Chatham and Aylesford
Sept 18, 2023 13:07:06 GMT
Pete Whitehead, gerrardwinstanley, and 1 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Sept 18, 2023 13:07:06 GMT
As presently constituted, this is a strange looking constituency. It resembles a set of weightlifting barbells, with bulges at each end, one on each side of the M2 motorway, and a narrow neck of connecting land. A coupling of wards from the predominantly urban borough of Medway and the more rural Tonbridge and Malling authority, it was originally largely the successor to another makeshift seat, Mid Kent, which had been created in the major boundary review of 1983 as an extra division for that county. The fact that Chatham and Aylesford was first contested in the 1997 general election gave a distorted impression of its political character. In that year Tony Blair’s New Labour achieved a hitherto exceptional success, taking many seats that had eluded the party previously. Jonathan Shaw was the fortunate candidate here, winning with a majority of 2,740. The Blair appeal faded but slowly, and Labour held Chatham & Aylesford twice more, in 2001 and 2005. They have not come close since.
This has always been is an ‘odd couple’ of a seat. Chatham is a tough, working-class town with long connections with the Royal Navy and some Labour-voting wards, while Aylesford and the rest of the constituency is of a different hue. These wards are essentially rural, containing large villages like Larkfield and small towns such as Snodland, and amount to some 27,000 voters in all. However, in recent elections – and the more recent, the more clearly – both parts of the constituency have preferred the Conservative party, at least in general elections. In December 2019 Tracey Crouch increased her lead to over 18,500. There are still potentially promising areas for Labour, though.
In the Medway, ‘Chatham’ section, the most recent local elections took place in May 2023. Ward boundary changes brought into force for that year in Medway borough have disrupted the neat alignment with the constituency boundaries, as the Commission used the former wards in their deliberations and prescriptions.
(Old and new wards here www.medwayelects.co.uk/?page=wards#currentwards)
Of the new wards wholly or mainly within the Chatham & Aylesford constituency, on 2023 Labour did win Chatham Central & Brompton, Luton and Wayfield & Weeds Wood, all areas of existing strength. All of these wards, especially the first two named, have ‘inner city’ characteristics, although Central only includes part of the town centre such as the station. Both are only around 50% owner occupied, with the other half slightly skewed to the private rented sector over social rented. The two wards see the greatest concentrations of the ethnic minority populations within the Chatham & Aylesford seat. Over the whole constituency, the Black proportion doubled from 2.4% in the 2011 census to 4.9% in 2021, and in inner Chatham this figure is generally over 10%, and reaches 25% in the OA around Diana Road and Mark Street in Chatham Central. By contrast, across the M2 divide, the highest Black figures in 2021 were to be found in Snodland (1.4%) and Larkfield (0.7%).
In 2023 the Conservatives won the other two wards in the borough of Medway easily. Princes Park a and Lordswood & Walderslade are residential areas clambering south up the North Downs away from the mouth of the Medway, and are over 70% owner occupied and close to 90% white British even in 2021. They are not affluent or high status, fairly evenly balanced between professional and managerial, and routine and semi routine, occupations. But class is no longer a strong guide to political preference. Indeed the educational pattern of the constituency as a whole, ranking 504th out of the 575 seats in England and Wales for those possessing degrees at the time of the 2021 census (on new boundaries, it was 504th out of the 573 on current lines), has become an indicator in recent years of susceptibility to the appeal of the Conservative party, particularly over the European issue.
Turning to the part of the seat within Tonbridge and Malling council, also affected by local government boundary changes, in May 2023 the Conservatives won both Aylesford wards fairly narrowly , but lost in Larkfield to the Liberal Democrats and to Labour in Snodland. Labour increased their representation in Snodland West & Holborough Lakes to take both seats in 2023, and shared the spoils with a Tory in Snodland East & Ham Hill. These were the only Labour victories in the whole council, which was all-up that year. There is a substantial amount of post WW2 era social housing in Snodland, running in a strip east of the Malling Road in Snodland and then west of it in Holborough Lakes, along Covey Hall Road. Despite all the lakes (formerly gravel pits and quarries), there is little glamorous about Snodland.
In the Kent county council elections of May 2021, the Liberal Democrats did triumph in Malling Central division, almost exactly half of which is in the Chatham & Aylesford constituency (the section around Larkfield, so that fits with the district council results of 2019). However the Conservatives won by a massive margin in Malling North, just under half of which is included, in the form of the Snodland and Holborough parts; despite its 2023 success Labour had only polled 20% here in the county election. The one Kent county division entirely within Chatham & Aylesford is Malling North East (Aylesford, Ditton, Blue Bell Hill, Burham, Wouldham). In 2021 the Conservatives took 72.6% in a four way contest, with Labour second on 11%, the LDs on 9% and the Greens on 7%, a result which speaks for itself. Some of the few census areas with more than 20% higher managerial and professional workers in the 2021 version are in this county division, particularly around Blue Bell Hill and in the part of Aylesford that is south even of the M20, never mind the M2.
This last named section is precisely the part (10.8%) of the current constituency that will be removed in the forthcoming boundary changes, and transferred to the new Maidstone & Malling seat. As the Aylesford South ward includes all the parts of that community south of the river Medway, including the station, it seems odd that the name of Chatham and Aylesford is recommended to be retained unaltered. It could, in fact, be argued that Aylesford is lucky to be in the constituency name at all, especially as its population, generously estimated at 7,000, is less than that of Snodland (nearly 12,000 in 2021), for example.
Meanwhile, the shape of the seat will be improved somewhat with the addition of Rochester South & Horsted ward, taken from the Rochester and Strood constituency. As this was also a safe Conservative victory in 2019 and previous Medway elections, the net political impact of the boundary changes on the notional 2019 results will be neutral, even if the nomenclature will be dubious (parts of Chatham such as its High Street are in other seats such as that named after Rochester, and parts of Rochester will now be here, never mind the split of Aylesford). However, as well as increasing the ‘north of the M2' portion, the Rochester South & Horsted addition does fill out that narrow neck of terrain between the two disparate elements of the Chatham & Aylesford constituency, so it will look less obviously cobbled together.
Rochester South & Horsted was one of the casualties of the Medway borough boundary changes, and as in May 2023 Labour won its principal successor, the new Fort Pitt ward, they clearly have potential in the territory newly added to Chatham & Aylesford to do better than they did in 2019 in parliamentary terms too. Labour will probably substantially narrow the gap to the Tories at the next general election, but they still appear to be a long way from repeating their success in the first three general elections of this seat’s existence. Whether they will be able to get back to that kind of performance is one of the central questions of the British politics of the 2020s. Applying the kind of opinion poll leads they enjoyed through much of 2023 to seat projections in a putative general election, as some websites have done, suggests Labour may be winning Chatham & Aylesford. But 2023 is not election year, and opinion polls are not actual votes, as responding to them does not have the same consequences, which is why they should not be treated as predictions (except for exit polls). Adam Gray's estimates of how Chatham & Aylesford voted on its new boundaries in the May 2023 local elections have the Conservatives still ahead - by just 96 votes. That in itself is too close to call, and of course some of the same caveats should apply as with opinion polls. As in hundreds of other seats, the outcome in Chatham & Aylesford will thus be a matter of great interest on the night of the count.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.9% 420/575
Owner occupied 66.9% 265/575
Private rented 17.9% 310/575
Social rented 15.2% 277/575
White 85.8% 349/575
Black 5.2% 135/575
Asian 5.1% 262/575
Managerial & professional 28.8% 388/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.3% 200/575
Degree level 24.5% 504/575
No qualifications 20.1% 189/575
Students 5.6% 288/575
General Election 2019: Chatham and Aylesford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Tracey Crouch 28,856 66.6 +9.6
Labour Vince Maple 10,316 23.8 -9.9
Liberal Democrats David Naghi 2,866 6.6 +4.1
Green Geoff Wilkinson 1,090 2.5 +1.2
CPA John Gibson 212 0.5 -0.1
C Majority 18,540 42.8 +19.5
2019 electorate 71,642
Turnout 43,340 59.1 -4.6
Conservative hold
Swing 9.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Chatham and Aylesford will consist of
89.2% of Chatham & Aylesford
12.5% of Rochester & Strood
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/SE_16_Chatham%20and%20Aylesford%20CC.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
This has always been is an ‘odd couple’ of a seat. Chatham is a tough, working-class town with long connections with the Royal Navy and some Labour-voting wards, while Aylesford and the rest of the constituency is of a different hue. These wards are essentially rural, containing large villages like Larkfield and small towns such as Snodland, and amount to some 27,000 voters in all. However, in recent elections – and the more recent, the more clearly – both parts of the constituency have preferred the Conservative party, at least in general elections. In December 2019 Tracey Crouch increased her lead to over 18,500. There are still potentially promising areas for Labour, though.
In the Medway, ‘Chatham’ section, the most recent local elections took place in May 2023. Ward boundary changes brought into force for that year in Medway borough have disrupted the neat alignment with the constituency boundaries, as the Commission used the former wards in their deliberations and prescriptions.
(Old and new wards here www.medwayelects.co.uk/?page=wards#currentwards)
Of the new wards wholly or mainly within the Chatham & Aylesford constituency, on 2023 Labour did win Chatham Central & Brompton, Luton and Wayfield & Weeds Wood, all areas of existing strength. All of these wards, especially the first two named, have ‘inner city’ characteristics, although Central only includes part of the town centre such as the station. Both are only around 50% owner occupied, with the other half slightly skewed to the private rented sector over social rented. The two wards see the greatest concentrations of the ethnic minority populations within the Chatham & Aylesford seat. Over the whole constituency, the Black proportion doubled from 2.4% in the 2011 census to 4.9% in 2021, and in inner Chatham this figure is generally over 10%, and reaches 25% in the OA around Diana Road and Mark Street in Chatham Central. By contrast, across the M2 divide, the highest Black figures in 2021 were to be found in Snodland (1.4%) and Larkfield (0.7%).
In 2023 the Conservatives won the other two wards in the borough of Medway easily. Princes Park a and Lordswood & Walderslade are residential areas clambering south up the North Downs away from the mouth of the Medway, and are over 70% owner occupied and close to 90% white British even in 2021. They are not affluent or high status, fairly evenly balanced between professional and managerial, and routine and semi routine, occupations. But class is no longer a strong guide to political preference. Indeed the educational pattern of the constituency as a whole, ranking 504th out of the 575 seats in England and Wales for those possessing degrees at the time of the 2021 census (on new boundaries, it was 504th out of the 573 on current lines), has become an indicator in recent years of susceptibility to the appeal of the Conservative party, particularly over the European issue.
Turning to the part of the seat within Tonbridge and Malling council, also affected by local government boundary changes, in May 2023 the Conservatives won both Aylesford wards fairly narrowly , but lost in Larkfield to the Liberal Democrats and to Labour in Snodland. Labour increased their representation in Snodland West & Holborough Lakes to take both seats in 2023, and shared the spoils with a Tory in Snodland East & Ham Hill. These were the only Labour victories in the whole council, which was all-up that year. There is a substantial amount of post WW2 era social housing in Snodland, running in a strip east of the Malling Road in Snodland and then west of it in Holborough Lakes, along Covey Hall Road. Despite all the lakes (formerly gravel pits and quarries), there is little glamorous about Snodland.
In the Kent county council elections of May 2021, the Liberal Democrats did triumph in Malling Central division, almost exactly half of which is in the Chatham & Aylesford constituency (the section around Larkfield, so that fits with the district council results of 2019). However the Conservatives won by a massive margin in Malling North, just under half of which is included, in the form of the Snodland and Holborough parts; despite its 2023 success Labour had only polled 20% here in the county election. The one Kent county division entirely within Chatham & Aylesford is Malling North East (Aylesford, Ditton, Blue Bell Hill, Burham, Wouldham). In 2021 the Conservatives took 72.6% in a four way contest, with Labour second on 11%, the LDs on 9% and the Greens on 7%, a result which speaks for itself. Some of the few census areas with more than 20% higher managerial and professional workers in the 2021 version are in this county division, particularly around Blue Bell Hill and in the part of Aylesford that is south even of the M20, never mind the M2.
This last named section is precisely the part (10.8%) of the current constituency that will be removed in the forthcoming boundary changes, and transferred to the new Maidstone & Malling seat. As the Aylesford South ward includes all the parts of that community south of the river Medway, including the station, it seems odd that the name of Chatham and Aylesford is recommended to be retained unaltered. It could, in fact, be argued that Aylesford is lucky to be in the constituency name at all, especially as its population, generously estimated at 7,000, is less than that of Snodland (nearly 12,000 in 2021), for example.
Meanwhile, the shape of the seat will be improved somewhat with the addition of Rochester South & Horsted ward, taken from the Rochester and Strood constituency. As this was also a safe Conservative victory in 2019 and previous Medway elections, the net political impact of the boundary changes on the notional 2019 results will be neutral, even if the nomenclature will be dubious (parts of Chatham such as its High Street are in other seats such as that named after Rochester, and parts of Rochester will now be here, never mind the split of Aylesford). However, as well as increasing the ‘north of the M2' portion, the Rochester South & Horsted addition does fill out that narrow neck of terrain between the two disparate elements of the Chatham & Aylesford constituency, so it will look less obviously cobbled together.
Rochester South & Horsted was one of the casualties of the Medway borough boundary changes, and as in May 2023 Labour won its principal successor, the new Fort Pitt ward, they clearly have potential in the territory newly added to Chatham & Aylesford to do better than they did in 2019 in parliamentary terms too. Labour will probably substantially narrow the gap to the Tories at the next general election, but they still appear to be a long way from repeating their success in the first three general elections of this seat’s existence. Whether they will be able to get back to that kind of performance is one of the central questions of the British politics of the 2020s. Applying the kind of opinion poll leads they enjoyed through much of 2023 to seat projections in a putative general election, as some websites have done, suggests Labour may be winning Chatham & Aylesford. But 2023 is not election year, and opinion polls are not actual votes, as responding to them does not have the same consequences, which is why they should not be treated as predictions (except for exit polls). Adam Gray's estimates of how Chatham & Aylesford voted on its new boundaries in the May 2023 local elections have the Conservatives still ahead - by just 96 votes. That in itself is too close to call, and of course some of the same caveats should apply as with opinion polls. As in hundreds of other seats, the outcome in Chatham & Aylesford will thus be a matter of great interest on the night of the count.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.9% 420/575
Owner occupied 66.9% 265/575
Private rented 17.9% 310/575
Social rented 15.2% 277/575
White 85.8% 349/575
Black 5.2% 135/575
Asian 5.1% 262/575
Managerial & professional 28.8% 388/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.3% 200/575
Degree level 24.5% 504/575
No qualifications 20.1% 189/575
Students 5.6% 288/575
General Election 2019: Chatham and Aylesford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Tracey Crouch 28,856 66.6 +9.6
Labour Vince Maple 10,316 23.8 -9.9
Liberal Democrats David Naghi 2,866 6.6 +4.1
Green Geoff Wilkinson 1,090 2.5 +1.2
CPA John Gibson 212 0.5 -0.1
C Majority 18,540 42.8 +19.5
2019 electorate 71,642
Turnout 43,340 59.1 -4.6
Conservative hold
Swing 9.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Chatham and Aylesford will consist of
89.2% of Chatham & Aylesford
12.5% of Rochester & Strood
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/SE_16_Chatham%20and%20Aylesford%20CC.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 30183 | 65.9% |
| Lab | 11191 | 24.4% |
| LD | 3085 | 6.7% |
| Green | 1138 | 2.5% |
| Oth | 212 | 0.5% |
| | ||
| Majority | 18992 | 41.5% |