Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 25, 2023 20:16:32 GMT
Aberdeen North is a burgh constituency covering the northern half of the Aberdeen City council area. Aberdeen is Scotland's third largest city, known for its grey granite buildings, long beach and oil industry, with Aberdeen Airport being the busiest heliport in the world owing to its role in transporting oil workers to North Sea rigs.
The Aberdeen North seat is populated by many compact inter-war and post-war estates like Northfield, Mastrick, Woodside, Tillydrone, Seaton, Cummings Park, Sheddocksley and Bucksburn, all of which have high rates of deprivation and are strongly supportive of the SNP, contrasting pockets of affluence in Hilton, Raeden, Midstocket, Rosemount, Donmouth, Kingswells and the student areas of Old Aberdeen and the Hillhead of Seaton.
Boundary changes here improve the SNP's prospects despite replacing the more pro-independence inner city areas of George Street and Harbour with the less SNP-voting commuter suburbs of Dyce, Danestone and Bridge of Don in the northern periphery of Aberdeen, where the Conservatives form the main opposition.
In the south-east of the seat heading north from the City Centre along King Street, the Old Aberdeen, Powis and Sunnybank areas based around the University of Aberdeen campus contain a maze of fairly attractive terraced flats mostly populated by students, while east of here heading out towards the North Sea, the Seaton area contains more run-down tenements and high-rise flats. North, the Hillhead of Seaton verging onto the River Don has cobbled streets and student-inhabited former townhouses, while north-west is the more deprived ex-council estate of Tillydrone and south-west is the run-down ex-council flats of Froghall. Old Aberdeen is a historic area with pretty cobbled streets leading up towards Seaton Park and the 13th Century Brig o'Balgownie which spans across the River Don and is Scotland's oldest bridge whose construction was allegedly commissioned by Robert the Bruce. In the east, the ward takes in a good stretch of Aberdeen's beach.
The social profile of the corresponding Old Aberdeen, Seaton & Tillydrone ward is very divided between students coming from more middle-class backgrounds and social housing in large parts of the seat. This is reflected in the 2011 census, where 54% of households here were socially renting, the highest in Aberdeen. Nearly 40% of the ward's population were students. Furthermore, 30% of residents were not born in the United Kingdom. One online poll by The Tab suggested that the University of Aberdeen was among the most Conservative-voting universities in the UK at the 2019 snap general election, with 33% of students saying they would vote SNP to 27% Conservative, 18% Labour, 9% Liberal Democrat, 6% Green and 3% Brexit Party.
At the 2022 local election, the ward as a whole voted 43% SNP, 26% Labour, 11% Conservative and 7% Green, ranging from a 37% vote for the SNP in Old Aberdeen, Sunnybank, Powis and Froghall polling district to a 53% SNP vote in Seaton North. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, my estimates point to a marginal 50% Yes vote in the ward, ranging from a higher No vote in the student areas of Old Aberdeen and Hillhead of Seaton to a higher Yes vote in the Seaton area.
Heading west of here is Aberdeen Royal Infirmary and a mixture of granite bungalows and townhouses and more working class council estates north of the hospital. This includes better-off apartments, townhouses and bungalows in the Hilton area in contrast to the highly deprived council estates of Woodside, Stockethill, Rosehill and Cornhill in the north, west and south-west of the ward. At the 2011 census, 45% of houses were owned and 41% socially rented in the overlapping Hilton, Woodside & Stockethill ward, reflecting the socially mixed nature of the ward, with 13% of the population being students.
Voting behaviour in the ward is very similar to neighbouring Old Aberdeen, Seaton & Tillydrone, with the SNP winning 44% at last year's council election to Labour's 25% and the Conservatives' 17%. Unsurprisingly, polling districts around Hilton had a lower SNP vote of 38%, in contrast to a 54% SNP vote in Woodside East. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, I estimate that the ward as a whole voted 52% against independence, carried by a stronger No vote in the Hilton area.
South of the hospital and towards the city centre, the bungalows and townhouses of Raeden and Midstocket share more similar characteristics to Aberdeen's highly prosperous south-western neighbourhoods, with the area being named the second least deprived part of Scotland in 2016. Heading east of here and closer to the city centre, you enter the Rosemount area, where larger bungalows, townhouses and flats give way to more affordable flats. South, towards the city centre, the profile of the ward becomes more socially deprived with more run-down inner city tenements in Gilcolmston from the north side of Aberdeen's main shopping street, Union Street.
Electorally, Midstocket & Rosemount ward has traditionally had a stronger Conservative vote than other parts of the city, particularly around Raeden and Midstocket, and it was the ward of former Vote UK regular Fraser Forsyth (Cons.) until his resignation in 2015 to move down to York with his family. At the 2022 council election, the ward voted 38% SNP, 24.5% Conservative and 21.5% Labour, with Raeden being the strongest part of the ward for the Conservatives on 37% of the vote to the SNP's 25% and Gilcolmston being the SNP's best area on 46% of the vote. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, my estimates point to a 57% No vote in the ward as a whole.
Moving north-west of here, towards the outskirts of the city, Northfield & Mastrick North ward is Aberdeen's most socially deprived area, dominated by council estates like Northfield, Cummings Park, Middlefield, Heathryfold and Mastrick. All-but-one datazone in the ward is more deprived than the national average and 78% number among the 30% most deprived areas in Scotland. Substance abuse is an issue in this area, and it is not a surprise that this is the SNP's safest ward in Aberdeen having returned a 53% vote for the SNP at the 2022 council election to 26% for Labour and 10% for the Conservatives. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated to have voted 57% Yes to independence.
South of the ward is yet more deprived ex-council estates including the southern part of Mastrick and the Sheddocksley estate bordering onto the rolling hills of Aberdeen's outer periphery and Summerhill to the south. These areas join the highly affluent suburb of Kingswells west of Aberdeen as part of the Kingswells, Sheddocksley & Summerhill ward which, since 2017, has become a surprising area of strength for the Liberal Democrats and the only ward in this constituency which had a party other than the SNP out in front at the 2017 and 2022 local elections. Kingswells sits independently from the main part of the Aberdeen urban area between Aberdeen proper and the wealthy suburban town of Westhill in Aberdeenshire. At the 2022 council election, the ward voted 37% Lib Dem, 33% SNP, 14% Labour and 13% Conservative. This was helped by a 49% Liberal Democrat vote to 20% SNP vote in Kingswells, and quite surprising 43% Lib Dem vote to 34% SNP vote in western parts of Summerhill and Sheddocksley, in contrast to a 51% SNP vote in Mastrick South and Sheddocksley East polling districts. The ward was the most anti-independence part of Aberdeen North, voting approximately 65% against independence, with an 80% No vote in Kingswells.
North of the Northfield area and towards Dyce, you enter the former market village of Bucksburn. From here towards Dyce, there is a sense of distance from the rest of Aberdeen. Bucksburn is very much a working-class area whose main road north is lined with rougher tenements, with a high proportion of ex-council houses in surrounding streets. Heading along this road, North of here, the Stoneywood area blends ex-council houses with more well-off bungalows and semi-detached houses including a number of newly built estates. Further north, Dyce takes on an altogether more well-off suburban character, with some ex-council houses to the east. East of Bucksburn and across the River Don, the Danestone area is also very suburban in character, with all datazones here being among the 10% least deprived in Scotland. Many new build housing estates and industrial estates have been constructed in the corresponding Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone ward, particularly in areas west of the city's airport just west of Dyce including the Kirkhill industrial estate and new housing around Craibstone. The ward contains the P&J Live arena, which has a capacity of 15,000 people, in addition the North Sea offices of Oil & Gas giants like BP.
Dyce, Danestone and Stoneywood have joined Aberdeen North having previously formed part of Gordon, a constituency which was represented by the SNP's Alex Salmond until being won by the Conservatives in 2017, then regained by the SNP's Richard Thomson by just 819 votes in 2019. Previously, Gordon constituency had been represented by Liberal Democrat MP Malcolm Bruce from 1983-2015, and in local government elections the Dyce, Stoneywood had Danestone had been represented by the Liberal Democrats from 1980-2012.
At the 2022 local council election, Dyce, Danestone & Bucksburn ward voted 41% SNP, 26% Conservative, 18% Labour and 9% Liberal Democrat, with the Conservatives placing first in Dyce South with 38% of the vote to the SNP's 31% and the SNP performing strongly in Bucksburn East on 49% of the vote. A local government by-election in February saw the SNP vote fall back to 30.5% with Labour taking 26% of First Preferences ahead of the Conservatives on 25%. Labour managed a surprise win in the ward through Conservative second preferences. In the by-election, the Conservatives were ahead in Dyce and Danestone, and the SNP topping the poll in Bucksburn and Stoneywood. At the 2014 independence referendum, the Dyce, Danestone & Bucksburn ward is estimated to have voted 56% No, with Dyce and Danestone voting 61% No compared to Bucksburn voting 52% Yes and Stoneywood voting 51% Yes.
The final part of this ward is the Bridge of Don ward which covers mid-market suburban areas in the north-east of the constituency just north of the River Don. The Bridge of Don area includes various industrial estates as well as Gordon Barracks, the regimental headquarters of the Gordon Highlanders. The suburb joins Aberdeen North having previously formed part of the Gordon constituency at Westminster. Like Dyce, Danestone and Stoneywood, communities in the area had voted Liberal Democrat since the 1980s, until the SNP's landslide win in 2015. At the 2022 local election, Bridge of Don ward had a 40% vote for the SNP, 29% for the Conservatives, 15% for Labour and 11% for the Liberal Democrats. The Middleton polling district voted 39% Conservative to 31% SNP, with all remaining areas voting SNP, the strongest of which being Parkway North with a 47% SNP vote. At the independence referendum, Bridge of Don ward was estimated to have voted 58% No.
Overall, Aberdeen North's social profile is very mixed. It contains affluent areas in patches of the more urban portion of the constituency, and more affluence in the suburbs of Danestone, Dyce, Kingswell and Bridge of Don on the outskirts of the Aberdeen City area, contrasting areas of deprivation across much of the urban parts of the constituency heading towards Aberdeen city centre.
The Aberdeen North constituency had been represented by Labour continuously from 1935-2015, and before that it was Labour from 1918-1931, voting Unionist on one occasion in 1931. Before 1918, Aberdeen North and its predecessor seat had been represented by the Whigs and Liberals continuously from the 1831 general election onwards, electing Radical George Thomson in 1852. In the Scottish Parliament, the Aberdeen North, and later renamed Aberdeen Donside, constituency was represented by Labour's Elaine Thomson from 1999-2003, and following that by the SNP's Brian Adam from 2003 until his death in 2013, then disgraced SNP MSP Mark McDonald who resigned from the party in 2017 following sexual misconduct allegations, and the SNP's Jackie Dunbar who was elected in 2021 with a 9,026 vote majority ahead of the Conservatives. The Donside constituency covers peripheral areas including Northfield, Mastrick, Summerhill, Sheddocksley, Kingswells, Bridge of Don, Danestone, Dyce, Stoneywood and Bucksburn, with inner city areas forming part of the Aberdeen Central constituency. Aberdeen Central was represented by Labour's Lewis Macdonald from 1999-2011, and since 2011 it has been represented by the SNP's Kevin Stewart, who won his seat with a 6,594 vote majority ahead of the Conservatives.
At Westminster, the SNP's Kirsty Blackman has represented this seat since 2015, winning it with 54% of the vote and a 12,670 vote majority ahead of the Conservatives in 2019 and making the SNP's safest seat.
Boundary changes quite neatly leave the SNP as the single largest party in all parts of this constituency apart from the highly affluent areas of Dyce South, Middleton, Kingswells and Raedon, and result in opposition parties being divided between Labour being the main opposition to the SNP in inner city wards and the Conservatives being the second-largest party in outer suburban areas, ultimately making the seat ever-safer for the SNP's Kirsty Blackman, with Labour being the more realistic competitor to the SNP here than the Conservatives based on the current political climate.
2014 independence referendum estimate:
NO 55% (just under)
YES 45% (just over)
The Aberdeen North seat is populated by many compact inter-war and post-war estates like Northfield, Mastrick, Woodside, Tillydrone, Seaton, Cummings Park, Sheddocksley and Bucksburn, all of which have high rates of deprivation and are strongly supportive of the SNP, contrasting pockets of affluence in Hilton, Raeden, Midstocket, Rosemount, Donmouth, Kingswells and the student areas of Old Aberdeen and the Hillhead of Seaton.
Boundary changes here improve the SNP's prospects despite replacing the more pro-independence inner city areas of George Street and Harbour with the less SNP-voting commuter suburbs of Dyce, Danestone and Bridge of Don in the northern periphery of Aberdeen, where the Conservatives form the main opposition.
In the south-east of the seat heading north from the City Centre along King Street, the Old Aberdeen, Powis and Sunnybank areas based around the University of Aberdeen campus contain a maze of fairly attractive terraced flats mostly populated by students, while east of here heading out towards the North Sea, the Seaton area contains more run-down tenements and high-rise flats. North, the Hillhead of Seaton verging onto the River Don has cobbled streets and student-inhabited former townhouses, while north-west is the more deprived ex-council estate of Tillydrone and south-west is the run-down ex-council flats of Froghall. Old Aberdeen is a historic area with pretty cobbled streets leading up towards Seaton Park and the 13th Century Brig o'Balgownie which spans across the River Don and is Scotland's oldest bridge whose construction was allegedly commissioned by Robert the Bruce. In the east, the ward takes in a good stretch of Aberdeen's beach.
The social profile of the corresponding Old Aberdeen, Seaton & Tillydrone ward is very divided between students coming from more middle-class backgrounds and social housing in large parts of the seat. This is reflected in the 2011 census, where 54% of households here were socially renting, the highest in Aberdeen. Nearly 40% of the ward's population were students. Furthermore, 30% of residents were not born in the United Kingdom. One online poll by The Tab suggested that the University of Aberdeen was among the most Conservative-voting universities in the UK at the 2019 snap general election, with 33% of students saying they would vote SNP to 27% Conservative, 18% Labour, 9% Liberal Democrat, 6% Green and 3% Brexit Party.
At the 2022 local election, the ward as a whole voted 43% SNP, 26% Labour, 11% Conservative and 7% Green, ranging from a 37% vote for the SNP in Old Aberdeen, Sunnybank, Powis and Froghall polling district to a 53% SNP vote in Seaton North. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, my estimates point to a marginal 50% Yes vote in the ward, ranging from a higher No vote in the student areas of Old Aberdeen and Hillhead of Seaton to a higher Yes vote in the Seaton area.
Heading west of here is Aberdeen Royal Infirmary and a mixture of granite bungalows and townhouses and more working class council estates north of the hospital. This includes better-off apartments, townhouses and bungalows in the Hilton area in contrast to the highly deprived council estates of Woodside, Stockethill, Rosehill and Cornhill in the north, west and south-west of the ward. At the 2011 census, 45% of houses were owned and 41% socially rented in the overlapping Hilton, Woodside & Stockethill ward, reflecting the socially mixed nature of the ward, with 13% of the population being students.
Voting behaviour in the ward is very similar to neighbouring Old Aberdeen, Seaton & Tillydrone, with the SNP winning 44% at last year's council election to Labour's 25% and the Conservatives' 17%. Unsurprisingly, polling districts around Hilton had a lower SNP vote of 38%, in contrast to a 54% SNP vote in Woodside East. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, I estimate that the ward as a whole voted 52% against independence, carried by a stronger No vote in the Hilton area.
South of the hospital and towards the city centre, the bungalows and townhouses of Raeden and Midstocket share more similar characteristics to Aberdeen's highly prosperous south-western neighbourhoods, with the area being named the second least deprived part of Scotland in 2016. Heading east of here and closer to the city centre, you enter the Rosemount area, where larger bungalows, townhouses and flats give way to more affordable flats. South, towards the city centre, the profile of the ward becomes more socially deprived with more run-down inner city tenements in Gilcolmston from the north side of Aberdeen's main shopping street, Union Street.
Electorally, Midstocket & Rosemount ward has traditionally had a stronger Conservative vote than other parts of the city, particularly around Raeden and Midstocket, and it was the ward of former Vote UK regular Fraser Forsyth (Cons.) until his resignation in 2015 to move down to York with his family. At the 2022 council election, the ward voted 38% SNP, 24.5% Conservative and 21.5% Labour, with Raeden being the strongest part of the ward for the Conservatives on 37% of the vote to the SNP's 25% and Gilcolmston being the SNP's best area on 46% of the vote. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, my estimates point to a 57% No vote in the ward as a whole.
Moving north-west of here, towards the outskirts of the city, Northfield & Mastrick North ward is Aberdeen's most socially deprived area, dominated by council estates like Northfield, Cummings Park, Middlefield, Heathryfold and Mastrick. All-but-one datazone in the ward is more deprived than the national average and 78% number among the 30% most deprived areas in Scotland. Substance abuse is an issue in this area, and it is not a surprise that this is the SNP's safest ward in Aberdeen having returned a 53% vote for the SNP at the 2022 council election to 26% for Labour and 10% for the Conservatives. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated to have voted 57% Yes to independence.
South of the ward is yet more deprived ex-council estates including the southern part of Mastrick and the Sheddocksley estate bordering onto the rolling hills of Aberdeen's outer periphery and Summerhill to the south. These areas join the highly affluent suburb of Kingswells west of Aberdeen as part of the Kingswells, Sheddocksley & Summerhill ward which, since 2017, has become a surprising area of strength for the Liberal Democrats and the only ward in this constituency which had a party other than the SNP out in front at the 2017 and 2022 local elections. Kingswells sits independently from the main part of the Aberdeen urban area between Aberdeen proper and the wealthy suburban town of Westhill in Aberdeenshire. At the 2022 council election, the ward voted 37% Lib Dem, 33% SNP, 14% Labour and 13% Conservative. This was helped by a 49% Liberal Democrat vote to 20% SNP vote in Kingswells, and quite surprising 43% Lib Dem vote to 34% SNP vote in western parts of Summerhill and Sheddocksley, in contrast to a 51% SNP vote in Mastrick South and Sheddocksley East polling districts. The ward was the most anti-independence part of Aberdeen North, voting approximately 65% against independence, with an 80% No vote in Kingswells.
North of the Northfield area and towards Dyce, you enter the former market village of Bucksburn. From here towards Dyce, there is a sense of distance from the rest of Aberdeen. Bucksburn is very much a working-class area whose main road north is lined with rougher tenements, with a high proportion of ex-council houses in surrounding streets. Heading along this road, North of here, the Stoneywood area blends ex-council houses with more well-off bungalows and semi-detached houses including a number of newly built estates. Further north, Dyce takes on an altogether more well-off suburban character, with some ex-council houses to the east. East of Bucksburn and across the River Don, the Danestone area is also very suburban in character, with all datazones here being among the 10% least deprived in Scotland. Many new build housing estates and industrial estates have been constructed in the corresponding Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone ward, particularly in areas west of the city's airport just west of Dyce including the Kirkhill industrial estate and new housing around Craibstone. The ward contains the P&J Live arena, which has a capacity of 15,000 people, in addition the North Sea offices of Oil & Gas giants like BP.
Dyce, Danestone and Stoneywood have joined Aberdeen North having previously formed part of Gordon, a constituency which was represented by the SNP's Alex Salmond until being won by the Conservatives in 2017, then regained by the SNP's Richard Thomson by just 819 votes in 2019. Previously, Gordon constituency had been represented by Liberal Democrat MP Malcolm Bruce from 1983-2015, and in local government elections the Dyce, Stoneywood had Danestone had been represented by the Liberal Democrats from 1980-2012.
At the 2022 local council election, Dyce, Danestone & Bucksburn ward voted 41% SNP, 26% Conservative, 18% Labour and 9% Liberal Democrat, with the Conservatives placing first in Dyce South with 38% of the vote to the SNP's 31% and the SNP performing strongly in Bucksburn East on 49% of the vote. A local government by-election in February saw the SNP vote fall back to 30.5% with Labour taking 26% of First Preferences ahead of the Conservatives on 25%. Labour managed a surprise win in the ward through Conservative second preferences. In the by-election, the Conservatives were ahead in Dyce and Danestone, and the SNP topping the poll in Bucksburn and Stoneywood. At the 2014 independence referendum, the Dyce, Danestone & Bucksburn ward is estimated to have voted 56% No, with Dyce and Danestone voting 61% No compared to Bucksburn voting 52% Yes and Stoneywood voting 51% Yes.
The final part of this ward is the Bridge of Don ward which covers mid-market suburban areas in the north-east of the constituency just north of the River Don. The Bridge of Don area includes various industrial estates as well as Gordon Barracks, the regimental headquarters of the Gordon Highlanders. The suburb joins Aberdeen North having previously formed part of the Gordon constituency at Westminster. Like Dyce, Danestone and Stoneywood, communities in the area had voted Liberal Democrat since the 1980s, until the SNP's landslide win in 2015. At the 2022 local election, Bridge of Don ward had a 40% vote for the SNP, 29% for the Conservatives, 15% for Labour and 11% for the Liberal Democrats. The Middleton polling district voted 39% Conservative to 31% SNP, with all remaining areas voting SNP, the strongest of which being Parkway North with a 47% SNP vote. At the independence referendum, Bridge of Don ward was estimated to have voted 58% No.
Overall, Aberdeen North's social profile is very mixed. It contains affluent areas in patches of the more urban portion of the constituency, and more affluence in the suburbs of Danestone, Dyce, Kingswell and Bridge of Don on the outskirts of the Aberdeen City area, contrasting areas of deprivation across much of the urban parts of the constituency heading towards Aberdeen city centre.
The Aberdeen North constituency had been represented by Labour continuously from 1935-2015, and before that it was Labour from 1918-1931, voting Unionist on one occasion in 1931. Before 1918, Aberdeen North and its predecessor seat had been represented by the Whigs and Liberals continuously from the 1831 general election onwards, electing Radical George Thomson in 1852. In the Scottish Parliament, the Aberdeen North, and later renamed Aberdeen Donside, constituency was represented by Labour's Elaine Thomson from 1999-2003, and following that by the SNP's Brian Adam from 2003 until his death in 2013, then disgraced SNP MSP Mark McDonald who resigned from the party in 2017 following sexual misconduct allegations, and the SNP's Jackie Dunbar who was elected in 2021 with a 9,026 vote majority ahead of the Conservatives. The Donside constituency covers peripheral areas including Northfield, Mastrick, Summerhill, Sheddocksley, Kingswells, Bridge of Don, Danestone, Dyce, Stoneywood and Bucksburn, with inner city areas forming part of the Aberdeen Central constituency. Aberdeen Central was represented by Labour's Lewis Macdonald from 1999-2011, and since 2011 it has been represented by the SNP's Kevin Stewart, who won his seat with a 6,594 vote majority ahead of the Conservatives.
At Westminster, the SNP's Kirsty Blackman has represented this seat since 2015, winning it with 54% of the vote and a 12,670 vote majority ahead of the Conservatives in 2019 and making the SNP's safest seat.
Boundary changes quite neatly leave the SNP as the single largest party in all parts of this constituency apart from the highly affluent areas of Dyce South, Middleton, Kingswells and Raedon, and result in opposition parties being divided between Labour being the main opposition to the SNP in inner city wards and the Conservatives being the second-largest party in outer suburban areas, ultimately making the seat ever-safer for the SNP's Kirsty Blackman, with Labour being the more realistic competitor to the SNP here than the Conservatives based on the current political climate.
2014 independence referendum estimate:
NO 55% (just under)
YES 45% (just over)
