Post by Robert Waller on Sept 29, 2023 21:17:09 GMT
There are major boundary changes in south Hampshire. Although not abolished (Meon Valley) or an entirely newly created seat (Hamble Valley) or partially renamed (like Fareham & Waterlooville), the Eastleigh constituency is indeed heavily altered. No less than 42.5% of its electorate is transferred to the new Hamble Valley. This consists largely of terrain in the southern part of the constituency: the large mainly postwar Southampton exurb of Hedge End (over 16,000 voters in its two wards) and, approaching closer to Southampton Water, Botley, Bursledon, Hamble and Netley. This section had been marked for removal from the Eastleigh seat before; indeed in 2011 the aborted boundary review for 600 seats initially suggested a constituency called Hedge End and Hamble.
In exchange, Eastleigh gains some 22% of the Winchester seat and 6.9% of Romsey & Southampton North. The former is centred on Chandler's Ford and Hiltingbury, and the latter on Valley Park, all expanded or modern communities north west of Eastleigh town, especially Valley Park, where there was no housing west of Knightwood Road before 1994. Overall the changes will hurt the Conservatives and help the Liberal Democrats. Do not be fooled by the 15,000 Tory majority in Eastleigh in December 2019. Eastleigh has been, and in the future will need to be treated as, a marginal constituency.
Eastleigh is an ordinary looking constituency with an interesting and unusual electoral history. This Hampshire seat up to now has curled round the north and east of the city of Southampton in a kidney shape, including notable ‘Southampton’ landmarks such as the airport and the international cricket ground, reaching Southampton Water at Hamble, which is regarded as the main location of the fictional TV series Howards' Way. The Eastleigh parliamentary seat too has seen more than its fair share of drama in the last quarter of a century or so.
This started with a tragedy, when in 1994 the Conservative MP was found dead at home, in the words of Wikipedia “apparently self-strangled during an act of autoerotic asphyxiation”. The resulting byelection was a gain for the Liberal Democrat candidate David Chidgey, though this probably had less to do with the circumstances than with the steady build up of Alliance then Lib Dem strength on Eastleigh Borough Council since the early 1980s: they had become the largest party in 1986, and have never been overtaken since – indeed the council has been under Liberal Democrat overall control continuously since 1995. This remarkable municipal performance helps to explain how the Liberal Democrats twice managed to retain the parliamentary seat after their MP retired, which is often not as easy a task as winning it in a byelection in the first place.
David Chidgey successfully defended this seat twice, winning narrowly in 1997 then increasing his lead to over 3,000 in 2001, mainly by squeezing the Labour share; Labour had at times been competitive in Eastleigh, losing in their strong year of 1966 by a majority of only 701, and actually finishing second in the 1994 byelection. Chidgey retired blamelessly in 2005, but handed Eastleigh over to Chris Huhne who beat Conor Burns (Now MP for Bournemouth West) by 568 votes. Rather like Chidgey, Huhne also strengthened his position in a subsequent contest, in his case in 2010; but then scandal struck, as he went through a long drawn out legal procedure which ended with conviction for handing over penalty points for a driving offence to his (then) wife, and a short prison term.
His resignation caused another byelection, this one at the end of February 2013, and it really must be regarded as a triumph for the Liberal Democrat strength in this neck of the woods that Mike Thornton held the seat at the head of a field of 14 candidates. It might also be pointed out, though, that UKIP finished second and the Conservatives third. Between them they polled over half the vote, compared with Thornton’s 32%. While it is certainly not true that UKIP vote came overwhelmingly from the Conservatives, they would not have eaten so much into the pro-EU Liberal Democrat share. In 2015, along with so many other members of the junior coalition party, Thornton went down decisively, the new Conservative candidate Mims Davies winning by over 9,000. In 2017 she increased her lead over Thornton to 14,000; and despite some controversy over Mims Davies’s switch to Mid Sussex in 2019, the Tory lead was further extended.
One cannot write off the Liberal Democrats in Eastleigh as they have such a dominant position in local government (as well as the resilience of their medium term parliamentary history here). After the May 2023 elections the councillor score on the borough council read Liberal Democrat 35, Independent 3 (all in Bishopstoke ward at the north end of the seat), Conservative 1, Others 0. Most of the 12 LD ward victories in 2023 were overwhelming. The Tories only got within 20% of them in one ward, Fair Oak & Horton Heath. This dominance included the two wards in this council added to Eastleigh in the boundary changes, Hiltingbury and Chandlers Ford, in each which they beat the Conservatives by a margin of 26%. Valley Park is in Test Valley Borough, but that was won even more emphatically by the Lib Dems – by 81% to 19% Tory in a straight fight. In fact, it was Labour who were in second place in May 2023 in two of the three wards in Eastleigh town.
That eponymous town, Eastleigh, was developed relatively early as 19th century railway town (London & South Eastern) and the legacy can still be seen in the Victorian grid pattern of terraced housing in what is now Eastleigh Central ward. Even in the 2021 census, there was over 32% social rented housing in Eastleigh West MSOA, the only concentration of that tenure sector anywhere in the constituency. The town is also much less solidly middle class in occupational terms than the rest of the division named after it: both Eastleigh Central and West had around 30% in routine and semi-routine jobs in 2021 compared with 21% overall (on new boundaries).When the Eastleigh Borough Council as at present constituted was first formed in 1973, Labour won the first contests in all four Eastleigh wards as drawn at the time, although thereafter only Eastleigh South reliably remained in their column, until it was first gained by the Liberal Democrats in 1994. Every contest in any Eastleigh ward has been won by the Liberal Democrats since the last Labour win in South in 2007.
However Eastleigh itself has accounted for a smaller and smaller minority in this seat, with the growth of the much more modern Southampton suburbs such as Hedge End and West End, which have expanded especially because of their proximity to the M27 Hedge End, for example, hardly existed in the 1950s but surpassed a population of 20,000 in the 2000s decade. West End has also grown from a hamlet to over 10,000 souls. The removal of these to Hamble Valley moves the centre of gravity of the Eastleigh seat northwards and it will be somewhat more centred on Eastleigh town, though the suburban and modern developments will still outweigh the old railway hub. Overall the new Eastleigh constituency has less than 10% of all ethnic minorities combined and is over 73% owner occupied. It ranked in the top 25 for proportion in employment at the time of the most recent Census figures.
Clearly the battle here will continue to be between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. With the borough of Eastleigh still essentially the core of the seat, that local election dominance is likely to continue to give the Liberal Democrats reason for hope and even confidence, together with their run of six parliamentary victories including the two byelections. The sitting MP for Eastleigh, Paul Holmes, opted to see the candidature for Hamble Valley, and was selected – so there is no incumbent here. Adding up the May 2023 local elections in Eastleigh under new boundaries reveals 51% for the Liberal Democrats compared with 25% for the Conservatives and 11% for Labour. Yes, municipal contests are not general elections. But at the very least it seems valid to expect a major swing in Eastleigh against the present national government.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.8% 259/575
Owner occupied 73.6% 88/575
Private rented 13.8% 491/575
Social rented 12.6% 406/575
White 90.8% 281/575
Black 1.0% 323/575
Asian 5.0% 266/575
Managerial & professional 38.8% 135/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.7% 354/575
Degree level 34.2% 227/575
No qualifications 13.7% 483/575
Students 4.8% 443/575
General election 2019: Eastleigh
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Paul Holmes 32,690 55.4 +5.0
Liberal Democrats Lynda Murphy 17,083 29.0 +3.3
Labour Sam Jordan 7,559 12.8 -7.2
Green Ron Meldrum 1,639 2.8 +1.5
C Majority 15,607 26.4 +1.7
Turnout 58,971 70.3 -0.2
Conservative hold Swing +0.9 from LD to C
Boundary Changes
Eastleigh consists of
57.5% of Eastleigh
22.4% of Winchester
6.9% of Romsey & Southampton North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_314_Eastleigh_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result - Eastleigh (Rallings & Thrasher)
In exchange, Eastleigh gains some 22% of the Winchester seat and 6.9% of Romsey & Southampton North. The former is centred on Chandler's Ford and Hiltingbury, and the latter on Valley Park, all expanded or modern communities north west of Eastleigh town, especially Valley Park, where there was no housing west of Knightwood Road before 1994. Overall the changes will hurt the Conservatives and help the Liberal Democrats. Do not be fooled by the 15,000 Tory majority in Eastleigh in December 2019. Eastleigh has been, and in the future will need to be treated as, a marginal constituency.
Eastleigh is an ordinary looking constituency with an interesting and unusual electoral history. This Hampshire seat up to now has curled round the north and east of the city of Southampton in a kidney shape, including notable ‘Southampton’ landmarks such as the airport and the international cricket ground, reaching Southampton Water at Hamble, which is regarded as the main location of the fictional TV series Howards' Way. The Eastleigh parliamentary seat too has seen more than its fair share of drama in the last quarter of a century or so.
This started with a tragedy, when in 1994 the Conservative MP was found dead at home, in the words of Wikipedia “apparently self-strangled during an act of autoerotic asphyxiation”. The resulting byelection was a gain for the Liberal Democrat candidate David Chidgey, though this probably had less to do with the circumstances than with the steady build up of Alliance then Lib Dem strength on Eastleigh Borough Council since the early 1980s: they had become the largest party in 1986, and have never been overtaken since – indeed the council has been under Liberal Democrat overall control continuously since 1995. This remarkable municipal performance helps to explain how the Liberal Democrats twice managed to retain the parliamentary seat after their MP retired, which is often not as easy a task as winning it in a byelection in the first place.
David Chidgey successfully defended this seat twice, winning narrowly in 1997 then increasing his lead to over 3,000 in 2001, mainly by squeezing the Labour share; Labour had at times been competitive in Eastleigh, losing in their strong year of 1966 by a majority of only 701, and actually finishing second in the 1994 byelection. Chidgey retired blamelessly in 2005, but handed Eastleigh over to Chris Huhne who beat Conor Burns (Now MP for Bournemouth West) by 568 votes. Rather like Chidgey, Huhne also strengthened his position in a subsequent contest, in his case in 2010; but then scandal struck, as he went through a long drawn out legal procedure which ended with conviction for handing over penalty points for a driving offence to his (then) wife, and a short prison term.
His resignation caused another byelection, this one at the end of February 2013, and it really must be regarded as a triumph for the Liberal Democrat strength in this neck of the woods that Mike Thornton held the seat at the head of a field of 14 candidates. It might also be pointed out, though, that UKIP finished second and the Conservatives third. Between them they polled over half the vote, compared with Thornton’s 32%. While it is certainly not true that UKIP vote came overwhelmingly from the Conservatives, they would not have eaten so much into the pro-EU Liberal Democrat share. In 2015, along with so many other members of the junior coalition party, Thornton went down decisively, the new Conservative candidate Mims Davies winning by over 9,000. In 2017 she increased her lead over Thornton to 14,000; and despite some controversy over Mims Davies’s switch to Mid Sussex in 2019, the Tory lead was further extended.
One cannot write off the Liberal Democrats in Eastleigh as they have such a dominant position in local government (as well as the resilience of their medium term parliamentary history here). After the May 2023 elections the councillor score on the borough council read Liberal Democrat 35, Independent 3 (all in Bishopstoke ward at the north end of the seat), Conservative 1, Others 0. Most of the 12 LD ward victories in 2023 were overwhelming. The Tories only got within 20% of them in one ward, Fair Oak & Horton Heath. This dominance included the two wards in this council added to Eastleigh in the boundary changes, Hiltingbury and Chandlers Ford, in each which they beat the Conservatives by a margin of 26%. Valley Park is in Test Valley Borough, but that was won even more emphatically by the Lib Dems – by 81% to 19% Tory in a straight fight. In fact, it was Labour who were in second place in May 2023 in two of the three wards in Eastleigh town.
That eponymous town, Eastleigh, was developed relatively early as 19th century railway town (London & South Eastern) and the legacy can still be seen in the Victorian grid pattern of terraced housing in what is now Eastleigh Central ward. Even in the 2021 census, there was over 32% social rented housing in Eastleigh West MSOA, the only concentration of that tenure sector anywhere in the constituency. The town is also much less solidly middle class in occupational terms than the rest of the division named after it: both Eastleigh Central and West had around 30% in routine and semi-routine jobs in 2021 compared with 21% overall (on new boundaries).When the Eastleigh Borough Council as at present constituted was first formed in 1973, Labour won the first contests in all four Eastleigh wards as drawn at the time, although thereafter only Eastleigh South reliably remained in their column, until it was first gained by the Liberal Democrats in 1994. Every contest in any Eastleigh ward has been won by the Liberal Democrats since the last Labour win in South in 2007.
However Eastleigh itself has accounted for a smaller and smaller minority in this seat, with the growth of the much more modern Southampton suburbs such as Hedge End and West End, which have expanded especially because of their proximity to the M27 Hedge End, for example, hardly existed in the 1950s but surpassed a population of 20,000 in the 2000s decade. West End has also grown from a hamlet to over 10,000 souls. The removal of these to Hamble Valley moves the centre of gravity of the Eastleigh seat northwards and it will be somewhat more centred on Eastleigh town, though the suburban and modern developments will still outweigh the old railway hub. Overall the new Eastleigh constituency has less than 10% of all ethnic minorities combined and is over 73% owner occupied. It ranked in the top 25 for proportion in employment at the time of the most recent Census figures.
Clearly the battle here will continue to be between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. With the borough of Eastleigh still essentially the core of the seat, that local election dominance is likely to continue to give the Liberal Democrats reason for hope and even confidence, together with their run of six parliamentary victories including the two byelections. The sitting MP for Eastleigh, Paul Holmes, opted to see the candidature for Hamble Valley, and was selected – so there is no incumbent here. Adding up the May 2023 local elections in Eastleigh under new boundaries reveals 51% for the Liberal Democrats compared with 25% for the Conservatives and 11% for Labour. Yes, municipal contests are not general elections. But at the very least it seems valid to expect a major swing in Eastleigh against the present national government.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.8% 259/575
Owner occupied 73.6% 88/575
Private rented 13.8% 491/575
Social rented 12.6% 406/575
White 90.8% 281/575
Black 1.0% 323/575
Asian 5.0% 266/575
Managerial & professional 38.8% 135/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.7% 354/575
Degree level 34.2% 227/575
No qualifications 13.7% 483/575
Students 4.8% 443/575
General election 2019: Eastleigh
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Paul Holmes 32,690 55.4 +5.0
Liberal Democrats Lynda Murphy 17,083 29.0 +3.3
Labour Sam Jordan 7,559 12.8 -7.2
Green Ron Meldrum 1,639 2.8 +1.5
C Majority 15,607 26.4 +1.7
Turnout 58,971 70.3 -0.2
Conservative hold Swing +0.9 from LD to C
Boundary Changes
Eastleigh consists of
57.5% of Eastleigh
22.4% of Winchester
6.9% of Romsey & Southampton North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_314_Eastleigh_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result - Eastleigh (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 25711 | 52.3% |
| LD | 17070 | 34.1% |
| Lab | 5778 | 11.6% |
| Grn | 1013 | 1.8% |
| Majority | 8614 | 17.4% |