Post by Robert Waller on Sept 27, 2023 9:45:17 GMT
Motherwell is a significant Scottish town. That statement may be supported by a number of different types of evidence. Although it scarcely existed before the Industrial Revolution, by the end of the 19th century with a population of 37,000 it was one of the ten largest urban units in Scotland, a distinction it retained until the growth of the post Second World War New Towns such as East Kilbride, Cumbernauld and Glenrothes. Between 1930 and 1975 together with its ‘twin town’ of Wishaw it was dignified as one of 22 ‘large burghs’. Now it is the administrative centre of the North Lanarkshire council, the fourth largest local authority in Scotland, which has a total population of just over 340,000. Turning to another indicator, Motherwell FC has been in the highest Scottish league (now called the Premiership) continuously since 1985, a record surpassed only by Aberdeen and Celtic. Finally, Motherwell’s distinction is indicated in electoral terms by the fact that between 1983 and 1997 there were actually two constituencies that bore its name (and no other) – Motherwell North and South.
In fact, though, it could be argued either that Motherwell is punching above its weight in some of the indicators above or alternatively that it has been fortunate to be so prominent. If the town was created and boomed through the Industrial Revolution, it has been diminished in a number of ways by the post-industrial age. From the arrival of the railway and the iron and steel industry in the mid 19th century, then specifically the construction of the vast Ravenscraig steelworks from 1954, the town has been characterized as a centre of heavy manufacture, but since Ravenscraig closed in 1992 there has been a very large hole in its economy, culture, and indeed physical appearance. The enormous gap where the steelworks was has been described as the largest brownfield site in Europe. As yet ambitions plans to redevelop this waste as a large new town have only nibbled at its edges, as in the Carfin and even newer Raven’s Cliff neighbourhoods.
mapcarta.com/N3296260881
Motherwell’s latest (2021) estimated population is only 32,000, less than it was a century ago, and it is now only the fourth largest town in North Lanarkshire, after Cumbernauld, Coatbridge and Airdrie. Not only is Motherwell now firmly confined to just one parliamentary constituency, but it will be paired in future with a large tract of land from South Lanarkshire district bearing the Clydesdale name.
Like much of the Scottish central industrial belt Motherwell has exchanged a long tradition of Labour support and representation for what seems an equally entrenched commitment to Nationalism. Labour held the parliamentary seat or seats from the 1945 general election until 2015, but since then Marion Fellows has won it three times, albeit by only 367 votes in 2017. In the most recent general election in December 2019, though, she increased her lead nearly 20 fold to over 6,000. In the case of the Scottish Parliament the somewhat smaller Motherwell & Wishaw seat has been held by the SNP since 2016, with a 23 point lead over Labour in 2021. In fact the Nationalist success in this area goes way back to the byelection in Motherwell in April 1945, when Robert McIntyre became their first ever MP. He was the only opponent facing Labour due to the wartime coalition still pertaining, and he lost it back to them three months later. But Motherwell will forever have the distinction of predating the next SNP Westminster parliamentary success by over 22 years before Winnie Ewing also won in a byelection, in the neighbouring town of Hamilton.
Motherwell and Wishaw are also solidly held by the SNP at ward level on North Lanarkshire council. They led in May 2022 in all three Motherwell wards, with shares ranging between 41% in West to 47% in North (43% in Motherwell SE & Ravenscraig). Labour also did their own best in North, and in all three wards the SNP lead on combined first preferences was between 9% and 11%. The best Conservative performance was 19% in Motherwell West; there is a pleasant residential area centred on Ladywell Road, and indeed the Tories did tend to win the small Ladywell ward back in the pre-STV years. The Wishaw results were very similar to those in Motherwell: SNP 455%, Labour 36%, Tory 18%. At present the Westminster seat also includes parts of three other North Lanarkshire wards. These include the southern section of Bellshill around Babylon Road and Liberty Road. Bellshill ward saw an SNP lead over Labour of just 2% in 2022. Motherwell & Wishaw also includes at present the southern parts of Mossend & Holytown ward, such as the communities of Milnwood and New Stevenston. The SNP was about 3% ahead in that ward as a whole at the last council elections. Finally, the seat includes almost all of the more rural Murdostoun ward over to the east towards Cleland and Crindledyke and including Coltness and Newmains. The voting patterns here are clouded by the election at the top of the poll in 2022 of a popular local Independent, Robert McKendrick. However, nowhere within the Motherwell & Wishaw seat as at present constituted was Labour ahead of the SNP in 2022.
The lines will be substantially altered before the next general election. In the final Scottish Boundary Commission proposals of June 2023, almost 22% of the existing electorate is to be transferred out of the constituency, 12% to the revised Coatbridge & Bellshill seat in the form of the section in Bellshill ward, and nearly 10% to Airdrie & Shotts in parts of Mossend & Holytown and, Murdostoun (the northern part centred on Parkside) and even some of Motherwell North ward, including Newarthill. Instead, over 17,600 voters come in from South Lanarkshire (Lanark & Hamilton East constituency), mainly in the 14,000 strong Clydesdale West ward, in which the largest community is Carluke, and the seat is renamed Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke. Motherwell’s declining population and hence weight in the seat, as described above, is reflected in it now contributing only one third of the name – having had half of Motherwell & Wishaw since 1997 and two seats before that.
The added areas have different political and social characteristics from the established Motherwell and Wishaw portions of the seat. In the 2022 South Lanarkshire elections for example, the SNP’s 33% in Clydesdale West was outstripped by Labour’s 38%, and the Conservatives also did better than anywhere within the present boundaries, with 23%. The order of the parties was the same in Clydesdale North, although only small part of the ward is to be included here.
Overall the boundary changes will modify this constituency’s demographic characteristics. At the time of the 2011 Census (although the new housing developments will have reduced the figure a little) Motherwell & Wishaw had one of the highest fifteen proportions of social rented housing in the United Kingdom, over 37% - fourth highest in Scotland after three Glasgow seats, a very high ranking considering the tradition of the ‘council hoose’ north of the border. In the Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig ward, for example, over 50% of all housing was still in the social rented sector. In Motherwell North, much of which is now to be removed, the proportion was over one-third. But in the Clydesdale additions, it was well under 30%. The existing seat also has a very high percentage of residents with no educational qualifications and very few with degrees: fewer than 20% in most of Motherwell and Wishaw, but nearer 30% in Clydesdale North. In Motherwell and Wishaw wards there were overall slightly more Catholics than Protestants, largely because of a heavy Catholic plurality in Motherwell North. But that ward is partly to be removed, like Bellshill which also has an RC plurality, whereas the Clydesdale wards are merely 10% Catholic. Finally, Motherwell is itself a very ‘Scottish’ town, and the seat did have the fourth highest proportion born in Scotland, well over 90%. However the percentage born in England, say, was over twice that in the Clydesdale segment as in any Motherwell or Wishaw ward.
The impact of the South Lanarkshire / Upper Clydesdale element politically would not change the notional 2019 result much. But remembering that 367 vote lead in 2017, it will, if only slightly, probably make it slightly easier for Labour one day to regain the seat; and Labour’s chances of having an overall majority in the Westminster Commons again will be greatly enhanced if they can manage to win some more Scottish constituencies.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.6% 409/650
Owner-occupied 54.8% 544/650
Private rented 6.9% 645/650
Social rented 37.6% 14/650
White 97.5% 182/650
Black 0.3% 484/650
Asian 2.0% 362/650
Christian 68.5% 5/59
Born in Scotland 92.7% 4/650
Managerial & professional 24.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8%
Degree level 17.5% 579/650
No qualifications 33.2% 36/650
Students 6.6% 358/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
General Election 2019: Motherwell and Wishaw
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Marion Fellows 20,622 46.4 +7.9
Labour Angela Feeney 14,354 32.3 -5.5
Conservative Meghan Gallacher 7,150 16.1 -4.1
Liberal Democrats Christopher Wilson 1,675 3.8 +1.6
UKIP Neil Wilson 619 1.4 +0.1
SNP Majority 6,268 14.1 +13.4
2019 electorate 68,856
Turnout 44,420 64.6 +3.1
SNP hold
Swing 6.7 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke will consist of
78.2% of Motherwell & Wishaw
22.5% of Lanark & Hamilton East
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/motherwell_wishaw_and_carluke.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
In fact, though, it could be argued either that Motherwell is punching above its weight in some of the indicators above or alternatively that it has been fortunate to be so prominent. If the town was created and boomed through the Industrial Revolution, it has been diminished in a number of ways by the post-industrial age. From the arrival of the railway and the iron and steel industry in the mid 19th century, then specifically the construction of the vast Ravenscraig steelworks from 1954, the town has been characterized as a centre of heavy manufacture, but since Ravenscraig closed in 1992 there has been a very large hole in its economy, culture, and indeed physical appearance. The enormous gap where the steelworks was has been described as the largest brownfield site in Europe. As yet ambitions plans to redevelop this waste as a large new town have only nibbled at its edges, as in the Carfin and even newer Raven’s Cliff neighbourhoods.
mapcarta.com/N3296260881
Motherwell’s latest (2021) estimated population is only 32,000, less than it was a century ago, and it is now only the fourth largest town in North Lanarkshire, after Cumbernauld, Coatbridge and Airdrie. Not only is Motherwell now firmly confined to just one parliamentary constituency, but it will be paired in future with a large tract of land from South Lanarkshire district bearing the Clydesdale name.
Like much of the Scottish central industrial belt Motherwell has exchanged a long tradition of Labour support and representation for what seems an equally entrenched commitment to Nationalism. Labour held the parliamentary seat or seats from the 1945 general election until 2015, but since then Marion Fellows has won it three times, albeit by only 367 votes in 2017. In the most recent general election in December 2019, though, she increased her lead nearly 20 fold to over 6,000. In the case of the Scottish Parliament the somewhat smaller Motherwell & Wishaw seat has been held by the SNP since 2016, with a 23 point lead over Labour in 2021. In fact the Nationalist success in this area goes way back to the byelection in Motherwell in April 1945, when Robert McIntyre became their first ever MP. He was the only opponent facing Labour due to the wartime coalition still pertaining, and he lost it back to them three months later. But Motherwell will forever have the distinction of predating the next SNP Westminster parliamentary success by over 22 years before Winnie Ewing also won in a byelection, in the neighbouring town of Hamilton.
Motherwell and Wishaw are also solidly held by the SNP at ward level on North Lanarkshire council. They led in May 2022 in all three Motherwell wards, with shares ranging between 41% in West to 47% in North (43% in Motherwell SE & Ravenscraig). Labour also did their own best in North, and in all three wards the SNP lead on combined first preferences was between 9% and 11%. The best Conservative performance was 19% in Motherwell West; there is a pleasant residential area centred on Ladywell Road, and indeed the Tories did tend to win the small Ladywell ward back in the pre-STV years. The Wishaw results were very similar to those in Motherwell: SNP 455%, Labour 36%, Tory 18%. At present the Westminster seat also includes parts of three other North Lanarkshire wards. These include the southern section of Bellshill around Babylon Road and Liberty Road. Bellshill ward saw an SNP lead over Labour of just 2% in 2022. Motherwell & Wishaw also includes at present the southern parts of Mossend & Holytown ward, such as the communities of Milnwood and New Stevenston. The SNP was about 3% ahead in that ward as a whole at the last council elections. Finally, the seat includes almost all of the more rural Murdostoun ward over to the east towards Cleland and Crindledyke and including Coltness and Newmains. The voting patterns here are clouded by the election at the top of the poll in 2022 of a popular local Independent, Robert McKendrick. However, nowhere within the Motherwell & Wishaw seat as at present constituted was Labour ahead of the SNP in 2022.
The lines will be substantially altered before the next general election. In the final Scottish Boundary Commission proposals of June 2023, almost 22% of the existing electorate is to be transferred out of the constituency, 12% to the revised Coatbridge & Bellshill seat in the form of the section in Bellshill ward, and nearly 10% to Airdrie & Shotts in parts of Mossend & Holytown and, Murdostoun (the northern part centred on Parkside) and even some of Motherwell North ward, including Newarthill. Instead, over 17,600 voters come in from South Lanarkshire (Lanark & Hamilton East constituency), mainly in the 14,000 strong Clydesdale West ward, in which the largest community is Carluke, and the seat is renamed Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke. Motherwell’s declining population and hence weight in the seat, as described above, is reflected in it now contributing only one third of the name – having had half of Motherwell & Wishaw since 1997 and two seats before that.
The added areas have different political and social characteristics from the established Motherwell and Wishaw portions of the seat. In the 2022 South Lanarkshire elections for example, the SNP’s 33% in Clydesdale West was outstripped by Labour’s 38%, and the Conservatives also did better than anywhere within the present boundaries, with 23%. The order of the parties was the same in Clydesdale North, although only small part of the ward is to be included here.
Overall the boundary changes will modify this constituency’s demographic characteristics. At the time of the 2011 Census (although the new housing developments will have reduced the figure a little) Motherwell & Wishaw had one of the highest fifteen proportions of social rented housing in the United Kingdom, over 37% - fourth highest in Scotland after three Glasgow seats, a very high ranking considering the tradition of the ‘council hoose’ north of the border. In the Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig ward, for example, over 50% of all housing was still in the social rented sector. In Motherwell North, much of which is now to be removed, the proportion was over one-third. But in the Clydesdale additions, it was well under 30%. The existing seat also has a very high percentage of residents with no educational qualifications and very few with degrees: fewer than 20% in most of Motherwell and Wishaw, but nearer 30% in Clydesdale North. In Motherwell and Wishaw wards there were overall slightly more Catholics than Protestants, largely because of a heavy Catholic plurality in Motherwell North. But that ward is partly to be removed, like Bellshill which also has an RC plurality, whereas the Clydesdale wards are merely 10% Catholic. Finally, Motherwell is itself a very ‘Scottish’ town, and the seat did have the fourth highest proportion born in Scotland, well over 90%. However the percentage born in England, say, was over twice that in the Clydesdale segment as in any Motherwell or Wishaw ward.
The impact of the South Lanarkshire / Upper Clydesdale element politically would not change the notional 2019 result much. But remembering that 367 vote lead in 2017, it will, if only slightly, probably make it slightly easier for Labour one day to regain the seat; and Labour’s chances of having an overall majority in the Westminster Commons again will be greatly enhanced if they can manage to win some more Scottish constituencies.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.6% 409/650
Owner-occupied 54.8% 544/650
Private rented 6.9% 645/650
Social rented 37.6% 14/650
White 97.5% 182/650
Black 0.3% 484/650
Asian 2.0% 362/650
Christian 68.5% 5/59
Born in Scotland 92.7% 4/650
Managerial & professional 24.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8%
Degree level 17.5% 579/650
No qualifications 33.2% 36/650
Students 6.6% 358/650
2022 Census
Details not yet available
General Election 2019: Motherwell and Wishaw
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Marion Fellows 20,622 46.4 +7.9
Labour Angela Feeney 14,354 32.3 -5.5
Conservative Meghan Gallacher 7,150 16.1 -4.1
Liberal Democrats Christopher Wilson 1,675 3.8 +1.6
UKIP Neil Wilson 619 1.4 +0.1
SNP Majority 6,268 14.1 +13.4
2019 electorate 68,856
Turnout 44,420 64.6 +3.1
SNP hold
Swing 6.7 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke will consist of
78.2% of Motherwell & Wishaw
22.5% of Lanark & Hamilton East
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/motherwell_wishaw_and_carluke.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 20638 | 45.9% |
| Lab | 12344 | 27.5% |
| Con | 9537 | 21.2% |
| LD | 1781 | 4.0% |
| Oth | 619 | 1.4% |
| | ||
| Majority | 8294 | 18.5% |
