Post by Robert Waller on Sept 13, 2023 9:11:17 GMT
Huntingdonshire is – or was – a proper, ‘historic’ county. The first references to it come from the tenth century, and the medieval earldom of Huntingdon was associated for the best part of two centuries, as a southern outpost, with the royal family of Scotland – though this was disputed, as was much else, during the ‘anarchy’ of Stephen’s reign (1135-54). However it has not been treated with much respect during the last 60 years. First of all, in 1965 it was merged with another medieval legacy, the Soke of Peterborough. Then in 1974 both Huntingdonshire and the Soke, together with the Isle of Ely, were subsumed in a single Cambridgeshire, with a perhaps surprising lack of resistance. ‘Huntingdon’ survived as a mere lower tier district council; the ‘–shire’ was added back to the name in 1984, but that fooled few. Like Pluto in the solar system, the county had been thoroughly demoted.
At least Huntingdonshire survived as a parliamentary constituency until 1983. At that point its name was shortened because the endemic population growth caused by the attractiveness of much of eastern England to those seeking employment and housing had led to its electorate (93,862 in 1979, up 14,000 from 1974) far exceeding the target quota, and so parts of Huntingdonshire such as St Neots were transferred to the SW Cambridgeshire seat. By the time of the 1995 Boundary Commission report the number of voters had again ballooned to 92,900, second in the United Kingdom only to the exceptional case of the Isle of Wight. Therefore substantial sections of the Huntingdon constituency were included in the new and extra North West Cambridgeshire division, although in compensation the SW Cambridgeshire section was returned. Further boundary changes in 2010 were relatively minor.
Therefore the current Huntingdon seat in effect covers only the southern half of the historic county, with the northern parts such as those around Ramsey, Sawtry and Stilton currently still in NW Cambridgeshire. The main communities within the compact Huntingdon are St Neots (population 33,000 and rising at the time of the 2021 census), St Ives (not the better known Cornwall town, but actually larger at 17,000) and the twin towns of Huntingdon itself (25,000) and Godmanchester, just across the River Great Ouse, 8,000).The constituency also includes numerous villages such as Kimbolton in its north eastern corner, with its public school and castle, once the home of Catherine of Aragon in her divorced retirement, Great Stoughton, Buckden on the A1 (its George Hotel a very civilised pit stop), Great Paxton, Offord Cluny and the possibly politically appropriate Yelling. There is a substantial liquid element in the form of Grafham Water, like its counterpart in Rutland a reservoir and conservation area, in its case completed in 1965, and known for its great crested grebes, warty newts and even killer shrimps.
As far as local human wildlife is concerned, there have been a couple of well known MPs for Huntingdon. One was Oliver Cromwell, who was born in the town and represented it in the 1628 Parliament (though in this case Wikipedia is incorrect – in the Long Parliament of 1640 he represented Cambridge). A little less lethal, though maybe not in real life more boring, was John Major (1983-2001), whose out of London residence was in Great Stukeley. His Huntingdon constituents seem to have been as fond of him as most people who have actually met him are. In his finest hour, the surprise Conservative general election victory of 1992, Major’s majority reached a massive 36,230, which has not subsequently been surpassed by any Conservative MP (though in 1931 the Conservatives won both seats in the double member constituency of Brighton by over 62,000). Even in the catastrophic defeat of 1997, Major’s personal share held up remarkably well, his lead still being the largest of any of his party’s survivors, over 18,000 in a much reduced electorate.
Since John Major’s retirement from the Commons, his Tory successor Jonathan Djanogly has always won easily, his majority never dropping below 10,819, over the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and reaching 19,300 in 2015 and 2019, both with Labour in second place. However although safe in parliamentary terms Huntingdon does demonstrate local variations in council elections. In the most recent Huntingdonshire district contests in May 2022, for example, the Conservatives lost control for the first time since 1976. Their numbers went down from 29 to 22 out of 52. Four of their losses went to the St Neots Independent Group, and they lost to independents in St Ives East too. But the Tories also suffered from Liberal Democrat gains in Buckden, Fenstanton and St Ives South, where Labour also took one of their seats. Meanwhile the LDs retained their two councillors in Huntingdon East and three in Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbotts, and Labour their three in Huntingdon North, the most working class ward in the district, with over 35% social housing and over 43% in routine and semi routine occupations.
Overall, in the four main towns of the Huntingdon constituency the Tories held only two seats, in St Neots Eatons ward – and even there the St Neots Independent Barry Banks finished top of the poll. In the May 2021 Cambridgeshire county elections though, the Tories did win most of the divisions within the seat, including both in St Ives and Huntingdon North & Hartford (they may have been helped to some extent by the way some of these were drawn to include rural territory, though Hartford is a modern development contiguous with the town of Huntingdon). So the political temper of the seat as a whole is predominantly, but not overwhelmingly, Conservative.
Perhaps one of the reasons for this is the fluidity and continued growth of the population. A visit to any of the towns reveals the burgeoning peripheral private housing estates, often well connected to the road infrastructure – the A1 and A428 ringing St Neots/Eynesbury, the A141 at Huntingdon, the A1198 at Godmanchester. The town centres have some history about them, but much of the housing is interchangeable and characterless sprawl. St Neots had a population of less than 5,000 in 1961, and is scheduled to reach 65,000 by 2040. Typical of its expansion in the 21st century is the Love’s Farm development east of the railway and station, and the very latest is Wintringham Park to the south east between the railway and the A428. wintringham.org/our-story/ Huntingdon has doubled since 1971, St Ives more than doubled since that date. This has of course been reflected in the frequent parliamentary boundary changes, and is about to do so again.
In the current review, Cambridgeshire gains an extra seat. Huntingdon has yet again expanded well beyond the quota, to 85,109 in the figures to be used by the Boundary Commission. It has been proposed that about 62% of Huntingdon will remain in a seat of the same name, topped up with just under a quarter of the even more oversized NW Cambridgeshire (95,684), these being the restoration of the Huntingdonshire wards of Holywell-cum-Needingworth, Sawtry, Somersham, and Warboys– all returning slates of Conservative councillors in the May 2022 Huntingdonshire elections, the first two unopposed. However the remaining 38% of Huntingdon, principally St Neots and Fenstanton, are to be combined with substantial chunks of both South Cambridgeshire and South East Cambridgeshire to form a new constituency to be named (after the publication of the revised Commission report in November 2022) St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire – it includes the ‘new town’ of Cambourne and extends almost to Cambridge in the form of Girton village. Huntingdon constituency has therefore moved its centre of gravity to cover a more northerly part of the former historical county.
Both the new Huntingdon (in effect West Cambridgeshire as currently constituted) and St Neots & Mid Cambs (the SW quadrant of that county) were expected as least to start as safely Conservative, with notional 2019 majorities of around 19,000 and 15,000 respectively – the difference is accounted for by the fact that while the St Neots based seat does not take the parts of South Cambridgeshire where the Liberal Democrats are at their very strongest, they still won most of the wards to be included in May 2022. Based on the evidence of local elections as well as the rapid change and growth, one feels though that it these slices of modern England the Conservatives may at some point be vulnerable as the opposition becomes more competitive in parliamentary terms than it was in 2019, though in all probability not in the immediate future. In July 2024 Labour benefited from a swing of nearly 18% from the Tories, but the new candidate Ben Obese-Jecty still managed to hold on by just over a thousand votes.
One thing though is certain. A victim of its own success in attracting new residents, Huntingdonshire can never be reconstituted as a single unit in the Commons. Once historic, the county is now as sustained an example of the 21st century direction England seems to be taking as any part of the land.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.1% 244/575
Owner occupied 69.9% 179/575
Private rented 17.5% 319/575
Social rented 12.6% 404/575
White 91.2% 275/575
Black 1.8% 250/575
Asian 3.9% 303/575
Managerial & professional 39.8% 113/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.8% 349/575
Degree level 35.0% 206/575
No qualifications 15.2% 414/575
Students 4.5% 502/575
General Election 2024: Huntingdon
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Obese-Jecty 18,257 35.1 –24.1
Labour Alex Bulat 16,758 32.2 +11.4
Reform UK Sarah Smith 8,039 15.4 N/A
Liberal Democrats Mark Argent 4,821 9.3 –4.7
Green Georgie Hunt 3,042 5.8 +2.3
Independent Chan Raj Abraham 1,123 2.2 N/A
C Majority 1,499 2.9 –35.5
Turnout 52,234 66.1 –8.4
Registered electors 79,074
Conservative hold
Swing 17.8 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Huntingdon
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 32,386 54.8 ―0.3
Labour Samuel Sweek 13,003 22.0 ―8.9
Liberal Democrats Mark Argent 9,432 15.9 +7.4
Green Daniel Laycock 2,233 3.8 +2.0
Independent Paul Bullen 1,789 3.0 New
Independent Tom Varghese 304 0.5 New
C Majority 19,383 32.8 +8.6
2019 Electorate 84,657
Turnout 59,147 69.9 ―0.9
Conservative hold Swing +4.3
Boundary Changes
The new Huntingdon will consist of
61.7% of Huntingdon
24.1% of NW Cambridgeshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_072_Huntingdon_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
At least Huntingdonshire survived as a parliamentary constituency until 1983. At that point its name was shortened because the endemic population growth caused by the attractiveness of much of eastern England to those seeking employment and housing had led to its electorate (93,862 in 1979, up 14,000 from 1974) far exceeding the target quota, and so parts of Huntingdonshire such as St Neots were transferred to the SW Cambridgeshire seat. By the time of the 1995 Boundary Commission report the number of voters had again ballooned to 92,900, second in the United Kingdom only to the exceptional case of the Isle of Wight. Therefore substantial sections of the Huntingdon constituency were included in the new and extra North West Cambridgeshire division, although in compensation the SW Cambridgeshire section was returned. Further boundary changes in 2010 were relatively minor.
Therefore the current Huntingdon seat in effect covers only the southern half of the historic county, with the northern parts such as those around Ramsey, Sawtry and Stilton currently still in NW Cambridgeshire. The main communities within the compact Huntingdon are St Neots (population 33,000 and rising at the time of the 2021 census), St Ives (not the better known Cornwall town, but actually larger at 17,000) and the twin towns of Huntingdon itself (25,000) and Godmanchester, just across the River Great Ouse, 8,000).The constituency also includes numerous villages such as Kimbolton in its north eastern corner, with its public school and castle, once the home of Catherine of Aragon in her divorced retirement, Great Stoughton, Buckden on the A1 (its George Hotel a very civilised pit stop), Great Paxton, Offord Cluny and the possibly politically appropriate Yelling. There is a substantial liquid element in the form of Grafham Water, like its counterpart in Rutland a reservoir and conservation area, in its case completed in 1965, and known for its great crested grebes, warty newts and even killer shrimps.
As far as local human wildlife is concerned, there have been a couple of well known MPs for Huntingdon. One was Oliver Cromwell, who was born in the town and represented it in the 1628 Parliament (though in this case Wikipedia is incorrect – in the Long Parliament of 1640 he represented Cambridge). A little less lethal, though maybe not in real life more boring, was John Major (1983-2001), whose out of London residence was in Great Stukeley. His Huntingdon constituents seem to have been as fond of him as most people who have actually met him are. In his finest hour, the surprise Conservative general election victory of 1992, Major’s majority reached a massive 36,230, which has not subsequently been surpassed by any Conservative MP (though in 1931 the Conservatives won both seats in the double member constituency of Brighton by over 62,000). Even in the catastrophic defeat of 1997, Major’s personal share held up remarkably well, his lead still being the largest of any of his party’s survivors, over 18,000 in a much reduced electorate.
Since John Major’s retirement from the Commons, his Tory successor Jonathan Djanogly has always won easily, his majority never dropping below 10,819, over the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and reaching 19,300 in 2015 and 2019, both with Labour in second place. However although safe in parliamentary terms Huntingdon does demonstrate local variations in council elections. In the most recent Huntingdonshire district contests in May 2022, for example, the Conservatives lost control for the first time since 1976. Their numbers went down from 29 to 22 out of 52. Four of their losses went to the St Neots Independent Group, and they lost to independents in St Ives East too. But the Tories also suffered from Liberal Democrat gains in Buckden, Fenstanton and St Ives South, where Labour also took one of their seats. Meanwhile the LDs retained their two councillors in Huntingdon East and three in Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbotts, and Labour their three in Huntingdon North, the most working class ward in the district, with over 35% social housing and over 43% in routine and semi routine occupations.
Overall, in the four main towns of the Huntingdon constituency the Tories held only two seats, in St Neots Eatons ward – and even there the St Neots Independent Barry Banks finished top of the poll. In the May 2021 Cambridgeshire county elections though, the Tories did win most of the divisions within the seat, including both in St Ives and Huntingdon North & Hartford (they may have been helped to some extent by the way some of these were drawn to include rural territory, though Hartford is a modern development contiguous with the town of Huntingdon). So the political temper of the seat as a whole is predominantly, but not overwhelmingly, Conservative.
Perhaps one of the reasons for this is the fluidity and continued growth of the population. A visit to any of the towns reveals the burgeoning peripheral private housing estates, often well connected to the road infrastructure – the A1 and A428 ringing St Neots/Eynesbury, the A141 at Huntingdon, the A1198 at Godmanchester. The town centres have some history about them, but much of the housing is interchangeable and characterless sprawl. St Neots had a population of less than 5,000 in 1961, and is scheduled to reach 65,000 by 2040. Typical of its expansion in the 21st century is the Love’s Farm development east of the railway and station, and the very latest is Wintringham Park to the south east between the railway and the A428. wintringham.org/our-story/ Huntingdon has doubled since 1971, St Ives more than doubled since that date. This has of course been reflected in the frequent parliamentary boundary changes, and is about to do so again.
In the current review, Cambridgeshire gains an extra seat. Huntingdon has yet again expanded well beyond the quota, to 85,109 in the figures to be used by the Boundary Commission. It has been proposed that about 62% of Huntingdon will remain in a seat of the same name, topped up with just under a quarter of the even more oversized NW Cambridgeshire (95,684), these being the restoration of the Huntingdonshire wards of Holywell-cum-Needingworth, Sawtry, Somersham, and Warboys– all returning slates of Conservative councillors in the May 2022 Huntingdonshire elections, the first two unopposed. However the remaining 38% of Huntingdon, principally St Neots and Fenstanton, are to be combined with substantial chunks of both South Cambridgeshire and South East Cambridgeshire to form a new constituency to be named (after the publication of the revised Commission report in November 2022) St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire – it includes the ‘new town’ of Cambourne and extends almost to Cambridge in the form of Girton village. Huntingdon constituency has therefore moved its centre of gravity to cover a more northerly part of the former historical county.
Both the new Huntingdon (in effect West Cambridgeshire as currently constituted) and St Neots & Mid Cambs (the SW quadrant of that county) were expected as least to start as safely Conservative, with notional 2019 majorities of around 19,000 and 15,000 respectively – the difference is accounted for by the fact that while the St Neots based seat does not take the parts of South Cambridgeshire where the Liberal Democrats are at their very strongest, they still won most of the wards to be included in May 2022. Based on the evidence of local elections as well as the rapid change and growth, one feels though that it these slices of modern England the Conservatives may at some point be vulnerable as the opposition becomes more competitive in parliamentary terms than it was in 2019, though in all probability not in the immediate future. In July 2024 Labour benefited from a swing of nearly 18% from the Tories, but the new candidate Ben Obese-Jecty still managed to hold on by just over a thousand votes.
One thing though is certain. A victim of its own success in attracting new residents, Huntingdonshire can never be reconstituted as a single unit in the Commons. Once historic, the county is now as sustained an example of the 21st century direction England seems to be taking as any part of the land.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.1% 244/575
Owner occupied 69.9% 179/575
Private rented 17.5% 319/575
Social rented 12.6% 404/575
White 91.2% 275/575
Black 1.8% 250/575
Asian 3.9% 303/575
Managerial & professional 39.8% 113/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.8% 349/575
Degree level 35.0% 206/575
No qualifications 15.2% 414/575
Students 4.5% 502/575
General Election 2024: Huntingdon
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Obese-Jecty 18,257 35.1 –24.1
Labour Alex Bulat 16,758 32.2 +11.4
Reform UK Sarah Smith 8,039 15.4 N/A
Liberal Democrats Mark Argent 4,821 9.3 –4.7
Green Georgie Hunt 3,042 5.8 +2.3
Independent Chan Raj Abraham 1,123 2.2 N/A
C Majority 1,499 2.9 –35.5
Turnout 52,234 66.1 –8.4
Registered electors 79,074
Conservative hold
Swing 17.8 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Huntingdon
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 32,386 54.8 ―0.3
Labour Samuel Sweek 13,003 22.0 ―8.9
Liberal Democrats Mark Argent 9,432 15.9 +7.4
Green Daniel Laycock 2,233 3.8 +2.0
Independent Paul Bullen 1,789 3.0 New
Independent Tom Varghese 304 0.5 New
C Majority 19,383 32.8 +8.6
2019 Electorate 84,657
Turnout 59,147 69.9 ―0.9
Conservative hold Swing +4.3
Boundary Changes
The new Huntingdon will consist of
61.7% of Huntingdon
24.1% of NW Cambridgeshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_072_Huntingdon_Landscape.pdf
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 33352 | 59.2% |
| Lab | 11707 | 20.8% |
| LD | 7899 | 14.0% |
| Grn | 1952 | 3.5% |
| Oths | 1407 | 2.5% |
| Majority | 21645 | 38.4% |
