Post by Robert Waller on Sept 28, 2023 14:02:42 GMT
Dorking and Horley is a newly named, and partly new, constituency in east-central Surrey. Its core consists of 63.4% of the Mole Valley seat. Where has the other 36.6% gone? It has been split three ways. The largest block, over 14,000 voters has been transferred to Guildford constituency - Effingham, Clandon & Horsley, Send and Lovelace wards. These are already in Guildford borough, not Mole Valley District, for local government purposes. 11% of Mole Valley constituency is moved to Epsom & Ewell: this is composed of the two Leatherhead wards, so it loses one of its larger communities (Leatherhead has over 8,500 electors and a population of 11,000 plus). Finally 6% goes to the new Godalming & Ash, in the shape of the rural Tillingbourne ward, 4,500 voters spread widely south west of Dorking including those in the villages of Shere, Gomshall, Albury and Peaslake.
In exchange, as the name of this seat implies, the three wards of Horley, just north of Gatwick Airport are transferred in from the East Surrey division. This accounts for over a fifth of the East Surrey electorate. Horley, with a population of 27,000, will be the largest urban unit in the Dorking & Horley seat. Also small sections of the Reigate and Guildford constituencies are also added, the latter consisting of the village of Ewhurst, which will be an ‘orphan’ ward of Waverley borough in Dorking & Horley constituency, and the former due to the revised ward boundaries in Reigate & Banstead Borough in 2019 (Horley was actually unusual in being in East Surrey constituency but not in the Tandrdige council area). The incoming Horley wards also now include the small communities of Salfords and Sidlow which were in the Reigate seat.
If all this sounds rather ‘cobbled together’, it is. But the basis of Dorking & Horley will still be Mole Valley – most of it is in the Mole Valley District, and most of Mole Valley is in this parliamentary seat. Where is Mole Valley, a stranger may ask? The most romantic answer is: between the Surrey hills. It is indeed true that this seat includes the attractions of Leith Hill, the highest point in south-eastern England, which reaches 1,000 feet with the assistance of a monumental tower; and of Box Hill, to which Londoners have been travelling for relaxation and restoration for well over a century.
The Conservative party did very well in Valleys in the 2019 general election – or at least in those seats with Valley in their name. As well as their stunning victory at the beginning of the night in Blyth Valley, they comfortably gained Don Valley and Rother Valley from Labour in addition to holding Ribble Valley, Amber Valley, Meon Valley and Mole Valley with overwhelming majorities. In Wales they held on to the Vale of Glamorgan in somewhat difficult circumstances and gained the Vale of Clwyd. At least Labour managed narrowly to keep Weaver Vale in Cheshire, and Cynon Valley – which is in the archetypal ‘valleys’, those of South Wales.
However although the Tory majority in Mole Valley was over 12,000 in December 2019, this was only half of their lead just two years earlier. The Liberal Democrat share increased from 19% to 34% between 2017 and 2019. This was only partially achieved by squeezing Labour in third place down from 14% to only just over the 5% deposit threshold. The veteran MP Sir Paul Beresford saw his share drop by over 6%. As in neighbouring Surrey seats like Guildford and Esher & Walton, a chief reason for the swing to the Liberal Democrats was the referendum result; Mole Valley is estimated to have preferred Remain in 2016 by 53% to 47%.
What is likely to happen in the inaugural contest in Dorking & Horley, probably in 2024? Some evidence comes from the May 2023 council elections when, as in most parts of Surrey, the Conservatives performed very poorly compared with both Lib Dems and local residents and independent groups. Starting with the predominant local authority within the seat, Mole Valley district, Ashtead, regularly swept by an organization naming itself in 2019 ‘Ashtead Independent, Working with Ashtead Residents’ was actually already in Epsom and Ewell constituency, but Liberal Democrats won 10 of the other 11 Mole Valley council wards contested that May. Not only did they take wards where the Conservatives might be expected to struggle, at least relatively, such as the less affluent northern half of Leatherhead and southern section of Dorking abutting the Holmwoods, where the social housing estate even has a handful of tower blocks; but they also won in very comfortable suburbs such as Bookham and Fetcham (for example in 2011 Fetcham West ward is 92% owner occupied, one of the highest figures recorded anywhere) and in rural wards such as Mickleham, Westcott & Oakwood and Capel, Leigh, Newdigate & Charlwood. In fact the Conservatives returned councillors in only two wards. One was Leatherhead South, which is the site of Sir Michael Caine’s former English home, and Beaverbrooks exclusive hotel and golf resort, formerly Cherkley Court, long the country retreat of Max Aitken, the eponymous lord - but Leatherhead South is departing to Epsom & Ewell. The other Conservative won on a clear personal vote, along with two Liberals, in the lengthily named ward of Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill & Headley.
In addition to their near sweep in Mole Valley, the Lib Dems also took the solitary Ewhurst ward from Waverley borough in May 2023. In the Horley wards of Reigate & Banstead borough the picture was better for the Tories. They did manage to win Horley West & Sidlow and Horley Central – their only outright victories anywhere within the new Dorking & Horley in May 2023. But the Greens unseated their sitting councillor in Horley East & Salfords, perhaps building on their local government success just to the north up the A23 in Redhill.
Given that this woeful level of performance in municipal contests in not new, it might be wondered why in December 2019 The Conservatives still won the parliamentary seat by a five figure margin. The answer probably has to do with voters opting for the Tories in a general election, and also possibly the perceived threat of a Liberal Democrat vote letting in a socialist Corbyn government. Should the next general election focus less on Europe, the Liberal Democrats might slip back. On the other hand their local government strength and the possibility of an economically blighted Conservative government, together with a Labour brand less toxic to this basically very well-off part of Surrey, means that Mole Valley can no longer be regarded as a Conservative stronghold. For example, who would ever have thought that after the 2019 election this ‘Valley’ constituency would now need an eight per cent lower swing to be lost by the Tories that Derbyshire’s Amber Valley, site of such gritty towns as Alfreton. The boundary changes, and the change of name to Dorking and Horley, make little difference to this situation.
Looking at the demographics of the new seat, in previous eras it would appear as nothing other than a Tory citadel in the prosperous Home Counties. Dorking & Horley is more elderly than average, has a much higher level of owner occupation than the norm, and it is well into the top 100 seats for professional and managerial occupations and degree-level education. Surrey used to be a byword for comfortable and even perhaps complacent Conservatism. No more. There are several serious Liberal Democrat targets in the county. In fact it may even offer some relief for the beleaguered party that has been in command so long here that their challengers may choose, or have, to focus on even better opportunities in Surrey such as Esher & Walton and Guildford. The habit of routinely voting Conservative has dramatically withered. Times have indeed changed, and become unpredictable, among hills and valleys alike.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.3 % 155/575
Owner occupied 74.8% 59/575
Private rented 14.2% 471/575
Social rented 10.9% 481/575
White 91.7% 268/575
Black 1.3% 288/575
Asian 3.6% 318/575
Managerial & professional 43.1% 67/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.4% 520/575
Degree level 43.6% 75/573
No qualifications 12.1% 539/573
Students 5.0% 402/575
2019 General Election
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Paul Beresford 31,656 55.4 -6.4
Liberal Democrats Paul Kennedy 19,615 34.4 +15.0
Labour Brian Bostock 2,965 5.2 -8.7
Green Lisa Scott-Conte 1,874 3.3 +0.7
Independent Robin Horsley 536 0.9 N/A
UKIP Geoffrey Cox 464 0.8 -1.6
C Majority 12,041 21.0 -21.4
Turnout 57,110 76.5 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 10.7 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Dorking & Horley consists of
63.4% of Mole Valley
22.0% of East Surrey
3.7% of Reigate
2.1% of Guildford
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_305_Dorking%20and%20Horley_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
In exchange, as the name of this seat implies, the three wards of Horley, just north of Gatwick Airport are transferred in from the East Surrey division. This accounts for over a fifth of the East Surrey electorate. Horley, with a population of 27,000, will be the largest urban unit in the Dorking & Horley seat. Also small sections of the Reigate and Guildford constituencies are also added, the latter consisting of the village of Ewhurst, which will be an ‘orphan’ ward of Waverley borough in Dorking & Horley constituency, and the former due to the revised ward boundaries in Reigate & Banstead Borough in 2019 (Horley was actually unusual in being in East Surrey constituency but not in the Tandrdige council area). The incoming Horley wards also now include the small communities of Salfords and Sidlow which were in the Reigate seat.
If all this sounds rather ‘cobbled together’, it is. But the basis of Dorking & Horley will still be Mole Valley – most of it is in the Mole Valley District, and most of Mole Valley is in this parliamentary seat. Where is Mole Valley, a stranger may ask? The most romantic answer is: between the Surrey hills. It is indeed true that this seat includes the attractions of Leith Hill, the highest point in south-eastern England, which reaches 1,000 feet with the assistance of a monumental tower; and of Box Hill, to which Londoners have been travelling for relaxation and restoration for well over a century.
The Conservative party did very well in Valleys in the 2019 general election – or at least in those seats with Valley in their name. As well as their stunning victory at the beginning of the night in Blyth Valley, they comfortably gained Don Valley and Rother Valley from Labour in addition to holding Ribble Valley, Amber Valley, Meon Valley and Mole Valley with overwhelming majorities. In Wales they held on to the Vale of Glamorgan in somewhat difficult circumstances and gained the Vale of Clwyd. At least Labour managed narrowly to keep Weaver Vale in Cheshire, and Cynon Valley – which is in the archetypal ‘valleys’, those of South Wales.
However although the Tory majority in Mole Valley was over 12,000 in December 2019, this was only half of their lead just two years earlier. The Liberal Democrat share increased from 19% to 34% between 2017 and 2019. This was only partially achieved by squeezing Labour in third place down from 14% to only just over the 5% deposit threshold. The veteran MP Sir Paul Beresford saw his share drop by over 6%. As in neighbouring Surrey seats like Guildford and Esher & Walton, a chief reason for the swing to the Liberal Democrats was the referendum result; Mole Valley is estimated to have preferred Remain in 2016 by 53% to 47%.
What is likely to happen in the inaugural contest in Dorking & Horley, probably in 2024? Some evidence comes from the May 2023 council elections when, as in most parts of Surrey, the Conservatives performed very poorly compared with both Lib Dems and local residents and independent groups. Starting with the predominant local authority within the seat, Mole Valley district, Ashtead, regularly swept by an organization naming itself in 2019 ‘Ashtead Independent, Working with Ashtead Residents’ was actually already in Epsom and Ewell constituency, but Liberal Democrats won 10 of the other 11 Mole Valley council wards contested that May. Not only did they take wards where the Conservatives might be expected to struggle, at least relatively, such as the less affluent northern half of Leatherhead and southern section of Dorking abutting the Holmwoods, where the social housing estate even has a handful of tower blocks; but they also won in very comfortable suburbs such as Bookham and Fetcham (for example in 2011 Fetcham West ward is 92% owner occupied, one of the highest figures recorded anywhere) and in rural wards such as Mickleham, Westcott & Oakwood and Capel, Leigh, Newdigate & Charlwood. In fact the Conservatives returned councillors in only two wards. One was Leatherhead South, which is the site of Sir Michael Caine’s former English home, and Beaverbrooks exclusive hotel and golf resort, formerly Cherkley Court, long the country retreat of Max Aitken, the eponymous lord - but Leatherhead South is departing to Epsom & Ewell. The other Conservative won on a clear personal vote, along with two Liberals, in the lengthily named ward of Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill & Headley.
In addition to their near sweep in Mole Valley, the Lib Dems also took the solitary Ewhurst ward from Waverley borough in May 2023. In the Horley wards of Reigate & Banstead borough the picture was better for the Tories. They did manage to win Horley West & Sidlow and Horley Central – their only outright victories anywhere within the new Dorking & Horley in May 2023. But the Greens unseated their sitting councillor in Horley East & Salfords, perhaps building on their local government success just to the north up the A23 in Redhill.
Given that this woeful level of performance in municipal contests in not new, it might be wondered why in December 2019 The Conservatives still won the parliamentary seat by a five figure margin. The answer probably has to do with voters opting for the Tories in a general election, and also possibly the perceived threat of a Liberal Democrat vote letting in a socialist Corbyn government. Should the next general election focus less on Europe, the Liberal Democrats might slip back. On the other hand their local government strength and the possibility of an economically blighted Conservative government, together with a Labour brand less toxic to this basically very well-off part of Surrey, means that Mole Valley can no longer be regarded as a Conservative stronghold. For example, who would ever have thought that after the 2019 election this ‘Valley’ constituency would now need an eight per cent lower swing to be lost by the Tories that Derbyshire’s Amber Valley, site of such gritty towns as Alfreton. The boundary changes, and the change of name to Dorking and Horley, make little difference to this situation.
Looking at the demographics of the new seat, in previous eras it would appear as nothing other than a Tory citadel in the prosperous Home Counties. Dorking & Horley is more elderly than average, has a much higher level of owner occupation than the norm, and it is well into the top 100 seats for professional and managerial occupations and degree-level education. Surrey used to be a byword for comfortable and even perhaps complacent Conservatism. No more. There are several serious Liberal Democrat targets in the county. In fact it may even offer some relief for the beleaguered party that has been in command so long here that their challengers may choose, or have, to focus on even better opportunities in Surrey such as Esher & Walton and Guildford. The habit of routinely voting Conservative has dramatically withered. Times have indeed changed, and become unpredictable, among hills and valleys alike.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.3 % 155/575
Owner occupied 74.8% 59/575
Private rented 14.2% 471/575
Social rented 10.9% 481/575
White 91.7% 268/575
Black 1.3% 288/575
Asian 3.6% 318/575
Managerial & professional 43.1% 67/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.4% 520/575
Degree level 43.6% 75/573
No qualifications 12.1% 539/573
Students 5.0% 402/575
2019 General Election
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Paul Beresford 31,656 55.4 -6.4
Liberal Democrats Paul Kennedy 19,615 34.4 +15.0
Labour Brian Bostock 2,965 5.2 -8.7
Green Lisa Scott-Conte 1,874 3.3 +0.7
Independent Robin Horsley 536 0.9 N/A
UKIP Geoffrey Cox 464 0.8 -1.6
C Majority 12,041 21.0 -21.4
Turnout 57,110 76.5 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 10.7 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Dorking & Horley consists of
63.4% of Mole Valley
22.0% of East Surrey
3.7% of Reigate
2.1% of Guildford
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_305_Dorking%20and%20Horley_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Con | 27883 | 51.2% |
| LD | 17502 | 32.1% |
| Lab | 5415 | 9.9% |
| Grn | 2302 | 4.2% |
| Oths | 1393 | 2.6% |
| Majority | 10381 | 19.1% |
