Post by Robert Waller on Sept 21, 2023 9:41:14 GMT
The Boundary Commission confirmed in the final report of June 2023, that almost exactly two-thirds of the present South East Cambridgeshire seat should become the core of a newly named Ely and East Cambridgeshire. 17.5% of it, from Fulbourn down to Linton, would be transferred to S Cambridgeshire, and 15.8%, such as Histon and Impington to the new and extra St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire constituency. In return, the new Ely & East seat would take some territory from NE Cambridgeshire such as Littleport, effectively moving a little further into the Fens. These are already in the East Cambridgeshire district council area, and in fact the new seat would almost be coterminous with that authority, with the exception only of the two South Cambs wards of Milton & Waterbeach and Cottenham. The reference to Ely in its name was only added only at the last stage of the Commission’s recommendations. In effect, the seat has been slightly rotated in an anticlockwise direction within the county.
The core seat here, South East Cambridgeshire is physically sandwiched between the North East and South divisions of that county, and its political characteristics also seem to be located pretty much between them as well. Cambridgeshire North East is a very safe Conservative seat. Cambridgeshire South is one of the Liberal Democrats’ best hopes of a gain in England. In the current South East, the LDs finished in a strong and closing second place to the Tories in 2019, polling a very respectable 32%, up 13% since 2017. For the next general election it will remain an outside opportunity for a change of hand.
This seat is at present made up of elements of the East Cambridgeshire and South Cambridgeshire districts. The changing political balance as one moves clockwise around the county, as it were, is significantly demonstrated by the results of the 2016 EU referendum. We know that East Cambridgeshire voted 51% to leave, 49% to remain; Fenland to the north, the core of the NE Cambridgeshire seat, preferred very decisively to leave by no less than 71.4%. South Cambridgeshire on the other hand had a substantial remain majority: 60%. That would be because it is far more in the economic, social and cultural orbit of the city of Cambridge (at 73.8%, itself one of the strongest pro-EU areas in England). That also explains why the Liberal Democrats had such strong hopes in the South Cambridgeshire parliamentary constituency in 2019, the ‘Brexit’ election, but also why they advanced in the seat under discussion here. Overall it is estimated that South East Cambridgeshire must have had a Remain majority, of around 54%.
This is not the overwhelmingly flat ‘waterland’ of the Fens, with its tendency to insularity and social conservatism. The largest community is the cathedral city of Ely (population 19,000 in 2021), looking over and perhaps down on the Fens themselves. Also included are the small town of Soham (12,000), unfortunately possibly still remembered as the site of a double child murder in 2002, and many smaller communities such as Burwell (6,000), Haddenham, Cottenham, Milton and Waterbeach (which was designated for notable expansion in 2018). The last three named are very much now suburban to Cambridge. This is all very much part of the fast developing Cambridgeshire sub region of the east of England. By 2019 the electorate of SE Cambridgeshire had already reached 86,769, over ten thousand more than the national quota for England.
Overall, the new Ely & East Cambridgeshire constituency’s demographics lie between those of its neighbours to the north and south west. At the time of the 2021 census, and on the new boundaries in all the seats, just under 40% worked in professional and managerial occupations (24% in NE, 46.7% in S). 37% were educated to at least degree level (19% in NE, 49% in South). 16% had no educational qualifications - 12% in South, 26% in NE.
Of course there are distinctions within the seat, including those of political preference. In the 2021 Cambridgeshire county elections, the Liberal Democrats gained both Ely North and Ely South from the Conservatives. They already held Fulbourn, and Sutton at county level. In the expanding Waterbeach, the LDs won, but there was actually a 10% swing to Labour who moved forward into second place. On the other hand the Tories won the Woodditton and Burwell divisions with hardly a negative swing in 2021, and they triumphed in both Soham county divisions by at least a two to one margin.
At district level, in East Cambridgeshire council elections, last fought all out in May 2023,the Tories retained a narrow 15-13 (all LD) overall majority, with no seats changing hand net since 2019 – very unusual in generally a disastrous set for the nationally governing party. The Liberal Democrats retained all seven council seats in Ely. They also won Haddenham, Sutton and the top seat in divided Stretham (a gain). On the other hand the Conservatives won the four in the second town, Soham (two of these gains from the LDs compared with 2019), the three in Littleport, the two in Burwell, the two in Woodditton, Fordham & Isleham, Downham. Perhaps predictably, the Liberal Democrats commandingly returned all the councillors in the two South Cambridgeshire wards that will remain in Ely & East Cambs when they were last fought in May 2022.
Labour have not really featured in the areas covered by the South East Cambridgeshire constituency (they have only finished second twice, in 1997 and 2017, and in 2010 only polled 7.6% after their candidate was suspended from the party during the election campaign) except in the anomalous Waterbeach – they recorded another strong second place in the district ward of Milton & Waterbeach in May 2022.
Nevertheless, the parliamentary battle is clearly a two horse race between defending Conservatives (Lucy Frazer is the MP) and the Liberal Democrats. The new Ely & East Cambridgeshire will be distinctly less upmarket and well-educated than the old SE Cambridgeshire was, but the political effects of the boundary changes will be only slightly positive for the Tories. Adding the two wards in South Cambridgeshire (which did not go to the polls that year) to the May 2023 local election cumulative results, the Liberal Democrats would clearly have been ahead within Ely & East Cambridgeshire. Of course they are good at local elections and this was not on a general election turnout. All the same, the new seat will remain a plausible target for the Liberal Democrats in a very good year; in December 2019 the Tories might have had a notional majority of around 13,000 – but it is hard at present to see the Conservatives performing anywhere near as well as in 2019, though of course circumstances may change before a possible late 2024 election.
Unlike in Fenland and the NE Cambridgeshire seat, the feeling here is predominantly of forward looking modernity, whether it be through employment in science and technology (the Cambridge Science Park is actually just within the current boundaries) or in the new housing developments to be found in almost every community. It would be fanciful to make parallels with the role of ‘white heat’ at the end of (another) 13 years of Conservative rule in 1964, but at the very least this quadrant of Cambridgeshire feels flexible and open to change in its attitudes and preferences.
2021 Census, new boundaruies
Age 65+ 20.5% 227/575
Owner occupied 69.7% 188/575
Private rented 16.7% 353/575
Social rented 13.6% 355/575
White 93.6% 225/575
Black 0.9% 344/575
Asian 2.5% 361/575
Managerial & professional 39.7% 118/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.3% 376/575
Degree level 37.0% 168/575
No qualifications 16.1% 371/575
Students 4.5% 497/575
General Election 2019: South East Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Lucy Frazer 32,187 50.0 –3.3
Liberal Democrats Pippa Heylings 20,697 32.1 +13.1
Labour James Bull 10,492 16.3 –11.4
Independent Edmund Fordham 1,009 1.6 New
C Majority 11,490 17.8 –7.7
2019 electorate 86,769
Turnout 64,385 74.2 +1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 8.3 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Ely and East Cambridgeshire will consist of
66.7% of SE Cambridgeshire
15.7% of NE Cambridgeshire
5.7% of South Cambridgeshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_062_Ely%20and%20East%20Cambridgeshire_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
The core seat here, South East Cambridgeshire is physically sandwiched between the North East and South divisions of that county, and its political characteristics also seem to be located pretty much between them as well. Cambridgeshire North East is a very safe Conservative seat. Cambridgeshire South is one of the Liberal Democrats’ best hopes of a gain in England. In the current South East, the LDs finished in a strong and closing second place to the Tories in 2019, polling a very respectable 32%, up 13% since 2017. For the next general election it will remain an outside opportunity for a change of hand.
This seat is at present made up of elements of the East Cambridgeshire and South Cambridgeshire districts. The changing political balance as one moves clockwise around the county, as it were, is significantly demonstrated by the results of the 2016 EU referendum. We know that East Cambridgeshire voted 51% to leave, 49% to remain; Fenland to the north, the core of the NE Cambridgeshire seat, preferred very decisively to leave by no less than 71.4%. South Cambridgeshire on the other hand had a substantial remain majority: 60%. That would be because it is far more in the economic, social and cultural orbit of the city of Cambridge (at 73.8%, itself one of the strongest pro-EU areas in England). That also explains why the Liberal Democrats had such strong hopes in the South Cambridgeshire parliamentary constituency in 2019, the ‘Brexit’ election, but also why they advanced in the seat under discussion here. Overall it is estimated that South East Cambridgeshire must have had a Remain majority, of around 54%.
This is not the overwhelmingly flat ‘waterland’ of the Fens, with its tendency to insularity and social conservatism. The largest community is the cathedral city of Ely (population 19,000 in 2021), looking over and perhaps down on the Fens themselves. Also included are the small town of Soham (12,000), unfortunately possibly still remembered as the site of a double child murder in 2002, and many smaller communities such as Burwell (6,000), Haddenham, Cottenham, Milton and Waterbeach (which was designated for notable expansion in 2018). The last three named are very much now suburban to Cambridge. This is all very much part of the fast developing Cambridgeshire sub region of the east of England. By 2019 the electorate of SE Cambridgeshire had already reached 86,769, over ten thousand more than the national quota for England.
Overall, the new Ely & East Cambridgeshire constituency’s demographics lie between those of its neighbours to the north and south west. At the time of the 2021 census, and on the new boundaries in all the seats, just under 40% worked in professional and managerial occupations (24% in NE, 46.7% in S). 37% were educated to at least degree level (19% in NE, 49% in South). 16% had no educational qualifications - 12% in South, 26% in NE.
Of course there are distinctions within the seat, including those of political preference. In the 2021 Cambridgeshire county elections, the Liberal Democrats gained both Ely North and Ely South from the Conservatives. They already held Fulbourn, and Sutton at county level. In the expanding Waterbeach, the LDs won, but there was actually a 10% swing to Labour who moved forward into second place. On the other hand the Tories won the Woodditton and Burwell divisions with hardly a negative swing in 2021, and they triumphed in both Soham county divisions by at least a two to one margin.
At district level, in East Cambridgeshire council elections, last fought all out in May 2023,the Tories retained a narrow 15-13 (all LD) overall majority, with no seats changing hand net since 2019 – very unusual in generally a disastrous set for the nationally governing party. The Liberal Democrats retained all seven council seats in Ely. They also won Haddenham, Sutton and the top seat in divided Stretham (a gain). On the other hand the Conservatives won the four in the second town, Soham (two of these gains from the LDs compared with 2019), the three in Littleport, the two in Burwell, the two in Woodditton, Fordham & Isleham, Downham. Perhaps predictably, the Liberal Democrats commandingly returned all the councillors in the two South Cambridgeshire wards that will remain in Ely & East Cambs when they were last fought in May 2022.
Labour have not really featured in the areas covered by the South East Cambridgeshire constituency (they have only finished second twice, in 1997 and 2017, and in 2010 only polled 7.6% after their candidate was suspended from the party during the election campaign) except in the anomalous Waterbeach – they recorded another strong second place in the district ward of Milton & Waterbeach in May 2022.
Nevertheless, the parliamentary battle is clearly a two horse race between defending Conservatives (Lucy Frazer is the MP) and the Liberal Democrats. The new Ely & East Cambridgeshire will be distinctly less upmarket and well-educated than the old SE Cambridgeshire was, but the political effects of the boundary changes will be only slightly positive for the Tories. Adding the two wards in South Cambridgeshire (which did not go to the polls that year) to the May 2023 local election cumulative results, the Liberal Democrats would clearly have been ahead within Ely & East Cambridgeshire. Of course they are good at local elections and this was not on a general election turnout. All the same, the new seat will remain a plausible target for the Liberal Democrats in a very good year; in December 2019 the Tories might have had a notional majority of around 13,000 – but it is hard at present to see the Conservatives performing anywhere near as well as in 2019, though of course circumstances may change before a possible late 2024 election.
Unlike in Fenland and the NE Cambridgeshire seat, the feeling here is predominantly of forward looking modernity, whether it be through employment in science and technology (the Cambridge Science Park is actually just within the current boundaries) or in the new housing developments to be found in almost every community. It would be fanciful to make parallels with the role of ‘white heat’ at the end of (another) 13 years of Conservative rule in 1964, but at the very least this quadrant of Cambridgeshire feels flexible and open to change in its attitudes and preferences.
2021 Census, new boundaruies
Age 65+ 20.5% 227/575
Owner occupied 69.7% 188/575
Private rented 16.7% 353/575
Social rented 13.6% 355/575
White 93.6% 225/575
Black 0.9% 344/575
Asian 2.5% 361/575
Managerial & professional 39.7% 118/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.3% 376/575
Degree level 37.0% 168/575
No qualifications 16.1% 371/575
Students 4.5% 497/575
General Election 2019: South East Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Lucy Frazer 32,187 50.0 –3.3
Liberal Democrats Pippa Heylings 20,697 32.1 +13.1
Labour James Bull 10,492 16.3 –11.4
Independent Edmund Fordham 1,009 1.6 New
C Majority 11,490 17.8 –7.7
2019 electorate 86,769
Turnout 64,385 74.2 +1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 8.3 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Ely and East Cambridgeshire will consist of
66.7% of SE Cambridgeshire
15.7% of NE Cambridgeshire
5.7% of South Cambridgeshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_062_Ely%20and%20East%20Cambridgeshire_Portrait.pdf
Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
| Con | 29385 | 54.0% |
| LD | 15936 | 29.3% |
| Lab | 7825 | 14.4% |
| Grn | 310 | 0.6% |
| Oth | 1009 | 1.9% |
| Majority | 13449 | 24.7% |
