John Kerry wins in 2004

[weld]

John Kerry picks a prominent Ohio Democrat to be VP e.g. Marcy Kaptur, and wins the state. Bush follows his father in only serving one term.

The final result is Kerry 271 Electoral Votes, Bush 267. A reversal of the 2000 result.

Everything else stays the same. Tom Daschle still loses in South Dakota, Arlen Specter still ekes out a win in his primary in Pennsylvania etc.

[stb12]

Chief Justice situation would be interesting

[wysall]

Looking forward to future elections the Republicans would almost certainly expand their House majority in 2006; they would also retain the Senate but I think they could still lose Ohio and Pennsylvania. Assuming the recession happens on schedule Kerry would lose in 2008 to whoever the Republican candidate is. I think it quite likely that the recovery would be even slower so there would be another one-term president before the Democrats regain the presidency in 2012 and bring that sequence to an end.

This would, I think, preserve much of the Democratic strength they lost. There would be nothing like the 2010 midterms, the racist vote would instead probably have a #populist Southern Democrat to vote for in 2012 and 2016, and there would be no Trump candidacy to obliterate them in the Midwest.

[The Bishop]

Must be a decent chance that Obama still gets to be POTUS in that scenario, just four years later than IRL.

[wysall]

Sept 26, 2023 9:52:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Must be a decent chance that Obama still gets to be POTUS in that scenario, just four years later than IRL.

I doubt it. The atmosphere he won the nomination in just wouldn’t exist in this 2012 where, rather than eight years of Bush, you had Kerry barely win (while losing the popular vote) followed by a Republican and an economy still struggling to recover.

[stb12]

Obama’s speech at the 2004 DNC is widely seen to have propelled him to national prominence early, he hadn’t even won his Senate seat yet at that point but was already being talked about as a future President

So it seems inevitable that he’d at least have been a contender at a future point if not 2008, but of course under different circumstances may not have quite made it

[nyx]

I could imagine something like
John Kerry 2005–2009
John McCain 2009–2017
Barack Obama 2017–2025
With Obama probably tacking left a bit to appeal to progressives like Biden ended up doing.

[adlai52]

Sept 26, 2023 10:18:07 GMT wysall said:

Sept 26, 2023 9:52:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Must be a decent chance that Obama still gets to be POTUS in that scenario, just four years later than IRL.

I doubt it. The atmosphere he won the nomination in just wouldn’t exist in this 2012 where, rather than eight years of Bush, you had Kerry barely win (while losing the popular vote) followed by a Republican and an economy still struggling to recover.

Now there was a 'southern populist' candidate who would have been in prime position to run against a weakened republican in 2012...

[The Bishop]

Well perhaps, apart from the whole "revealing hmself to be a total douchebag as a person" thing.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Pollster Zogby did call it for Kerry on the basis of faulty exit polls,leading to plenty of internet conspiracies that Bush cheated him

[adlai52]

Sept 27, 2023 10:14:14 GMT The Bishop said:

Well perhaps, apart from the whole "revealing hmself to be a total douchebag as a person" thing.

I mean that would inevitably come out as it did in reality... but I'd be interested to see how far he would go before being exposed (a-la Garry Hart... although that's very unfair on Hart).

[weld]

Sept 27, 2023 10:20:38 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Pollster Zogby did call it for Kerry on the basis of faulty exit polls,leading to plenty of internet conspiracies that Bush cheated him

Many Democrats in Congress didn’t accept Bush won Ohio.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 28, 2023 3:13:07 GMT weld said:

Sept 27, 2023 10:20:38 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Pollster Zogby did call it for Kerry on the basis of faulty exit polls,leading to plenty of internet conspiracies that Bush cheated him

Many Democrats in Congress didn’t accept Bush won Ohio.

31 members of the House (out of 201), and one member of the Senate (out of 49). Not remotely the same scale as the 2021 voting.

[weld]

Sept 28, 2023 8:33:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Sept 28, 2023 3:13:07 GMT weld said:

Many Democrats in Congress didn’t accept Bush won Ohio.

31 members of the House (out of 201), and one member of the Senate (out of 49). Not remotely the same scale as the 2021 voting.

100% agree. Not trying whataboutery here.