Post by andrewp on Oct 1, 2023 10:12:29 GMT
One of the relatively few contests between two sitting members of parliament at the next election looks set to occur here in the most south easterly constitiency in Devon, Honiton and Sidmouth.
In the blue corner will be Simon Jupp, the Conservative MP for East Devon who will be following the minority of his constituents, about 23000, from the East Devon coast centred around the towns of Sidmouth and Ottery St Mary, into this seat.
In the yellow corner will be Richard Foord, Liberal Democrat winner of the 2022 Tiverton and Honiton by election who will be following the majority of his constituents, about 50000 or62% of his current constituency- effectively the Honiton half- containing the titular Town and also the smaller towns of Seaton, Axminster and Cullompton into this seat.
This newly configured constituency is a more linear successor to the pre 1997 Honiton constituency, with the main changes from that seat to this one being the exclusion this time of the 2 most westerly seaside towns of Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton and the inclusion of more inland territory around Ottery St Mary and Cullompton. Cullompton is a small market town situated North of Exeter and south of Tiverton with quite poor road links across to Honiton and the core of this constituency and isn’t an ideal fit here.
This is generally an affluent seat of rolling countryside meandering down to the sea cliffs and bays. The coastline in this constituency is a series of steep red stone cliffs giving way to mostly pebbly beaches, thus making this a particularly challenging section of the South West Coastal path with several steep ascents and descents.
Inland Honiton and coastal Sidmouth are the largest towns in this seat, and are of roughly equal size, both with a population of about 12000. The other towns are Seaton (8.500), Cullompton (7,500) and Axminster (7000). This is a seat of small country and seaside towns and not perhaps the natural setting for what looks like it might be one of the more vigorously fought contests at the next election.
Honiton is 17 miles East of Exeter and is known for lace making, which was introduced by Flemish immigrants in the Elizabethan era. It became known as Honiton lace. Honiton has a mile long wide main street, reminiscent of a French Town and a number of popular markets.
Sidmouth is a lovely genteel coastal town with a pebbly beach and a beautiful cricket ground on the sea front, the sea being within a six hit distance. The 2018 estimate was that 43% of people in Sidmouth are over 65, which contributes to this constituency being in the top 10 for percentage of the population aged 65 or over with 31.8% falling within that category. Seaton is not quite so genteel as Sidmouth and is slightly more down at heel.
All of this territory has a recent habit of electing Independents to local councils. At the 2023 local elections the Liberal Democrats, invigorated no doubt by their parliamentary by election success, did very well in the elections to Mid Devon council and took control of that council. In the East Devon council wards that form the majority of the territory moving into this seat they didn’t do quite so well. The wards that make up the new constituency elected 13 Independent councillors, 11 Conservatives, 11 Liberal Democrats, 2 Labour and 1 Liberal.
This is very conservative and traditionally Conservative territory. However, there are 2 different flies in the Conservative ointment here. 2 thirds of the electorate come from the Tiverton and Honiton constituency, where in 2022 the sitting Conservative MP Neil Parish resigned after having been revealed to be looking at porn in the house of Commons. At a by election in June 2022, Liberal Democrat Richard Foord overturned Parish’ 24,000 majority and won by 6000 votes.
The other third of the territory comes from Devon East. Until the last few elections, this would be categorised as a safeish Conservative seat with a significant Lib Dem minority. From the creation of Devon East in 1997, until 2010, the Conservatives consistently won by comfortable but not overwhelming majorities around the 8-9,000 mark. The perceived laziness of the Conservative MP and a complacent Conservative run council led to an Independent movement gaining serious traction here. In 2015, Claire Wright, a PR officer in the NHS stood and gathered a very creditable 13000 votes and 2nd place. Wright’s politics are very much of the centre left, but she has gained some momentum as a very hard working activist against an unpopular local council. Her base is in Ottery St Mary which is now in this constituency. In 2013, she was elected to the County Council, getting 74% of the vote in the Ottery St Mary rural division, and she was re-elected in 2017 with 75%. In the 2017 general election, she built further, amassing 21000 votes and cutting Sir Hugo’s majority to 8,000. It’s fair to say that a lot of her votes come from Lib Dems, who themselves got a paltry 2.4%. In 2019, Hugo Swire retired, which probably helped arrest some of Wright’s momentum and Simon Jupp defeated her by 7000.
Wright has said that she will not stand for parliament again and it’s unclear whether a like minded colleague will stand as an Independent or whether they will overtly or covertly support Richard Foord.
In the blue corner will be Simon Jupp, the Conservative MP for East Devon who will be following the minority of his constituents, about 23000, from the East Devon coast centred around the towns of Sidmouth and Ottery St Mary, into this seat.
In the yellow corner will be Richard Foord, Liberal Democrat winner of the 2022 Tiverton and Honiton by election who will be following the majority of his constituents, about 50000 or62% of his current constituency- effectively the Honiton half- containing the titular Town and also the smaller towns of Seaton, Axminster and Cullompton into this seat.
This newly configured constituency is a more linear successor to the pre 1997 Honiton constituency, with the main changes from that seat to this one being the exclusion this time of the 2 most westerly seaside towns of Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton and the inclusion of more inland territory around Ottery St Mary and Cullompton. Cullompton is a small market town situated North of Exeter and south of Tiverton with quite poor road links across to Honiton and the core of this constituency and isn’t an ideal fit here.
This is generally an affluent seat of rolling countryside meandering down to the sea cliffs and bays. The coastline in this constituency is a series of steep red stone cliffs giving way to mostly pebbly beaches, thus making this a particularly challenging section of the South West Coastal path with several steep ascents and descents.
Inland Honiton and coastal Sidmouth are the largest towns in this seat, and are of roughly equal size, both with a population of about 12000. The other towns are Seaton (8.500), Cullompton (7,500) and Axminster (7000). This is a seat of small country and seaside towns and not perhaps the natural setting for what looks like it might be one of the more vigorously fought contests at the next election.
Honiton is 17 miles East of Exeter and is known for lace making, which was introduced by Flemish immigrants in the Elizabethan era. It became known as Honiton lace. Honiton has a mile long wide main street, reminiscent of a French Town and a number of popular markets.
Sidmouth is a lovely genteel coastal town with a pebbly beach and a beautiful cricket ground on the sea front, the sea being within a six hit distance. The 2018 estimate was that 43% of people in Sidmouth are over 65, which contributes to this constituency being in the top 10 for percentage of the population aged 65 or over with 31.8% falling within that category. Seaton is not quite so genteel as Sidmouth and is slightly more down at heel.
All of this territory has a recent habit of electing Independents to local councils. At the 2023 local elections the Liberal Democrats, invigorated no doubt by their parliamentary by election success, did very well in the elections to Mid Devon council and took control of that council. In the East Devon council wards that form the majority of the territory moving into this seat they didn’t do quite so well. The wards that make up the new constituency elected 13 Independent councillors, 11 Conservatives, 11 Liberal Democrats, 2 Labour and 1 Liberal.
This is very conservative and traditionally Conservative territory. However, there are 2 different flies in the Conservative ointment here. 2 thirds of the electorate come from the Tiverton and Honiton constituency, where in 2022 the sitting Conservative MP Neil Parish resigned after having been revealed to be looking at porn in the house of Commons. At a by election in June 2022, Liberal Democrat Richard Foord overturned Parish’ 24,000 majority and won by 6000 votes.
The other third of the territory comes from Devon East. Until the last few elections, this would be categorised as a safeish Conservative seat with a significant Lib Dem minority. From the creation of Devon East in 1997, until 2010, the Conservatives consistently won by comfortable but not overwhelming majorities around the 8-9,000 mark. The perceived laziness of the Conservative MP and a complacent Conservative run council led to an Independent movement gaining serious traction here. In 2015, Claire Wright, a PR officer in the NHS stood and gathered a very creditable 13000 votes and 2nd place. Wright’s politics are very much of the centre left, but she has gained some momentum as a very hard working activist against an unpopular local council. Her base is in Ottery St Mary which is now in this constituency. In 2013, she was elected to the County Council, getting 74% of the vote in the Ottery St Mary rural division, and she was re-elected in 2017 with 75%. In the 2017 general election, she built further, amassing 21000 votes and cutting Sir Hugo’s majority to 8,000. It’s fair to say that a lot of her votes come from Lib Dems, who themselves got a paltry 2.4%. In 2019, Hugo Swire retired, which probably helped arrest some of Wright’s momentum and Simon Jupp defeated her by 7000.
Wright has said that she will not stand for parliament again and it’s unclear whether a like minded colleague will stand as an Independent or whether they will overtly or covertly support Richard Foord.
