Exmouth and Exeter East
Sept 17, 2023 9:48:59 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 2 more like this
Post by andrewp on Sept 17, 2023 9:48:59 GMT
A new name for a constituency in Devon but not really a new constituency. This constituency, as the name would suggest, is immediately to the East of Exeter but is clearly the more compact successor to the current Devon East constituency. About three quarters of the current Devon East forms the core of this constituency. This includes the largest town in the constituency Exmouth, the small genteel seaside town of Budleigh Salterton and the growing ‘new’ village of Cranbrook, as well as Exeter airport.
The name change is justified by the inclusion of a further ward from the edge of the city of Exeter, Pinhoe, bringing the total to 3 Exeter wards now included in this seat and accounting for about 20,000 electors, just over a quarter of the electorate of the new constituency and justifying a reference in the constituency name.
The constituency is now probably described as having 3 parts- the edge of Exeter, much of which is new housing on both sides of the M5, the town of Exmouth, and a part of the East Devon countryside. The new constituency is less rural than East Devon was but there is still a section of very pleasant moorland at Woodbury common and gentle valleys running down to the sea at Budleigh Salterton and Otterton. The coastline in this constituency is a series of steep red stone cliffs giving way to bays, thus making this a particularly challenging section of the South West Coastal path with several steep ascents and descents.
Exmouth, which sits on the corner of the Exe Estuary and the Channel is the largest town here. Exmouth is less genteel than other east Devon coastal towns to the East and unlike them it has industry, and a slightly down at heel town centre. It has a population of 34000 and is a popular commuting base into Exeter, being only 15 minutes away on the train. Exmouth was usually the least Conservative and most Lib Dem part of the Devon East constituency. It is younger, has some industry, and some council estates. It has a splendid 2 and a half mile promenade and a picturesque cricket ground in the sand dunes at the Maer. The best part of the town are the expensive flats set on a ridge above the Maer overlooking the channel.
The other town in the seat, Budleigh Salterton is much more genteel and has a pebbly rather than sandy beach. In the 2021 census, 42% of Budleigh’s 7000 residents were aged over 65. It’s a nice place to retire with a shopping street leading down to a nice promenade. An elderly town full of bowling greens and parks, a very conservative and Conservative place.
In recent years, the Labour party has seemingly surprisingly done quite well in local by elections, and amassed a larger than probable general election vote, in areas immediately surrounding Exeter. This constituency has several areas where that would also seem possible. Exeter is now home to a university of considerable size, as well as many other public sector institutions, many of whose workers choose to live outside of the city.
The 3 wards now included from Exeter, Topsham, St Loyes and Pinhoe are different bedfellows.
Topsham is a quaint town on the river Exe, which really fits very well with this seat and is a mixture of commuters to Exeter and retirees. It does however give its name to an Exeter City council ward which now includes quite a lot of new housing in Newcourt and Countess Wear on the other side of the Motorway, and which has somewhat transformed a ward which for a spell in the 1990s supplied the only Conservatives to Exeter City Council to one that has been won by the Labour party in 2022 and 2023
St Loyes is mainly rapidly expanding new housing estates on the edge of Exeter. This is the only ward in Exeter that the Conservatives won in 2023.
The third ward from Exeter, Pinhoe, is in the North East of the city and contains the older area of Pinhoe together with the vast new estates at Monkerton. Pinhoe is, and always has been, a marginal ward between Labour and the Conservatives.
Overall, this seat feels like it should and will normally be a Conservative seat. There is a Labour vote in Exeter East but almost certainly not enough to win this constituency even in a great year for that party. There is potential for the Liberal Democrats, but they will need to squeeze the Labour vote in Exeter East. Politics and notional results here have been influenced here by an unusually strong Independent vote over the last 3 general elections. This area would probably have been categorised as a safeish Conservative seat with a significant Lib Dem minority.
In 2015, Claire Wright, a PR officer in the NHS stood in Devon East and gathered a very creditable 13000 votes and 2nd place. Wright’s politics are very much of the centre left, but she gained some momentum as a very hard working activist against an unpopular local council. In 2013, she was elected to the County Council, getting 74% of the vote in the Ottery St Mary rural division, and she was re elected in 2017 with 75%. In the 2017 general election, she built further, amassing 21000 votes and cutting Conservative MP Sir Hugo Swire’s majority to 8,000. It’s fair to say that a lot of her votes come from Lib Dems, who themselves got a paltry 2.4% in that election. In the 2019, local elections, Independents, inspired by Wright, gained control of the district council from the Conservatives. In 2019, Hugo Swire retired, which probably helped arrest some of Wright’s momentum. The new Conservative candidate was Simon Jupp, a former radio presenter and SPAD. Early on election night at least one model predicted a Claire Wright gain, but despite her clocking up 26000 votes and 40%, Jupp won by 6, 708.
Claire Wright has announced that she will not be standing for parliament again, and it is not clear whether another Independent associated with her will stand in her place. If they don’t then the Liberal Democrats ought to be the main challengers to the Conservatives here. Simon Jupp has announced that he will follow the minority of his electors and contest the Honiton and Sidmouth constituency and the Conservatives have selected David Reed to fight this one.
The name change is justified by the inclusion of a further ward from the edge of the city of Exeter, Pinhoe, bringing the total to 3 Exeter wards now included in this seat and accounting for about 20,000 electors, just over a quarter of the electorate of the new constituency and justifying a reference in the constituency name.
The constituency is now probably described as having 3 parts- the edge of Exeter, much of which is new housing on both sides of the M5, the town of Exmouth, and a part of the East Devon countryside. The new constituency is less rural than East Devon was but there is still a section of very pleasant moorland at Woodbury common and gentle valleys running down to the sea at Budleigh Salterton and Otterton. The coastline in this constituency is a series of steep red stone cliffs giving way to bays, thus making this a particularly challenging section of the South West Coastal path with several steep ascents and descents.
Exmouth, which sits on the corner of the Exe Estuary and the Channel is the largest town here. Exmouth is less genteel than other east Devon coastal towns to the East and unlike them it has industry, and a slightly down at heel town centre. It has a population of 34000 and is a popular commuting base into Exeter, being only 15 minutes away on the train. Exmouth was usually the least Conservative and most Lib Dem part of the Devon East constituency. It is younger, has some industry, and some council estates. It has a splendid 2 and a half mile promenade and a picturesque cricket ground in the sand dunes at the Maer. The best part of the town are the expensive flats set on a ridge above the Maer overlooking the channel.
The other town in the seat, Budleigh Salterton is much more genteel and has a pebbly rather than sandy beach. In the 2021 census, 42% of Budleigh’s 7000 residents were aged over 65. It’s a nice place to retire with a shopping street leading down to a nice promenade. An elderly town full of bowling greens and parks, a very conservative and Conservative place.
In recent years, the Labour party has seemingly surprisingly done quite well in local by elections, and amassed a larger than probable general election vote, in areas immediately surrounding Exeter. This constituency has several areas where that would also seem possible. Exeter is now home to a university of considerable size, as well as many other public sector institutions, many of whose workers choose to live outside of the city.
The 3 wards now included from Exeter, Topsham, St Loyes and Pinhoe are different bedfellows.
Topsham is a quaint town on the river Exe, which really fits very well with this seat and is a mixture of commuters to Exeter and retirees. It does however give its name to an Exeter City council ward which now includes quite a lot of new housing in Newcourt and Countess Wear on the other side of the Motorway, and which has somewhat transformed a ward which for a spell in the 1990s supplied the only Conservatives to Exeter City Council to one that has been won by the Labour party in 2022 and 2023
St Loyes is mainly rapidly expanding new housing estates on the edge of Exeter. This is the only ward in Exeter that the Conservatives won in 2023.
The third ward from Exeter, Pinhoe, is in the North East of the city and contains the older area of Pinhoe together with the vast new estates at Monkerton. Pinhoe is, and always has been, a marginal ward between Labour and the Conservatives.
Overall, this seat feels like it should and will normally be a Conservative seat. There is a Labour vote in Exeter East but almost certainly not enough to win this constituency even in a great year for that party. There is potential for the Liberal Democrats, but they will need to squeeze the Labour vote in Exeter East. Politics and notional results here have been influenced here by an unusually strong Independent vote over the last 3 general elections. This area would probably have been categorised as a safeish Conservative seat with a significant Lib Dem minority.
In 2015, Claire Wright, a PR officer in the NHS stood in Devon East and gathered a very creditable 13000 votes and 2nd place. Wright’s politics are very much of the centre left, but she gained some momentum as a very hard working activist against an unpopular local council. In 2013, she was elected to the County Council, getting 74% of the vote in the Ottery St Mary rural division, and she was re elected in 2017 with 75%. In the 2017 general election, she built further, amassing 21000 votes and cutting Conservative MP Sir Hugo Swire’s majority to 8,000. It’s fair to say that a lot of her votes come from Lib Dems, who themselves got a paltry 2.4% in that election. In the 2019, local elections, Independents, inspired by Wright, gained control of the district council from the Conservatives. In 2019, Hugo Swire retired, which probably helped arrest some of Wright’s momentum. The new Conservative candidate was Simon Jupp, a former radio presenter and SPAD. Early on election night at least one model predicted a Claire Wright gain, but despite her clocking up 26000 votes and 40%, Jupp won by 6, 708.
Claire Wright has announced that she will not be standing for parliament again, and it is not clear whether another Independent associated with her will stand in her place. If they don’t then the Liberal Democrats ought to be the main challengers to the Conservatives here. Simon Jupp has announced that he will follow the minority of his electors and contest the Honiton and Sidmouth constituency and the Conservatives have selected David Reed to fight this one.
