Post by Robert Waller on Sept 26, 2023 12:05:36 GMT
Hazel Grove is one of the longest standing Conservative versus Liberal (Democrat) marginal constituencies. Since its creation before the February 1974 election it has been won by the Tories eight times, and they have lost on five occasions – and it might be added that the seat was carved out of the lion’s share of the former oversized Cheadle seat, which had itself elected the Liberal Michael Winstanley in 1966. Dr Winstanley clearly thought the Hazel Grove section was the better for his party, and returned to the Commons in its inaugural contest of February 1974.
Hazel Grove was one of the two Liberal losses in the second general election of 1974, and it was then held by the courtly Tom Arnold for the Conservatives in the next five elections, all by perilously small majorities except for 1979. Though still only fifty years of age, Arnold retired before the 1997 disaster for his party, when Andrew Stunell gained it with a very comfortable margin. Stunell himself was also not defeated, and the candidate who replaced him, Lisa Smart, was the one beaten when the seat returned to Conservative allegiance in 2015. WiIliam Wragg then won three times in four years, his majority slightly dropping each time – 6,000, 5,000, 4,000 … Hazel Grove must still be ranked as a top grade Liberal Democrat target. It is highly likely to change hands once again between the two competitive parties in the next general election, probably in 2024.
The seat consists of part of the outermost ring of Greater Manchester and indeed of the Stockport metropolitan borough – its south eastern periphery towards Macclesfield in Cheshire and High Peak in Derbyshire. This is not a very ‘metropolitan’ area and its tone is far from ‘big city’ – for example there was real resentment here when the whole of Greater Manchester was given Tier 3 status for Covid restrictions in late 2020. Hazel Grove itself is ‘outer suburban’, situated in commuting territory on the rail line in from Buxton to Manchester. Bredbury, Romiley and Woodley are slightly more down-market suburbs with some characteristics of small independent communities. Marple definitely has the feel of separate small town, even with some bohemian tendencies, a little like Hebden Bridge in the Calder Valley. There is also already one ward which could be described as part of the town of Stockport itself, Offerton, which also covers the Great Moor and Stepping Hill neighbourhoods; a large number of people will have ‘born Stockport’ on forms due to the large maternity unit in Stepping Hill Hospital in the corner of Offerton ward.
All wards currently in the seat elected Liberal Democrat councillors in the most recent local elections in May 2023 (with ward boundary changes for that year), although the representation of Offerton and Bredbury & Woodley were shared – in each case one LD and two Labour. In Offerton, rhough, the Lib Dem finished top of the poll. To find a solitary Conservative win, one has to go back to May 2016 when the Liberal Democrats lost Marple South by a mere 23 votes. Why, then, have the Conservatives won a hat trick of victories in the last three contests for representation in the Commons?
A number of reasons can be adduced. In 2015 Stunell’s personal vote (usually significant in Liberal/LD held seats) disappeared and the party was punished for its status as junior coalition member; tactical voting was therefore reduced as Labour’s share went up by 5%, almost as much as the Conservative’s did. In 2017 the Labour vote went up again, and Wragg benefited from the absence of a UKIP candidate in an election affected by the post referendum EU issue. 2019 was even more dominated by ‘Brexit’, and in a contest confined to the three main parties Wragg’s 49% share mobilized most of the estimated 52% leave vote in Hazel Grove. That ‘leave’ majority should not be too much of a surprise considering the seat’s demographics. This is one of the constituencies with a much higher than average proportion born in England (93.7%) and with a UK passport (83.4%, in the top fifty). It is also in the top decile for one person pensioner households and owner-occupation. There are therefore solid conservative – and Conservative – characteristics to counterbalance the long local Liberal tradition.
Nevertheless, as time passes and the impact of EU exit issues fade, it is likely that the Liberal Democrat challenge in the next general election will strengthen. It is well seated now in over half a century of contention at parliamentary level and more than that, even dominance, in the municipal arena. Overall the sum of the voting across the Hazel Grove constituency in 2023 was very clear in its message Conservative 17%. Labour 20%, Liberal Democrat 47%.
In the boundary changes confirmed by the Commission’s final report in June 2023 one ward is added from Stockport, Manor. This is a ward that covers territory east of the A6 a little further in to Stockport town centre than Offerton. It is centred on the Little Moor neighbourhood around Hempshawe Lane and Turncroft Lane. Needless to say, here in urban Stockport both Little Moor, and Great Moor in Offerton ward are very much things of the past (although the Peak District hills are very much on the edge of other parts of the Hazel Grove seat, for example beyond Mellor and Compstall in Marple North ward). We have to go back even further than in other wards in this seat to find the last Conservative victory in Manor ward – 1975. Since then it has alternated between Labour wins (1976-86, 1992-98, 2011, 2016-23) and Liberal Democrats (1987-91, 2000-10, 2012-15). In May 2023 Labour took all three seats in Manor, but just by 40% to 34% for the LDs. The Tories only got 7.5%, and its accession will clearly further help the Lib Dems, especially if it starts to vote tactically in the next general election.
The era of electoral battles, and of changes of victor, in Hazel Grove are unlikely to be over. In November 2022 William Wragg (aged 34 at the time) announced his retirement at the next general election. The loss of any incumbency vote will further add to the Tories’ problems. The evidence – of opinion polls, of local elections, of many political news issues and analyses - all suggests that this is one of the most likely LD gains next time; and it might not be close. Andrew Stunell gained Hazel Grove with a majority of 11,814 in 1997, and another five figure lead is not an impossibility.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.3% 121/575
Owner occupied 76.1% 41/575
Private rented 11.7% 559/575
Social rented 12.2% 419/575
White 94.4% 207/575
Black 0.6% 421/575
Asian 2.6% 357/575
Managerial & professional 37.1% 171/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.1% 383/575
Degree level 33.4% 248/575
No qualifications 15.8% 386/575
Students 4.6% 475/650
General Election 2019: Hazel Grove
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative William Wragg 21,592 48.8 +3.3
Liberal Democrats Lisa Smart 17,169 38.8 +5.9
Labour Tony Wilson 5,508 12.4 -8.1
C Majority 4,423 10.0 -2.0
Turnout 44,269 67.6 -2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 1.3 Conservative to Lib Dem
Boundary Changes
Hazel Grove will consist of
100% of Hazel Grove
16.2% of Stockport
The proposed boundary changes add the Manor ward from Stockport. This is a Labour/Lib Dem marginal at the local level, probably fairly solid Labour in general elections. The main effect on the notional result is to increase the Labour share but this obviously means more tactical votes available to the Lib Dems so this can only be good for them. Pete Whitehead
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_236_Hazel%20Grove_Landscape.pdf
Notional Result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
Hazel Grove was one of the two Liberal losses in the second general election of 1974, and it was then held by the courtly Tom Arnold for the Conservatives in the next five elections, all by perilously small majorities except for 1979. Though still only fifty years of age, Arnold retired before the 1997 disaster for his party, when Andrew Stunell gained it with a very comfortable margin. Stunell himself was also not defeated, and the candidate who replaced him, Lisa Smart, was the one beaten when the seat returned to Conservative allegiance in 2015. WiIliam Wragg then won three times in four years, his majority slightly dropping each time – 6,000, 5,000, 4,000 … Hazel Grove must still be ranked as a top grade Liberal Democrat target. It is highly likely to change hands once again between the two competitive parties in the next general election, probably in 2024.
The seat consists of part of the outermost ring of Greater Manchester and indeed of the Stockport metropolitan borough – its south eastern periphery towards Macclesfield in Cheshire and High Peak in Derbyshire. This is not a very ‘metropolitan’ area and its tone is far from ‘big city’ – for example there was real resentment here when the whole of Greater Manchester was given Tier 3 status for Covid restrictions in late 2020. Hazel Grove itself is ‘outer suburban’, situated in commuting territory on the rail line in from Buxton to Manchester. Bredbury, Romiley and Woodley are slightly more down-market suburbs with some characteristics of small independent communities. Marple definitely has the feel of separate small town, even with some bohemian tendencies, a little like Hebden Bridge in the Calder Valley. There is also already one ward which could be described as part of the town of Stockport itself, Offerton, which also covers the Great Moor and Stepping Hill neighbourhoods; a large number of people will have ‘born Stockport’ on forms due to the large maternity unit in Stepping Hill Hospital in the corner of Offerton ward.
All wards currently in the seat elected Liberal Democrat councillors in the most recent local elections in May 2023 (with ward boundary changes for that year), although the representation of Offerton and Bredbury & Woodley were shared – in each case one LD and two Labour. In Offerton, rhough, the Lib Dem finished top of the poll. To find a solitary Conservative win, one has to go back to May 2016 when the Liberal Democrats lost Marple South by a mere 23 votes. Why, then, have the Conservatives won a hat trick of victories in the last three contests for representation in the Commons?
A number of reasons can be adduced. In 2015 Stunell’s personal vote (usually significant in Liberal/LD held seats) disappeared and the party was punished for its status as junior coalition member; tactical voting was therefore reduced as Labour’s share went up by 5%, almost as much as the Conservative’s did. In 2017 the Labour vote went up again, and Wragg benefited from the absence of a UKIP candidate in an election affected by the post referendum EU issue. 2019 was even more dominated by ‘Brexit’, and in a contest confined to the three main parties Wragg’s 49% share mobilized most of the estimated 52% leave vote in Hazel Grove. That ‘leave’ majority should not be too much of a surprise considering the seat’s demographics. This is one of the constituencies with a much higher than average proportion born in England (93.7%) and with a UK passport (83.4%, in the top fifty). It is also in the top decile for one person pensioner households and owner-occupation. There are therefore solid conservative – and Conservative – characteristics to counterbalance the long local Liberal tradition.
Nevertheless, as time passes and the impact of EU exit issues fade, it is likely that the Liberal Democrat challenge in the next general election will strengthen. It is well seated now in over half a century of contention at parliamentary level and more than that, even dominance, in the municipal arena. Overall the sum of the voting across the Hazel Grove constituency in 2023 was very clear in its message Conservative 17%. Labour 20%, Liberal Democrat 47%.
In the boundary changes confirmed by the Commission’s final report in June 2023 one ward is added from Stockport, Manor. This is a ward that covers territory east of the A6 a little further in to Stockport town centre than Offerton. It is centred on the Little Moor neighbourhood around Hempshawe Lane and Turncroft Lane. Needless to say, here in urban Stockport both Little Moor, and Great Moor in Offerton ward are very much things of the past (although the Peak District hills are very much on the edge of other parts of the Hazel Grove seat, for example beyond Mellor and Compstall in Marple North ward). We have to go back even further than in other wards in this seat to find the last Conservative victory in Manor ward – 1975. Since then it has alternated between Labour wins (1976-86, 1992-98, 2011, 2016-23) and Liberal Democrats (1987-91, 2000-10, 2012-15). In May 2023 Labour took all three seats in Manor, but just by 40% to 34% for the LDs. The Tories only got 7.5%, and its accession will clearly further help the Lib Dems, especially if it starts to vote tactically in the next general election.
The era of electoral battles, and of changes of victor, in Hazel Grove are unlikely to be over. In November 2022 William Wragg (aged 34 at the time) announced his retirement at the next general election. The loss of any incumbency vote will further add to the Tories’ problems. The evidence – of opinion polls, of local elections, of many political news issues and analyses - all suggests that this is one of the most likely LD gains next time; and it might not be close. Andrew Stunell gained Hazel Grove with a majority of 11,814 in 1997, and another five figure lead is not an impossibility.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 23.3% 121/575
Owner occupied 76.1% 41/575
Private rented 11.7% 559/575
Social rented 12.2% 419/575
White 94.4% 207/575
Black 0.6% 421/575
Asian 2.6% 357/575
Managerial & professional 37.1% 171/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.1% 383/575
Degree level 33.4% 248/575
No qualifications 15.8% 386/575
Students 4.6% 475/650
General Election 2019: Hazel Grove
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative William Wragg 21,592 48.8 +3.3
Liberal Democrats Lisa Smart 17,169 38.8 +5.9
Labour Tony Wilson 5,508 12.4 -8.1
C Majority 4,423 10.0 -2.0
Turnout 44,269 67.6 -2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 1.3 Conservative to Lib Dem
Boundary Changes
Hazel Grove will consist of
100% of Hazel Grove
16.2% of Stockport
The proposed boundary changes add the Manor ward from Stockport. This is a Labour/Lib Dem marginal at the local level, probably fairly solid Labour in general elections. The main effect on the notional result is to increase the Labour share but this obviously means more tactical votes available to the Lib Dems so this can only be good for them. Pete Whitehead
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_236_Hazel%20Grove_Landscape.pdf
Notional Result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 22994 | 45.6% |
| LD | 18775 | 37.2% |
| Lab | 8208 | 16.3% |
| Brexit | 310 | 0.6% |
| Green | 154 | 0.3% |
| Majority | 4219 | 8.4% |
