Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

[ntyuk1707]

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is a county constituency of the House of Commons covering the northernmost reaches of the island of Great Britain. The seat is the largest constituency in the UK - measuring 4555 square miles, it spans more than 80% of the total land area of Northern Ireland.

The seat covers the majority of the 'North Coast 500' tourist route, which is a scenic round-trip spanning over 500 miles from Inverness to John O' Groats and along the north-west coast of the Scottish Highlands.

Within the constituency are the historic counties of Caithness, Sutherland, Cromartyshire, much of Ross-shire and a small part of Inverness-shire.

Caithness is located in the north-eastern corner of the seat and represents 26% of electors despite covering less than 15% of the total land area. For the most part, the landscape of Caithness is flat and made up of rolling farmlands and moorlands. The constituency's two largest settlements, Thurso and Wick, are located here in addition to a number of dispersed coastal villages and sparsely populated moorlands in central and inland areas. Britain's most northerly point, Dunnet Head, is situated near to John O'Groats in the far north-east of Caithness, with the late Queen Mother's former residence of the Castle of Mey also being situated nearby. The social profile of the area is quite mixed, with deprivation in parts of Thurso, Wick and eastern coastal areas of the county, contrasting more affluence in remoter parts of central and northern Caithness and suburban areas on the periphery of Thurso and Wick.

For 203 of the past 250 years, Caithness has been represented by Whig, Liberal, SDP and Liberal Democrat Members of Parliament. Today, the area remains a relative stronghold of Liberalism, with the Liberal Democrats leading ahead of the SNP in the Thurso & Northwest Caithness ward with 27.5% of the vote to the SNP's 18% and in Wick & East Caithness ward on 30% of the vote to the SNP's 25% at last year's council elections, and Independent candidates performing well across both wards. The Conservatives led in a polling district covering rural moorland areas in the centre of county, while SNP performed stronger in eastern coastal areas.

It is estimated that Caithness rejected Scottish independence in 2014 with a 66% No vote. The Better Together campaign performed strongly in rural areas in the centre of the county, and polled over 60% of the vote in all areas apart from Wick, which had a No vote of approximately 58% No. At the 2016 EU membership referendum, it is estimated that the fishing town of Wick and its surrounding communities voted to leave the European Union.

South and west of Caithness, the county of Sutherland has been represented by Whig, Liberal, SDP and Liberal Democrat MPs for 141 of the past 250 years. The majority of the Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross constituency is covered by Sutherland, which represents 54% of the total land area despite only covering 15% of the seat's electorate. Across most of Sutherland and much of Caithness is the 'Flow Country', which is the largest blanket bog in Europe.

The East Sutherland & Edderton ward voted 36% Lib Dem to 26.5% SNP at last year's council election, while the more remote North, West and Central Sutherland ward voted 35% SNP to 28% Liberal Democrat, resulting in a slim Liberal Democrat lead across the county as a whole.

The eastern coastline of Sutherland includes the handsome and fairly prosperous tourist towns and villages of Brora, Golspie, Dornoch and Helmsdale. On the outskirts of Golpsie, the fantasy-esque Dunrobin Castle is the family seat of the Earl of Sutherland and Clan Sutherland. Moving into the more remote communities of northern and western Sutherland you enter the vast, desolate Flow Country - rocky hills surrounded by peatbogs and several lochs and rivers which mark the main routes up to the Atlantic shore. Many villages and hamlets in this region are hotly contested between the SNP and Liberal Democrats, with the exception of the SNP stronghold of Lochinver in the far-west of the county, which is estimated to have voted decisively in favour of Scottish independence with an over 70% Yes vote at the 2014 independence referendum, countering a stronger No vote across the rest of the county.

Overall, Sutherland rejected independence by approximately 61% No at the 2014 independence referendum, and like Caithness, this area is generally a better area for the Liberal Democrats than elsewhere in the constituency.

One of the longest serving MPs for the former Caithness and Sutherland constituency was Robert Mclennan, who won the seat as a member of the Labour Party in 1966 with a 64 vote majority ahead of the Liberals. Mr Mclennan won re-election as a Labour MP in four more consecutive elections up to the 1983 general election when he stood for the SDP and won the seat with a much-increased 6,843 vote majority. By 1992, Mr Mclennan won the seat as a Liberal Democrat MP, which he held in 1997 when the boundaries of the seat were re-configured to include the Tain and Easter Ross ward. The current MP for the area, Jamie Stone, served as Liberal Democrat MSP for Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross from 1999 until 2011, and was elected as MP for the area at the 2017 snap general election.

The 'Easter Ross' component of this constituency has been expanded from areas around northern Cromarty Firth to include parts of central Ross-shire and western Cromarty-shire as well as communities around Beauly in Inverness-shire. Cromarty Firth and Tain & Easter Ross wards are set to remain within the constituency. These areas are distinctly better for the SNP than elsewhere in the constituency, with the SNP leading ahead of the Lib Dems by 29% to 28% in Cromarty ward and 31% to 21.5% in Tain & Easter Ross ward at last year's local elections, and overall performing  stronger in the towns of Tain and Alness. The Liberal Democrats managed to top the poll in Evanton, Invergordon, Portmahomack, Inver and Hill of Fearn. 

Socially, this area has a fairly high rate of social deprivation, particularly in the towns of Balintore, Invergordon and Alness, and it is significantly more densely populated than Caithness and Sutherland. Despite a respectable performance by the Liberal Democrats at the 2022 local council elections in Cromarty ward, it is estimated that Cromarty ward voted 52% in favour of independence at the 2014 independence referendum, whilst Tain & Easter Ross voted 52% against independence, leading to a highly marginal result at the referendum across these two wards. 

The expansion of the constituency into western parts of Cromarty-shire, central Ross-shire and northern parts of Inverness-shire means that the "Easter Ross" component of the seat increases from representing 35% of the constituency's total electorate to 59% of electors. The newly added areas include Black Isle, Dingwall, Seaforth and Beauly on the periphery of Inverness, in addition to central parts of Ross and western Cromartyshire from Strathpeffer and Marybank up through rugged mountains towards the fishing village and port of Ullapool on the Atlantic Ocean.

At the 2022 local elections, Black Isle had an SNP vote of 25% to 16% for the Liberal Democrats while Dingwall & Seaforth ward voted 32% SNP to 17% Liberal Democrat and Wester Ross, Lochalsh & Strathpeffer voted 41% SNP to 13% Liberal Democrat. Matching this, at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated that Black Isle ward voted 56% No and that Dingwall & Seaforth ward voted 51% No, whilst Beauly voted approximately 50% No and central Ross and Cromarty-shire from Marybank to Ullapool voted 55% Yes. The social profile of this area similarly shifts from reasonable prosperity in Black Isle to social deprivation in Dingwall, and geographic isolation in central parts of Ross-shire. 

The current MP for most of these areas is the SNP's Ian Blackford, and in the Scottish Parliament, for Dingwall, Seaforth, Beauly and Black Isle, it is senior SNP figure Kate Forbes, who unsuccessfully ran for leadership of the party earlier this year. Changing fortunes for the SNP in Scotland coupled with a stronger Liberal Democrat vote in Caithness and Sutherland makes this new Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross constituency a highly marginal contest between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, and gaining Conservative tactical votes will be crucial for the Liberal Democrats to succeed here, especially in the newly added sections of the constituency.

In 2019, under the old boundaries which excluded the nearly 25% of new electors added to the constituency from Ross-shire, Cromarty-shire and Inverness-shire, the Lib Dems' Jamie Stone won the constituency narrowly out with 37.2% of the vote to the SNP's 36.6%, with the Conservatives in third place with 16.5%, Labour on 6.2% and the Brexit Party on 3.6%.

In the 2014 independence referendum, the old Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross seat is estimated to have voted 59% against Scottish independence, while for the new seat the No vote would have been approximately 57% No. 

The Scottish Parliamentary election of 2021 indicated a tactical squeeze of unionist voters in this area towards the Liberal Democrats, as under less favourable boundaries the vote share of other unionist parties was 19.5% - nearly 7% lower than the 2019 general election. If the party is able to continue its squeeze on the Conservative vote in this constituency as they have done in seats like Edinburgh West and North East Fife, then they have a strong chance of winning this new constituency.

One early indicator of voting behaviour here will be the forthcoming Tain and Easter Ross ward by-election, due to be held in 2 weeks. 

[iain]

Great profile - I believe your original estimates of the Independence Referendum vote had ‘yes’ carrying Wick. What made you change your opinion there?

[batman]

Just one very minor thing - it is probably a good idea to distinguish even more clearly between Britain & mainland Britain, although perhaps I am being over-picky. A slightly bigger point; it would not be the worst idea to convey, as Robert's profile of this constituency some years ago did very well, the sheer rural desertedness of Sutherland. I remember having a customer from there (he bought a Gibson Les Paul mail order, and then the poor chap had to send it back to us for a minor repair simply because he couldn't unlock the case........) and thinking what are the chances of getting a customer from so far away here in London. But it's a good detailed profile, as all of yours are.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 20.2% 129/650
Owner-occupied 65.0% 377/650
Private rented 8.6% 620/650
Social rented 23.3% 140/650
White 99.2% 1/650
Black 0.1% 637/650
Asian 0.5% 646/650
Managerial & professional 25.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.5%
Employed in water supply 2.8% 1/650
Degree level 21.1% 469/650
No qualifications 29.8% 100/650
Students 4.7% 645/650



2019 General election: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Liberal Democrats Jamie Stone 11,705 37.2 +1.4
SNP Karl Rosie 11,501 36.6 +7.4
Conservative Andrew Sinclair 5,176 16.5 -6.1
Labour Cheryl McDonald 1,936 6.2 -6.2
Brexit Party Sandra Skinner 1,139 3.6 N/A

LD Majority 204 0.6 -6.0

Turnout 31,457 67.0 +1.1

Liberal Democrats hold
Swing 3.0 LD to SNP



Boundary Changes
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is comprised of
100% of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
47.4% of Ross, Skye & Lochaber
3.2% of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/caithness_sutherland_and_easter_ross.pdf

2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)

SNP	20498	38.9%
LD	17710	33.6%
Con	9139	17.3%
Lab	2799	5.3%
Brexit	1510	2.9%
Green	336	0.6%
Oths	728	1.4%
Majority	2788	5.3%

[bjornhattan]

The "water supply" figure is actually for a very different industry - bizarrely the census lumps waste management in with this and so I believe the high proportion working in water supply are actually involved in activities at Dounreay. This is supported by the fact the areas with the greatest proportion of "water supply" workers tend to be the suburbs of Thurso and the villages to the west. Dounreay apparently had other demographic effects too - according to Jamie Stone, it did much to raise aspirations at the local schools (and also seems to have made him very pro nuclear to a much greater extent than some in his party).

(As an aside, at the most recent census, it will certainly have lost 1st place - Sellafield has been reclassified from "manufacture of basic metals" to "waste management" and therefore Copeland district now has roughly 20% employment in the field with Whitehaven & Workington constituency likely to have a figure of circa 15%)

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 14, 2023 21:33:27 GMT iain said:

Great profile - I believe your original estimates of the Independence Referendum vote had ‘yes’ carrying Wick. What made you change your opinion there?

Correct. The original estimate was based purely on hearsay from independence campaigners who claimed that Wick had voted Yes to independence, however breaking down local election data and demographic data in comparison to other parts of Caithness would suggest the town did, in fact, vote No to independence by a fair margin. 

[Deleted]

The days when Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross was represented by John Thurso and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine by Sir Robert Hill Smith feel like a lifetime ago.

You still have blue bloods in powerful positions up here - Edward Mountain, and Alexander Burnett in Aberdeenshire.

The liberals are struggling in the Celtic fringe - they barely held this seat in 2019, while winning nothing in Wales.

[iain]

Sept 14, 2023 23:26:08 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Sept 14, 2023 21:33:27 GMT iain said:

Great profile - I believe your original estimates of the Independence Referendum vote had ‘yes’ carrying Wick. What made you change your opinion there?

Correct. The original estimate was based purely on hearsay from independence campaigners who claimed that Wick had voted Yes to independence, however breaking down local election data and demographic data in comparison to other parts of Caithness would suggest the town did, in fact, vote No to independence by a fair margin. 

I’d have thought the demographics would back up a strong Yes vote?

And though I can see the temptation, I’d have thought that giving much (or even any) weight to local election results in the Highlands would be rather foolish.

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 15, 2023 7:35:33 GMT iain said:

Sept 14, 2023 23:26:08 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Correct. The original estimate was based purely on hearsay from independence campaigners who claimed that Wick had voted Yes to independence, however breaking down local election data and demographic data in comparison to other parts of Caithness would suggest the town did, in fact, vote No to independence by a fair margin. 

I’d have thought the demographics would back up a strong Yes vote?

And though I can see the temptation, I’d have thought that giving much (or even any) weight to local election results in the Highlands would be rather foolish.

It has similar rates of home ownership, social housing and deprivation to Thurso, as well as a similar age and religious profile. It is not too dissimilar to Girvan in South Ayrshire in its demographic profile, a town which is also estimated to have voted 56% No to independence. If you can be more specific about what part of its demographics means it had a strong Yes vote then please let me know.

[iain]

Sept 15, 2023 14:47:53 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Sept 15, 2023 7:35:33 GMT iain said:

I’d have thought the demographics would back up a strong Yes vote?

And though I can see the temptation, I’d have thought that giving much (or even any) weight to local election results in the Highlands would be rather foolish.

It has similar rates of home ownership, social housing and deprivation to Thurso, as well as a similar age and religious profile. It is not too dissimilar to Girvan in South Ayrshire in its demographic profile, a town which is also estimated to have voted 56% No to independence. If you can be more specific about what part of its demographics means it had a strong Yes vote then please let me know.

I just thought it had quite high levels of social renting (as does Thurso I believe) and is generally rather deprived. I'm talking the towns themselves here, not the ward as a whole - am happy to be corrected though.

Either way, I think you would be best off ignoring local election results in this council area (possibly excluding Inverness).

[spinach]

Most scenic 1/650

Probably the most beautiful constituency in the UK, with neighbouring Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire a close second.

I would happily live in one of the villages/small towns along the Moray Firth, where you have the best of both worlds. The rugged wilderness is on your doorstep without the remoteness and high rainfalls. Close to the amenities of Inverness, and drier/sunnier weather due to the rain shadow like affect.

[carlton43]

Sept 17, 2023 19:15:14 GMT spinach said:

Most scenic 1/650

Probably the most beautiful constituency in the UK, with neighbouring Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire a close second.

I would happily live in one of the villages/small towns along the Moray Firth, where you have the best of both worlds. The rugged wilderness is on your doorstep without the remoteness and high rainfalls. Close to the amenities of Inverness, and drier/sunnier weather due to the rain shadow like affect.

Oh No.  Wester Ross is much more scenic and Argyll and Bute better again.

[Sandy]

Sept 14, 2023 19:31:42 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is a county constituency of the House of Commons covering the northernmost reaches of the island of Great Britain. The seat is the largest constituency in the UK - measuring 4555 square miles, it spans more than 80% of the total land area of Northern Ireland.

The seat covers the majority of the 'North Coast 500' tourist route, which is a scenic round-trip spanning over 500 miles from Inverness to John O' Groats and along the north-west coast of the Scottish Highlands.

Within the constituency are the historic counties of Caithness, Sutherland, Cromartyshire, much of Ross-shire and a small part of Inverness-shire.

Caithness is located in the north-eastern corner of the seat and represents 26% of electors despite covering less than 15% of the total land area. For the most part, the landscape of Caithness is flat and made up of rolling farmlands and moorlands. The constituency's two largest settlements, Thurso and Wick, are located here in addition to a number of dispersed coastal villages and sparsely populated moorlands in central and inland areas. Britain's most northerly point, Dunnet Head, is situated near to John O'Groats in the far north-east of Caithness, with the late Queen Mother's former residence of the Castle of Mey also being situated nearby. The social profile of the area is quite mixed, with deprivation in parts of Thurso, Wick and eastern coastal areas of the county, contrasting more affluence in remoter parts of central and northern Caithness and suburban areas on the periphery of Thurso and Wick.

For 203 of the past 250 years, Caithness has been represented by Whig, Liberal, SDP and Liberal Democrat Members of Parliament. Today, the area remains a relative stronghold of Liberalism, with the Liberal Democrats leading ahead of the SNP in the Thurso & Northwest Caithness ward with 27.5% of the vote to the SNP's 18% and in Wick & East Caithness ward on 30% of the vote to the SNP's 25% at last year's council elections, and Independent candidates performing well across both wards. The Conservatives led in a polling district covering rural moorland areas in the centre of county, while SNP performed stronger in eastern coastal areas.

It is estimated that Caithness rejected Scottish independence in 2014 with a 66% No vote. The Better Together campaign performed strongly in rural areas in the centre of the county, and polled over 60% of the vote in all areas apart from Wick, which had a No vote of approximately 58% No. At the 2016 EU membership referendum, it is estimated that the fishing town of Wick and its surrounding communities voted to leave the European Union.

South and west of Caithness, the county of Sutherland has been represented by Whig, Liberal, SDP and Liberal Democrat MPs for 141 of the past 250 years. The majority of the Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross constituency is covered by Sutherland, which represents 54% of the total land area despite only covering 15% of the seat's electorate. Across most of Sutherland and much of Caithness is the 'Flow Country', which is the largest blanket bog in Europe.

The East Sutherland & Edderton ward voted 36% Lib Dem to 26.5% SNP at last year's council election, while the more remote North, West and Central Sutherland ward voted 35% SNP to 28% Liberal Democrat, resulting in a slim Liberal Democrat lead across the county as a whole.

The eastern coastline of Sutherland includes the handsome and fairly prosperous tourist towns and villages of Brora, Golspie, Dornoch and Helmsdale. On the outskirts of Golpsie, the fantasy-esque Dunrobin Castle is the family seat of the Earl of Sutherland and Clan Sutherland. Moving into the more remote communities of northern and western Sutherland you enter the vast, desolate Flow Country - rocky hills surrounded by peatbogs and several lochs and rivers which mark the main routes up to the Atlantic shore. Many villages and hamlets in this region are hotly contested between the SNP and Liberal Democrats, with the exception of the SNP stronghold of Lochinver in the far-west of the county, which is estimated to have voted decisively in favour of Scottish independence with an over 70% Yes vote at the 2014 independence referendum, countering a stronger No vote across the rest of the county.

Overall, Sutherland rejected independence by approximately 61% No at the 2014 independence referendum, and like Caithness, this area is generally a better area for the Liberal Democrats than elsewhere in the constituency.

One of the longest serving MPs for the former Caithness and Sutherland constituency was Robert Mclennan, who won the seat as a member of the Labour Party in 1966 with a 64 vote majority ahead of the Liberals. Mr Mclennan won re-election as a Labour MP in four more consecutive elections up to the 1983 general election when he stood for the SDP and won the seat with a much-increased 6,843 vote majority. By 1992, Mr Mclennan won the seat as a Liberal Democrat MP, which he held in 1997 when the boundaries of the seat were re-configured to include the Tain and Easter Ross ward. The current MP for the area, Jamie Stone, served as Liberal Democrat MSP for Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross from 1999 until 2011, and was elected as MP for the area at the 2017 snap general election.

The 'Easter Ross' component of this constituency has been expanded from areas around northern Cromarty Firth to include parts of central Ross-shire and western Cromarty-shire as well as communities around Beauly in Inverness-shire. Cromarty Firth and Tain & Easter Ross wards are set to remain within the constituency. These areas are distinctly better for the SNP than elsewhere in the constituency, with the SNP leading ahead of the Lib Dems by 29% to 28% in Cromarty ward and 31% to 21.5% in Tain & Easter Ross ward at last year's local elections, and overall performing  stronger in the towns of Tain and Alness. The Liberal Democrats managed to top the poll in Evanton, Invergordon, Portmahomack, Inver and Hill of Fearn. 

Socially, this area has a fairly high rate of social deprivation, particularly in the towns of Balintore, Invergordon and Alness, and it is significantly more densely populated than Caithness and Sutherland. Despite a respectable performance by the Liberal Democrats at the 2022 local council elections in Cromarty ward, it is estimated that Cromarty ward voted 52% in favour of independence at the 2014 independence referendum, whilst Tain & Easter Ross voted 52% against independence, leading to a highly marginal result at the referendum across these two wards. 

The expansion of the constituency into western parts of Cromarty-shire, central Ross-shire and northern parts of Inverness-shire means that the "Easter Ross" component of the seat increases from representing 35% of the constituency's total electorate to 59% of electors. The newly added areas include Black Isle, Dingwall, Seaforth and Beauly on the periphery of Inverness, in addition to central parts of Ross and western Cromartyshire from Strathpeffer and Marybank up through rugged mountains towards the fishing village and port of Ullapool on the Atlantic Ocean.

At the 2022 local elections, Black Isle had an SNP vote of 25% to 16% for the Liberal Democrats while Dingwall & Seaforth ward voted 32% SNP to 17% Liberal Democrat and Wester Ross, Lochalsh & Strathpeffer voted 41% SNP to 13% Liberal Democrat. Matching this, at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated that Black Isle ward voted 56% No and that Dingwall & Seaforth ward voted 51% No, whilst Beauly voted approximately 50% No and central Ross and Cromarty-shire from Marybank to Ullapool voted 55% Yes. The social profile of this area similarly shifts from reasonable prosperity in Black Isle to social deprivation in Dingwall, and geographic isolation in central parts of Ross-shire. 

The current MP for most of these areas is the SNP's Ian Blackford, and in the Scottish Parliament, for Dingwall, Seaforth, Beauly and Black Isle, it is senior SNP figure Kate Forbes, who unsuccessfully ran for leadership of the party earlier this year. Changing fortunes for the SNP in Scotland coupled with a stronger Liberal Democrat vote in Caithness and Sutherland makes this new Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross constituency a highly marginal contest between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, and gaining Conservative tactical votes will be crucial for the Liberal Democrats to succeed here, especially in the newly added sections of the constituency.

In 2019, under the old boundaries which excluded the nearly 25% of new electors added to the constituency from Ross-shire, Cromarty-shire and Inverness-shire, the Lib Dems' Jamie Stone won the constituency narrowly out with 37.2% of the vote to the SNP's 36.6%, with the Conservatives in third place with 16.5%, Labour on 6.2% and the Brexit Party on 3.6%.

In the 2014 independence referendum, the old Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross seat is estimated to have voted 59% against Scottish independence, while for the new seat the No vote would have been approximately 57% No. 

The Scottish Parliamentary election of 2021 indicated a tactical squeeze of unionist voters in this area towards the Liberal Democrats, as under less favourable boundaries the vote share of other unionist parties was 19.5% - nearly 7% lower than the 2019 general election. If the party is able to continue its squeeze on the Conservative vote in this constituency as they have done in seats like Edinburgh West and North East Fife, then they have a strong chance of winning this new constituency.

One early indicator of voting behaviour here will be the forthcoming Tain and Easter Ross ward by-election, due to be held in 2 weeks. 

Any particular reason for having the yes vote in Lochinver so high?

(I ask because it irks me, being a native of the same parish ☹️)

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 22, 2023 21:29:22 GMT Sandy said:

Sept 14, 2023 19:31:42 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is a county constituency of the House of Commons covering the northernmost reaches of the island of Great Britain. The seat is the largest constituency in the UK - measuring 4555 square miles, it spans more than 80% of the total land area of Northern Ireland.

The seat covers the majority of the 'North Coast 500' tourist route, which is a scenic round-trip spanning over 500 miles from Inverness to John O' Groats and along the north-west coast of the Scottish Highlands.

Within the constituency are the historic counties of Caithness, Sutherland, Cromartyshire, much of Ross-shire and a small part of Inverness-shire.

Caithness is located in the north-eastern corner of the seat and represents 26% of electors despite covering less than 15% of the total land area. For the most part, the landscape of Caithness is flat and made up of rolling farmlands and moorlands. The constituency's two largest settlements, Thurso and Wick, are located here in addition to a number of dispersed coastal villages and sparsely populated moorlands in central and inland areas. Britain's most northerly point, Dunnet Head, is situated near to John O'Groats in the far north-east of Caithness, with the late Queen Mother's former residence of the Castle of Mey also being situated nearby. The social profile of the area is quite mixed, with deprivation in parts of Thurso, Wick and eastern coastal areas of the county, contrasting more affluence in remoter parts of central and northern Caithness and suburban areas on the periphery of Thurso and Wick.

For 203 of the past 250 years, Caithness has been represented by Whig, Liberal, SDP and Liberal Democrat Members of Parliament. Today, the area remains a relative stronghold of Liberalism, with the Liberal Democrats leading ahead of the SNP in the Thurso & Northwest Caithness ward with 27.5% of the vote to the SNP's 18% and in Wick & East Caithness ward on 30% of the vote to the SNP's 25% at last year's council elections, and Independent candidates performing well across both wards. The Conservatives led in a polling district covering rural moorland areas in the centre of county, while SNP performed stronger in eastern coastal areas.

It is estimated that Caithness rejected Scottish independence in 2014 with a 66% No vote. The Better Together campaign performed strongly in rural areas in the centre of the county, and polled over 60% of the vote in all areas apart from Wick, which had a No vote of approximately 58% No. At the 2016 EU membership referendum, it is estimated that the fishing town of Wick and its surrounding communities voted to leave the European Union.

South and west of Caithness, the county of Sutherland has been represented by Whig, Liberal, SDP and Liberal Democrat MPs for 141 of the past 250 years. The majority of the Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross constituency is covered by Sutherland, which represents 54% of the total land area despite only covering 15% of the seat's electorate. Across most of Sutherland and much of Caithness is the 'Flow Country', which is the largest blanket bog in Europe.

The East Sutherland & Edderton ward voted 36% Lib Dem to 26.5% SNP at last year's council election, while the more remote North, West and Central Sutherland ward voted 35% SNP to 28% Liberal Democrat, resulting in a slim Liberal Democrat lead across the county as a whole.

The eastern coastline of Sutherland includes the handsome and fairly prosperous tourist towns and villages of Brora, Golspie, Dornoch and Helmsdale. On the outskirts of Golpsie, the fantasy-esque Dunrobin Castle is the family seat of the Earl of Sutherland and Clan Sutherland. Moving into the more remote communities of northern and western Sutherland you enter the vast, desolate Flow Country - rocky hills surrounded by peatbogs and several lochs and rivers which mark the main routes up to the Atlantic shore. Many villages and hamlets in this region are hotly contested between the SNP and Liberal Democrats, with the exception of the SNP stronghold of Lochinver in the far-west of the county, which is estimated to have voted decisively in favour of Scottish independence with an over 70% Yes vote at the 2014 independence referendum, countering a stronger No vote across the rest of the county.

Overall, Sutherland rejected independence by approximately 61% No at the 2014 independence referendum, and like Caithness, this area is generally a better area for the Liberal Democrats than elsewhere in the constituency.

One of the longest serving MPs for the former Caithness and Sutherland constituency was Robert Mclennan, who won the seat as a member of the Labour Party in 1966 with a 64 vote majority ahead of the Liberals. Mr Mclennan won re-election as a Labour MP in four more consecutive elections up to the 1983 general election when he stood for the SDP and won the seat with a much-increased 6,843 vote majority. By 1992, Mr Mclennan won the seat as a Liberal Democrat MP, which he held in 1997 when the boundaries of the seat were re-configured to include the Tain and Easter Ross ward. The current MP for the area, Jamie Stone, served as Liberal Democrat MSP for Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross from 1999 until 2011, and was elected as MP for the area at the 2017 snap general election.

The 'Easter Ross' component of this constituency has been expanded from areas around northern Cromarty Firth to include parts of central Ross-shire and western Cromarty-shire as well as communities around Beauly in Inverness-shire. Cromarty Firth and Tain & Easter Ross wards are set to remain within the constituency. These areas are distinctly better for the SNP than elsewhere in the constituency, with the SNP leading ahead of the Lib Dems by 29% to 28% in Cromarty ward and 31% to 21.5% in Tain & Easter Ross ward at last year's local elections, and overall performing  stronger in the towns of Tain and Alness. The Liberal Democrats managed to top the poll in Evanton, Invergordon, Portmahomack, Inver and Hill of Fearn. 

Socially, this area has a fairly high rate of social deprivation, particularly in the towns of Balintore, Invergordon and Alness, and it is significantly more densely populated than Caithness and Sutherland. Despite a respectable performance by the Liberal Democrats at the 2022 local council elections in Cromarty ward, it is estimated that Cromarty ward voted 52% in favour of independence at the 2014 independence referendum, whilst Tain & Easter Ross voted 52% against independence, leading to a highly marginal result at the referendum across these two wards. 

The expansion of the constituency into western parts of Cromarty-shire, central Ross-shire and northern parts of Inverness-shire means that the "Easter Ross" component of the seat increases from representing 35% of the constituency's total electorate to 59% of electors. The newly added areas include Black Isle, Dingwall, Seaforth and Beauly on the periphery of Inverness, in addition to central parts of Ross and western Cromartyshire from Strathpeffer and Marybank up through rugged mountains towards the fishing village and port of Ullapool on the Atlantic Ocean.

At the 2022 local elections, Black Isle had an SNP vote of 25% to 16% for the Liberal Democrats while Dingwall & Seaforth ward voted 32% SNP to 17% Liberal Democrat and Wester Ross, Lochalsh & Strathpeffer voted 41% SNP to 13% Liberal Democrat. Matching this, at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, it is estimated that Black Isle ward voted 56% No and that Dingwall & Seaforth ward voted 51% No, whilst Beauly voted approximately 50% No and central Ross and Cromarty-shire from Marybank to Ullapool voted 55% Yes. The social profile of this area similarly shifts from reasonable prosperity in Black Isle to social deprivation in Dingwall, and geographic isolation in central parts of Ross-shire. 

The current MP for most of these areas is the SNP's Ian Blackford, and in the Scottish Parliament, for Dingwall, Seaforth, Beauly and Black Isle, it is senior SNP figure Kate Forbes, who unsuccessfully ran for leadership of the party earlier this year. Changing fortunes for the SNP in Scotland coupled with a stronger Liberal Democrat vote in Caithness and Sutherland makes this new Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross constituency a highly marginal contest between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, and gaining Conservative tactical votes will be crucial for the Liberal Democrats to succeed here, especially in the newly added sections of the constituency.

In 2019, under the old boundaries which excluded the nearly 25% of new electors added to the constituency from Ross-shire, Cromarty-shire and Inverness-shire, the Lib Dems' Jamie Stone won the constituency narrowly out with 37.2% of the vote to the SNP's 36.6%, with the Conservatives in third place with 16.5%, Labour on 6.2% and the Brexit Party on 3.6%.

In the 2014 independence referendum, the old Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross seat is estimated to have voted 59% against Scottish independence, while for the new seat the No vote would have been approximately 57% No. 

The Scottish Parliamentary election of 2021 indicated a tactical squeeze of unionist voters in this area towards the Liberal Democrats, as under less favourable boundaries the vote share of other unionist parties was 19.5% - nearly 7% lower than the 2019 general election. If the party is able to continue its squeeze on the Conservative vote in this constituency as they have done in seats like Edinburgh West and North East Fife, then they have a strong chance of winning this new constituency.

One early indicator of voting behaviour here will be the forthcoming Tain and Easter Ross ward by-election, due to be held in 2 weeks. 

Any particular reason for having the yes vote in Lochinver so high?

(I ask because it irks me, being a native of the same parish ☹️)

Higher rates of social renting and irreligion plus a very strong SNP vote in local election data. 

Ullapool and Lochinver would appear to be among the most pro-independence settlements on mainland Scotland. 

[Sandy]

Sept 23, 2023 14:38:46 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Sept 22, 2023 21:29:22 GMT Sandy said:

Any particular reason for having the yes vote in Lochinver so high?

(I ask because it irks me, being a native of the same parish ☹️)

Higher rates of social renting and irreligion plus a very strong SNP vote in local election data. 

Ullapool and Lochinver would appear to be among the most pro-independence settlements on mainland Scotland. 

Unsurprising and also depressing, Lochinver was a prosperous and deeply religious fishing village not too long ago.

[iain]

Sept 23, 2023 14:38:46 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Sept 22, 2023 21:29:22 GMT Sandy said:

Any particular reason for having the yes vote in Lochinver so high?

(I ask because it irks me, being a native of the same parish ☹️)

Higher rates of social renting and irreligion plus a very strong SNP vote in local election data. 

Ullapool and Lochinver would appear to be among the most pro-independence settlements on mainland Scotland. 

Okay so this is a great example of what I've said to you a few times about the silliness of relying on local election data in the Highlands. The SNP vote was super high in Lochinver in the locals, far higher than elsewhere in NW & Central Sutherland, but this is *almost certainly* down to the fact that the SNP candidate Marianne Hutchison is from Lochinver. Similarly the Lib Dem vote was much higher in Bonar Bridge, the home of their candidate.

Your work on localising the referendum result is fantastic, but I think your reliance on local election data has massively thrown off your data in the Highlands.

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 23, 2023 15:03:19 GMT iain said:

Sept 23, 2023 14:38:46 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Higher rates of social renting and irreligion plus a very strong SNP vote in local election data. 

Ullapool and Lochinver would appear to be among the most pro-independence settlements on mainland Scotland. 

Okay so this is a great example of what I've said to you a few times about the silliness of relying on local election data in the Highlands. The SNP vote was super high in Lochinver in the locals, far higher than elsewhere in NW & Central Sutherland, but this is *almost certainly* down to the fact that the SNP candidate Marianne Hutchison is from Lochinver. Similarly the Lib Dem vote was much higher in Bonar Bridge, the home of their candidate.

Your work on localising the referendum result is fantastic, but I think your reliance on local election data has massively thrown off your data in the Highlands.

And yet the SNP managed to win nearly twice as many votes as unionist parties after the allocation of the independent vote in the Lochinver polling district  in 2017 when they stood a candidate from Invergordon here. 

[carlton43]

Sept 23, 2023 15:02:54 GMT Sandy said:

Sept 23, 2023 14:38:46 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Higher rates of social renting and irreligion plus a very strong SNP vote in local election data. 

Ullapool and Lochinver would appear to be among the most pro-independence settlements on mainland Scotland. 

Unsurprising and also depressing, Lochinver was a prosperous and deeply religious fishing village not too long ago.

Lochinver is on a road that seems to go forever (and going north it does go on forever) and with the sister communities of Achmelvic and Strathan, have always seemed very gloomy and depressing and even just a bit sinister.

[Sandy]

Sept 23, 2023 15:27:01 GMT carlton43 said:

Sept 23, 2023 15:02:54 GMT Sandy said:

Unsurprising and also depressing, Lochinver was a prosperous and deeply religious fishing village not too long ago.

Lochinver is on a road that seems to go forever (and going north it does go on forever) and with the sister communities of Achmelvic and Strathan, have always seemed very gloomy and depressing and even just a bit sinister.

Carry on past Achmelvich and you get to me!

Obviously I’m biased, but I think Central Sutherland around Altnaharra and Crask is far more gloomy with it’s vast bleak moors and no sea.

[ntyuk1707]

Tain & Easter Ross by-election (30 September 2023) with the reallocation of Independent votes:

• Liberal Democrats: 847 (40.8%)
• Scottish National Party: 606 (29.2%)
• Conservative and Unionist Party: 354 (17.1%)
• Labour Party: 140 (6.7%)
• Scottish Green Party: 92 (4.4%)
• Scottish Libertarian Party: 37 (1.8%)

Very good showing for the Liberal Democrats in a ward which should be worse for them compared to the wider constituency.