2020 London Mayoral Election

[weld]

What if the London mayoral election wasn't delayed and went ahead in 2020? This scenario presumes no Covid, or at the very least, Covid happens later, or even a mayoral election with all postal votes or at least a greater emphasis on them. There were some polls showing the independent candidate Rory Stewart beating Shaun Bailey. It's far-fetched, but could he have reached the final two and actually won? I doubt it, but it wasn't impossible despite his support stuck at around 13% in most polls. Suppose Rory Stewart over performs and gets through to the runoff. For full disclosure I was a Stewart supporter then, but he did pretty decently in some polls all told. In our timeline, Khan beat Bailey by around 11%, a fairly static hold compared to his 2016 victory. Of course, with the reversion to FPTP, a scenario like the above is now impossible. Of course, the quick witted of you will probably tell me it was impossible then too! 

I suspect on the first round, Stewart's strongest areas would've been Kensington, Chelsea, the City of London, Westminster South, Hampstead, Richmond etc. Places with a fair few Tories in them that voted Remain. I suspect Stewart would've stolen the Lib Dems thunder as it were, and would've needed to do so to reach the second round. In a 61% Remain city, Stewart would've fished in several ponds. Still Khan could try painting him as a wolf in sheep's clothing since Stewart backed the austerity agenda. 

If I had to guess Stewart's best wards: Marylebone, Brompton and Hans Town, Knightsbridge & Belgravia, Frognal & Fitzjohns, Muswell Hill, Village (Merton).

[greenhert]

Even against a strong moderate like Rory Stewart, Sadiq Khan would have won, albeit narrowly. The core Labour vote in Greater London is very strong and gives Labour the advantage ab ovo, and only with a controversial incumbent a la Ken Livingstone in 2008 (and 2012 when he tried to regain the Mayoralty and failed) is Labour likely to lose a Mayor of London election. Many Liberal Democrat voters would still not have voted for Mr Stewart, even tactically.

[mattbewilson]

Sept 29, 2023 17:21:32 GMT greenhert said:

Even against a strong moderate like Rory Stewart, Sadiq Khan would have won, albeit narrowly. The core Labour vote in Greater London is very strong and gives Labour the advantage ab ovo, and only with a controversial incumbent a la Ken Livingstone in 2008 (and 2012 when he tried to regain the Mayoralty and failed) is Labour likely to lose a Mayor of London election. Many Liberal Democrat voters would still not have voted for Mr Stewart, even tactically.

there was polling in 2016 that showed Boris winning had he stood for a third term.

[stb12]

Sept 29, 2023 17:39:11 GMT mattbewilson said:

Sept 29, 2023 17:21:32 GMT greenhert said:

Even against a strong moderate like Rory Stewart, Sadiq Khan would have won, albeit narrowly. The core Labour vote in Greater London is very strong and gives Labour the advantage ab ovo, and only with a controversial incumbent a la Ken Livingstone in 2008 (and 2012 when he tried to regain the Mayoralty and failed) is Labour likely to lose a Mayor of London election. Many Liberal Democrat voters would still not have voted for Mr Stewart, even tactically.

there was polling in 2016 that showed Boris winning had he stood for a third term.

Yes, while Ken Livingstone was clearly a flawed candidate by the time of those elections I think it’s clear that Boris was also a good fit as the Tory candidate