2024 SNP wipeout/leadership contest

[ntyuk1707]

Lets say recent by-elections in Girvan & South Carrick (8% swing from SNP to CON) and Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20% swing from SNP to LAB) culminate in the SNP's electoral annihilation or near-annihilation through tactical voting at the 2024 General Election, coming fourth in MPs behind Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

The independence dream seems to be dead 10 years on from the 2014 referendum. 

What are we left with?

A deeply divided SNP with rising calls by Kate Forbes and her allies to cut ties with the Scottish Greens, and countering that Mairi McAllan/Jenny Gilruth standing as the de facto continuity leadership candidate, and Ash Regan yelling some incoherent non-sense in the background. 

This internal debate within the SNP will no doubt threaten the very future of the party. If Kate Forbes were to become leader, the SNP would no doubt face some defections to the Scottish Greens. If Mairi McAllan/Jenny Gilruth were to become leader, would we see a centre-right pro-independence breakaway party? 

The future of the party has not looked this uncertain since a similar wipeout in 1979. Can the future leader regain the confidence of Scottish voters?

Labour meanwhile look set to regain power at Holyrood in 2026 with the support of the Liberal Democrats and possibly or possibly not also requiring support from the Conservatives or Greens/SNP.

[weld]

Oct 6, 2023 3:01:26 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Lets say recent by-elections in Girvan & South Carrick (8% swing from SNP to CON) and Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20% swing from SNP to LAB) culminate in the SNP's electoral annihilation or near-annihilation through tactical voting at the 2024 General Election, coming fourth in MPs behind Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

The independence dream seems to be dead 10 years on from the 2014 referendum. 

What are we left with?

A deeply divided SNP with rising calls by Kate Forbes and her allies to cut ties with the Scottish Greens, and countering that Mairi McAllan/Jenny Gilruth standing as the de facto continuity leadership candidate, and Ash Regan yelling some incoherent non-sense in the background. 

This internal debate within the SNP will no doubt threaten the very future of the party. If Kate Forbes were to become leader, the SNP would no doubt face some defections to the Scottish Greens. If Mairi McAllan/Jenny Gilruth were to become leader, would we see a centre-right pro-independence breakaway party? 

The future of the party has not looked this uncertain since a similar wipeout in 1979. Can the future leader regain the confidence of Scottish voters?

Labour meanwhile look set to regain power at Holyrood in 2026 with the support of the Liberal Democrats and possibly or possibly not also requiring support from the Conservatives or Greens/SNP.

I think a Labour government kills the independence dream (then again, George Robertson said this about devolution). Still, if they couldn't win in 2014 with David Cameron at the helm, when can they? I suspect Yousaf would kick any leadership fight into the long grass (after the next Holyrood elections).

[uthacalthing]

The activist base of a modern political party is not volunteers it is bought and paid for by the taxpayer. It is Councillors and office staff. The Tory party just had a disastrous conference that hundreds of former councilors chose not to attend.

When the SNP lose big time they will also lose their activist base and will see the Labour activist base reinforced. At that point, you need money for paid delivery and polling and the SNP will not have it. The Tories will survive by selling themselves off to big business interests as usual to the chagrin of small business interests.