Post by Robert Waller on Oct 2, 2023 13:38:34 GMT
The boundary changes proposed principally affecting the East Dunbartonshire constituency have metamorphosed through several incarnations since the Scottish Commission started its work in the most recent review.
It is not worth detailing the whole of the labyrinthine process, but one might record that in their initial proposals, the Scottish Boundary Commission suggested that most of it should be included in a new constituency to be named Kelvin North (after the river that more or less flows through the seat). The main differences from East Dunbartonshire would be that Kelvin North would include none of Kirkintilloch (which would be united, within a Kelvin South constituency actually centred on Cumbernauld), and also that it would include the town of Kilsyth, which is in North Lanarkshire district and at present a junior partner in a seat shared with Cumbernauld.
Then in the revised proposals of November 2022, the Commission tweaked the suggested boundaries in this area, losing the Kelvin nomenclature in the process. East Dunbartonshire still disappeared, but its major successor was now to be called Bearsden and Campsie Fells. The difference from Kelvin North was the swap of Kilsyth for the Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead ward of North Lanarkshire council, and of the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Westminster constituency. Kilsyth along with Lenzie and Kirkintilloch would now be placed in an oddly named Kilsyth Hills & Cumbernauld.
In the end the final report of June 2023 produced a third, very different, arrangement, one apparently suggested by a Liberal Democrat (?) councillor – the name of the proposer is not publicly available. Different that is from the previous two iterations, but not so different from the existing East Dunbartonshire. Now the only change would be the transfer of terrain including the villages of Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie, north of Kirkintilloch, from the Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East seat. For reasons that are not entirely clear, instead of keeping the name unchanged, it is to be yet a third different formulation, more widely comprehensible than Kelvin North, less romantic than Bearsden and Campsie Fells: Mid Dunbartonshire.
One of the most dramatic moments on election night in December 2019 came when East Dunbartonshire’s result was declared. It is rare for a party leader to lose their own seat, but this is what happened to Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats. It was particularly ironic as she and her party had commenced the campaign across Britain rather aggressively, with high hopes of unifying the ‘Remain’ vote in opposition to the enactment of the 2016 referendum result. In the end her party recorded a net loss of seats, and she probably should have spent more time in her own constituency, which has been proved to be highly marginal and volatile over recent decades. After all, she did lose to the SNP's Amy Callaghan by only 149 votes.
There are affluent and up-market residential area within Glasgow itself, such as the West End and parts of Pollokshields, but it is also true that many middle class workers in Scotland’s largest city reside just outside the municipal boundaries. Eastwood, or East Renfrewshire, on the south-western edge of the conurbation is a well known example, extensive enough to form a constituency pretty much on its own. But the social, economic and demographic statistics for East Dunbartonshire, essentially the north-western fringe of the Glasgow conurbation, were even more striking. Let us consider a few from the 2011, most recent available, census.
For a start, this was the constituency with the highest proportion of owner occupied housing not only in Scotland but anywhere in the United Kingdom, never mind Scotland: 85.8%. It follows that it had the 649th (or second least) in the private rented sector. The percentage in professional or managerial occupations was also the highest in Scotland (43.8%) and if divided into the sub-category of lower professional, administrative and managerial, one of the top twenty anywhere. East Dunbartonshire is in the top decile for those with degree level educational qualifications – and it is in the top five per cent of seats with regard to employment in the education sector. Perhaps the most unusual pair of indicators is that East Dunbartonshire ranks 8th out of 650 for those classing themselves as being in “very good health”, which is the highest bracket, yet the proportion of those aged over 65 is actually well above average. These characteristics do not usually go together and the interpretation must be that this seat does not suffer from contributing factors to deprivation in general. It can be no coincidence (in addition to the close nature of the result) that this seat recorded the highest turnout of any of the 650 in the United Kingdom in 2019: 80.3%.
East Dunbartonshire is predominantly suburban, with the main communities being Bearsden, Milngavie, Bishopbriggs and part of Kirkintilloch. Probably the best known of these as a middle class and affluent stronghold is Bearsden, which now has a population of around 28,000. Its original growth was very much as a ‘railway suburb’ of Glasgow after its station became operational in 1863, and in the 20th century it became notable for its absence of the council housing that formed such a large part of most Scottish towns. There is some internal variation in Bearsden, but it is really between the mansions of Ledcameroch and Whitehill Roads to the serried ranks of bungalows and other largely detached houses. The contrast between any part of Bearsden and the giant Glasgow peripheral estate of Drumchapel just across the border is too hackneyed to elaborate.
Further out is Milngavie (pronounced approximately Mul-guy, I stand to be corrected), on the same rail line as Bearsden. It does have a social housing estate in its inner western section, built in the 1950s and re-housing some of those bombed out of Clydebank (see West Dunbartonshire entry). However the predominant tone is owner-occupied, with the best residential areas being in the north east of the town, especially around the small Tannoch Loch (which is natural, unlike the larger reservoirs nearby).
Bearsden and Milngavie are north west of Glasgow, but due north of that city’s centre we find Bishopbriggs, as close to Springburn as Bearsden is to Drumchapel. Including neighbourhoods such as Auchinairn, it has a population of around 23,500. Though distinctly down-market from Bearsden and much of Milngavie, it is solidly owner occupied, largely a creation of the 1950s and 1960s; the even more modern estates in the Robroyston area are in Glasgow NE. The final element that needs to be mentioned is Kirkintilloch, more separate from Glasgow and further still north east; but only parts are included in East/Mid Dunbartonshire: its western and southern neighbourhoods, but also its central street of Cowgate, and it town hall, for example. Also included is the small, and relatively affluent town of Lenzie, the setting for the Radio 4 comedy Fags, Mags and Bags.
The present incarnation of East Dunbartonshire as a Westminster seat dates from 2005; a previous seat of that name before 1983 included Cumbernauld New Town but excluded Milngavie. Between 1983 and 2005, though, a genuine predecessor seat existed under the name of Strathkelvin & Bearsden, which was regarded as a Labour-Conservative marginal –it was won by Michael Hirst for the Tories in 1983 then Sam Galbraith and John Lyons for Labour, comfortably only in the two Blair landslides. In 2005 Jo Swinson, then just 25 years old, pulled off one of the best results anywhere as she defeated Lyons, coming from almost nowhere (the Liberal Democrats had just edged into a narrow and very distant second place in the final Strathkelvin & Bearsden election in 2001).
Jo Swinson held East Dunbartonshire for ten years in her first tenure, before becoming a victim of the astonishing SNP sweep in 2015. This means that four different parties had represented this part of the world within 28 years. Nationalism was not as entrenched here as in most other places however. In the 2014 referendum the East Dunbartonshire council area, which was similar but not identical to the constituency, preferred to say No to independence, by over 61% to less than 39% Yes. Therefore, no longer encumbered by the immediate memory of the national coalition government with the Conservatives, Jo Swinson could return in 2017, beating the interloper John Nicolson by over 5,000. But then came the renewed reverse in 2019.
There is some evidence that the SNP are favourites to retain their strength in this area and win the new Mid Dunbartonshire. For one thing, in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021 they easily retained the seats both of Strathkelvin & Bearsden (securing more than twice as many votes as the second placed party, which was the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats back in fourth place) and Clydebank & Milngavie (over 5,000 ahead of Labour).Secondly, the SNP did the best of all parties in the May 2022 East Dunbartonshire council elections. In Milngavie ward the Nationalists took 25% of first preferences, Conservatives 21%, Lib Dems 16.5%, and Labour 13.5%. An Independent and the Green also got over 10% in a very split contest. In Bearsden North, a popular Independent swept 38% of the votes, but the order after him was, like in Milngavie, SNP–Conservative-LD–Labour. Turning to Bearsden South, there was almost a dead heat between the top three candidates; all took between 23.12% and 23.39%; they were in the same familiar order though. Labour trailed a little with 16%.
Bishopbriggs North and Campsie actually includes only a small amount of the former and geographically rather a lot of the latter, which is named after the Campsie Fells, the hills that can be seen from much of the bowl in which the Glasgow conurbation is set, including a number of villages of which the largest are Torrance, Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie – the areas added to Mid Dunbartonshire constituency. In this more rural area, the SNP were again first in May 2022, with 37% first preferences between their candidates, with Labour in second on 20% just ahead of Conservatives (18.5%) and Liberal Democrats (15%). In the much more urban Bishopbriggs South, the order of the parties was exactly the same (37-27-17-12). Finally, in Lenzie & Kirkintilloch South, most of which is in the East Dunbartonshire seat, the order was once again SNP-Labour-Conservative-Liberal Democrat. Jo Swinson clearly had a large personal vote.
Jo Swinson will not be standing next time, and Amy Callaghan will presumably have had up to five years to establish an incumbency factor of her own. However for all the above evidence favouring the SNP, it is also true that the Nationalists have suffered some severe blows since those positive electoral judgments in 2021 and 2022 described above. By late 2023 they were very much in the defensive and appeared to be declining in support. In Mid Dunbartonshire the Liberal Democrats are clearly in the best position to benefit from ‘unionist’ tactical voting against the SNP. The third and final version of the boundary changes is, on the grounds of least disruption, the best by far for them, even though the territory added has a history of preference for the Nationalists. Another close contest, and another change of hand, cannot by any means be ruled out here.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.5% 116/650
Very good health 57.9% 8/650
Owner-occupied 85.8% 1/650
Private rented 5.6% 649/650
Social rented 7.7% 637/650
White 95.0% 319/650
Black 0.2% 496/650
Asian 3.9% 275/650
Sikh 1.1% 1/59
Managerial & professional 43.8%
Lower managerial, administrative and professional 28.1% 18/650
Routine & Semi-routine 15.9%
Routine 5.8% 621/650
Employed in education 13.1% 32/650
Degree level 38.3% 64/650
No qualifications 17.9% 539/650
Students 9.2% 170/650
2022 Census
Details to be added when available
General Election 2019: East Dunbartonshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Amy Callaghan 19,672 37.1 +6.8
Liberal Democrats Jo Swinson 19,523 36.8 -3.8
Conservative Pam Gosal 7,455 14.1 -0.5
Labour Callum McNally 4,839 9.1 -5.4
Green Carolynn Scrimgeour 916 1.7 New
Independent Rosie Dickson 221 0.4 New
UKIP Donald MacKay 208 0.4 New
Scottish Family Party Liam McKechnie 197 0.4 New
SNP Majority 149 0.3
2019 electorate 66,075
Turnout 53,031 80.3 + 1.5
SNP gain from Liberal Democrats
Swing 5.3 LD to SNP
Boundary Changes
Mid Dunbartonshire consists if
100% of East Dunbartonshire
11.1% of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
0.1% of Glasgow NE
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/mid_dunbartonshire.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
It is not worth detailing the whole of the labyrinthine process, but one might record that in their initial proposals, the Scottish Boundary Commission suggested that most of it should be included in a new constituency to be named Kelvin North (after the river that more or less flows through the seat). The main differences from East Dunbartonshire would be that Kelvin North would include none of Kirkintilloch (which would be united, within a Kelvin South constituency actually centred on Cumbernauld), and also that it would include the town of Kilsyth, which is in North Lanarkshire district and at present a junior partner in a seat shared with Cumbernauld.
Then in the revised proposals of November 2022, the Commission tweaked the suggested boundaries in this area, losing the Kelvin nomenclature in the process. East Dunbartonshire still disappeared, but its major successor was now to be called Bearsden and Campsie Fells. The difference from Kelvin North was the swap of Kilsyth for the Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead ward of North Lanarkshire council, and of the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Westminster constituency. Kilsyth along with Lenzie and Kirkintilloch would now be placed in an oddly named Kilsyth Hills & Cumbernauld.
In the end the final report of June 2023 produced a third, very different, arrangement, one apparently suggested by a Liberal Democrat (?) councillor – the name of the proposer is not publicly available. Different that is from the previous two iterations, but not so different from the existing East Dunbartonshire. Now the only change would be the transfer of terrain including the villages of Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie, north of Kirkintilloch, from the Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East seat. For reasons that are not entirely clear, instead of keeping the name unchanged, it is to be yet a third different formulation, more widely comprehensible than Kelvin North, less romantic than Bearsden and Campsie Fells: Mid Dunbartonshire.
One of the most dramatic moments on election night in December 2019 came when East Dunbartonshire’s result was declared. It is rare for a party leader to lose their own seat, but this is what happened to Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats. It was particularly ironic as she and her party had commenced the campaign across Britain rather aggressively, with high hopes of unifying the ‘Remain’ vote in opposition to the enactment of the 2016 referendum result. In the end her party recorded a net loss of seats, and she probably should have spent more time in her own constituency, which has been proved to be highly marginal and volatile over recent decades. After all, she did lose to the SNP's Amy Callaghan by only 149 votes.
There are affluent and up-market residential area within Glasgow itself, such as the West End and parts of Pollokshields, but it is also true that many middle class workers in Scotland’s largest city reside just outside the municipal boundaries. Eastwood, or East Renfrewshire, on the south-western edge of the conurbation is a well known example, extensive enough to form a constituency pretty much on its own. But the social, economic and demographic statistics for East Dunbartonshire, essentially the north-western fringe of the Glasgow conurbation, were even more striking. Let us consider a few from the 2011, most recent available, census.
For a start, this was the constituency with the highest proportion of owner occupied housing not only in Scotland but anywhere in the United Kingdom, never mind Scotland: 85.8%. It follows that it had the 649th (or second least) in the private rented sector. The percentage in professional or managerial occupations was also the highest in Scotland (43.8%) and if divided into the sub-category of lower professional, administrative and managerial, one of the top twenty anywhere. East Dunbartonshire is in the top decile for those with degree level educational qualifications – and it is in the top five per cent of seats with regard to employment in the education sector. Perhaps the most unusual pair of indicators is that East Dunbartonshire ranks 8th out of 650 for those classing themselves as being in “very good health”, which is the highest bracket, yet the proportion of those aged over 65 is actually well above average. These characteristics do not usually go together and the interpretation must be that this seat does not suffer from contributing factors to deprivation in general. It can be no coincidence (in addition to the close nature of the result) that this seat recorded the highest turnout of any of the 650 in the United Kingdom in 2019: 80.3%.
East Dunbartonshire is predominantly suburban, with the main communities being Bearsden, Milngavie, Bishopbriggs and part of Kirkintilloch. Probably the best known of these as a middle class and affluent stronghold is Bearsden, which now has a population of around 28,000. Its original growth was very much as a ‘railway suburb’ of Glasgow after its station became operational in 1863, and in the 20th century it became notable for its absence of the council housing that formed such a large part of most Scottish towns. There is some internal variation in Bearsden, but it is really between the mansions of Ledcameroch and Whitehill Roads to the serried ranks of bungalows and other largely detached houses. The contrast between any part of Bearsden and the giant Glasgow peripheral estate of Drumchapel just across the border is too hackneyed to elaborate.
Further out is Milngavie (pronounced approximately Mul-guy, I stand to be corrected), on the same rail line as Bearsden. It does have a social housing estate in its inner western section, built in the 1950s and re-housing some of those bombed out of Clydebank (see West Dunbartonshire entry). However the predominant tone is owner-occupied, with the best residential areas being in the north east of the town, especially around the small Tannoch Loch (which is natural, unlike the larger reservoirs nearby).
Bearsden and Milngavie are north west of Glasgow, but due north of that city’s centre we find Bishopbriggs, as close to Springburn as Bearsden is to Drumchapel. Including neighbourhoods such as Auchinairn, it has a population of around 23,500. Though distinctly down-market from Bearsden and much of Milngavie, it is solidly owner occupied, largely a creation of the 1950s and 1960s; the even more modern estates in the Robroyston area are in Glasgow NE. The final element that needs to be mentioned is Kirkintilloch, more separate from Glasgow and further still north east; but only parts are included in East/Mid Dunbartonshire: its western and southern neighbourhoods, but also its central street of Cowgate, and it town hall, for example. Also included is the small, and relatively affluent town of Lenzie, the setting for the Radio 4 comedy Fags, Mags and Bags.
The present incarnation of East Dunbartonshire as a Westminster seat dates from 2005; a previous seat of that name before 1983 included Cumbernauld New Town but excluded Milngavie. Between 1983 and 2005, though, a genuine predecessor seat existed under the name of Strathkelvin & Bearsden, which was regarded as a Labour-Conservative marginal –it was won by Michael Hirst for the Tories in 1983 then Sam Galbraith and John Lyons for Labour, comfortably only in the two Blair landslides. In 2005 Jo Swinson, then just 25 years old, pulled off one of the best results anywhere as she defeated Lyons, coming from almost nowhere (the Liberal Democrats had just edged into a narrow and very distant second place in the final Strathkelvin & Bearsden election in 2001).
Jo Swinson held East Dunbartonshire for ten years in her first tenure, before becoming a victim of the astonishing SNP sweep in 2015. This means that four different parties had represented this part of the world within 28 years. Nationalism was not as entrenched here as in most other places however. In the 2014 referendum the East Dunbartonshire council area, which was similar but not identical to the constituency, preferred to say No to independence, by over 61% to less than 39% Yes. Therefore, no longer encumbered by the immediate memory of the national coalition government with the Conservatives, Jo Swinson could return in 2017, beating the interloper John Nicolson by over 5,000. But then came the renewed reverse in 2019.
There is some evidence that the SNP are favourites to retain their strength in this area and win the new Mid Dunbartonshire. For one thing, in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021 they easily retained the seats both of Strathkelvin & Bearsden (securing more than twice as many votes as the second placed party, which was the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats back in fourth place) and Clydebank & Milngavie (over 5,000 ahead of Labour).Secondly, the SNP did the best of all parties in the May 2022 East Dunbartonshire council elections. In Milngavie ward the Nationalists took 25% of first preferences, Conservatives 21%, Lib Dems 16.5%, and Labour 13.5%. An Independent and the Green also got over 10% in a very split contest. In Bearsden North, a popular Independent swept 38% of the votes, but the order after him was, like in Milngavie, SNP–Conservative-LD–Labour. Turning to Bearsden South, there was almost a dead heat between the top three candidates; all took between 23.12% and 23.39%; they were in the same familiar order though. Labour trailed a little with 16%.
Bishopbriggs North and Campsie actually includes only a small amount of the former and geographically rather a lot of the latter, which is named after the Campsie Fells, the hills that can be seen from much of the bowl in which the Glasgow conurbation is set, including a number of villages of which the largest are Torrance, Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie – the areas added to Mid Dunbartonshire constituency. In this more rural area, the SNP were again first in May 2022, with 37% first preferences between their candidates, with Labour in second on 20% just ahead of Conservatives (18.5%) and Liberal Democrats (15%). In the much more urban Bishopbriggs South, the order of the parties was exactly the same (37-27-17-12). Finally, in Lenzie & Kirkintilloch South, most of which is in the East Dunbartonshire seat, the order was once again SNP-Labour-Conservative-Liberal Democrat. Jo Swinson clearly had a large personal vote.
Jo Swinson will not be standing next time, and Amy Callaghan will presumably have had up to five years to establish an incumbency factor of her own. However for all the above evidence favouring the SNP, it is also true that the Nationalists have suffered some severe blows since those positive electoral judgments in 2021 and 2022 described above. By late 2023 they were very much in the defensive and appeared to be declining in support. In Mid Dunbartonshire the Liberal Democrats are clearly in the best position to benefit from ‘unionist’ tactical voting against the SNP. The third and final version of the boundary changes is, on the grounds of least disruption, the best by far for them, even though the territory added has a history of preference for the Nationalists. Another close contest, and another change of hand, cannot by any means be ruled out here.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.5% 116/650
Very good health 57.9% 8/650
Owner-occupied 85.8% 1/650
Private rented 5.6% 649/650
Social rented 7.7% 637/650
White 95.0% 319/650
Black 0.2% 496/650
Asian 3.9% 275/650
Sikh 1.1% 1/59
Managerial & professional 43.8%
Lower managerial, administrative and professional 28.1% 18/650
Routine & Semi-routine 15.9%
Routine 5.8% 621/650
Employed in education 13.1% 32/650
Degree level 38.3% 64/650
No qualifications 17.9% 539/650
Students 9.2% 170/650
2022 Census
Details to be added when available
General Election 2019: East Dunbartonshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Amy Callaghan 19,672 37.1 +6.8
Liberal Democrats Jo Swinson 19,523 36.8 -3.8
Conservative Pam Gosal 7,455 14.1 -0.5
Labour Callum McNally 4,839 9.1 -5.4
Green Carolynn Scrimgeour 916 1.7 New
Independent Rosie Dickson 221 0.4 New
UKIP Donald MacKay 208 0.4 New
Scottish Family Party Liam McKechnie 197 0.4 New
SNP Majority 149 0.3
2019 electorate 66,075
Turnout 53,031 80.3 + 1.5
SNP gain from Liberal Democrats
Swing 5.3 LD to SNP
Boundary Changes
Mid Dunbartonshire consists if
100% of East Dunbartonshire
11.1% of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
0.1% of Glasgow NE
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/mid_dunbartonshire.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 22179 | 37.9% |
| LD | 20193 | 34.5% |
| Con | 9118 | 15.6% |
| Lab | 5520 | 9.4% |
| Green | 916 | 1.6% |
| Oths | 626 | 1.1% |
| Majority | 1986 | 3.4% |
