Post by Robert Waller on Sept 20, 2023 19:38:55 GMT
Most of this seat comes from the existing Wealden constituency. Why have we switched from Wealden to Sussex Weald? One reason is that the local government authority, the District of Wealden, is now shared with the brand new and additional East Grinstead & Uckfield, which spans the boundary of the counties of East and West Sussex. But it is also arguable that it will now be clearer to non-locals where exactly this seat is; and also there is a clear distinction with another newly drawn constituency, Weald of Kent.
In the boundary changes, the western strip of this constituency from Forest Row down to Uckfield with around 20,000 electors being placed in the new East Grinstead & Uckfield, and in return around 15,000 voters centred on Heathfield come in from Bexhill & Battle. As Heathfield is pretty much midway between the two main towns of the former Wealden, Crowborough in the north and Hailsham in its south, this produces a redrawn division of logical shape and communications.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_364_Sussex%20Weald_Portrait.pdf
This eliminates the bulge the present Wealden has, that curls round to avoid Heathfield. The political effects of the boundary changes are neutral, as can be see from the 2019 notional figures at the bottom of this entry.
‘Weald’ was originally an Old English word meaning ‘forest’ (as in the German Wald). Appropriately enough, it became an industrial area in the Iron Age, for there was ironstone in the sandstone base of the High Weald. Since 1983 there has been a constituency named Wealden, situated in the county of East Sussex and essentially the successor seat to the former East Grinstead, separated from its eponymous town by the county boundary with West Sussex. Wealden still covers a heavily wooded part of southern England, but it is no longer associated with industry: only 0.1% are employed in mineral extraction, and 6.2% in manufacturing, both in the bottom third of constituencies. There are no large towns in Wealden, or in its successor Sussex Weald; the most populous are Crowborough in the north of the seat not far from Tunbridge Wells, and Hailsham in the south, looking towards Eastbourne (both with around 22,000-23,000 inhabitants at the 2021 census). The Sussex Weald is still predominantly rural, and the ancient connection with the forest is still notably maintained.
That is because this seat will still include the northern part of Ashdown Forest, originally a royal hunting reserve for the Norman kings after their arrival in the Conquest. It was also used by A.A. Milne, who lived within the new Sussex Weald lines at Cotchford Farm near the village of Hartfield (where incidentally a later owner, Brian Jones of the Rolling Stones, was found drowned) as the setting for the stories of Winnie the Pooh and his associates. People travel to the area to play Pooh-sticks on the alleged original Pooh Bridge. 500 Acre Wood is clearly the original for the Hundred Acre version in which Pooh’s unlikely range of animal friends lived and where his adventures took place. The Conservative predominance has been such that the other parties could be forgiven for being as gloomy as Eeyore at the prospect of challenging it. However, very recently there have been developments that might permit them to fantasise a very different story.
There are no Labour wards at all, and in the 2021 East Sussex county elections the Conservatives won all of the divisions within what will be the Weald of Sussex constituency except for Hailsham Market, which they lost to the Liberal Democrats. On Wealden district council, on the other hand, in the most recent contests in May 2023, the Tories were generally put to the sword by either Greens or Lib Dems. The Greens repeated their 2019 triumph in picturesque Withyham, and also gained Crowborough St John’s ward, Hartfield, Horam & Punnetts Town, and finished top on the divided representation of Frant & Wadhurst.
The Liberal Democrats swept every other ward in Crowborough, and five of the six in decidedly unglamorous Hailsham, including the anomalous Hailsham East, which has by far the highest proportion of social housing in what is one of the most heavily owner occupied seats in Britain. The Conservatives held only Hailsham West (narrowly) and a handful of rural wards like Chiddingly, East Hoathly & Waldron, Framfield & Cross-in-Hand, and, oddly unopposed, Hadlow Down & Rotherfield. Incoming Heathfield elected Independents in both its wards in 2023.
However awful these results were for the Conservatives, they still polled the most votes within Sussex Weald , albeit with only a 37% share, because the Greens and the LDs were evenly split with 23% apiece. A pact whereby one of these parties withdraws seems unlikely, as both have already selected parliamentary candidates for the next general election; the Conservative MP for Wealden, Nusrat Ghani, has been reselected as well.
In the December 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats did overtake Labour to place second in the Wealden constituency, while the Greens did advance to manage narrowly to retain their deposit on this occasion. Could either party to be especially Tiggerish about their prospects in this seat? The Conservative lead is massive. Nusrat Ghani received 37,027 votes in 2017 and a consistent 37,043 in 2019, over 25,000 ahead of her nearest rival. It would indeed take a very blustery political day for the Conservative hegemony to be blown loose in Wealden, but those 2023 results suggest their support may not be as solid as it looks; so there is the off-chance that the party that has been in government since 2010 might blunder into a heffalump trap in Sussex Weald. But that divided opposition will probably save them.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.5% 71/575
Owner occupied 77.3% 26/575
Private rented 13.3% 517/575
Social rented 9.4% 537/575
White 96.3% 114/575
Black 0.4% 458/575
Asian 1.3% 476/575
Managerial & professional 37.5% 164/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5% 457/575
Degree level 32.7% 270/575
No qualifications 14.6% 441/575
Students 4.4% 513/575
General Election 2019: Wealden
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nus Ghani 37,043 60.8 -0.4
Liberal Democrats Chris Bowers 11,388 18.7 +8.3
Labour Angela Smith 9,377 15.4 -6.8
Green Georgia Taylor 3,099 5.1 +1.9
C Majority 25,655 42.1 +3.1
Turnout 60,907 73.3 -1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Sussex Weald will consist of
70.2% of Wealden
13.7% of Bexhill & Battle
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_364_Sussex%20Weald_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results - Rallings & Thrasher
In the boundary changes, the western strip of this constituency from Forest Row down to Uckfield with around 20,000 electors being placed in the new East Grinstead & Uckfield, and in return around 15,000 voters centred on Heathfield come in from Bexhill & Battle. As Heathfield is pretty much midway between the two main towns of the former Wealden, Crowborough in the north and Hailsham in its south, this produces a redrawn division of logical shape and communications.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_364_Sussex%20Weald_Portrait.pdf
This eliminates the bulge the present Wealden has, that curls round to avoid Heathfield. The political effects of the boundary changes are neutral, as can be see from the 2019 notional figures at the bottom of this entry.
‘Weald’ was originally an Old English word meaning ‘forest’ (as in the German Wald). Appropriately enough, it became an industrial area in the Iron Age, for there was ironstone in the sandstone base of the High Weald. Since 1983 there has been a constituency named Wealden, situated in the county of East Sussex and essentially the successor seat to the former East Grinstead, separated from its eponymous town by the county boundary with West Sussex. Wealden still covers a heavily wooded part of southern England, but it is no longer associated with industry: only 0.1% are employed in mineral extraction, and 6.2% in manufacturing, both in the bottom third of constituencies. There are no large towns in Wealden, or in its successor Sussex Weald; the most populous are Crowborough in the north of the seat not far from Tunbridge Wells, and Hailsham in the south, looking towards Eastbourne (both with around 22,000-23,000 inhabitants at the 2021 census). The Sussex Weald is still predominantly rural, and the ancient connection with the forest is still notably maintained.
That is because this seat will still include the northern part of Ashdown Forest, originally a royal hunting reserve for the Norman kings after their arrival in the Conquest. It was also used by A.A. Milne, who lived within the new Sussex Weald lines at Cotchford Farm near the village of Hartfield (where incidentally a later owner, Brian Jones of the Rolling Stones, was found drowned) as the setting for the stories of Winnie the Pooh and his associates. People travel to the area to play Pooh-sticks on the alleged original Pooh Bridge. 500 Acre Wood is clearly the original for the Hundred Acre version in which Pooh’s unlikely range of animal friends lived and where his adventures took place. The Conservative predominance has been such that the other parties could be forgiven for being as gloomy as Eeyore at the prospect of challenging it. However, very recently there have been developments that might permit them to fantasise a very different story.
There are no Labour wards at all, and in the 2021 East Sussex county elections the Conservatives won all of the divisions within what will be the Weald of Sussex constituency except for Hailsham Market, which they lost to the Liberal Democrats. On Wealden district council, on the other hand, in the most recent contests in May 2023, the Tories were generally put to the sword by either Greens or Lib Dems. The Greens repeated their 2019 triumph in picturesque Withyham, and also gained Crowborough St John’s ward, Hartfield, Horam & Punnetts Town, and finished top on the divided representation of Frant & Wadhurst.
The Liberal Democrats swept every other ward in Crowborough, and five of the six in decidedly unglamorous Hailsham, including the anomalous Hailsham East, which has by far the highest proportion of social housing in what is one of the most heavily owner occupied seats in Britain. The Conservatives held only Hailsham West (narrowly) and a handful of rural wards like Chiddingly, East Hoathly & Waldron, Framfield & Cross-in-Hand, and, oddly unopposed, Hadlow Down & Rotherfield. Incoming Heathfield elected Independents in both its wards in 2023.
However awful these results were for the Conservatives, they still polled the most votes within Sussex Weald , albeit with only a 37% share, because the Greens and the LDs were evenly split with 23% apiece. A pact whereby one of these parties withdraws seems unlikely, as both have already selected parliamentary candidates for the next general election; the Conservative MP for Wealden, Nusrat Ghani, has been reselected as well.
In the December 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats did overtake Labour to place second in the Wealden constituency, while the Greens did advance to manage narrowly to retain their deposit on this occasion. Could either party to be especially Tiggerish about their prospects in this seat? The Conservative lead is massive. Nusrat Ghani received 37,027 votes in 2017 and a consistent 37,043 in 2019, over 25,000 ahead of her nearest rival. It would indeed take a very blustery political day for the Conservative hegemony to be blown loose in Wealden, but those 2023 results suggest their support may not be as solid as it looks; so there is the off-chance that the party that has been in government since 2010 might blunder into a heffalump trap in Sussex Weald. But that divided opposition will probably save them.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.5% 71/575
Owner occupied 77.3% 26/575
Private rented 13.3% 517/575
Social rented 9.4% 537/575
White 96.3% 114/575
Black 0.4% 458/575
Asian 1.3% 476/575
Managerial & professional 37.5% 164/575
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5% 457/575
Degree level 32.7% 270/575
No qualifications 14.6% 441/575
Students 4.4% 513/575
General Election 2019: Wealden
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nus Ghani 37,043 60.8 -0.4
Liberal Democrats Chris Bowers 11,388 18.7 +8.3
Labour Angela Smith 9,377 15.4 -6.8
Green Georgia Taylor 3,099 5.1 +1.9
C Majority 25,655 42.1 +3.1
Turnout 60,907 73.3 -1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Sussex Weald will consist of
70.2% of Wealden
13.7% of Bexhill & Battle
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_364_Sussex%20Weald_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results - Rallings & Thrasher
| Con | 31486 | 63.7% |
| LD | 8322 | 16.8% |
| Lab | 7349 | 14.9% |
| Grn | 2261 | 4.6% |
| Majority | 23164 | 46.9% |