Post by batman on Sept 22, 2023 11:55:20 GMT
Edited to take into account the 2024 election result.
MANCHESTER WITHINGTON
Although this constituency has existed since 1918, it has changed considerably first in the area it has covered, and then in its electoral politics. For some decades, it was the only entirely reliably Conservative seat in the city of Manchester (and in fact the only one at all out of the many which then existed in 1945, and from the 1974 elections until this seat fell to Labour in 1987). This was logical enough, as it has pretty much always been the most prosperous of the city's constituencies, even though it is not the one furthest from the city centre; but from the Conservative loss to Labour's Keith Bradley in 1987 to the present day, it has not returned to the Tories, and it would be a brave person who now predicted a return of Conservative tenure in the constituency. It has changed politically beyond all recognition in the intervening few decades.
As well as Withington itself, the seat takes in the areas of Chorlton-cum-Hardy (Manchester actually has another Chorlton, Chorlton-on-Medlock, further in towards the city centre, but it has largely been subsumed by university campuses), Barlow Moor, Didsbury and Old Moat as well as more minor sub-districts. It remains mostly a well-educated middle-class constituency popular with professionals, but does also contain some quite large council estates, almost entirely low-rise and mostly interwar. It also has a substantial student population, although not as large as that in Central or Gorton constituencies. Once upon a time, however, the constituency was more tightly drawn around Withington, and for some years contained only 2 council wards, Withington and Levenshulme (nowadays a very safe Labour ward, but once a largely artisan area which was able to elect Conservative councillors with reasonable regularity) - Levenshulme nowadays is in Gorton & Denton, and in fact was the very last Manchester ward to elect a Labour councillor for the first time, which seems rather counter-intuitive looking at results, especially since the Liberal Democrats' post-coalition collapse after 2010. Didsbury, which today tends to be regarded as the fulcrum of the constituency, was not included until 1974, having been in Manchester Wythenshawe before that; this helps to some extent to explain the Tories' initial series of victories in that constituency, which came to an end with Alf Morris's gain for Labour in 1964, since when the Tories have mostly been nowhere near there or in its successor seat of Wythenshawe & Sale East. Chorlton-cum-Hardy was included until 1950, but for a long time after that was rather surprisingly in the Moss Side constituency, abolished in 1983, where it was the main basis for the once strong Conservative vote that used to exist there too. It seems logical that Withington, Didsbury and Chorlton are now united in a single constituency, because as well as being not too far apart geographically they have quite a lot in common demographically too; they are all what some might think to some extent "trendy" areas, younger in age profile than average, well-educated, and essentially having the character of long-established, but perhaps very slightly scruffy, suburbs. These areas have long since ceased to be favoured by wealthy professionals working in Manchester's financial sector, who nowadays prefer to live slightly further out of town for the most part, as do the perhaps even wealthier Premiership footballers who play for Manchester's two famous teams. Instead, the professionals who live here are much likelier to work in what might at least loosely be described as the public sector, for example in universities and the NHS. These voters have become less and less likely to vote Conservative as the years have passed by and, since 1987, it has been Labour who have for the most part managed to unite their traditional support in more working class Old Moat, plus the council estates elsewhere, with more public sector professional support predominantly in the constituency's other districts. However, their dominance has suffered an interruption, even though that now seems to be at an end, too.
Keith Bradley's initial Labour win in 1987 (it was the one and only gain Labour managed anywhere in the North-West in that election, even Wallasey proving, if only temporarily, elusive) appeared to have an air of finality about it when the party handily increased its majority in 1992, then crushingly defeated the Tories by a margin, astonishing as it seemed at the time, of more than 4 to 1 in 1997. However, this proved rather illusory, as after gaining a rather distant second place in 2001 the Liberal Democrats took advantage of the Labour Government's growing unpopularity particularly among younger voters, to a large degree because of British military action in Iraq, and local campaigner John Leech was able to gain the seat with a spectacular swing, seen also elsewhere in rather similar seats in other parts of Britain such as Hornsey & Wood Green and Cambridge. At this point the Liberal Democrats were regularly winning most of the council wards in the constituency, too. After Leech somewhat increased his majority in the 2010 election, in which his party polled strongly for much of the campaign, it all unwound following the formation of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. Leech was consigned to an enormous defeat in 2015, and Labour's successful candidate then, Jeff Smith, now enjoys a very healthy majority. Leech has since managed to regain a seat on the council, in Didsbury West ward, but while the Liberal Democrats retain a reasonable presence in Withington ward they were crushingly defeated in all of the other wards in the constituency in the 2024 local elections, the most recent at the time of writing this profile. The rather youthful and alternative nature of the population in some areas (Chorlton has a particularly strong reputation as an area of craft beers and indeed craft beards) means that Labour probably cannot afford to relax too much, as younger voters tend to be rather more volatile, and also less likely to vote, than older voters, but at the moment they are sitting pretty here, just as they are in all of the parliamentary seats in the city of Manchester. Manchester Withington went slightly above quota for the new constituencies, and in the most recent boundary revision, apart from a minor realignment of ward boundaries, Burnage was excised; although Burnage was one of Labour's strongest areas in the seat, Labour has now sprouted easily large enough a lead to be able to withstand this change, and the seat remains, at least in the shorter term, safe for the party. Indeed, the Liberal Democrats, while at least coming close to winning in Didsbury West ward and maintaining a decent presence in Withington, did very badly in much of the constituency in the 2024 local elections, and lost even second place to the Greens in a number of wards. This development was to continue in the general election, as the Green vote shot up at the expense of both Labour and the Lib Dems, putting them in a highly respectable and clear, but still distant, second place. Labour's Jeff Smith, however, while seeing a substantial drop in his and his party's share of the vote, still polled well over half the votes cast, and as he now takes his parliamentary career into its second decade he has maintained a position of complete safety for Labour in what was once a much more difficult seat than it is today.
MANCHESTER WITHINGTON
Although this constituency has existed since 1918, it has changed considerably first in the area it has covered, and then in its electoral politics. For some decades, it was the only entirely reliably Conservative seat in the city of Manchester (and in fact the only one at all out of the many which then existed in 1945, and from the 1974 elections until this seat fell to Labour in 1987). This was logical enough, as it has pretty much always been the most prosperous of the city's constituencies, even though it is not the one furthest from the city centre; but from the Conservative loss to Labour's Keith Bradley in 1987 to the present day, it has not returned to the Tories, and it would be a brave person who now predicted a return of Conservative tenure in the constituency. It has changed politically beyond all recognition in the intervening few decades.
As well as Withington itself, the seat takes in the areas of Chorlton-cum-Hardy (Manchester actually has another Chorlton, Chorlton-on-Medlock, further in towards the city centre, but it has largely been subsumed by university campuses), Barlow Moor, Didsbury and Old Moat as well as more minor sub-districts. It remains mostly a well-educated middle-class constituency popular with professionals, but does also contain some quite large council estates, almost entirely low-rise and mostly interwar. It also has a substantial student population, although not as large as that in Central or Gorton constituencies. Once upon a time, however, the constituency was more tightly drawn around Withington, and for some years contained only 2 council wards, Withington and Levenshulme (nowadays a very safe Labour ward, but once a largely artisan area which was able to elect Conservative councillors with reasonable regularity) - Levenshulme nowadays is in Gorton & Denton, and in fact was the very last Manchester ward to elect a Labour councillor for the first time, which seems rather counter-intuitive looking at results, especially since the Liberal Democrats' post-coalition collapse after 2010. Didsbury, which today tends to be regarded as the fulcrum of the constituency, was not included until 1974, having been in Manchester Wythenshawe before that; this helps to some extent to explain the Tories' initial series of victories in that constituency, which came to an end with Alf Morris's gain for Labour in 1964, since when the Tories have mostly been nowhere near there or in its successor seat of Wythenshawe & Sale East. Chorlton-cum-Hardy was included until 1950, but for a long time after that was rather surprisingly in the Moss Side constituency, abolished in 1983, where it was the main basis for the once strong Conservative vote that used to exist there too. It seems logical that Withington, Didsbury and Chorlton are now united in a single constituency, because as well as being not too far apart geographically they have quite a lot in common demographically too; they are all what some might think to some extent "trendy" areas, younger in age profile than average, well-educated, and essentially having the character of long-established, but perhaps very slightly scruffy, suburbs. These areas have long since ceased to be favoured by wealthy professionals working in Manchester's financial sector, who nowadays prefer to live slightly further out of town for the most part, as do the perhaps even wealthier Premiership footballers who play for Manchester's two famous teams. Instead, the professionals who live here are much likelier to work in what might at least loosely be described as the public sector, for example in universities and the NHS. These voters have become less and less likely to vote Conservative as the years have passed by and, since 1987, it has been Labour who have for the most part managed to unite their traditional support in more working class Old Moat, plus the council estates elsewhere, with more public sector professional support predominantly in the constituency's other districts. However, their dominance has suffered an interruption, even though that now seems to be at an end, too.
Keith Bradley's initial Labour win in 1987 (it was the one and only gain Labour managed anywhere in the North-West in that election, even Wallasey proving, if only temporarily, elusive) appeared to have an air of finality about it when the party handily increased its majority in 1992, then crushingly defeated the Tories by a margin, astonishing as it seemed at the time, of more than 4 to 1 in 1997. However, this proved rather illusory, as after gaining a rather distant second place in 2001 the Liberal Democrats took advantage of the Labour Government's growing unpopularity particularly among younger voters, to a large degree because of British military action in Iraq, and local campaigner John Leech was able to gain the seat with a spectacular swing, seen also elsewhere in rather similar seats in other parts of Britain such as Hornsey & Wood Green and Cambridge. At this point the Liberal Democrats were regularly winning most of the council wards in the constituency, too. After Leech somewhat increased his majority in the 2010 election, in which his party polled strongly for much of the campaign, it all unwound following the formation of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. Leech was consigned to an enormous defeat in 2015, and Labour's successful candidate then, Jeff Smith, now enjoys a very healthy majority. Leech has since managed to regain a seat on the council, in Didsbury West ward, but while the Liberal Democrats retain a reasonable presence in Withington ward they were crushingly defeated in all of the other wards in the constituency in the 2024 local elections, the most recent at the time of writing this profile. The rather youthful and alternative nature of the population in some areas (Chorlton has a particularly strong reputation as an area of craft beers and indeed craft beards) means that Labour probably cannot afford to relax too much, as younger voters tend to be rather more volatile, and also less likely to vote, than older voters, but at the moment they are sitting pretty here, just as they are in all of the parliamentary seats in the city of Manchester. Manchester Withington went slightly above quota for the new constituencies, and in the most recent boundary revision, apart from a minor realignment of ward boundaries, Burnage was excised; although Burnage was one of Labour's strongest areas in the seat, Labour has now sprouted easily large enough a lead to be able to withstand this change, and the seat remains, at least in the shorter term, safe for the party. Indeed, the Liberal Democrats, while at least coming close to winning in Didsbury West ward and maintaining a decent presence in Withington, did very badly in much of the constituency in the 2024 local elections, and lost even second place to the Greens in a number of wards. This development was to continue in the general election, as the Green vote shot up at the expense of both Labour and the Lib Dems, putting them in a highly respectable and clear, but still distant, second place. Labour's Jeff Smith, however, while seeing a substantial drop in his and his party's share of the vote, still polled well over half the votes cast, and as he now takes his parliamentary career into its second decade he has maintained a position of complete safety for Labour in what was once a much more difficult seat than it is today.
