and a sizeable alternative community. This is the weakest part of the seat for the Conservatives. In the 2023 Local elections Totnes split its representation between Lib Dem and Green councillors.
Further to the south are the Yachting centres of Dartmouth and Salcombe. Salcombe is a very affluent small town, albeit suffering from some of the social issues found in parts of Cornwall, where young locals can’t afford housing and second home owners are in abundance, leaving an empty town in the Winter. Salcombe is very Conservative. Dartmouth, is a sophisticated yachting centre up the Dart estuary. It’s a place for messing about in boats and walking along the promenade. Dartmouth does however contain the Townstal area, a council estate up the valley from the town, which helped a very popular Labour councillor top the poll in Dartmouth in the local elections of 2023.
Overall however, this feels like a pretty good bet for the Conservative party. Even in the poor Conservative party showing of 2023, the wards that will make up this constituency elected 14 Conservative councillors, 11 Liberal Democrats, 3 Greens, 1 Labour and 1 Independent.
When the seat was named Totnes again in 1997, sitting South Hams MP Anthony Steen survived a close battle with the Liberal Democrats by 877 votes. He had further close calls in 2001 (3597 majority) and 2005 ( 1947). This is one of those seats in the West Country where the Liberal Democrats never quite made it over the line in an election. Upon Steen’s retirement the Conservatives selected their replacement through an open primary, GP Sarah Wollaston. Wollaston won in 2010 by 5000, and then following the Liberal Democrat collapse increased that to 18000 in 2015, with UKIP second. In 2017 Labour advanced fully 14% in Totnes to take second place and cut Wollaston’s majority to 13477. Following thr Brexit vote, Wollaston was one of 3 Conservative MPs to defect to Change UK in 2019, and then following that party’s demise, defected to the Liberal Democrats in August 2019. Given the Liberal Democrat history in the seat, her candidacy wasn’t in a completely no hope cause here, and she increased the Lib Dem share by 16% to 29%. She still trailed in 12724 votes behind new Conservative candidate special advisor Anthony Mangnall. This seat looks like it has potential for closer contests between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats again in the future.
And now, for the second time in the last 700 years the title of this constituency is changed away from Totnes. Previously from 1983 until 1997 it was named South Hams, after the district council area before reverting back to Totnes in 1997. It could be named Brixham and Totnes, but this time the boundary commission have gone with South Devon. There have, in the recent past, been compass point constituency names in Devon of East, North, South West, West, and West and Torridge, but not South since 1885, and that version of South included Torrington and Tavistock and was closer to the current West. Make no mistake however, that this is the successor constituency to Totnes. The name may have changed but the boundaries are very similar, merely losing about 3500 voters in the west of the constituency in Modbury and Bigbury on Sea to South West Devon.
Bigbury on Sea lies onshore from the tidal Burgh Island, home to the art deco Burgh Island Hotel, the setting for 2 Agatha Christie novels Then There were none and Evil under the Sun.
This is a predominantly older and white constituency, usual indicators for a preference for the Conservative party. It is ranked 11th nationally on the percentage of people aged over 65 with over 30% of people being in that age bracket. It is 97.3% white. It is also in the top 10 constituencies nationwide for the percentage of self-employed people, due to the lack of any largescale industry or public sector.
The majority of this seat is the eastern half of the picturesque South Hams district containing Totnes, the yachting creek towns of Dartmouth and Salcombe, and the inland town of Kingsbridge.
Around about 27000 voters or 38% of the electorate here come from the Torbay unitary authority This is partly some comfortable suburban territory from the inland west side of Paignton in Kings Ash and Collation St Mary wards and partly the town of Brixham. Brixham is slightly different to the rest of the constituency. It has a population of 17000 and is a hilly town set above a working fishing harbour. It is more gritty and more Eurosceptic than the rest of the constituency. In the local elections of 2023, the Conservatives won all of the council seats in Brixham, gaining all of them from Independents, which was the decisive factor in that party gaining overall control of Torbay council, a rare bright spot on a fairly grim night for the party. In general elections Brixham will vote Conservative and will be a trickier place for the Liberal Democrats and would probably have been a decisive factor in the close Conservative/Liberal Democrat contests here between 1997 and 2005. The constituency as a whole is estimated to have voted 54% leave, which given that Totnes in particular is likely to have favoured remain, suggests that Brixham would have voted heavily Leave.
Totnes is the second largest town (population 8000). It’s an ancient market town at the head of the Dart Estuary, with a quaint high street. It has virtually no national chain stores, its own Totnes pound and a sizeable alternative community. This is the weakest part of the seat for the Conservatives. In the 2023 Local elections Totnes split its representation between Lib Dem and Green councillors.
Further to the south are the Yachting centres of Dartmouth and Salcombe. Salcombe is a very affluent small town, albeit suffering from some of the social issues found in parts of Cornwall, where young locals can’t afford housing and second home owners are in abundance, leaving an empty town in the Winter. Salcombe is very Conservative. Dartmouth, is a sophisticated yachting centre up the Dart estuary. It’s a place for messing about in boats and walking along the promenade. Dartmouth does however contain the Townstal area, a council estate up the valley from the town, which helped a very popular Labour councillor top the poll in Dartmouth in the local elections of 2023.
Overall however, this feels like a pretty good bet for the Conservative party. Even in the poor Conservative party showing of 2023, the wards that will make up this constituency elected 14 Conservative councillors, 11 Liberal Democrats, 3 Greens, 1 Labour and 1 Independent.
When the seat was named Totnes again in 1997, sitting South Hams MP Anthony Steen survived a close battle with the Liberal Democrats by 877 votes. He had further close calls in 2001 (3597 majority) and 2005 ( 1947). This is one of those seats in the West Country where the Liberal Democrats never quite made it over the line in an election. Upon Steen’s retirement the Conservatives selected their replacement through an open primary, GP Sarah Wollaston. Wollaston won in 2010 by 5000, and then following the Liberal Democrat collapse increased that to 18000 in 2015, with UKIP second. In 2017 Labour advanced fully 14% in Totnes to take second place and cut Wollaston’s majority to 13477. Following thr Brexit vote, Wollaston was one of 3 Conservative MPs to defect to Change UK in 2019, and then following that party’s demise, defected to the Liberal Democrats in August 2019. Given the Liberal Democrat history in the seat, her candidacy wasn’t in a completely no hope cause here, and she increased the Lib Dem share by 16% to 29%. She still trailed in 12724 votes behind new Conservative candidate special advisor Anthony Mangnall. This seat looks like it has potential for closer contests between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats again in the future.
