Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 12:09:43 GMT
The Hendon constituency dates back to 1997, prior to which there were two Hendon seats – North and South. This was not however a merger of these two seats as the greater part of Hendon South formed the ‘Golders Green’ section of the Finchley & Golders Green constituency with just two of the five wards joining the whole of Hendon North. This constituency can thus trace its lineage back to 1945 when the previous, giant Hendon county seat (which included areas now in Harrow and Brent as well as Hendon itself) was broken up into multiple parts.
Labour won the initial contest in 1945 rather easily but the Conservatives gained it in 1950 and held it continuously thereafter though it was never won by a large majority except in the 1980s. Similarly, Labour won the inaugural contest in this new seat in another great landslide in 1997 but the Conservatives gained it very narrowly in 2010 and have held it since, with the most recent election providing their most comfortable margin, though still far from overwhelming. Notwithstanding the huge pro-Labour swing in 1997, this is actually quite a low-swing seat and the reason for this is that it is very socially divided, containing large and distinct blocs of support for each of the main parties.
The wards are large here so most contain a certain amount of social variety themselves. Edgware ward in the far North is typically the safest Conservative ward – it is heavily Jewish and consists mostly of quite large detached properties. It does also include a couple of council estates though such as the Stone Grove estate, previously dominated by grim, decaying 1950s tower blocks. This has been redeveloped in friendlier style in recent years but is still deprived, though it is of course atypical of the ward in which it finds itself. Mill Hill contains areas of great wealth in Mill Hill village itself but also has pockets of social housing in Mill Hill East.
Overall though the communities of Edgware and Mill Hill are very affluent and middle-class and strongly Conservative.
The Labour counterbalance in Hendon North was provided by the area in the South West along the A5. There is not much social variety in Burnt Oak as it is dominated by the huge 1920s Watling estate – one of the LCCs cottage estates. Council house sales have obviously reduced the numbers socially renting here and in common with other such areas private renting is now very high. This is still a deprived area and now has a large Black population. It has always been and remains a solid Labour stronghold.
Colindale to the south is a no less of a Labour stronghold these days but has some more variety of housing types. The new Colindale North does include the vast, modern and grim council estate of Graham Park but South contains a good deal more private inter-war housing of mostly indifferent quality. There is also increasing new development of high-density flats on part of the site of the Metropolitan Police college here which is not likely to benefit the Conservatives much. These wards also have a very high proportion of both Black and Asian residents.
The two halves of Hendon North thus provided a balance which kept the contests close in most elections. Edgware and Mill Hill, predominantly affluent, owner occupied, strongly Jewish versus Burnt Oak and Colindale, poor, working class, with a large council house presence and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities.
The two wards brought in from Hendon South pretty well maintained this balance. Hendon ward is another mostly affluent area with a very large Jewish population and has always been a safe Conservative ward (though as in Edgware the ward is large enough to include pockets of council housing). West Hendon on the other hand shares more characteristics with Colindale. It is very ethnically diverse and down by the A5 contains dingy areas of terraced housing from before the First world war (most of the development in this constituency occurred in the inter-war years.) Also here was the bleak West Hendon estate which formed a curious salient to the West of the A5 (which otherwise forms the entire western boundary of the seat) but is in the process of being redeveloped.
On the other hand, the eastern part of the ward contained areas similar to Hendon Central, including a very affluent and very Jewish area around Hendon Park. As a result West Hendon was never as solidly Labour a ward as Burnt Oak and Colindale and though they held it fairly consistently for many decades the redevelopment (ie temporary depopulation) of the grotty Western part of the ward combined with Labour’s problems with the Jewish community enabled the Conservatives to win the ward at the local elections in 2018.
West Hendon was almost a microcosm of the constituency as a whole and the 2018 local elections presaged the problems Labour were likely to experience in the 2019 general election. Subsequent ward boundary changes removed the affluent Hendon Park area, and this is now more or less a safe Labour ward again.
The constituency itself is now subject to boundary changes. In the initial proposals these were sweeping and would have effectively broken up the seat but the revised and thereafter unchanged final proposals are more modest. Apart from realigning with new ward boundaries (which occasions the removal of the Millbrook Park area in Mill Hill East), this involves the removal of the new Edgwarebury ward to Chipping Barnet. This covers effectively the northern fringes of both Edgware and Mill Hill and as that suggests this is a more Conservative area than average. It does include the large Broadfields council estate but overall is more owner-occupied than average, more Jewish and more Conservative. It is not a Conservative stronghold evidently as they only just won it in the inaugural election in 2022, but win it they did at a time when they were losing badly across the borough and were behind Labour in the aggregate vote within this constituency. To put it another way, the Conservatives and Labour each won 4 wards and 11 councillors in the wards within the existing Hendon constituency. On the new boundaries this shifts to 4/3 and 11/9 in Labour's favour. Therefore, the removal of this ward makes this seat even more vulnerable.
This is now the constituency with the fourth highest Jewish proportion in the country, behind its neighbours Finchley & Golders Green and Hertsmere and Bury South (and down from 2nd in the 2011 census). But it is an exceptionally diverse constituency, and many other ethnic and religious groups are well represented here. It is also in the top 20 for Hindus and for Buddhists, for Chinese and for Arabs. The proportion of Muslims is not much lower than the proportion of Jews. Just over half the population is white, but a third of these are other than ‘White British’.
There is additionally a substantial student population, this being the home of Middlesex University.
It is certainly unusual for a seat of such ethnic diversity to be Conservative held these days and if Labour can make even a modest rapprochement with Jewish voters here they will be in a good position as the demographics of much of the constituency continue to drift broadly in their favour. They seem to be well on the way to doing that under Keir Starmer's leadership and on current polling it's hard to see other than a Labour gain.
Labour won the initial contest in 1945 rather easily but the Conservatives gained it in 1950 and held it continuously thereafter though it was never won by a large majority except in the 1980s. Similarly, Labour won the inaugural contest in this new seat in another great landslide in 1997 but the Conservatives gained it very narrowly in 2010 and have held it since, with the most recent election providing their most comfortable margin, though still far from overwhelming. Notwithstanding the huge pro-Labour swing in 1997, this is actually quite a low-swing seat and the reason for this is that it is very socially divided, containing large and distinct blocs of support for each of the main parties.
The wards are large here so most contain a certain amount of social variety themselves. Edgware ward in the far North is typically the safest Conservative ward – it is heavily Jewish and consists mostly of quite large detached properties. It does also include a couple of council estates though such as the Stone Grove estate, previously dominated by grim, decaying 1950s tower blocks. This has been redeveloped in friendlier style in recent years but is still deprived, though it is of course atypical of the ward in which it finds itself. Mill Hill contains areas of great wealth in Mill Hill village itself but also has pockets of social housing in Mill Hill East.
Overall though the communities of Edgware and Mill Hill are very affluent and middle-class and strongly Conservative.
The Labour counterbalance in Hendon North was provided by the area in the South West along the A5. There is not much social variety in Burnt Oak as it is dominated by the huge 1920s Watling estate – one of the LCCs cottage estates. Council house sales have obviously reduced the numbers socially renting here and in common with other such areas private renting is now very high. This is still a deprived area and now has a large Black population. It has always been and remains a solid Labour stronghold.
Colindale to the south is a no less of a Labour stronghold these days but has some more variety of housing types. The new Colindale North does include the vast, modern and grim council estate of Graham Park but South contains a good deal more private inter-war housing of mostly indifferent quality. There is also increasing new development of high-density flats on part of the site of the Metropolitan Police college here which is not likely to benefit the Conservatives much. These wards also have a very high proportion of both Black and Asian residents.
The two halves of Hendon North thus provided a balance which kept the contests close in most elections. Edgware and Mill Hill, predominantly affluent, owner occupied, strongly Jewish versus Burnt Oak and Colindale, poor, working class, with a large council house presence and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities.
The two wards brought in from Hendon South pretty well maintained this balance. Hendon ward is another mostly affluent area with a very large Jewish population and has always been a safe Conservative ward (though as in Edgware the ward is large enough to include pockets of council housing). West Hendon on the other hand shares more characteristics with Colindale. It is very ethnically diverse and down by the A5 contains dingy areas of terraced housing from before the First world war (most of the development in this constituency occurred in the inter-war years.) Also here was the bleak West Hendon estate which formed a curious salient to the West of the A5 (which otherwise forms the entire western boundary of the seat) but is in the process of being redeveloped.
On the other hand, the eastern part of the ward contained areas similar to Hendon Central, including a very affluent and very Jewish area around Hendon Park. As a result West Hendon was never as solidly Labour a ward as Burnt Oak and Colindale and though they held it fairly consistently for many decades the redevelopment (ie temporary depopulation) of the grotty Western part of the ward combined with Labour’s problems with the Jewish community enabled the Conservatives to win the ward at the local elections in 2018.
West Hendon was almost a microcosm of the constituency as a whole and the 2018 local elections presaged the problems Labour were likely to experience in the 2019 general election. Subsequent ward boundary changes removed the affluent Hendon Park area, and this is now more or less a safe Labour ward again.
The constituency itself is now subject to boundary changes. In the initial proposals these were sweeping and would have effectively broken up the seat but the revised and thereafter unchanged final proposals are more modest. Apart from realigning with new ward boundaries (which occasions the removal of the Millbrook Park area in Mill Hill East), this involves the removal of the new Edgwarebury ward to Chipping Barnet. This covers effectively the northern fringes of both Edgware and Mill Hill and as that suggests this is a more Conservative area than average. It does include the large Broadfields council estate but overall is more owner-occupied than average, more Jewish and more Conservative. It is not a Conservative stronghold evidently as they only just won it in the inaugural election in 2022, but win it they did at a time when they were losing badly across the borough and were behind Labour in the aggregate vote within this constituency. To put it another way, the Conservatives and Labour each won 4 wards and 11 councillors in the wards within the existing Hendon constituency. On the new boundaries this shifts to 4/3 and 11/9 in Labour's favour. Therefore, the removal of this ward makes this seat even more vulnerable.
This is now the constituency with the fourth highest Jewish proportion in the country, behind its neighbours Finchley & Golders Green and Hertsmere and Bury South (and down from 2nd in the 2011 census). But it is an exceptionally diverse constituency, and many other ethnic and religious groups are well represented here. It is also in the top 20 for Hindus and for Buddhists, for Chinese and for Arabs. The proportion of Muslims is not much lower than the proportion of Jews. Just over half the population is white, but a third of these are other than ‘White British’.
There is additionally a substantial student population, this being the home of Middlesex University.
It is certainly unusual for a seat of such ethnic diversity to be Conservative held these days and if Labour can make even a modest rapprochement with Jewish voters here they will be in a good position as the demographics of much of the constituency continue to drift broadly in their favour. They seem to be well on the way to doing that under Keir Starmer's leadership and on current polling it's hard to see other than a Labour gain.
