Post by Robert Waller on Sept 27, 2023 20:19:23 GMT
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch may be a bit of a mouthful. It’s a far cry from Bath, say, or even Falkirk (the shortest proposed name in Scotland). But it is definitely shorter than its predecessor seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – which might be thought at 38 letters is more than a little excessive for a constituency name. The change, as decreed in the final report of the Scottish Boundary Commission of June 2023, is still a little odd. Parts of Kirkintilloch are still excluded, while Kilsyth is still in the seat; indeed the previous version as recommended in the Commission’s revised recommendations in late 2022 actually named it as Kilsyth Hills and Cumbernauld and made no mention of Kirkintilloch, despite the fact that pretty much the whole of that town was included. Where it comes to nomenclature, the various Boundary Commissions do work in mysterious ways.
However it would be hard to deny representation in the title to the largest community. Cumbernauld, the New Town scattered across windy hills some 15 miles north east of Glasgow, has a population of just over 50,000 in 2021, which just about entitles it to be rated among the ten largest urban units in Scotland, although the growth that followed its designation in 1955 stopped some decades ago, and it has actually lost numbers since the 2011 census. Perhaps its prime was around the time that Cumbernauld (specifically the eastern neighbourhood of Abronhill) was employed as the setting for Bill Forsyth’s wry and successful film, Gregory’s Girl, in 1980. Cumbernauld has featured in a constituency title from 1983, having previously been modestly located within East Dunbartonshire. It was because the electorate needed expanding that before the 2005 general election that a ward centred on part of Kirkintilloch was added, and thus the name lengthened; and the seat itself will again be expanded in the current review, though thankfully the name will not.
Despite its historic location in Dunbartonshire, Cumbernauld was placed under the aegis of North Lanarkshire in the Scottish local government reforms that were enacted in 1996. The present seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East in effect covers the very northern tip of North Lanarkshire including a fair chunk of thinly populated upland territory, the bracing moorland attractions one can savour as one wends over them on the drovers route called Tak-Ma-Doon Road. Curiously, Kilsyth was historically in Stirlingshire, and Kirkintilloch is still in Dunbartonshire.
Cumbernauld accounts for about 41,000 of the 2019 electorate of 66,000. It has long been a Scottish National Party stronghold. In the most recent North Lanarkshire elections in May 2022, for example, the SNP took an absolute majority of first preferences, 50.2%, in the most populous ward, North, which includes neighbourhoods such as Wardpark, Westerwood, Carrickstone, and Balloch (one of the last to be developed). Labour (27.7%) and the Conservatives (14.2%) trailed far behind. However, North is the least strong of the three wards for the SNP; it had nearly twice the proportion of professional and managerial workers that the other two wards reported in the 2011 Scottish census though even there it was not much above a quarter of the whole 16-64 population. In Cumbernauld South in May 2022 the SNP polled nearly 52% and in East they achieved a mighty 58.5% that actually elected three Nationalists to its four council seats. East includes Gregory’s Abronhill as well as Luggiebank, Lenziemill, Seafar and Kildrum. South’s neigbourhoods are Condorrat (rather older), Greenfaulds and Carbrain, and it also covers the station entrance and essentially, the ruthlessly planned and brutalistically accomplished town centre. The Broadwood stadium which hosted Clyde football club for 28 years until they departed to Hamilton in 2022, is in the western part of North ward. Overall, the parts of Cumbernauld north of the bisecting M80 are in general somewhat the more advantaged parts.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Cumbernauld%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
One feature of the census figures that makes the seat distinctive is the remarkably high proportion who are owner occupiers with the aid of a mortgage or loan, rather than outright: a product of the sale of the former New Town properties.
Unlike Cumbernauld, Kilsyth (population 10,000) favours the Labour party, in local elections at least. In May 2022 its ward - which also includes villages such as Queenzieburn and Banton and extensive hill country extending as far north as the south bank of the Carron Valley reservoir - gave Labour 52.4% first preferences to the SNP’s 37.4%. For all its attractive setting, Kilsyth has over 30% of its housing in the social rented sector and a plurality of its workforce in the semi and unskilled ‘DE’ categories. In no part of Kilsyth are as many of 15% of young people aged 17-21 participating in university studies:
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Kilsyth%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
The final part of the constituency is the section around Kirkintilloch. This is a town with a population estimated at over 21,000 in 2022, which until 2005 was entirely placed in the marginal Strathkelvin & Bearsden seat, which had been won by both Conservative and Labour (and the majority of which was about to be gained by the youthful Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson). In May 2022 the Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar ward was actually headed by none of these, as the SNP took 38% of the first preferences, but it was more widely competitive than all the others in its current seat, as Labour received 29%, the Liberal Democrats 19% and the Conservatives 12%. The suggested addition to the ‘Cumbernauld etc’ seat in the Lenzie & Kirkintilloch South ward, which is currently partly in East Dunbartonshire, will now not be switched to this constituency, but will be almost entirely (99.7%) placed in the newly named Mid Dunbartonshire. This actually means that there will be less of the Kirkintilloch area in this seat than before.
Instead, in the final boundary report, the Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead ward will be moved in from Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. In May 2022 the SNP were ahead in that ward, with a relatively low share for its former seat of 36% (it was also the only ward in that constituency in which the Conservatives reached double figures in percentage share, having some decent swathes of private housing).
Overall, though, scarcely more than a dent is likely to be made in the SNP dominance in the Cumbernauld based seat, which had their 4th largest majority in December 2019, behind only Aberdeen North and the two Dundee divisions. In the 2021 Scottish Parliament election in the similar Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, the SNP won with over twice the Labour support – 58.6% to 29.2%. Gregory’s Girl is a film about amiable uncertainty. In political terms, that may apply to this Cumbernauld based seat.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.1% 448/650
Owner-occupied 68.1% 279/650
Owned with a mortgage or loan 42.7% 10/650
Private rented 8.6% 621/650
Social rented 22.5% 158/650
White 97.9% 125/650
Black 0.2% 500/650
Asian 1.5% 406/650
Born in Scotland 92.6% 5/650
Christian 61.2% 11/59
Managerial & professional 27.0 %
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7%
Degree level 19.8% 518/650
Level 1 qualifications 26.2% 8/650
No qualifications 27.2% 162/650
Students 7.7% 242/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
2019 General Election: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Stuart McDonald 24,158 52.8 +9.2
Labour James McPhilemy 11,182 24.5 -9.6
Conservative Roz McCall 7,380 16.1 -2.2
Liberal Democrats Susan Murray 2,966 6.6 +3.7
SNP Majority 12,976 28.4 +18.7
2019 electorate 66,079
Turnout 45,716 69.3 +3.4
SNP hold
Swing 9.3 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch consists of
88.9% of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
14.3% of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
1.1% of Glasgow East
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/cumbernauld_and_Kirkintilloch.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
However it would be hard to deny representation in the title to the largest community. Cumbernauld, the New Town scattered across windy hills some 15 miles north east of Glasgow, has a population of just over 50,000 in 2021, which just about entitles it to be rated among the ten largest urban units in Scotland, although the growth that followed its designation in 1955 stopped some decades ago, and it has actually lost numbers since the 2011 census. Perhaps its prime was around the time that Cumbernauld (specifically the eastern neighbourhood of Abronhill) was employed as the setting for Bill Forsyth’s wry and successful film, Gregory’s Girl, in 1980. Cumbernauld has featured in a constituency title from 1983, having previously been modestly located within East Dunbartonshire. It was because the electorate needed expanding that before the 2005 general election that a ward centred on part of Kirkintilloch was added, and thus the name lengthened; and the seat itself will again be expanded in the current review, though thankfully the name will not.
Despite its historic location in Dunbartonshire, Cumbernauld was placed under the aegis of North Lanarkshire in the Scottish local government reforms that were enacted in 1996. The present seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East in effect covers the very northern tip of North Lanarkshire including a fair chunk of thinly populated upland territory, the bracing moorland attractions one can savour as one wends over them on the drovers route called Tak-Ma-Doon Road. Curiously, Kilsyth was historically in Stirlingshire, and Kirkintilloch is still in Dunbartonshire.
Cumbernauld accounts for about 41,000 of the 2019 electorate of 66,000. It has long been a Scottish National Party stronghold. In the most recent North Lanarkshire elections in May 2022, for example, the SNP took an absolute majority of first preferences, 50.2%, in the most populous ward, North, which includes neighbourhoods such as Wardpark, Westerwood, Carrickstone, and Balloch (one of the last to be developed). Labour (27.7%) and the Conservatives (14.2%) trailed far behind. However, North is the least strong of the three wards for the SNP; it had nearly twice the proportion of professional and managerial workers that the other two wards reported in the 2011 Scottish census though even there it was not much above a quarter of the whole 16-64 population. In Cumbernauld South in May 2022 the SNP polled nearly 52% and in East they achieved a mighty 58.5% that actually elected three Nationalists to its four council seats. East includes Gregory’s Abronhill as well as Luggiebank, Lenziemill, Seafar and Kildrum. South’s neigbourhoods are Condorrat (rather older), Greenfaulds and Carbrain, and it also covers the station entrance and essentially, the ruthlessly planned and brutalistically accomplished town centre. The Broadwood stadium which hosted Clyde football club for 28 years until they departed to Hamilton in 2022, is in the western part of North ward. Overall, the parts of Cumbernauld north of the bisecting M80 are in general somewhat the more advantaged parts.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Cumbernauld%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
One feature of the census figures that makes the seat distinctive is the remarkably high proportion who are owner occupiers with the aid of a mortgage or loan, rather than outright: a product of the sale of the former New Town properties.
Unlike Cumbernauld, Kilsyth (population 10,000) favours the Labour party, in local elections at least. In May 2022 its ward - which also includes villages such as Queenzieburn and Banton and extensive hill country extending as far north as the south bank of the Carron Valley reservoir - gave Labour 52.4% first preferences to the SNP’s 37.4%. For all its attractive setting, Kilsyth has over 30% of its housing in the social rented sector and a plurality of its workforce in the semi and unskilled ‘DE’ categories. In no part of Kilsyth are as many of 15% of young people aged 17-21 participating in university studies:
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Kilsyth%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
The final part of the constituency is the section around Kirkintilloch. This is a town with a population estimated at over 21,000 in 2022, which until 2005 was entirely placed in the marginal Strathkelvin & Bearsden seat, which had been won by both Conservative and Labour (and the majority of which was about to be gained by the youthful Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson). In May 2022 the Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar ward was actually headed by none of these, as the SNP took 38% of the first preferences, but it was more widely competitive than all the others in its current seat, as Labour received 29%, the Liberal Democrats 19% and the Conservatives 12%. The suggested addition to the ‘Cumbernauld etc’ seat in the Lenzie & Kirkintilloch South ward, which is currently partly in East Dunbartonshire, will now not be switched to this constituency, but will be almost entirely (99.7%) placed in the newly named Mid Dunbartonshire. This actually means that there will be less of the Kirkintilloch area in this seat than before.
Instead, in the final boundary report, the Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead ward will be moved in from Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. In May 2022 the SNP were ahead in that ward, with a relatively low share for its former seat of 36% (it was also the only ward in that constituency in which the Conservatives reached double figures in percentage share, having some decent swathes of private housing).
Overall, though, scarcely more than a dent is likely to be made in the SNP dominance in the Cumbernauld based seat, which had their 4th largest majority in December 2019, behind only Aberdeen North and the two Dundee divisions. In the 2021 Scottish Parliament election in the similar Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, the SNP won with over twice the Labour support – 58.6% to 29.2%. Gregory’s Girl is a film about amiable uncertainty. In political terms, that may apply to this Cumbernauld based seat.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.1% 448/650
Owner-occupied 68.1% 279/650
Owned with a mortgage or loan 42.7% 10/650
Private rented 8.6% 621/650
Social rented 22.5% 158/650
White 97.9% 125/650
Black 0.2% 500/650
Asian 1.5% 406/650
Born in Scotland 92.6% 5/650
Christian 61.2% 11/59
Managerial & professional 27.0 %
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7%
Degree level 19.8% 518/650
Level 1 qualifications 26.2% 8/650
No qualifications 27.2% 162/650
Students 7.7% 242/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
2019 General Election: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Stuart McDonald 24,158 52.8 +9.2
Labour James McPhilemy 11,182 24.5 -9.6
Conservative Roz McCall 7,380 16.1 -2.2
Liberal Democrats Susan Murray 2,966 6.6 +3.7
SNP Majority 12,976 28.4 +18.7
2019 electorate 66,079
Turnout 45,716 69.3 +3.4
SNP hold
Swing 9.3 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch consists of
88.9% of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
14.3% of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
1.1% of Glasgow East
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/cumbernauld_and_Kirkintilloch.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 25084 | 52.0% |
| Lab | 13079 | 27.1% |
| Con | 7243 | 15.0% |
| LD | 2691 | 5.6% |
| Green | 115 | 0.2% |
| | ||
| Majority | 12005 | 24.9% |
