Post by Robert Waller on Sept 17, 2023 14:07:21 GMT
The Wirral peninsula, once all Cheshire and since the 1970s mainly Merseyside in local government administration, has been over-represented in Westminster parliamentary terms for quite a few years. There are at present four undersized constituencies entirely within the Wirral metropolitan borough. Previous suggested solutions have included having a seat joined with parts of Liverpool and linked through the Birkenhead and Wallasey tunnels, and a bizarre 2011 proposal for a Mersey Banks seat including Bromborugh and Eastham from Wirral South and parts of Halton borough north of the river. In the recently finalised review a less dramatic change has been made, with Wirral borough including 3.6 of the current four seats. The other 0.4 of a seat, in the shape of two wards from the current South Wirral - Eastham and Bromborough, with over 23,000 electors - will be paired with the majority of Ellesmere Port & Neston (Cheshire) to form an Ellesmere Port and Bromborough division. Wirral South will effectively be abolished, also providing the minority of enlarged Wirral West and Birkenhead constituencies. Its present MP, Alison McGovern, has been selected for Birkenhead, which actually takes the smallest proportion (21%) of the disappearing seat.
At the base of the Wirral peninsula, the current Ellesmere Port and Neston constituency is squeezed between the muddy, swampy estuary of the Dee and the River Mersey, itself bulging to a width of near four miles opposite John Lennon Airport. This is one of Britain’s most functional, industrial landscapes. By the Mersey can be found the massive complex of the Essar (Shell until 2011) oil refinery at Stanlow, the second largest in the UK, after Fawley on Southampton Water. Vauxhall Motors, long the representative of General Motors in Britain but now owned by the Stelantis conglomerate, have had a major factory at the north end of Ellesmere Port since 1962, now their only car production centre operational in Britain following the move to focus on commercial vehicles at their Luton headquarters. There are docks, paper-works, oil depots, sewage works, fertiliser factories and many other concerns. Chimneys and flares overshadow Ellesmere Port, a town created by the industrial revolution and the Manchester Ship Canal. Study of old fashioned Ordnance Survey products or the more modern technology of Google maps reveals just how much the terrain in this seat is influenced by industrial development. Driving south down the M53 then taking the M56 east of Ellesmere Port past the Stanlow oil storage tanks can remind one of the dramatic finale of the classic James Cagney film White Heat.
Not surprisingly perhaps from this description, Ellesmere Port and Neston has largely been a safe Labour seat. Justin Madders was returned with a majority of over 8,750 even in the ‘Boris year’ of 2019. However this was not always so, and in several ways does need further explanation. Created from the Bebington & Ellesmere Port and Wirral divisions, in its first two contests in 1983 and 1987 Ellesmere Port & Neston seemed to be a Tory marginal; indeed it actually started in 1983 with a Conservative majority of over 7,000 for Mike Woodcock. Then Andrew Miller made a gain for Labour in 1992, by less than 2,000, before the Blair tidal surge, which has never really ebbed, unlike in so many other parts of Britain. The seat is clearly on a secular trend away from the Tories.
Yet many of its characteristics do not account for this direction of development. This is a predominantly owner occupied constituency: with nearly 70% of the housing stock on its present boundaries, Ellesmere Port & Neston lies in the top quartile. There are currently more professional and managerial workers than routine and semi-routine, and more with education to at least degree level than with no qualifications. The seat was still 96% white at the time of the most recently available Census figures (2021). The population is somewhat more elderly than average. As well as the rather dour Ellesmere Port town (population around 65,000), the seat at present includes south Wirral villages such as Willaston and Thornton, and the small town of Neston (15,000) near the Dee marshes, both of which have a high proportion of commuters to Merseyside and Chester. It currently extends in the Gowy Rural ward as far east as Ince and Elton beyond the Stanlow complex, and as far south as far as the village of Mickle Trafford, nowhere near the borough of that name but rather situated just north east of Chester. Neston is essentially mainly middle class, especially its western suburb of Parkgate along with Ness and Burton to the south, and was traditionally inclined to the Conservatives; however this has no longer been the case in recent years.
In the Chester West and Chester council elections of May 2023 Labour beat the Tories by 67%-25% in a straight fight in Neston ward (the remainder voting Liberal Democrat), and easily won Little Neston too (61% to 31%). In up-market (over 50% professional/managerial) Parkgate an Independent won easily. Meanwhile Labour were ahead in all the Ellesmere Port wards, polling 69% even in Strawberry, where over nine out of ten of the relatively new housing is owner occupied, 70% in Netherpool near the Vauxhall factory, and, coming to the areas with more social rented housing, no less than 80% in both Central & Grange, and Wolverham. In Whitby Groves and Whitby Park (overwhelmingly owner occupied), however, the Greens made considerable advances, gaining the latter from Labour and coming within 30 votes of them in the former. The Tories only won in Gowy Rural (narrowly) and in Willaston & Thornton.
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What explains the pro-Labour movement over the decades affecting Ellesmere Port & Neston (and this was hardly reversed in December 2019 even though this seat is estimated to have voted 58% to Leave the EU in 2016)? The answer is the same as that regarding the City of Chester seat and even Weaver Vale. Although administratively entirely in Cheshire at the moment this constituency is very much within the economic and political orbit of Merseyside, frankly a disaster zone for the Tories for decades.
In the boundary changes, this constituency will become even more associated with ‘Merseyside’. The cross boundary seat between Cheshire and Wirral borough will include 68% of EP & Neston and 40% of South Wirral. To a large extent, this actually recreates the Bebington & Ellesmere Port seat that existed in the 1974-83 period – both Bromborough and Eastham were included in the former Bebington municipal borough. Meanwhile the Neston/Parkgate area, Willaston & Thornton and Gowy Rural are removed, the former to a new Chester North & Neston constituency (receiving 17,000 voters), and the latter (7,400) to Runcorn & Helsby. Thus the new Ellesmere Port and Bromborough seat will more tightly follow the west bank of the Mersey, and proceed further north almost to Rock Ferry..
Neither of the transferred Wirral wards is safe for Labour in local elections. While held by the party from 2008 to 2022, Bromborough (whose name will appear in a constituency title for the first time ever) was gained by the Greens in May 2023, and Eastham has been held by the Liberal Democrats without a break since 1991. However in Westminster terms as Labour does much better in parliamentary than municipal contests on the peninsula, and as South Wirral as a whole has been swinging strongly to Labour in the long term, the new Ellesmere Port & Bromborough is likely to be a safe seat, with a notional majority for December 2019 well into five figures. The demographic figures for the new seat from the 2021 census are all significantly more working class, not so much because of the arrival of Bromborough and Eastham, which are very middling on these variables, but with the loss of Neston, Gowy Rural and especially Parkgate, notably around the Earle Drive area, where the 2021 census revealed over 60% professional and managerial occupations, half of them ‘higher’. Both the Cheshire West wards that the Tories won in May 2023 - their only successes anywhere in the former EP & Neston - are to be removed.
It is no secret that Boris Johnson was not Merseyside’s favourite politician. However it would be foolish for any Conservative to hope that this sub region will show any more favour to his successor (but one) in 2024 or whenever the next general election takes place; and the new Ellesmere Port based seat will be more 'Merseyside' still than the current version, both literally and figuratively. The Tories certainly will not shout ‘Top of the world, Ma!’ like James Cagney in White Heat, but their hopes will again surely crash and burn here.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.9% 301/575
Owner occupied 67.1% 257/575
Private rented 15.0% 437/575
Social rented 17.8% 201/575
White 96.0% 134/575
Black 0.4% 459/575
Asian 1.8% 415/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 394/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.6% 90/575
Degree level 27.2% 426/575
No qualifications 18.4% 246/575
Students 5.3% 340/575
General Election 2019: Ellesmere Port and Neston
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Justin Madders 26,001 53.3 –5.9
Conservative Alison Rodwell 17,237 35.4 –1.4
Liberal Democrats Ed Gough 2,406 4.9 +3.1
Brexit Party Christopher Stevens 2,138 4.4 New
Green Chris Copeman 964 2.0 +1.3
Lab Majority 8,764 18.0 –4.5
2019 electorate 70,327
Turnout 46,746 69.3 –4.9
Labour hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough will consist of
68.3% of Ellesmere Port and Neston
40.3% of Wirral South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_233_Ellesmere%20Port%20and%20Bromborough_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
At the base of the Wirral peninsula, the current Ellesmere Port and Neston constituency is squeezed between the muddy, swampy estuary of the Dee and the River Mersey, itself bulging to a width of near four miles opposite John Lennon Airport. This is one of Britain’s most functional, industrial landscapes. By the Mersey can be found the massive complex of the Essar (Shell until 2011) oil refinery at Stanlow, the second largest in the UK, after Fawley on Southampton Water. Vauxhall Motors, long the representative of General Motors in Britain but now owned by the Stelantis conglomerate, have had a major factory at the north end of Ellesmere Port since 1962, now their only car production centre operational in Britain following the move to focus on commercial vehicles at their Luton headquarters. There are docks, paper-works, oil depots, sewage works, fertiliser factories and many other concerns. Chimneys and flares overshadow Ellesmere Port, a town created by the industrial revolution and the Manchester Ship Canal. Study of old fashioned Ordnance Survey products or the more modern technology of Google maps reveals just how much the terrain in this seat is influenced by industrial development. Driving south down the M53 then taking the M56 east of Ellesmere Port past the Stanlow oil storage tanks can remind one of the dramatic finale of the classic James Cagney film White Heat.
Not surprisingly perhaps from this description, Ellesmere Port and Neston has largely been a safe Labour seat. Justin Madders was returned with a majority of over 8,750 even in the ‘Boris year’ of 2019. However this was not always so, and in several ways does need further explanation. Created from the Bebington & Ellesmere Port and Wirral divisions, in its first two contests in 1983 and 1987 Ellesmere Port & Neston seemed to be a Tory marginal; indeed it actually started in 1983 with a Conservative majority of over 7,000 for Mike Woodcock. Then Andrew Miller made a gain for Labour in 1992, by less than 2,000, before the Blair tidal surge, which has never really ebbed, unlike in so many other parts of Britain. The seat is clearly on a secular trend away from the Tories.
Yet many of its characteristics do not account for this direction of development. This is a predominantly owner occupied constituency: with nearly 70% of the housing stock on its present boundaries, Ellesmere Port & Neston lies in the top quartile. There are currently more professional and managerial workers than routine and semi-routine, and more with education to at least degree level than with no qualifications. The seat was still 96% white at the time of the most recently available Census figures (2021). The population is somewhat more elderly than average. As well as the rather dour Ellesmere Port town (population around 65,000), the seat at present includes south Wirral villages such as Willaston and Thornton, and the small town of Neston (15,000) near the Dee marshes, both of which have a high proportion of commuters to Merseyside and Chester. It currently extends in the Gowy Rural ward as far east as Ince and Elton beyond the Stanlow complex, and as far south as far as the village of Mickle Trafford, nowhere near the borough of that name but rather situated just north east of Chester. Neston is essentially mainly middle class, especially its western suburb of Parkgate along with Ness and Burton to the south, and was traditionally inclined to the Conservatives; however this has no longer been the case in recent years.
In the Chester West and Chester council elections of May 2023 Labour beat the Tories by 67%-25% in a straight fight in Neston ward (the remainder voting Liberal Democrat), and easily won Little Neston too (61% to 31%). In up-market (over 50% professional/managerial) Parkgate an Independent won easily. Meanwhile Labour were ahead in all the Ellesmere Port wards, polling 69% even in Strawberry, where over nine out of ten of the relatively new housing is owner occupied, 70% in Netherpool near the Vauxhall factory, and, coming to the areas with more social rented housing, no less than 80% in both Central & Grange, and Wolverham. In Whitby Groves and Whitby Park (overwhelmingly owner occupied), however, the Greens made considerable advances, gaining the latter from Labour and coming within 30 votes of them in the former. The Tories only won in Gowy Rural (narrowly) and in Willaston & Thornton.
.
What explains the pro-Labour movement over the decades affecting Ellesmere Port & Neston (and this was hardly reversed in December 2019 even though this seat is estimated to have voted 58% to Leave the EU in 2016)? The answer is the same as that regarding the City of Chester seat and even Weaver Vale. Although administratively entirely in Cheshire at the moment this constituency is very much within the economic and political orbit of Merseyside, frankly a disaster zone for the Tories for decades.
In the boundary changes, this constituency will become even more associated with ‘Merseyside’. The cross boundary seat between Cheshire and Wirral borough will include 68% of EP & Neston and 40% of South Wirral. To a large extent, this actually recreates the Bebington & Ellesmere Port seat that existed in the 1974-83 period – both Bromborough and Eastham were included in the former Bebington municipal borough. Meanwhile the Neston/Parkgate area, Willaston & Thornton and Gowy Rural are removed, the former to a new Chester North & Neston constituency (receiving 17,000 voters), and the latter (7,400) to Runcorn & Helsby. Thus the new Ellesmere Port and Bromborough seat will more tightly follow the west bank of the Mersey, and proceed further north almost to Rock Ferry..
Neither of the transferred Wirral wards is safe for Labour in local elections. While held by the party from 2008 to 2022, Bromborough (whose name will appear in a constituency title for the first time ever) was gained by the Greens in May 2023, and Eastham has been held by the Liberal Democrats without a break since 1991. However in Westminster terms as Labour does much better in parliamentary than municipal contests on the peninsula, and as South Wirral as a whole has been swinging strongly to Labour in the long term, the new Ellesmere Port & Bromborough is likely to be a safe seat, with a notional majority for December 2019 well into five figures. The demographic figures for the new seat from the 2021 census are all significantly more working class, not so much because of the arrival of Bromborough and Eastham, which are very middling on these variables, but with the loss of Neston, Gowy Rural and especially Parkgate, notably around the Earle Drive area, where the 2021 census revealed over 60% professional and managerial occupations, half of them ‘higher’. Both the Cheshire West wards that the Tories won in May 2023 - their only successes anywhere in the former EP & Neston - are to be removed.
It is no secret that Boris Johnson was not Merseyside’s favourite politician. However it would be foolish for any Conservative to hope that this sub region will show any more favour to his successor (but one) in 2024 or whenever the next general election takes place; and the new Ellesmere Port based seat will be more 'Merseyside' still than the current version, both literally and figuratively. The Tories certainly will not shout ‘Top of the world, Ma!’ like James Cagney in White Heat, but their hopes will again surely crash and burn here.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.9% 301/575
Owner occupied 67.1% 257/575
Private rented 15.0% 437/575
Social rented 17.8% 201/575
White 96.0% 134/575
Black 0.4% 459/575
Asian 1.8% 415/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 394/575
Routine & Semi-routine 29.6% 90/575
Degree level 27.2% 426/575
No qualifications 18.4% 246/575
Students 5.3% 340/575
General Election 2019: Ellesmere Port and Neston
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Justin Madders 26,001 53.3 –5.9
Conservative Alison Rodwell 17,237 35.4 –1.4
Liberal Democrats Ed Gough 2,406 4.9 +3.1
Brexit Party Christopher Stevens 2,138 4.4 New
Green Chris Copeman 964 2.0 +1.3
Lab Majority 8,764 18.0 –4.5
2019 electorate 70,327
Turnout 46,746 69.3 –4.9
Labour hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough will consist of
68.3% of Ellesmere Port and Neston
40.3% of Wirral South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_233_Ellesmere%20Port%20and%20Bromborough_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 26811 | 59.3% |
| Con | 12234 | 27.1% |
| LD | 3355 | 7.4% |
| Brexit | 1957 | 4.3% |
| Green | 859 | 1.9% |
| Lab Majority | 14577 | 32.2% |