Post by Robert Waller on Sept 12, 2023 20:09:27 GMT
In the December 2019 general election, this was not only the easternmost but the safest seat in Surrey – that is, for the Conservative party, who hold all 11 constituencies in the county as it is currently defined. However, the county-wide picture is not quite as monolithic as it may appear, despite Surrey’s reputation as the archetype of the affluent Home Counties or outer-London-suburbs. For a start, some of the Surrey seats were genuine contests in the 2019 general election, with Esher & Walton and Guildford rightly regarded as marginals with an uncertain outcome. What is more, even East Surrey’s very comfortable percentage majority only just makes the list of the 100 largest in Britain.
The reason is pretty much the same in all cases: the Liberal Democrats advanced in every Surrey constituency, in some cases substantially and threateningly. Even in East Surrey they nearly doubled their share, from 10% in 2017 to 19%. In turn, the main reason for the Lib Dem advance is the existence of a significant ‘Remain in the EU’ opinion in the county. The 46% estimated in East Surrey, though only just below the national average, is low for the county, which helps to explain the relatively easy win here, though it should also be noted that the East Surrey MP from 2010 to 2019, Sam Gyimah, actually defected to the Liberal Democrats over the Brexit issue. He tried his luck in the Kensington constituency, where he finished third and was accused by some Labour supporters of splitting the Remain vote there and allowing the Conservatives to regain narrowly. That he did not stay here to reap any possible incumbency advantage says much about the potential strength of the Liberal Democrat challenge in this seat.
The East Surrey constituency is mainly based on the local government District of Tandridge, which has only existed since the 1974 reorganisation, but which is also the name of an ancient Hundred. Unlike Bassetlaw and Rushliffe in Nottinghamshire, the parliamentary seat has never followed by being called Tandridge, which is perhaps a defeat for romantics but prosaically describes the location more comprehensibly. The largest community in Tandridge is Caterham, a town generally divided between its hill and valley sections, and formerly notable for a large Army barracks, now the site of new housing. The seat, here largely linked by the A25, runs past Warlingham and Woldingham towards the Kent border beyond the towns of Oxted (childhood home of Sir Keir Starmer) and Lingfield (as in the racecourse) eventually reaching the county boundary just west of Westerham. As the hill/valley distinction in Caterham suggests, much of the seat lies along the ridges and hollows of the North Downs. However Tandridge is not large enough to justify a constituency of its own, and in fact the largest community currently in the seat is borrowed from the borough of Reigate & Banstead. This is Horley, population over 22,000, which very much lies in the orbit of Gatwick Airport, and is situated between Redhill and Crawley, neither of them in the East Surrey seat. Thus Horley has something of a detached feel, ‘making up the numbers’.
It really is going to be detached in the imminent boundary changes, as the Commission has decided to move it to join the majority of the existing Mole Valley in a new Dorking & Horley constituency. However the Tandridge council area is still not populous for a seat of its own, so East Surrey will now gain the Hooley, Merstham & Netherne ward from Reigate and Banstead District and Reigate constituency. This ward has 7,826 electors, though Hooley itself is only a village of scarcely more than a thousand souls. Therefore Hooley for Horley is scarcely a like for like replacement.
More significant in the newly gained territory are the other two elements in that ward, principally Merstham, which includes one of the two pockets of social housing of any size at present in the Reigate seat (the other is Preston near Tadworth). However the overspill estate in the eastern part of Merstham is an untypical minority even of Merstham itself, a flavour of which is given by its village centre and golf and cricket clubs located in its west end just off the aptly named Quality Street. Netherne is a planned community of a very different kind, private housing built on the extensive site of the hospital which was formerly the massive Surrey County Asylum. The Hooley, Merstham & Netherne ward was decisively gained by the Greens from the Conservatives in the most recent council election in May 2023, but it is not a large enough addition to determine the future of the East Surrey division..
In the May 2019 local elections, preceding the general election by seven months, the Conservatives actually did much better in Horley than in Tandridge. They took all nine Horley ward councillors in the all-out Reigate and Banstead elections. In Tandridge, however, as in several other Surrey districts, the Tories did poorly, losing out both to a variety of independents and local residents groups and to the Liberal Democrats. For example the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group won all three wards they contested, Godstone was swept by a ‘No Description’ who got 73% despite being opposed by four party label candidates, and the Lib Dems took two Caterham wards as well as Warlingham East, Chelsham & Farleigh (they also won both Caterham Valley in the 2021 Surrey county council elections). In all the Tories took just 4 of the 14 wards in Tandridge in May 2019. Overall they then had only a third of the 42 councillors, which was therefore thoroughly under no overall control.
May 2023 was a fairly disastrous year for the Conservatives in local elections in many parts of the country, losing just over 1,000 council seats net, but Surrey may well have seen their worst results of all. Reigate and Banstead was the only council left under their control; they lost every contest in Woking, they lost 12 out of 18 contests in Surrey Heath, held three out of ten in Mole Valley – and won only two wards in Tandridge (Chaldon near Caterham, and Lingfield & Crowhurst, actually a gain from the Indies if by only 4 votes) compared with three for the Residents, three for the Liberal Democrats and six for various Independents. Thus the Conservatives’ municipal position is at ts weakest ever in Tandridge (36-37 councillors between 1976-83 and 33-34 between 2008 and 2016, but below 20 since 2019 and now in single figures), and indeed in Surrey as a whole. Tories are now a small and endangered minority on almost all the district and borough councils.
It is still likely that the same will not apply to the East Surrey parliamentary seat. While not breaking any records, owner-occupation, managerial occupation (especially ‘lower managerial’ and ‘intermediate’) and measures of affluence such as car ownership are all well above average, and unemployment well below. Importantly in an era when high terminal educational ages are not at all correlated with Conservative support, in the 2021 Census there is a lower proportion with degrees than any other seat in Surrey except Spelthorne (which some would say is not really in Surrey at all, being entirely on the ‘Middlesex’ side of the Thames).
Labour has not claimed a single councillor in Tandridge since the Blair years, so Keir Starmer is unlikely to include the MP for his place or origin among the serried ranks behind him if he does become Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats have more of a local government base to work with, but there is a strong suspicion that the independents and residents who are so strong in Tandridge do mainly express a Conservative allegiance as far as general elections are concerned. The ‘east end’ of many cities and towns in Britain are less Conservative than the west ends, generally because of the prevailing wind, but that definitely does not apply to the constituencies within the county of Surrey. This eastern division may well again record their best result next time; though that may not actually be saying very much, in a county which was once regarded as a true-blue heartland.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.0% 247/575
Owner occupied 74.8% 60/575
Private rented 13.2% 523/575
Social rented 12.0% 429/575
White 88.6 % 314/575
Black 2.5% 205/575
Asian 4.0% 297/575
Managerial & professional 43.0% 68/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.1% 525/575
Degree level 37.3% 159/575
No qualifications 13.8% 475/575
Students 5.3% 337/575
General Election 2019: East Surrey
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Claire Coutinho 35,624 59.7 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Alexander Ehmann 11,584 19.4 +8.9
Labour Frances Rehal 8,247 13.8 -5.4
Green Joseph Booton 2,340 3.9 -2.1
Independent Helena Windsor 1,374 2.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Martin Hogbin 521 0.9 N/A
C Majority 24,040 -0.1
Turnout 59,925 72.1 -2.8
Conservative hold
Swing C to LD 4.5
Boundary Changes
East Surrey will consist of
78.0% of East Surrey
(The other 22.0% goes to Dorking & Horley)
10.5% of Reigate
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_310_East%20Surrey_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings &Thrasher)
The reason is pretty much the same in all cases: the Liberal Democrats advanced in every Surrey constituency, in some cases substantially and threateningly. Even in East Surrey they nearly doubled their share, from 10% in 2017 to 19%. In turn, the main reason for the Lib Dem advance is the existence of a significant ‘Remain in the EU’ opinion in the county. The 46% estimated in East Surrey, though only just below the national average, is low for the county, which helps to explain the relatively easy win here, though it should also be noted that the East Surrey MP from 2010 to 2019, Sam Gyimah, actually defected to the Liberal Democrats over the Brexit issue. He tried his luck in the Kensington constituency, where he finished third and was accused by some Labour supporters of splitting the Remain vote there and allowing the Conservatives to regain narrowly. That he did not stay here to reap any possible incumbency advantage says much about the potential strength of the Liberal Democrat challenge in this seat.
The East Surrey constituency is mainly based on the local government District of Tandridge, which has only existed since the 1974 reorganisation, but which is also the name of an ancient Hundred. Unlike Bassetlaw and Rushliffe in Nottinghamshire, the parliamentary seat has never followed by being called Tandridge, which is perhaps a defeat for romantics but prosaically describes the location more comprehensibly. The largest community in Tandridge is Caterham, a town generally divided between its hill and valley sections, and formerly notable for a large Army barracks, now the site of new housing. The seat, here largely linked by the A25, runs past Warlingham and Woldingham towards the Kent border beyond the towns of Oxted (childhood home of Sir Keir Starmer) and Lingfield (as in the racecourse) eventually reaching the county boundary just west of Westerham. As the hill/valley distinction in Caterham suggests, much of the seat lies along the ridges and hollows of the North Downs. However Tandridge is not large enough to justify a constituency of its own, and in fact the largest community currently in the seat is borrowed from the borough of Reigate & Banstead. This is Horley, population over 22,000, which very much lies in the orbit of Gatwick Airport, and is situated between Redhill and Crawley, neither of them in the East Surrey seat. Thus Horley has something of a detached feel, ‘making up the numbers’.
It really is going to be detached in the imminent boundary changes, as the Commission has decided to move it to join the majority of the existing Mole Valley in a new Dorking & Horley constituency. However the Tandridge council area is still not populous for a seat of its own, so East Surrey will now gain the Hooley, Merstham & Netherne ward from Reigate and Banstead District and Reigate constituency. This ward has 7,826 electors, though Hooley itself is only a village of scarcely more than a thousand souls. Therefore Hooley for Horley is scarcely a like for like replacement.
More significant in the newly gained territory are the other two elements in that ward, principally Merstham, which includes one of the two pockets of social housing of any size at present in the Reigate seat (the other is Preston near Tadworth). However the overspill estate in the eastern part of Merstham is an untypical minority even of Merstham itself, a flavour of which is given by its village centre and golf and cricket clubs located in its west end just off the aptly named Quality Street. Netherne is a planned community of a very different kind, private housing built on the extensive site of the hospital which was formerly the massive Surrey County Asylum. The Hooley, Merstham & Netherne ward was decisively gained by the Greens from the Conservatives in the most recent council election in May 2023, but it is not a large enough addition to determine the future of the East Surrey division..
In the May 2019 local elections, preceding the general election by seven months, the Conservatives actually did much better in Horley than in Tandridge. They took all nine Horley ward councillors in the all-out Reigate and Banstead elections. In Tandridge, however, as in several other Surrey districts, the Tories did poorly, losing out both to a variety of independents and local residents groups and to the Liberal Democrats. For example the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group won all three wards they contested, Godstone was swept by a ‘No Description’ who got 73% despite being opposed by four party label candidates, and the Lib Dems took two Caterham wards as well as Warlingham East, Chelsham & Farleigh (they also won both Caterham Valley in the 2021 Surrey county council elections). In all the Tories took just 4 of the 14 wards in Tandridge in May 2019. Overall they then had only a third of the 42 councillors, which was therefore thoroughly under no overall control.
May 2023 was a fairly disastrous year for the Conservatives in local elections in many parts of the country, losing just over 1,000 council seats net, but Surrey may well have seen their worst results of all. Reigate and Banstead was the only council left under their control; they lost every contest in Woking, they lost 12 out of 18 contests in Surrey Heath, held three out of ten in Mole Valley – and won only two wards in Tandridge (Chaldon near Caterham, and Lingfield & Crowhurst, actually a gain from the Indies if by only 4 votes) compared with three for the Residents, three for the Liberal Democrats and six for various Independents. Thus the Conservatives’ municipal position is at ts weakest ever in Tandridge (36-37 councillors between 1976-83 and 33-34 between 2008 and 2016, but below 20 since 2019 and now in single figures), and indeed in Surrey as a whole. Tories are now a small and endangered minority on almost all the district and borough councils.
It is still likely that the same will not apply to the East Surrey parliamentary seat. While not breaking any records, owner-occupation, managerial occupation (especially ‘lower managerial’ and ‘intermediate’) and measures of affluence such as car ownership are all well above average, and unemployment well below. Importantly in an era when high terminal educational ages are not at all correlated with Conservative support, in the 2021 Census there is a lower proportion with degrees than any other seat in Surrey except Spelthorne (which some would say is not really in Surrey at all, being entirely on the ‘Middlesex’ side of the Thames).
Labour has not claimed a single councillor in Tandridge since the Blair years, so Keir Starmer is unlikely to include the MP for his place or origin among the serried ranks behind him if he does become Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats have more of a local government base to work with, but there is a strong suspicion that the independents and residents who are so strong in Tandridge do mainly express a Conservative allegiance as far as general elections are concerned. The ‘east end’ of many cities and towns in Britain are less Conservative than the west ends, generally because of the prevailing wind, but that definitely does not apply to the constituencies within the county of Surrey. This eastern division may well again record their best result next time; though that may not actually be saying very much, in a county which was once regarded as a true-blue heartland.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.0% 247/575
Owner occupied 74.8% 60/575
Private rented 13.2% 523/575
Social rented 12.0% 429/575
White 88.6 % 314/575
Black 2.5% 205/575
Asian 4.0% 297/575
Managerial & professional 43.0% 68/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.1% 525/575
Degree level 37.3% 159/575
No qualifications 13.8% 475/575
Students 5.3% 337/575
General Election 2019: East Surrey
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Claire Coutinho 35,624 59.7 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Alexander Ehmann 11,584 19.4 +8.9
Labour Frances Rehal 8,247 13.8 -5.4
Green Joseph Booton 2,340 3.9 -2.1
Independent Helena Windsor 1,374 2.3 N/A
Monster Raving Loony Martin Hogbin 521 0.9 N/A
C Majority 24,040 -0.1
Turnout 59,925 72.1 -2.8
Conservative hold
Swing C to LD 4.5
Boundary Changes
East Surrey will consist of
78.0% of East Surrey
(The other 22.0% goes to Dorking & Horley)
10.5% of Reigate
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_310_East%20Surrey_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings &Thrasher)
| Con | 31063 | 60.4% |
| LD | 10498 | 20.4% |
| Lab | 6787 | 13.2% |
| Grn | 1534 | 3.0% |
| Oths | 1593 | 3.1% |
| Majority | 20565 | 40.0% |