Post by Robert Waller on Sept 15, 2023 18:42:08 GMT
At the time of the December 2019 United Kingdom general election the smallest electorate among the 650 constituencies, aside from the two Scottish ‘island seats’ of Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Orkney & Shetland, was that of Dwyfor Meirionnydd in north west Wales, with a mere 44,362 voters. Not only was Wales over-represented as a whole, with an average constituency electorate over 10,000 less than that in the rest of the UK, but this particular corner was even more favoured, and had been through several of the periodical reviews of successive Boundary Commissions. It is not as if this area has the constraints of being an island, like its near neighbour Ynys Mon (Anglesey). Suspicions arose that some factor other than those regularly and relatively uncontroversially taken into account in our non-political ‘redistricting’ process might be in play.
In the USA ‘ethnic minority’ districts are created by law (the Voting Rights Act) to provide guaranteed representation for Black and Spanish-speaking Americans. Is the nearest thing to this in Britain the Welsh-speaking seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd. In 1983 the Boundary Commission originally proposed uniting Merioneth, as the seat was then known, with much of the Tory-held English-speaking Conway on the north coast. This caused a storm of protest, not least because it would have eliminated one of the two seats that Plaid Cymru then held. After an inquiry, the Commission decided to expand Merioneth only slightly, taking just the sparsely populated mountainous southern part of Aberconwy district, to become the clumsily named Meirionnydd Nant Conwy.
This arrangement was retained without revision by the next (1995) Commission report. Then, in the changes enacted before the 2010 election, the name changed but the principles seemed to remain the same. True, some 15,000 voters were added in the form of the Dwyfor district, but this still left the division undersized even by the standards appertaining in Wales, and the new territory, previously in the Caernarfon seat, included many of the symbolic centres of Welsh speaking culture: the Llyn peninsula, much of Snowdonia (though not yet the mountain itself), and the heartland of David Lloyd George such as his childhood home of Llanystumdwy, and its neighbours Criccieth and Porthmadog. Not surprisingly Plaid Cymru have held Dwyfor Meirionnydd comfortably in the four elections between 2010 and 2019.
The over-representation has been justified not by reference to language or party of course, but by the mountainous and difficult terrain of the Snowdonia National Park, partly covered by this seat. The upshot, though, has been a guaranteed seat for Plaid Cymru, who unlike most small parties are favoured, not hindered, by the electoral system as currently arranged. In the most recent boundary review, whose final recommendations published in June 2023 are likely come into force in a 2024 general election, the electorate numbers have finally been equalized across the UK. This has resulted in an overall reduction of seats in Wales by eight, and of course in major changes here in the most Welsh sub-region. The current Dwyfor Meirionnydd is to be extended to included more than half (59%) of the Arfon constituency, its boundary moving northwards to take in Caernarfon town itself and even a couple of wards beyond, Menai (opposite the Ynys Mon version) and Y Felinheli. The expanded boundaries of Dwyfor Meirionnydd will now include Llanberis with its eponymous pass and, literally above all, the highest mountain in Wales: Snowdon, or Yr Wyddfa, as the National Park committee voted in November 2022 to insist on. Arfon is in effect one of the eight abolished constituencies in Wales, and this represents a net loss of one seat for Plaid Cymru.
Nevertheless, Dwyfor Meirionnydd does still seem to have been drawn as if to maximize the Welsh speaking proportion of residents and electors, and not unconnectedly, it seems certain to remain the Nationalists’ safest seat. This has not always been the case, as a brief psephological history of this part of Wales shows. Like its neighbouring seats in Caernarvonshire, Merioneth passed through a long pre-World War Two Liberal stage and a post-war period of Labour support; Labour held Caernarvon from 1950 to February 1974 and Merioneth from 1951 to the same end date. This has never been good ground for the Tories; they have not won in ‘Merioneth’ since 1865. This is despite the existence of holiday resorts like Barmouth and Harlech, with its medieval castle, Tywyn and Aberdovey to the south; Criccieth and, down the Llyn peninsula, Abersoch and Pwllheli, long known for a Butlins holiday camp at Penychain. Dolgellau on the Mawddach estuary was the historic county town of Merionethshire, despite its population of just over 2,500.
But the largest centre of population (before the boundary extension) is the unique slate-mining town of Blaenau Ffestiniog, high in the hills, which has suffered from economic depression since many quarries closed after the Second World War. Slate tips hang over the town, which has the functional character of a single-industry community, even if its main source of employment here is in tourism connected with the history of that industry, such as the Ffestiniog steam railway and the slate mining museum at Llechwedd. It has some of the lowest property prices anywhere in Britain. Blaenau Ffestiniog was once solidly Labour, but Plaid Cymru or Independents now get most of the votes there. In fact it is very difficult to use local elections in Gwynedd council to work out the internal variations within Dwyfor Meirionnydd: in May 2022, 44 Plaid Cymru councillors were returned to the council, 23 Independents, and just one each for Labour and Liberal Democrats (in Hendre, Caernarfon, in the future but not the present seat, and Dolbenmaen respectively).
The demographic statistics for Dwyfor Meirionnydd throw up some interesting and unusual figures. Its attraction to holidaymakers and retirees is evident, although the boundary changes cause it to drop over 50 places in the ranks in terms of residents over 65 years of age, and over a fifth of residents classing themselves as retired on their economic status. Although overall its percentage of owner occupied housing is average, it has a high proportion of this fully owned, and a relatively low amount needing a mortgage or loan. It is in the top 25 seats for employment in agriculture, forestry or fishing, but even higher up the list for employed in accommodation and food service, a clear surrogate for the tourism trade. There are also very high numbers of skilled traders and small employers and self employed workers.
It is, of course overwhelmingly white, the second most of all seats in England and Wales, and it also ranks no.2 for those residents not possessing a passport. This is likely to be a function both of the age structure but also of the settled and perhaps insular element in the Dwyfor Meirionnydd seat. The suggestion that there are two distinct types of community, the coastal incomers and the deeply Welsh inland, may be summed up by the twin facts that it has only the 30th highest percentage of those born in Wales yet the second highest proportion of Welsh speakers (the most, after the forthcoming boundary changes). Further evidence for this lies in the Welsh speaking figures for wards (or electoral divisions). They are in a minority in Tywyn and Aberdovey, Abermaw (Barmouth), barely over half in Harlech and Llanbedr, and less than half even in parts of the Llyn peninsula such as Abersoch; but around 80% in many places elsewhere in Dwyfor Meirioonydd. Welsh speakers reach their peak around the town of Caernarfon, with wards such as Bethel and Cadnant exceeding 85%, so the boundary changes will substantially further increase the overall ‘Welshness’ of the redrawn seat, as the cosmopolitan Bangor section of Arfon will not be included.
In the last two general elections in Dwyfor Meirionnydd the Conservatives have kept station in second place behind Plaid Cymru, managing to achieve over 30% of the vote on each occasion. It is difficult to prove given the odd candidature pattern in local government elections, with the Conservatives only putting up seven candidates in the whole of Gwynedd and four within Dwyfor Meirionnydd in 2022, but it seems likely that their backing tends to come from the incomers, the coast, and the ‘holiday and retirement’ communities. The one place where their council vote in 2022 was not derisory was in Aberdyfi (Aberdovey), where they lost to an Independent by just 6 votes. This ward has the lowest share of Welsh speakers in the constituency (35.5%). Compare Llanbedrog gyda Mynytho electoral division on the Llyn: Independent 548 (95.4%), Conservative 27 (4.3%). But it has to be recognized that Gwynedd local elections are notoriously difficult to parse.
The Nationalists have clearly and successfully garnered most of the former Labour and Liberal support for nigh on thirty years now, and there seems no reason why they should not continue to represent this fortress for the foreseeable future. But it will be in one seat, not two. The announced retirement of Hywel Williams, the long serving member for Arfon, in November 2022 means that Liz Saville Roberts, selected for the ‘combined’ division, should seamlessly inherit an even safer seat – though likely with Labour not the Conservatives as the second placed challenger. In a way, then, the Boundary Commission has reduced Plaid Cymru representation by one; but, rather like the creation of Black majority districts in southern states in the USA, it could be also argued that they have at least guaranteed them one.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.7% 66/575
Owner occupied 68.5% 219/575
Private rented 16.0% 389/575
Social rented 15.5% 271/575
White 98.2% 3/575
Black 0.2% 568/575
Asian 0.6% 571/575
Managerial & professional 29.9% 359/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 211/575
Degree level 33.9% 234/575
No qualifications 17.5% 306/575
Students 5.1% 371/575
General Election 2019: Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Plaid Cymru Liz Saville Roberts 14,447 48.3 +3.2
Conservative Tomos Davies 9,707 32.4 +3.3
Labour Graham Hogg 3,998 13.4 -7.3
Brexit Party Louise Hughes 1,776 5.9 N/A
PC Majority 4,740 15.9 -0.1
2019 Registered electors 44,362
Turnout 29,928 67.5 -0.5
Plaid Cymru hold
Swing 0.1 PC to C
Boundary Changes
The new Dwyfor Meirionnydd will consist of
100% of the present Dwyfor Meirionnydd
59.1% of Arfon
5.1% of Clwyd South
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
In the USA ‘ethnic minority’ districts are created by law (the Voting Rights Act) to provide guaranteed representation for Black and Spanish-speaking Americans. Is the nearest thing to this in Britain the Welsh-speaking seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd. In 1983 the Boundary Commission originally proposed uniting Merioneth, as the seat was then known, with much of the Tory-held English-speaking Conway on the north coast. This caused a storm of protest, not least because it would have eliminated one of the two seats that Plaid Cymru then held. After an inquiry, the Commission decided to expand Merioneth only slightly, taking just the sparsely populated mountainous southern part of Aberconwy district, to become the clumsily named Meirionnydd Nant Conwy.
This arrangement was retained without revision by the next (1995) Commission report. Then, in the changes enacted before the 2010 election, the name changed but the principles seemed to remain the same. True, some 15,000 voters were added in the form of the Dwyfor district, but this still left the division undersized even by the standards appertaining in Wales, and the new territory, previously in the Caernarfon seat, included many of the symbolic centres of Welsh speaking culture: the Llyn peninsula, much of Snowdonia (though not yet the mountain itself), and the heartland of David Lloyd George such as his childhood home of Llanystumdwy, and its neighbours Criccieth and Porthmadog. Not surprisingly Plaid Cymru have held Dwyfor Meirionnydd comfortably in the four elections between 2010 and 2019.
The over-representation has been justified not by reference to language or party of course, but by the mountainous and difficult terrain of the Snowdonia National Park, partly covered by this seat. The upshot, though, has been a guaranteed seat for Plaid Cymru, who unlike most small parties are favoured, not hindered, by the electoral system as currently arranged. In the most recent boundary review, whose final recommendations published in June 2023 are likely come into force in a 2024 general election, the electorate numbers have finally been equalized across the UK. This has resulted in an overall reduction of seats in Wales by eight, and of course in major changes here in the most Welsh sub-region. The current Dwyfor Meirionnydd is to be extended to included more than half (59%) of the Arfon constituency, its boundary moving northwards to take in Caernarfon town itself and even a couple of wards beyond, Menai (opposite the Ynys Mon version) and Y Felinheli. The expanded boundaries of Dwyfor Meirionnydd will now include Llanberis with its eponymous pass and, literally above all, the highest mountain in Wales: Snowdon, or Yr Wyddfa, as the National Park committee voted in November 2022 to insist on. Arfon is in effect one of the eight abolished constituencies in Wales, and this represents a net loss of one seat for Plaid Cymru.
Nevertheless, Dwyfor Meirionnydd does still seem to have been drawn as if to maximize the Welsh speaking proportion of residents and electors, and not unconnectedly, it seems certain to remain the Nationalists’ safest seat. This has not always been the case, as a brief psephological history of this part of Wales shows. Like its neighbouring seats in Caernarvonshire, Merioneth passed through a long pre-World War Two Liberal stage and a post-war period of Labour support; Labour held Caernarvon from 1950 to February 1974 and Merioneth from 1951 to the same end date. This has never been good ground for the Tories; they have not won in ‘Merioneth’ since 1865. This is despite the existence of holiday resorts like Barmouth and Harlech, with its medieval castle, Tywyn and Aberdovey to the south; Criccieth and, down the Llyn peninsula, Abersoch and Pwllheli, long known for a Butlins holiday camp at Penychain. Dolgellau on the Mawddach estuary was the historic county town of Merionethshire, despite its population of just over 2,500.
But the largest centre of population (before the boundary extension) is the unique slate-mining town of Blaenau Ffestiniog, high in the hills, which has suffered from economic depression since many quarries closed after the Second World War. Slate tips hang over the town, which has the functional character of a single-industry community, even if its main source of employment here is in tourism connected with the history of that industry, such as the Ffestiniog steam railway and the slate mining museum at Llechwedd. It has some of the lowest property prices anywhere in Britain. Blaenau Ffestiniog was once solidly Labour, but Plaid Cymru or Independents now get most of the votes there. In fact it is very difficult to use local elections in Gwynedd council to work out the internal variations within Dwyfor Meirionnydd: in May 2022, 44 Plaid Cymru councillors were returned to the council, 23 Independents, and just one each for Labour and Liberal Democrats (in Hendre, Caernarfon, in the future but not the present seat, and Dolbenmaen respectively).
The demographic statistics for Dwyfor Meirionnydd throw up some interesting and unusual figures. Its attraction to holidaymakers and retirees is evident, although the boundary changes cause it to drop over 50 places in the ranks in terms of residents over 65 years of age, and over a fifth of residents classing themselves as retired on their economic status. Although overall its percentage of owner occupied housing is average, it has a high proportion of this fully owned, and a relatively low amount needing a mortgage or loan. It is in the top 25 seats for employment in agriculture, forestry or fishing, but even higher up the list for employed in accommodation and food service, a clear surrogate for the tourism trade. There are also very high numbers of skilled traders and small employers and self employed workers.
It is, of course overwhelmingly white, the second most of all seats in England and Wales, and it also ranks no.2 for those residents not possessing a passport. This is likely to be a function both of the age structure but also of the settled and perhaps insular element in the Dwyfor Meirionnydd seat. The suggestion that there are two distinct types of community, the coastal incomers and the deeply Welsh inland, may be summed up by the twin facts that it has only the 30th highest percentage of those born in Wales yet the second highest proportion of Welsh speakers (the most, after the forthcoming boundary changes). Further evidence for this lies in the Welsh speaking figures for wards (or electoral divisions). They are in a minority in Tywyn and Aberdovey, Abermaw (Barmouth), barely over half in Harlech and Llanbedr, and less than half even in parts of the Llyn peninsula such as Abersoch; but around 80% in many places elsewhere in Dwyfor Meirioonydd. Welsh speakers reach their peak around the town of Caernarfon, with wards such as Bethel and Cadnant exceeding 85%, so the boundary changes will substantially further increase the overall ‘Welshness’ of the redrawn seat, as the cosmopolitan Bangor section of Arfon will not be included.
In the last two general elections in Dwyfor Meirionnydd the Conservatives have kept station in second place behind Plaid Cymru, managing to achieve over 30% of the vote on each occasion. It is difficult to prove given the odd candidature pattern in local government elections, with the Conservatives only putting up seven candidates in the whole of Gwynedd and four within Dwyfor Meirionnydd in 2022, but it seems likely that their backing tends to come from the incomers, the coast, and the ‘holiday and retirement’ communities. The one place where their council vote in 2022 was not derisory was in Aberdyfi (Aberdovey), where they lost to an Independent by just 6 votes. This ward has the lowest share of Welsh speakers in the constituency (35.5%). Compare Llanbedrog gyda Mynytho electoral division on the Llyn: Independent 548 (95.4%), Conservative 27 (4.3%). But it has to be recognized that Gwynedd local elections are notoriously difficult to parse.
The Nationalists have clearly and successfully garnered most of the former Labour and Liberal support for nigh on thirty years now, and there seems no reason why they should not continue to represent this fortress for the foreseeable future. But it will be in one seat, not two. The announced retirement of Hywel Williams, the long serving member for Arfon, in November 2022 means that Liz Saville Roberts, selected for the ‘combined’ division, should seamlessly inherit an even safer seat – though likely with Labour not the Conservatives as the second placed challenger. In a way, then, the Boundary Commission has reduced Plaid Cymru representation by one; but, rather like the creation of Black majority districts in southern states in the USA, it could be also argued that they have at least guaranteed them one.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.7% 66/575
Owner occupied 68.5% 219/575
Private rented 16.0% 389/575
Social rented 15.5% 271/575
White 98.2% 3/575
Black 0.2% 568/575
Asian 0.6% 571/575
Managerial & professional 29.9% 359/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.0% 211/575
Degree level 33.9% 234/575
No qualifications 17.5% 306/575
Students 5.1% 371/575
General Election 2019: Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Plaid Cymru Liz Saville Roberts 14,447 48.3 +3.2
Conservative Tomos Davies 9,707 32.4 +3.3
Labour Graham Hogg 3,998 13.4 -7.3
Brexit Party Louise Hughes 1,776 5.9 N/A
PC Majority 4,740 15.9 -0.1
2019 Registered electors 44,362
Turnout 29,928 67.5 -0.5
Plaid Cymru hold
Swing 0.1 PC to C
Boundary Changes
The new Dwyfor Meirionnydd will consist of
100% of the present Dwyfor Meirionnydd
59.1% of Arfon
5.1% of Clwyd South
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Plaid Cymru | 23110 | 45.8% |
| Con | 13230 | 26.2% |
| Lab | 11541 | 22.9% |
| Brexit | 2558 | 5.1% |
| LD | 79 | 0.2% |
| | ||
| Majority | 9880 | 19.6% |