Post by Robert Waller on Sept 18, 2023 19:24:24 GMT
Population (and hence electorate) growth has led there to be extensive boundary changes in Sussex in the latest round of boundary changes. The seat under consideration here, Mid Sussex, will technically have two successor constituencies, but the one still to be called Mid Sussex will include the clear majority (69.7%) of the current division. However, its northern section around East Grinstead is removed to a new East Grinstead & Uckfield seat, which spans the administrative counties of East and West Sussex almost equally. In exchange Mid Sussex is to gain the Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint wards from Arundel & South Downs; they form 15.7% of that seat at present.
Overall the centre of gravity of Mid Sussex will move southwards, and the notional Conservative majority will be slightly reduced, although more because there will be a slight ‘swing’ from Tory to Labour than an increase for the Liberal Democrats – who finished second in December 2019, as they always have ever since the seat was first created in 1974, with the exception of 2015-17, and have notable strength in local elections within both current and new boundaries. Both Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint wards were easily retained by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2023 Mid Sussex council elections, by majorities over over two to one compared with the Tories.
Parliamentary constituencies whose names consist of a county and the prefix ‘Mid’ tend to be a ragbag of areas that seem left over after more coherent units have been established, often created when a county’s electoral quota demands the creation of an extra seat. A typical example of this would be Mid Derbyshire since 2010, a division that includes disparate parts of three local government authorities including Derby itself. Mid Oxon had a relatively brief life (February 1974 – 1983) notable mainly for being the seat of the prominent Douglas Hurd. Arguably Poole North and Mid Dorset is an even more undistinguished title. However Mid Sussex does have much more of a logic and raison d’etre to its existence.
For a start, there has been a local government district of Mid Sussex since 1974 and it is all currently included in this constituency with the exception of a handful of wards in each of Horsham and Arundel & South Downs. This seat contains no part of any other municipal unit – and that will still be true after the boundary changes - and is of a regular shape and does indeed at present lie in the geographical centre of the county, stretching from the Surrey border down to the border with Brighton and Hove, and running along the eastern edge of West Sussex’s border with East Sussex. It is not only compact but cohesive, covering the towns of East Grinstead, Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath, and the countryside in between – all parts of middle England as well as Mid Sussex. The Prime Meridian even passes through the constituency.
It could be argued that Mid Sussex is not located in the middle ground politically, and in the last three general elections it has given the appearance of being a Conservative stronghold. In 2019 Miriam ‘Mims’ Davies, migrating across the county boundary from Eastleigh in Hampshire, won a majority of over 18,000, nearly as convincing as that of her predecessor Nicholas Soames (19,000 in 2017, over 24,000 in 2015). However all is not quite as it seems. From the constituency’s creation in 1974 through to 2010, the Liberals or Liberal Democrats had always finished second, the last four times 1997-2010 by four figure majorities between 5,000 and 7,500, with a share increasing each time to reach a very healthy 37.5% in 2010. Then after the coalition, and the departure of serial candidate Serena Tierney, the Liberal Democrats suffered one of their steepest drops in the country in 2015, crashing into fourth place and losing over three quarters of their share (the victim, incidentally, was Daisy Cooper, now MP for St Albans).
However some recovery has since been under way, as they advanced to third in 2017 and back into second in 2019, almost doubling their share from 13% to 24%. What is more, the Liberal Democrats have often proved competitive on Mid Sussex council, winning at least 20 of the 54 councillors from 1995 to 2011 including a four year period in overall control. In May 2019 they made 13 gains from the Conservatives, clearly making renewed inroads after a period of Tory hegemony in both local and parliamentary contests here, and in May 2023 they made eight further gains. As the Conservatives lost 11 more seats then, the LDs are now the largest party on Mid Sussex council.
This may well presage a revival at the next general election. The Liberal Democrats are strongest in Burgess Hill, which is the largest town in this constituency – its population was over 33,000 in the 2021 census. In May 2023, clearly running in some cases in partnership with Green or Independent candidates, they returned councillors, in all wards of Burgess Hill except one, Victoria, where an Independent won, with Labour and Conservative opposition but not Liberal Democrat. In Dunstall (mainly modern private housing in the north-west quadrant of the town) the LDs had to share representation with a Conservative, but finished top of the poll. New housing estates have transformed Burgess Hill, which had a population of 7,000 in 1951, and has more than quadrupled. It is set on the fast Brighton to London railway and has commuters to both, though it is also a hub of its own as the national headquarters of Filofax and with employer such as American Express, Honeywell and Porsche.
Haywards Heath is also on the London-Brighton line and, as anyone driving round its southern ring road will testify, almost as large (31,000 in 2021) as Burgess Hill and rapidly growing (some population estimates such as Wikipedia include the contiguous community of Lindfield, but in fact Lindfield has a distinct, older, quainter feel – as does Cuckfield, also in Mid Sussex). Haywards Heath has a slightly more upmarket tone and socio-economic classification than Burgess Hill, particularly in the attractive Lucastre ward in the west of the town, and it is slightly less fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats, in that the Tories returned councillors in its North ward in 2023 and also finished top in Haywards Heath Franklands, shared with Labour. This is the site of social rented housing: the Franklands Village OA was 88% social rented in the 2021 census, although it is clearly an unusual housing estate, founded as a ‘model village’ in the 1930s, still run by a Housing Association, and not available on Google street view www.fvha.org.uk/?page_id=19)
More strongly Conservative than either of the other main towns, East Grinstead is considerably nearer to London but with less direct transport links, being neither near the A23 nor on such a main rail line, typically scheduled for 56 minutes to Victoria compared with 53 minutes from Burgess Hill and 46 minutes from Haywards Heath. East Grinstead may well be best known as the UK headquarters of the Scientology cult, but it has been a significant town for far longer than the others in Mid Sussex and elected MPs under its own name from 1307 to 1983. It is worthy of note that after its final election, the MP Geoffrey Johnson Smith preferred to contest the new Wealden constituency rather than Mid Sussex, as it was more monolithically Conservative.
In the May 2023 Mid Sussex district council elections, when the Tories were being hammered both locally and nationally, East Grinstead still returned seven Conservative councillors, one Independent, and no others. Now it is leaving the Mid Sussex division. The current Mid Sussex MP has emulated Johnson Smith by opting to follow East Grinstead, being selected in late May 2023 for the new East Grinstead & Uckfield. Kristy Adams, District councillor for Bolney, was adopted for Mid Sussex in September of the same year.
Mims Davies’s judgment may well be correct. With a very high level of educational qualifications, Mid Sussex voted Remain by over 53% in 2016, and a likely scenario next time would be that the Liberal Democrats strengthen their second place as the memory of the coalition fades further, while adverse economic effects are ascribed to exiting the EU. With a 10% lead, if the May 2023 local election votes on the new boundaries are summed, they may even see the reduced and improved (from their point of view) parliamentary constituency as at the very least a chance to do at least as well as they did between 1997 and 2010 inclusive - or even a possibility of a gain.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 20.1% 241/575
Owner occupied 73.3% 94/575
Private rented 15.3% 421/575
Social rented 11.4% 460/575
White 91.8% 264/575
Black 0.8% 345/575
Asian 3.9% 302/575
Managerial & professional 45.1% 42/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.4% 501/575
Degree level 40.5% 109/575
No qualifications 11.3% 549/575
Students 5.1% 384/575
General Election 2019: Mid Sussex
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mims Davies 33,455 53.3 -3.6
Liberal Democrats Robert Eggleston 15,258 24.3 +11.6
Labour Gemma Bolton 11,218 17.9 -7.1
Green Deanna Nicholson 2,234 3.6 +1.0
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 550 0.9 -0.1
Advance Brett Mortensen 47 0.1
C Majority 18,197 29.0 -2.9
Turnout 62,762 73.7 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swing 7.6 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Mid Sussex consists of
69.7% of Mid Sussex
15.7% of Arundel & South Downs
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_339_Mid%20Sussex_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results
Credit Rallings & Thrasher
Overall the centre of gravity of Mid Sussex will move southwards, and the notional Conservative majority will be slightly reduced, although more because there will be a slight ‘swing’ from Tory to Labour than an increase for the Liberal Democrats – who finished second in December 2019, as they always have ever since the seat was first created in 1974, with the exception of 2015-17, and have notable strength in local elections within both current and new boundaries. Both Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint wards were easily retained by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2023 Mid Sussex council elections, by majorities over over two to one compared with the Tories.
Parliamentary constituencies whose names consist of a county and the prefix ‘Mid’ tend to be a ragbag of areas that seem left over after more coherent units have been established, often created when a county’s electoral quota demands the creation of an extra seat. A typical example of this would be Mid Derbyshire since 2010, a division that includes disparate parts of three local government authorities including Derby itself. Mid Oxon had a relatively brief life (February 1974 – 1983) notable mainly for being the seat of the prominent Douglas Hurd. Arguably Poole North and Mid Dorset is an even more undistinguished title. However Mid Sussex does have much more of a logic and raison d’etre to its existence.
For a start, there has been a local government district of Mid Sussex since 1974 and it is all currently included in this constituency with the exception of a handful of wards in each of Horsham and Arundel & South Downs. This seat contains no part of any other municipal unit – and that will still be true after the boundary changes - and is of a regular shape and does indeed at present lie in the geographical centre of the county, stretching from the Surrey border down to the border with Brighton and Hove, and running along the eastern edge of West Sussex’s border with East Sussex. It is not only compact but cohesive, covering the towns of East Grinstead, Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath, and the countryside in between – all parts of middle England as well as Mid Sussex. The Prime Meridian even passes through the constituency.
It could be argued that Mid Sussex is not located in the middle ground politically, and in the last three general elections it has given the appearance of being a Conservative stronghold. In 2019 Miriam ‘Mims’ Davies, migrating across the county boundary from Eastleigh in Hampshire, won a majority of over 18,000, nearly as convincing as that of her predecessor Nicholas Soames (19,000 in 2017, over 24,000 in 2015). However all is not quite as it seems. From the constituency’s creation in 1974 through to 2010, the Liberals or Liberal Democrats had always finished second, the last four times 1997-2010 by four figure majorities between 5,000 and 7,500, with a share increasing each time to reach a very healthy 37.5% in 2010. Then after the coalition, and the departure of serial candidate Serena Tierney, the Liberal Democrats suffered one of their steepest drops in the country in 2015, crashing into fourth place and losing over three quarters of their share (the victim, incidentally, was Daisy Cooper, now MP for St Albans).
However some recovery has since been under way, as they advanced to third in 2017 and back into second in 2019, almost doubling their share from 13% to 24%. What is more, the Liberal Democrats have often proved competitive on Mid Sussex council, winning at least 20 of the 54 councillors from 1995 to 2011 including a four year period in overall control. In May 2019 they made 13 gains from the Conservatives, clearly making renewed inroads after a period of Tory hegemony in both local and parliamentary contests here, and in May 2023 they made eight further gains. As the Conservatives lost 11 more seats then, the LDs are now the largest party on Mid Sussex council.
This may well presage a revival at the next general election. The Liberal Democrats are strongest in Burgess Hill, which is the largest town in this constituency – its population was over 33,000 in the 2021 census. In May 2023, clearly running in some cases in partnership with Green or Independent candidates, they returned councillors, in all wards of Burgess Hill except one, Victoria, where an Independent won, with Labour and Conservative opposition but not Liberal Democrat. In Dunstall (mainly modern private housing in the north-west quadrant of the town) the LDs had to share representation with a Conservative, but finished top of the poll. New housing estates have transformed Burgess Hill, which had a population of 7,000 in 1951, and has more than quadrupled. It is set on the fast Brighton to London railway and has commuters to both, though it is also a hub of its own as the national headquarters of Filofax and with employer such as American Express, Honeywell and Porsche.
Haywards Heath is also on the London-Brighton line and, as anyone driving round its southern ring road will testify, almost as large (31,000 in 2021) as Burgess Hill and rapidly growing (some population estimates such as Wikipedia include the contiguous community of Lindfield, but in fact Lindfield has a distinct, older, quainter feel – as does Cuckfield, also in Mid Sussex). Haywards Heath has a slightly more upmarket tone and socio-economic classification than Burgess Hill, particularly in the attractive Lucastre ward in the west of the town, and it is slightly less fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats, in that the Tories returned councillors in its North ward in 2023 and also finished top in Haywards Heath Franklands, shared with Labour. This is the site of social rented housing: the Franklands Village OA was 88% social rented in the 2021 census, although it is clearly an unusual housing estate, founded as a ‘model village’ in the 1930s, still run by a Housing Association, and not available on Google street view www.fvha.org.uk/?page_id=19)
More strongly Conservative than either of the other main towns, East Grinstead is considerably nearer to London but with less direct transport links, being neither near the A23 nor on such a main rail line, typically scheduled for 56 minutes to Victoria compared with 53 minutes from Burgess Hill and 46 minutes from Haywards Heath. East Grinstead may well be best known as the UK headquarters of the Scientology cult, but it has been a significant town for far longer than the others in Mid Sussex and elected MPs under its own name from 1307 to 1983. It is worthy of note that after its final election, the MP Geoffrey Johnson Smith preferred to contest the new Wealden constituency rather than Mid Sussex, as it was more monolithically Conservative.
In the May 2023 Mid Sussex district council elections, when the Tories were being hammered both locally and nationally, East Grinstead still returned seven Conservative councillors, one Independent, and no others. Now it is leaving the Mid Sussex division. The current Mid Sussex MP has emulated Johnson Smith by opting to follow East Grinstead, being selected in late May 2023 for the new East Grinstead & Uckfield. Kristy Adams, District councillor for Bolney, was adopted for Mid Sussex in September of the same year.
Mims Davies’s judgment may well be correct. With a very high level of educational qualifications, Mid Sussex voted Remain by over 53% in 2016, and a likely scenario next time would be that the Liberal Democrats strengthen their second place as the memory of the coalition fades further, while adverse economic effects are ascribed to exiting the EU. With a 10% lead, if the May 2023 local election votes on the new boundaries are summed, they may even see the reduced and improved (from their point of view) parliamentary constituency as at the very least a chance to do at least as well as they did between 1997 and 2010 inclusive - or even a possibility of a gain.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 20.1% 241/575
Owner occupied 73.3% 94/575
Private rented 15.3% 421/575
Social rented 11.4% 460/575
White 91.8% 264/575
Black 0.8% 345/575
Asian 3.9% 302/575
Managerial & professional 45.1% 42/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.4% 501/575
Degree level 40.5% 109/575
No qualifications 11.3% 549/575
Students 5.1% 384/575
General Election 2019: Mid Sussex
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mims Davies 33,455 53.3 -3.6
Liberal Democrats Robert Eggleston 15,258 24.3 +11.6
Labour Gemma Bolton 11,218 17.9 -7.1
Green Deanna Nicholson 2,234 3.6 +1.0
Monster Raving Loony Baron Von Thunderclap 550 0.9 -0.1
Advance Brett Mortensen 47 0.1
C Majority 18,197 29.0 -2.9
Turnout 62,762 73.7 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swing 7.6 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Mid Sussex consists of
69.7% of Mid Sussex
15.7% of Arundel & South Downs
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_339_Mid%20Sussex_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results
| Con | 27154 | 51.3% |
| LD | 13489 | 25.5% |
| Lab | 9530 | 18.0% |
| Grn | 2179 | 4.1% |
| Oth | 550 | 1.1% |
| Majority | 13665 | 25.8% |
Credit Rallings & Thrasher
