Post by andrewp on Sept 19, 2023 11:03:50 GMT
In the run up to, and following, the 2019 General election, a new phrase entered journalistic coverage of British Politics- the red wall. The red wall was characterised by a group of parliamentary constituencies in the Midlands and North of England that had always, or nearly always, over the previous century been won by the Labour party and were vulnerable to the Conservative party in 2019. There was, and is, no precise definition of the red wall but it is broadly understood to be a group of parliamentary constituencies characterised by a number of social and demographic traits including fewer than average people educated to degree level, fewer than average numbers of people from ethnic minorities and fewer people working in managerial roles. Here In Northern Plymouth, we have a type of red wall in Devon, a constituency that shares some of those political and social characteristics.
Plymouth is a port and naval city on the South coast of Devon and immediately bordering the river Tamar which forms the County Boundary between Devon and Cornwall.
Moor View was a new designation for a Plymouth constituency, brought into being by the 5th periodical review which came into force for the 2010 general election. All of the areas of the city after which Plymouth constituencies were traditionally named- Devonport, Drake and Sutton- had been placed in the new southern Plymouth constituency so a new name was needed. Originally this seat was to be named Plymouth North, but eventually Moor View was settled on, despite that not being one of the more prominent suburb names. This seat is essentially the Plymouth Devonport that existed prior to 2010 without the Devonport area itself.
In the current boundary review Moor View remains as the constituency name and boundary changes are minimal. A small part of Peverell ward near the Home Park football stadium and containing about 4000 electors is transferred from Sutton and Devenport into Moor View to ensure that both seats are within quota. The political effect of that is probably fairly neutral but could make a difference in what could be a close race here next time.
This is an almost entirely suburban seat and does not contain any of the famous landmarks of the city. Rather, it contains great swathes of hilly estates, much of it originally local authority built. This is mostly working class territory with lower than average property prices and a higher proportion of manual workers. It does however have an armed forces presence associated with the Naval base at Devenport, a trait that often skews an area politically rightwards. Derriford Hospital, which serves as the major hospital for most of Cornwall and West Devon is situated in this constituency, which may act as a political counterbalance to the Naval base. Moor View is 95.9% white. It still has 24.5% of socially rented housing placing it well in the top 100 parliamentary constituencies for social housing. It is a low skilled constituency, being ranked towards the bottom of constituencies for people to educated to degree level with 22.8% holding a degree. This is white working-class territory.
The constituency contains seven wards of the city of Plymouth. When these wards were first contested in 2003, which was by no means a brilliant year for the party, Labour won all seven. Over the subsequent two decades Local elections here drifted towards the Conservatives. In politically even years in 2019 and 2022 the Conservatives took four wards, to Labour’s three. In the Conservatives high point year of 2021, they managed to win all seven wards here, completing a clean sweep for the first time ever. However, in 2023 disaster struck the Conservatives in Plymouth. A decision to chop down the trees in Armada Way in Plymouth City Centre with the trees being felled in the week before the local elections led to a Conservative electoral disaster in the city and Labour completed a clean sweep of the 7 wards here.
Overall, the two best Labour wards are Ham and Honicknowle- these are the two wards immediately next to the A38 as it runs through the city and where about one third of the housing is still rented. Eggbuckland is the most owner-occupied ward, and unsurprisingly the best Conservative ward,.
The old Devonport had three prominent MPs between 1945 and 1992- Michael Foot, Dame Joan Vickers and David Owen. Owen held Devonport twice as an SDP member in 1983 and 1987. Upon his retirement in 1992, Devonport resorted to being a semi marginal Labour seat. When Moor View was created in 2010, it had a notional Labour majority of 7,740. Devonport Labour MP Alison Seabeck won the first contest in Moor View by 1500 in 2010. In 2015 new Conservative candidate Johnny Mercer gained the seat by 1000 votes on a 3% swing. Mercer has increased his majority to 5000 in 2017, and then on a 9% swing to 12,897 in 2019. Mercer had a distinguished military career including 3 tours of Afghanistan, which is no bad thing to have on a CV in this military city. Even campaigning to remain in the EU hasn’t been held against him in a constituency that voted 66% leave. Labour, at the second attempt, have selected Fred Thomas to fight this seat - they need a swing of about 14- 15% to win here. On paper that looks a steep task, and they would probably be winning an overall majority of about 100 if they were to achieve that nation wide but one suspects that there is a scope for a larger swing here than in some other constituencies with similar majorities.
Plymouth is a port and naval city on the South coast of Devon and immediately bordering the river Tamar which forms the County Boundary between Devon and Cornwall.
Moor View was a new designation for a Plymouth constituency, brought into being by the 5th periodical review which came into force for the 2010 general election. All of the areas of the city after which Plymouth constituencies were traditionally named- Devonport, Drake and Sutton- had been placed in the new southern Plymouth constituency so a new name was needed. Originally this seat was to be named Plymouth North, but eventually Moor View was settled on, despite that not being one of the more prominent suburb names. This seat is essentially the Plymouth Devonport that existed prior to 2010 without the Devonport area itself.
In the current boundary review Moor View remains as the constituency name and boundary changes are minimal. A small part of Peverell ward near the Home Park football stadium and containing about 4000 electors is transferred from Sutton and Devenport into Moor View to ensure that both seats are within quota. The political effect of that is probably fairly neutral but could make a difference in what could be a close race here next time.
This is an almost entirely suburban seat and does not contain any of the famous landmarks of the city. Rather, it contains great swathes of hilly estates, much of it originally local authority built. This is mostly working class territory with lower than average property prices and a higher proportion of manual workers. It does however have an armed forces presence associated with the Naval base at Devenport, a trait that often skews an area politically rightwards. Derriford Hospital, which serves as the major hospital for most of Cornwall and West Devon is situated in this constituency, which may act as a political counterbalance to the Naval base. Moor View is 95.9% white. It still has 24.5% of socially rented housing placing it well in the top 100 parliamentary constituencies for social housing. It is a low skilled constituency, being ranked towards the bottom of constituencies for people to educated to degree level with 22.8% holding a degree. This is white working-class territory.
The constituency contains seven wards of the city of Plymouth. When these wards were first contested in 2003, which was by no means a brilliant year for the party, Labour won all seven. Over the subsequent two decades Local elections here drifted towards the Conservatives. In politically even years in 2019 and 2022 the Conservatives took four wards, to Labour’s three. In the Conservatives high point year of 2021, they managed to win all seven wards here, completing a clean sweep for the first time ever. However, in 2023 disaster struck the Conservatives in Plymouth. A decision to chop down the trees in Armada Way in Plymouth City Centre with the trees being felled in the week before the local elections led to a Conservative electoral disaster in the city and Labour completed a clean sweep of the 7 wards here.
Overall, the two best Labour wards are Ham and Honicknowle- these are the two wards immediately next to the A38 as it runs through the city and where about one third of the housing is still rented. Eggbuckland is the most owner-occupied ward, and unsurprisingly the best Conservative ward,.
The old Devonport had three prominent MPs between 1945 and 1992- Michael Foot, Dame Joan Vickers and David Owen. Owen held Devonport twice as an SDP member in 1983 and 1987. Upon his retirement in 1992, Devonport resorted to being a semi marginal Labour seat. When Moor View was created in 2010, it had a notional Labour majority of 7,740. Devonport Labour MP Alison Seabeck won the first contest in Moor View by 1500 in 2010. In 2015 new Conservative candidate Johnny Mercer gained the seat by 1000 votes on a 3% swing. Mercer has increased his majority to 5000 in 2017, and then on a 9% swing to 12,897 in 2019. Mercer had a distinguished military career including 3 tours of Afghanistan, which is no bad thing to have on a CV in this military city. Even campaigning to remain in the EU hasn’t been held against him in a constituency that voted 66% leave. Labour, at the second attempt, have selected Fred Thomas to fight this seat - they need a swing of about 14- 15% to win here. On paper that looks a steep task, and they would probably be winning an overall majority of about 100 if they were to achieve that nation wide but one suspects that there is a scope for a larger swing here than in some other constituencies with similar majorities.
