Post by Robert Waller on Sept 13, 2023 23:06:23 GMT
The constituency of Braintree is essentially located in north-central Essex. To its west is Saffron Walden (now to be NW Essex) and to its east the seat of Harwich & North Essex. Braintree is situated entirely inland and shares a border with the county of Suffolk. Braintree has only been a name of a constituency since 1974, when it was carved mainly out of the former Maldon division. Then in 2010 Braintree itself was divided as an extra seat of Witham was created. At first it seemed likely that more significant boundary changes would follow before the next General Election, but as will be seen below the Commission had second thoughts and proposed relatively minor adjustments.
Braintree covers a very Conservative part of the country. In 2019 it was held by James Cleverly, later to become a senior member of the initial Truss Cabinet in September 2022, with a majority of 24,673 and a 67.5% share of the vote; this meant that the seat ranked 17th in the table of safe Conservative seats. There were actually five Essex seats with even larger percentage majorities in 2019, but Braintree’s result was still quite dramatic bearing in mind that Labour actually won here (on somewhat different boundaries) in 1997 and 2001. This is an indication of the broad geographical appeal attained by Tony Blair’s party in its early years, but it is also true that Braintree is socially and economically far from an elite constituency. On many of the key statistical indicators it lies in the middling ranges: on housing tenure, occupation, age structure and ethnic makeup it is typical of the nation as a whole. Yes, there are more builders than average; and yes, an unusually high proportion of its residents completed their educational qualifications with decent GCSEs at age 16, rather than going in to take degrees. But there is little in the demographic figures to explain why Braintree has become one of the safest Tory seats.
One reason lies in its response to a great issue in recent general elections. It is estimated that around 61.5% of electors in this seat voted to leave the EU in 2016. This figure is, of course, well above the national average – but it was surpassed in many parts of the east of England. Therein, however lies another clue. There are still important regional factors in British elections: consider the strength of Labour in Merseyside, for example regardless of the class, housing of educational variables within individual seats. Even controlling for Euroscepticism, East Anglia and Essex have proved increasingly fruitful ground for Conservatism over several decades; and population growth seems to have helped the Tories too. The general weakness of the Liberal Democrats and Greens in much of the region, including this area, also strengthens the Conservative dominance.
Although not particularly oversized at just over 75,000 electors, the Braintree constituency has a number of clear examples of new housing development, of which the most spectacular is Great Notley, almost entirely a 21st century creation and now housing 8,000 souls, situated just to the south west of Braintree itself. In the most recent district council elections, in May 2023, the top Conservative polled over 54% in the ward covering Great Notley compared with Labour’s 22%. This is not, however, an unusual pattern. In May 2019, for example, overall 26 Conservative councillors were elected within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat to just one for Labour – in Bocking North ward. Bocking has long been regarded as Braintree town’s slightly poorer ‘other half’, set north of the Roman Stane Street to Braintree’s south, with a higher proportion of social rented housing; the two communities were merged into a single local government unit back in 1934.
The Conservatives dominated the May 2021 Essex county council elections within this seat as well, winning all five divisions that are entirely within the constituency boundaries (including Bocking, by over two to one compared with Labour), but losing to the Greens in Braintree Town, of which despite its name only 41% of the electorate is in Braintree and 59% in the Witham parliamentary seat. As well as the Braintree-Bocking mini-conurbation, which has a population of around 55,000, there are several other distinct parts to the seat. Braintree, Bocking and Great Notley are currently right at its southern end. Around five miles to the north east lies the old market town of Halstead (14,000 in the 2021 census). Further north, even more historic, and in the geographic centre of the seat, is the large village of Castle Hedingham. In every direction from there one finds lush, prosperous countryside studded with villages – the impression is very similar to the vast majority of the Saffron Walden constituency. Here are Steeple Bumpstead in the northwestern corner of the constituency, Yeldham, Belchamp St Paul in the north east, and two river valleys recognised in the names of wards. Part of the Colne Valley (the Essex Colne, not the one with a famous electoral history in West Yorkshire) heads east from Halstead toward Colchester, and the Stour Valley, known for the paintings of John Constable and others, marks the northern boundary of Essex with Suffolk.
Originally, much of this territory was set to be removed from Braintree by the Boundary Commission. Halstead and all parts north was initially recommended to join parts of the present West Suffolk (the main donor by far), Bury St Edmunds and South Suffolk in a brand new Haverhill and Halstead constituency. This would have included well over half the acreage of the current Braintree, and 46% of its electorate. The remainder of Braintree would form the core of a seat of the same name, but would be augmented by wards from Saffron Walden, Witham and Maldon to become almost a Central or Mid Essex constituency. Saffron Walden would donate Broomfield & the Walthams, Boreham & the Leighs, Chelmsford Rural West and Writtle – all parts of Chelmsford borough, and indeed very much reaching the orbit of the Essex county town, especially in Writtle – which is sometimes regarded as in effect a suburb of Chelmsford. From Witham would come Hatfield Peverel and Terling, and Black Notley and White Notley to complete the set of Notleys. Finally, the proposed revised Braintree would stretch even further south to takes Little Baddow, Danbury and Sandon from the Maldon division. The result of all this would be that Braintree town, instead of being at the southern edge of its eponymous seat, would now be at the northern end.
However, in the November 2022 report of the Commission's revised proposals, confirmed in the final report in June 2023, they decided not to cross the Essex/Suffolk border after all, and adopted an alternative approach, suggested by the Liberal Democrats, which would produce much more minimal change, especially to Braintree. The 'Chelmsford' wards would no longer be taken from Saffron Walden, nor Hatfield Peverel & Terling from Witham, nor any villages from Maldon. Instead Braintree gained Felsted & Stebbing and The Sampfords from Saffron Walden. The Colnes ward is wholly in Witham.
In the most recent council elections in May 2023, as elsewhere throughout England, the Conservatives lost seats, eight net. Labour gained seven: within this constituency, one in Bocking South, three in Braintree Central & Beckers Green, one in Braintree South – though they lost one in Bocking North which meant that both Bocking wards were shared with the Tories (who held the three in the third Bocking ward, Blackwater). Overall, though, the Conservatives were still 14% ahead of Labour across the Braintree seat (on the new boundaries), even at this low point in their fortunes.
Despite the influence of the Liberal Democrats in the revised boundary change proposals, they would not seem to have a significant chance of actually winning a seat in this part of north Essex. Meanwhile, the notional results calculated by Professor Rallings and THrasher suggested a neutral effect between the two leading parties in this seat, with a 25% swing to Labour being needed to overturn a 25,000 Conservative majority. This proved too great a challenge even in the extreme circumstances of July 2024. Therefore, while Braintree may have helped (now Sir) Tony Blair enter government, Sir Keir Starmer found nothing to thank it for, even if he did increasingly decide to 'channel' Blair. Meanwhile James Cleverly was able to throw his hat into the ring for the vacancy at the top of the Conservative party even if, in autumn 2024, his own challenge ended in a somewhat mysterious and odd manner.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.6% 226/575
Owner occupied 69.8% 182/575
Private rented 15.3% 423/575
Social rented 14.9% 290/575
White 95.0% 189/575
Black 1.1% 312/575
Asian 1.6% 439/575
Managerial & professional 33.3% 270/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0% 278/575
Degree level 25.9% 472/575
Level 2 qualifications 17.0% 2/575
No qualifications 18.0% 267/575
Students 4.8% 428/575
General Election 2024: Braintree
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cleverly 17,414 35.5 −32.0
Labour Matthew Wright 13,744 28.0 +9.8
Reform UK Richard Thomson 11,346 23.1 N/A
Liberal Democrats Kieron Franks 2,879 5.9 −3.8
Green Paul Thorogood 2,878 5.9 +5.4
Independent David Heather 767 1.6 N/A
C Majority 3,670 7.5 −41.3
Turnout 49,028 63 −5.3
Registered electors 77,781
Conservative hold
Swing 20.9 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Braintree
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cleverly 34,112 67.5 +4.7
Labour Joshua Garfield 9,439 18.7 ―8.9
Liberal Democrats Dominic Graham 4,779 9.5 +5.2
Independent Jo Beavis 1,488 2.9 New
Independent David Mansell 420 0.8 New
Independent Alan Dorkins 261 0.5 New
C Majority 24,673 48.9 +13.6
2019 electorate 75,208
Turnout 50,499 67.1 ―2.4
Conservative hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Braintree will consist of
91.5% of Braintree
6.1% of Saffron Walden
2.8% of Witham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_050_Braintree_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
Braintree covers a very Conservative part of the country. In 2019 it was held by James Cleverly, later to become a senior member of the initial Truss Cabinet in September 2022, with a majority of 24,673 and a 67.5% share of the vote; this meant that the seat ranked 17th in the table of safe Conservative seats. There were actually five Essex seats with even larger percentage majorities in 2019, but Braintree’s result was still quite dramatic bearing in mind that Labour actually won here (on somewhat different boundaries) in 1997 and 2001. This is an indication of the broad geographical appeal attained by Tony Blair’s party in its early years, but it is also true that Braintree is socially and economically far from an elite constituency. On many of the key statistical indicators it lies in the middling ranges: on housing tenure, occupation, age structure and ethnic makeup it is typical of the nation as a whole. Yes, there are more builders than average; and yes, an unusually high proportion of its residents completed their educational qualifications with decent GCSEs at age 16, rather than going in to take degrees. But there is little in the demographic figures to explain why Braintree has become one of the safest Tory seats.
One reason lies in its response to a great issue in recent general elections. It is estimated that around 61.5% of electors in this seat voted to leave the EU in 2016. This figure is, of course, well above the national average – but it was surpassed in many parts of the east of England. Therein, however lies another clue. There are still important regional factors in British elections: consider the strength of Labour in Merseyside, for example regardless of the class, housing of educational variables within individual seats. Even controlling for Euroscepticism, East Anglia and Essex have proved increasingly fruitful ground for Conservatism over several decades; and population growth seems to have helped the Tories too. The general weakness of the Liberal Democrats and Greens in much of the region, including this area, also strengthens the Conservative dominance.
Although not particularly oversized at just over 75,000 electors, the Braintree constituency has a number of clear examples of new housing development, of which the most spectacular is Great Notley, almost entirely a 21st century creation and now housing 8,000 souls, situated just to the south west of Braintree itself. In the most recent district council elections, in May 2023, the top Conservative polled over 54% in the ward covering Great Notley compared with Labour’s 22%. This is not, however, an unusual pattern. In May 2019, for example, overall 26 Conservative councillors were elected within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat to just one for Labour – in Bocking North ward. Bocking has long been regarded as Braintree town’s slightly poorer ‘other half’, set north of the Roman Stane Street to Braintree’s south, with a higher proportion of social rented housing; the two communities were merged into a single local government unit back in 1934.
The Conservatives dominated the May 2021 Essex county council elections within this seat as well, winning all five divisions that are entirely within the constituency boundaries (including Bocking, by over two to one compared with Labour), but losing to the Greens in Braintree Town, of which despite its name only 41% of the electorate is in Braintree and 59% in the Witham parliamentary seat. As well as the Braintree-Bocking mini-conurbation, which has a population of around 55,000, there are several other distinct parts to the seat. Braintree, Bocking and Great Notley are currently right at its southern end. Around five miles to the north east lies the old market town of Halstead (14,000 in the 2021 census). Further north, even more historic, and in the geographic centre of the seat, is the large village of Castle Hedingham. In every direction from there one finds lush, prosperous countryside studded with villages – the impression is very similar to the vast majority of the Saffron Walden constituency. Here are Steeple Bumpstead in the northwestern corner of the constituency, Yeldham, Belchamp St Paul in the north east, and two river valleys recognised in the names of wards. Part of the Colne Valley (the Essex Colne, not the one with a famous electoral history in West Yorkshire) heads east from Halstead toward Colchester, and the Stour Valley, known for the paintings of John Constable and others, marks the northern boundary of Essex with Suffolk.
Originally, much of this territory was set to be removed from Braintree by the Boundary Commission. Halstead and all parts north was initially recommended to join parts of the present West Suffolk (the main donor by far), Bury St Edmunds and South Suffolk in a brand new Haverhill and Halstead constituency. This would have included well over half the acreage of the current Braintree, and 46% of its electorate. The remainder of Braintree would form the core of a seat of the same name, but would be augmented by wards from Saffron Walden, Witham and Maldon to become almost a Central or Mid Essex constituency. Saffron Walden would donate Broomfield & the Walthams, Boreham & the Leighs, Chelmsford Rural West and Writtle – all parts of Chelmsford borough, and indeed very much reaching the orbit of the Essex county town, especially in Writtle – which is sometimes regarded as in effect a suburb of Chelmsford. From Witham would come Hatfield Peverel and Terling, and Black Notley and White Notley to complete the set of Notleys. Finally, the proposed revised Braintree would stretch even further south to takes Little Baddow, Danbury and Sandon from the Maldon division. The result of all this would be that Braintree town, instead of being at the southern edge of its eponymous seat, would now be at the northern end.
However, in the November 2022 report of the Commission's revised proposals, confirmed in the final report in June 2023, they decided not to cross the Essex/Suffolk border after all, and adopted an alternative approach, suggested by the Liberal Democrats, which would produce much more minimal change, especially to Braintree. The 'Chelmsford' wards would no longer be taken from Saffron Walden, nor Hatfield Peverel & Terling from Witham, nor any villages from Maldon. Instead Braintree gained Felsted & Stebbing and The Sampfords from Saffron Walden. The Colnes ward is wholly in Witham.
In the most recent council elections in May 2023, as elsewhere throughout England, the Conservatives lost seats, eight net. Labour gained seven: within this constituency, one in Bocking South, three in Braintree Central & Beckers Green, one in Braintree South – though they lost one in Bocking North which meant that both Bocking wards were shared with the Tories (who held the three in the third Bocking ward, Blackwater). Overall, though, the Conservatives were still 14% ahead of Labour across the Braintree seat (on the new boundaries), even at this low point in their fortunes.
Despite the influence of the Liberal Democrats in the revised boundary change proposals, they would not seem to have a significant chance of actually winning a seat in this part of north Essex. Meanwhile, the notional results calculated by Professor Rallings and THrasher suggested a neutral effect between the two leading parties in this seat, with a 25% swing to Labour being needed to overturn a 25,000 Conservative majority. This proved too great a challenge even in the extreme circumstances of July 2024. Therefore, while Braintree may have helped (now Sir) Tony Blair enter government, Sir Keir Starmer found nothing to thank it for, even if he did increasingly decide to 'channel' Blair. Meanwhile James Cleverly was able to throw his hat into the ring for the vacancy at the top of the Conservative party even if, in autumn 2024, his own challenge ended in a somewhat mysterious and odd manner.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.6% 226/575
Owner occupied 69.8% 182/575
Private rented 15.3% 423/575
Social rented 14.9% 290/575
White 95.0% 189/575
Black 1.1% 312/575
Asian 1.6% 439/575
Managerial & professional 33.3% 270/575
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0% 278/575
Degree level 25.9% 472/575
Level 2 qualifications 17.0% 2/575
No qualifications 18.0% 267/575
Students 4.8% 428/575
General Election 2024: Braintree
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cleverly 17,414 35.5 −32.0
Labour Matthew Wright 13,744 28.0 +9.8
Reform UK Richard Thomson 11,346 23.1 N/A
Liberal Democrats Kieron Franks 2,879 5.9 −3.8
Green Paul Thorogood 2,878 5.9 +5.4
Independent David Heather 767 1.6 N/A
C Majority 3,670 7.5 −41.3
Turnout 49,028 63 −5.3
Registered electors 77,781
Conservative hold
Swing 20.9 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Braintree
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Cleverly 34,112 67.5 +4.7
Labour Joshua Garfield 9,439 18.7 ―8.9
Liberal Democrats Dominic Graham 4,779 9.5 +5.2
Independent Jo Beavis 1,488 2.9 New
Independent David Mansell 420 0.8 New
Independent Alan Dorkins 261 0.5 New
C Majority 24,673 48.9 +13.6
2019 electorate 75,208
Turnout 50,499 67.1 ―2.4
Conservative hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Braintree will consist of
91.5% of Braintree
6.1% of Saffron Walden
2.8% of Witham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_050_Braintree_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 34863 | 67.5% |
| Lab | 9397 | 18.2% |
| LD | 5013 | 9.7% |
| Grn | 233 | 0.5% |
| Oths | 2169 | 4.2% |
| Majority | 25466 | 49.3% |
